POLL: Which team is better-off after a 0-0 in the first leg of a two-leg tie?

[BaseFishing]

The first-leg home team will get the second-leg advantage of going through in the case of a score draw, giving them the better position in terms of results.

The first-let away team gets to play at home in the second-leg, giving them the home advantage to get a win in the match.

Personally, I'd rather be the first than the second. Going through in a score draw seems like the better deal. Thoughts?

 

[2 man midfield]

I’d rather be the away side.

It’s basically a totally even game, except your goals count for more.

 

[Tommy]

Depends entirely on the two teams.

 

[charlenefan]

0-0 in the first leg definitely favours the home side in that first game

 

[Red Star One]

I’d rather have us as an away team in the second game, but it depends on a team I believe. If we played Barça and drew 0-0 at Camp Nou with Jose still in charge, I could imagine him (and me as well) quite happy with the result.

 

[Cutch]

Read somewhere yesterday that 2/3 of the time the away team in the first leg after a 0-0 goes through

 

[redshaw]

Tend to go with the away side and also the home team will be shit scared of conceding. Always offers the away side a chance of turning the game on its head just by drawing.

 

[MTF]

I thought about this last night too. I think I'd prefer to be the home side, since your challenge now is basically to win a home game. But obviously its a thin margin given that nearly all tied results favor the away team.

Mathematically the question is 'do you have 50% chance or better of winning a home tie?'

 

[SadlerMUFC]

I hate the away goal rule. I understand why it was made, but it doesn't make sense to me. Liverpool can now go to Germany and tie 1-1 and win on away goals. How can a team progress when there hasn't been a winner or a loser? For me, if it's 0-0 and then 1-1, then the score is tied and extra time is needed. I also think that the away goal rule should be scrapped in extra time...

 

[Siorac]

The two most frequent outcomes of a Champions League knockout tie since abolishing the second group stage were the following:

- 0-0 in the first leg, 1-0 home win in the second leg
- 1-1 in the first leg, 1-2 away win in the second leg (this is a bit surprising)

Overall, in the history of the competition, around 67% (I don't know the exact number because the different sources are from different times) of the time the team that plays at home after a 0-0 in the first leg ends up going through.

So the numbers clearly suggest it favours the team that is home in the second leg.

 

[DJ Jeff]

I hate the away goal rule. I understand why it was made, but it doesn't make sense to me. Liverpool can now go to Germany and tie 1-1 and win on away goals. How can a team progress when there hasn't been a winner or a loser? For me, if it's 0-0 and then 1-1, then the score is tied and extra time is needed. I also think that the away goal rule should be scrapped in extra time...

I think the hope was to make away teams go for more goals and make things better. Which in fairness it sometimes does, and other times it makes the home team more cautious of conceding and leads to cagey games.

 

[shamans]

I hate the away goal rule. I understand why it was made, but it doesn't make sense to me. Liverpool can now go to Germany and tie 1-1 and win on away goals. How can a team progress when there hasn't been a winner or a loser? For me, if it's 0-0 and then 1-1, then the score is tied and extra time is needed. I also think that the away goal rule should be scrapped in extra time...

Away goals are great and makes the home and away fixtures so important.

 

[CM]

It depends on how confident you are of being able to get an away goal and a result. Both games finished 0-0 yesterday but I think Lyon are far less likely to progress than Liverpool are.

 

[Siorac]

Away goals are great and makes the home and away fixtures so important.

So the home and away fixtures are not important without away goals? Is there some secret game played at a neutral ground?

 

[Peyroteo]

Home advantage is a bigger advantage than having a score draw go your way imo.

It’s close to 50-50 if the teams are evenly matched.

 

[Mb194dc]

I think the hope was to make away teams go for more goals and make things better. Which in fairness it sometimes does, and other times it makes the home team more cautious of conceding and leads to cagey games.

Was thinking about this. Maybe away goals rule made more sense when the teams were more evenly balanced. When one team is much stronger, in the first leg there is a big inventive for the home team to defend like Lyon did yesterday for the last 30+ minutes. Now they go to the Nou Camp happy and knowing they can make things difficult for Barcelona if they score the first goal. Without away goals surely they would have come and played more football in the second half?

