Football & Sports Betting Thread 2019/2020

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André Dominguez

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Closed my position @ Edmund - Berankis game :) Edmund had a nice 1.81. After the first set Berankis lost and his odd went up to 3.85, which I just had to nick a small dime as insurance.
 

ROFLUTION

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My boys Weymouth are 21/20 at sky get tonight away to Eastbourne. That’s tremendous odds, they really are if anybody wants to add to their Acca. You can even listen to my live match commentary if you’re feeling frisky.
Sounds good, but what's the reasoning behind? To be a good odds / value-bet, you gotta know something that the odds-setters probably dont - Do you?

Don't get me wrong, but without any reasoning behind why it's a good odds, the well-meant post might as well be a random tip from a chimpanzee choosing a team to win
 

Rolandofgilead

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Sounds good, but what's the reasoning behind? To be a good odds / value-bet, you gotta know something that the odds-setters probably dont - Do you?

Don't get me wrong, but without any reasoning behind why it's a good odds, the well-meant post might as well be a random tip from a chimpanzee choosing a team to win
Eastbourne are 17th, in poor form. Announced this week a need to find £40000 in a month and have parted company with their manager and top scorer to save money.

We are unbeaten in 7 in the league, sit 4th in the table and are coming off of an impressive 3-0 win at the weekend.
 

ROFLUTION

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Eastbourne are 17th, in poor form. Announced this week a need to find £40000 in a month and have parted company with their manager and top scorer to save money.

We are unbeaten in 7 in the league, sit 4th in the table and are coming off of an impressive 3-0 win at the weekend.
Sounds good, thanks. Just checked the stats - a lot of wins against the lower teams, so the fear is of course that the form is good because of bad opponents, but yet this one is also in bad condition. Are Eastbourne without a current manager now or? Sometimes it can have a positive effect too, to change the manager
 

Rolandofgilead

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Sounds good, thanks. Just checked the stats - a lot of wins against the lower teams, so the fear is of course that the form is good because of bad opponents, but yet this one is also in bad condition. Are Eastbourne without a current manager now or? Sometimes it can have a positive effect too, to change the manager
According to their forum, the managerial duties will be conducted by other coaches and the club captain, Sergio Torres.
 

andy dufresne

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Tennis did actually used to be a good source of profit for me however things have tightened up considerably nowadays on the amounts you can bet on an individual match, perhaps Wimbledon is the exception.If I rang any bookmaker or went into any high street betting shop and tried to place , for example , a four figure wager on a men's or women's single match,I would have no chance whatsoever of getting my bet taken unless I was backing a really short price favourite - FACT
 

Spiersey

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Tennis did actually used to be a good source of profit for me however things have tightened up considerably nowadays on the amounts you can bet on an individual match, perhaps Wimbledon is the exception.If I rang any bookmaker or went into any high street betting shop and tried to place , for example , a four figure wager on a men's or women's single match,I would have no chance whatsoever of getting my bet taken unless I was backing a really short price favourite - FACT
So what do you bet on now?
 

Sarni

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Going for Miami, Denver and Lakers treble. All should win comfortably. Denver may not find it that easy against Dallas but they are a much better and deeper team plus their homecourt advantage is ridiculous due to elevation. Butler makes debut for Miami and that should be a comfortable win, especially with Atlanta on back to back. The only risk is either Dallas or Atlanta shooting incredibly well and Doncic/Young having yet another spectacular game.
 

Berbaclass

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Tennis did actually used to be a good source of profit for me however things have tightened up considerably nowadays on the amounts you can bet on an individual match, perhaps Wimbledon is the exception.If I rang any bookmaker or went into any high street betting shop and tried to place , for example , a four figure wager on a men's or women's single match,I would have no chance whatsoever of getting my bet taken unless I was backing a really short price favourite - FACT
Not quite true in my experience. I work in a bookies and I have a customer that bets 4 figures on tennis/football on our terminals. Totally depends on whether the traders accept it.
 

