I ran 10,000 simulations in excel, and have found that on average, we'll lose 2 places if we lose to Newcastle
There are 7 teams below us that could end up ahead of us if we lose to Newcastle
Burnley: 9 points, +1GD, home to Everton
Sheffield Utd: 8 points, 0GD, away to Watford
Wolves: 7 points, -2GD, away to Man City
Southampton: 7 points, -2GD, away to Chelsea
Everton: 7 points, -6 GD, away to Burnley
Brighton, 6 points, -5 GD, home to Spurs
Norwich City: 6 points, -5 GD, home to Villa
(we sit on 9 points)
Theoretically, if we lose really really badly against Newcastle and Wolves, Southampton, Everton, Brighton, and Norwich all win, (and Sheffield get a draw, and Burnley don't lose too badly), then we could fall as far as 17th which would be... interesting.
But the good news is we'll probably only fall two or three places to 12th or 13th.
So, there is that.
(Used Oddschecker odds to simulate 70,000 matches)
There are 7 teams below us that could end up ahead of us if we lose to Newcastle
Burnley: 9 points, +1GD, home to Everton
Sheffield Utd: 8 points, 0GD, away to Watford
Wolves: 7 points, -2GD, away to Man City
Southampton: 7 points, -2GD, away to Chelsea
Everton: 7 points, -6 GD, away to Burnley
Brighton, 6 points, -5 GD, home to Spurs
Norwich City: 6 points, -5 GD, home to Villa
(we sit on 9 points)
Theoretically, if we lose really really badly against Newcastle and Wolves, Southampton, Everton, Brighton, and Norwich all win, (and Sheffield get a draw, and Burnley don't lose too badly), then we could fall as far as 17th which would be... interesting.
But the good news is we'll probably only fall two or three places to 12th or 13th.
So, there is that.
(Used Oddschecker odds to simulate 70,000 matches)