Overall if 0-0 is good depends on the team. Liverpool have been woeful away from home in Europe recently, so Bayern probably 70/30 to go through now.

 

[Rood]

I remember being at the Bernabeu in 1999/00 and being happy that we came away with 0-0

then they beat us home

 

[Pagh Wraith]

The two most frequent outcomes of a Champions League knockout tie since abolishing the second group stage were the following:

- 0-0 in the first leg, 1-0 home win in the second leg
- 1-1 in the first leg, 1-2 away win in the second leg (this is a bit surprising)

Overall, in the history of the competition, around 67% (I don't know the exact number because the different sources are from different times) of the time the team that plays at home after a 0-0 in the first leg ends up going through.

So the numbers clearly suggest it favours the team that is home in the second leg.

As we said in the other thread this completely ignores the fact that the stronger team plays away first in the round of 16 which renders the data meaningless.

To answer the question. If a much weaker team gets a 0-0 in the first leg away then their chances of progressing go up. If the stronger team achieves the same, their chances go down. If two equal teams play out a 0-0, then nothing changes. With the away goal rule in place, 0-0 is the most neutral of all scorelines.

 

[lysglimt]

I hate the away goal rule. I understand why it was made, but it doesn't make sense to me. Liverpool can now go to Germany and tie 1-1 and win on away goals. How can a team progress when there hasn't been a winner or a loser? For me, if it's 0-0 and then 1-1, then the score is tied and extra time is needed. I also think that the away goal rule should be scrapped in extra time...

Without the away-goal, it will always be a huge advantage to play away first. You can put all men in defense and go for 0-0 knowing that you you can get as much as 120 minutes to win the homegame.

 

[lysglimt]

Home advantage is a bigger advantage than having a score draw go your way imo.

It’s close to 50-50 if the teams are evenly matched.

Mathematically getting 0-0 away should be an advantage, but mentally it probably favours the hometeam. What tends to happen at 0-0 is that the hometeam gets cautious knowing how bad a goal for the awayteam is. So I actually think 0-0 at home is a good result

 

[Siorac]

As we said in the other thread this completely ignores the fact that the stronger team plays away first in the round of 16 which renders the data meaningless.

The data also includes the quarter-finals and semi-finals.

From this article:

An away team securing a 2-2 draw has gone through 82% of the time compared to 72% after drawing 1-1. In total this averages out to qualifying 75% of the time when the first leg results in a 0-0 draw and in 75% of ties when the first leg is a score draw.

There's also this, compiled from all European competitions, not just the CL:

A goalless draw overwhelmingly favours the away side. If your side draws the first leg 0-0 away from home, you’ve got a 64 per cent chance of going through.

 

[groovyalbert]

Depends on teams in question, but if you're away second leg there are far more scores which see you go through.

 

[Pagh Wraith]

The data also includes the quarter-finals and semi-finals.

But also the round of 16

If you want reliable data you should only look at quarter and semi-finals. And even then you really have to make sure the sample is big enough. Looking at all CL quarter and semi-finals only gets you 156 games since 1993. That's not a decent sample size at all.

 

[RobinLFC]

If we got a 0-0 away from home, I'd fancy us against almost every team in the world in the second leg at Anfield.

Now we got a 0-0 at Anfield and I still think the chances are fairly even. I guess it depends on the teams in question.

 

[Bobbymax]

I think it can depends on the teams involved. Based off last night's games you'd be thinking Bayern would be more concerned about a 0-0 and Liverpool's ability to get an away goal in the second leg than say Barcelona with Lyon (Do think Lyon have it in them to score there, but I think Barcelona feel they can out score them in the Camp Nou).

 

[Siorac]

But also the round of 16

If you want reliable data you should only look at quarter and semi-finals. And even then you really have to make sure the sample is big enough. Looking at all CL quarter and semi-finals only gets you 156 games since 1993. That's not a decent sample size at all.

There have been 691 goalless draws in the first leg of two-legged ties in UEFA club competition history, with the away team in the first game progressing 450 (65%) times compared to 241 (35%) for the home teams.