André Dominguez

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Simple bets:
Small punt on At. Madrid 1st half
Parma to win
Inter -1

My picks for possible arbs:

Edmund - Berankis

Berlin - Milano
Lyon - Baskonia
PAOK - Neptunas
Bonn - Besiktas
Disaster on football even though Inter bet was returned, but all my arbs went well, with the exception of Besiktas.
 

Sarni

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Going for Miami, Denver and Lakers treble. All should win comfortably. Denver may not find it that easy against Dallas but they are a much better and deeper team plus their homecourt advantage is ridiculous due to elevation. Butler makes debut for Miami and that should be a comfortable win, especially with Atlanta on back to back. The only risk is either Dallas or Atlanta shooting incredibly well and Doncic/Young having yet another spectacular game.
Stupid dumb Denver.
 

John_Dooh

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Which bit of butter will drop to the floor first. The big Indian guy lets him have 5 figures but if Nurse Ratched finds out he's in serious trouble.
One of my absolute favourites, made me wanna watch it now!:D
 

andy dufresne

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Berbaclass is making a statement there about a man who bets 4 figures i.e a thousand pounds on more through the terminals inside a bookmakers.That is nonsense and you are saying it purely to win an argument/discussion.I have been a professional gambler for well over 15 years and have gambled rather more recklessly for another 20 years on top of that and I have never witnessed an individual count out a thousand pounds or more in cash.If you are saying through a debit card then maybe however there would no chance of him getting his bet taken by the traders in the first place so what on earth is the point of actually trying.This forum is all about opinions and that is mine whether it be right or wrong.
 

André Dominguez

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Famalicão to Win
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Today potential arbitrage markets:
Maccabi Tel Aviv - Fenerbahce
Bayern - Real Madrid
Limoges - Partizan
Bologna - Monaco
Gaziantep - Bamberg
Lietkabelis - Turk Telekom
Polzela - Krka
Brussels - Charleroi
 

Berbaclass

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Berbaclass is making a statement there about a man who bets 4 figures i.e a thousand pounds on more through the terminals inside a bookmakers.That is nonsense and you are saying it purely to win an argument/discussion.I have been a professional gambler for well over 15 years and have gambled rather more recklessly for another 20 years on top of that and I have never witnessed an individual count out a thousand pounds or more in cash.If you are saying through a debit card then maybe however there would no chance of him getting his bet taken by the traders in the first place so what on earth is the point of actually trying.This forum is all about opinions and that is mine whether it be right or wrong.
You’re talking nonsense pal. I work in a bookies and I it happens regularly.
 

AbusementPark

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ok pal! whatever you say...Are there any betting shops in Cooper Station?
Ive done a £1000 cash bet on a horse race for my boss before, told me to lift it from petty cash in work and go round to place it. They took the bet over the counter on a 7/1 shot, didnt win and lost £100 of my own money following the tip.
 

André Dominguez

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Berbaclass is making a statement there about a man who bets 4 figures i.e a thousand pounds on more through the terminals inside a bookmakers.That is nonsense and you are saying it purely to win an argument/discussion.I have been a professional gambler for well over 15 years and have gambled rather more recklessly for another 20 years on top of that and I have never witnessed an individual count out a thousand pounds or more in cash.If you are saying through a debit card then maybe however there would no chance of him getting his bet taken by the traders in the first place so what on earth is the point of actually trying.This forum is all about opinions and that is mine whether it be right or wrong.
You are right at some point. There are tons of bookies who will limit your sum of bets and will pretty much can shut up the shop whenever they feel pleased. It happened to me a few times bets being cancelled by the bookies after the match was started and they don't even explain why (your money is returned, though). Having said that, their business is also very keen on cash-flows, because circulating cash is always a good thing for their markets.