I cannot give you a more comprehensive sample than this. The numbers are consistent in pretty much every dataset I could find: 0-0 in the first leg favours the team that plays the second leg at home.

 

[Keeps It tidy]

A draw at home is really poor if you have a terrible away record in Europe.

 

[BarcaSpurs]

But also the round of 16

If you want reliable data you should only look at quarter and semi-finals. And even then you really have to make sure the sample is big enough. Looking at all CL quarter and semi-finals only gets you 156 games since 1993. That's not a decent sample size at all.

This.

Last 16 ties account for over half the data and its completely bias and useless.

 

[Siorac]

If we got a 0-0 away from home, I'd fancy us against almost every team in the world in the second leg at Anfield.

Now we got a 0-0 at Anfield and I still think the chances are fairly even. I guess it depends on the teams in question.

You might be a little biased though.

 

[Siorac]

This.

Last 16 ties account for over half the data and its completely bias and useless.

https://www.thestatszone.com/value-of-a-1st-leg-draw-in-uefa-club-competitions

This accounts for ALL UEFA club competitions. 691 ties in which the first leg ended 0-0.

 

[Jacob]

Getting 0-0 away is good enough for capitalizing on the home advantage in the second round.

 

[Enigma_87]

But also the round of 16

If you want reliable data you should only look at quarter and semi-finals. And even then you really have to make sure the sample is big enough. Looking at all CL quarter and semi-finals only gets you 156 games since 1993. That's not a decent sample size at all.

On the contrary it is. Even 100 games statistically is a very good sample to draw a conclusion on. You have 2 out of 3 teams progressing when the score is 0-0 in the first leg, which is accurate enough.

 

[Revan]

The home side, obviously. You just need to win at home.

The bullshit of 'I rather be away side' or 'better to lose 2-1 away than to draw 0-0' is just that, bullshit.

 

[Pagh Wraith]

On the contrary it is. Even 100 games statistically is a very good sample to draw a conclusion on. You have 2 out of 3 teams progressing when the score is 0-0 in the first leg, which is accurate enough.

No it isnt. Not all 156 of those finished 0-0. And again, any sample that includes round of 16 matches is worthless. You will find that the true ratio is very close to 50/50.

 

[Siorac]

On the contrary it is. Even 100 games statistically is a very good sample to draw a conclusion on. You have 2 out of 3 teams progressing when the score is 0-0 in the first leg, which is accurate enough.

This thread is absolutely chock-full of confirmation bias. People, based on their own reasoning, believe that 0-0 in the first leg is a good result for the home team of the first leg and bend over backwards to discredit or re-interpret the evidence that contradicts their view.

 

[el3mel]

I'll prefer to be the one drawing 0-0.

It's a crap result for the other team. One goal conceded on their pitch and they will be about to get KOed.

 

[Pagh Wraith]

https://www.thestatszone.com/value-of-a-1st-leg-draw-in-uefa-club-competitions

This accounts for ALL UEFA club competitions. 691 ties in which the first leg ended 0-0.

That data is useless. You cannot include round of 16 fixtures. You might as well include the Emirates cup or Slovak pre-season friendlies. I'm not being facetious here, there really isn't a point discussing this based on that sample.

 

[Revan]

No it isnt. Not all 156 of those finished 0-0. And again, any sample that includes round of 16 matches is worthless. You will find that the true ratio is very close to 50/50.

Essentially you decided that you like the away team having an advantage (which makes no logical sense anyway), and whatever data is thrown to you, you are going with your prior belief. Definitely not a good Bayesian.

 

[RobinLFC]

The home side, obviously. You just need to win at home.

The bullshit of 'I rather be away side' or 'better to lose 2-1 away than to draw 0-0' is just that, bullshit.

Assuming it won't be a 4-3 or 3-2 in the return leg, there are very few differences between a 0-0 and 2-1 - only that a 2-1 would mean OT instead of elimination, and a 0-0 would see you through instead of OT.

 

[Pagh Wraith]

Essentially you decided that you like the away team having an advantage (which makes no logical sense anyway), and whatever data is thrown to you, you are going with your prior belief. Definitely not a good Bayesian.

What?

You even managed to quote me saying one thing and then wrote something completely different in your post.