On the other hand, there are bookies for specific markets and for bigger wallets, and physical bookies tend to accept larger bets, because since they don't have live betting, you can't make anything if events roll against you.
 

andy dufresne

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Andre - I accept that you may have been able to place a large wager/bet on a Horse,that is totally different,believe it or not,to being able to get a large bet,nowadays,on something like a Tennis Match in a Tournament in say,Germany or indeed , maybe this applies to Portugal too.I am sure that loads of guys on here have stories to tell of great bets placed and massive amounts of money won however I remain sceptical simply because the only reason I am able to win is because I place my wagers with a betting exchange and for example,if I wanted to place a £200 each way double on two horses priced at 5-1 in 8 runner conditions races at a racecourse in the UK, I would be turned away instantly and asked to reduce my stake to maybe £20 or £25 each way instead, sad I know,but true.
 

André Dominguez

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Andre - I accept that you may have been able to place a large wager/bet on a Horse,that is totally different,believe it or not,to being able to get a large bet,nowadays,on something like a Tennis Match in a Tournament in say,Germany or indeed , maybe this applies to Portugal too.I am sure that loads of guys on here have stories to tell of great bets placed and massive amounts of money won however I remain sceptical simply because the only reason I am able to win is because I place my wagers with a betting exchange and for example,if I wanted to place a £200 each way double on two horses priced at 5-1 in 8 runner conditions races at a racecourse in the UK, I would be turned away instantly and asked to reduce my stake to maybe £20 or £25 each way instead, sad I know,but true.
In PT we have regulations about it, but the numbers are pretty high for a regular person: from 1 000€ to 5 600€.

Online bookies will sabotage your large stakes if you are a regular winner pretty much like a casino do, but you can place a tennis bet for 1000€ or more in Placard here at Portugal. Bare in mind that placard is a physical bookie (you place your bets in regular stores who have placard machines, there are no websites to register your bet) and you must place your bet 10 minutes until the event starts.
 

André Dominguez

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Famalicão to Win [Win]
Under 2 Bilbao - Espanyol [Fail]

Today potential arbitrage markets:
Maccabi Tel Aviv - Fenerbahce [Win] position closed at 2Q
Bayern - Real Madrid [Win] position closed at 3Q
Limoges - Partizan [fail]
Bologna - Monaco [even] position closed at 3Q
Gaziantep - Bamberg [Win] position closed at 1Q
Lietkabelis - Turk Telekom [Fail]
Polzela - Krka [full win] no arb needed
Brussels - Charleroi [Win] position closed at 4Q
Today was terrific. Almost full house.
 

Ady87

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Had £5 on Lazio, Roma, Montpellier, Monaco, Dortmund and Fiorentina to win £273. Lateish winners from Dortmund and Fiorentina helped me out. I’d have cashed out if I could but Will Hill wouldn’t give me one due to the staggered game times and games hitting 90 mins so had to ride it out but it came in.

I had a £10 Acca that lost because of Liverpool.
 

André Dominguez

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Simple bets:

Gabigol to score
Spain U17 game might become interesting live
Sporting to win
DC Boavista

Possible arbitrage:
Dimitrov - Thiem
Struff - Tsonga

Red Star - Khimki Moscow
PAO - Anadolu
 

André Dominguez

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I'm on sporting.

When you say "possible arb", I'm not sure what you mean. You mean you're hoping to trade it?
Not really. It is similar to trading in some aspects, though. I'll describe you some of my arbitrage bets from yesterday. I usually say it's possible simply because if things go wrong from the start, all you can do is to hope for the best :D

  • Maccabi Tel Aviv - Fenerbahce [Win] position closed at 2Q: Maccabi odd to win was 2.05. Fenerbahce is playing poorly this season, so I went on Maccabi. At the 2nd Quarter Maccabi was gaining a confortable lead, which made Fenerbahce odd to go to 3.95 on live, so I placed an arbitrage bet on Fenerbahce (on a different bookie, obviously), leaving me with a profit either way. In this case, as Maccabi was leading confortably, I put 90% of profit into their victory. If I had only waited until 2Q end, the odd would be much higher because Maccabi made a 20 points lead.
  • Bayern - Real Madrid [Win] position closed at 3Q: Bayern has a very well drilled team and Real Madrid is still a bit inconsistent at this season start. Bayern odd started at 3.50 pre-match, but when I registered it was already 2.95. The game itself was very balanced. Bayern was leading, but by a slim margin. Had to wait until the 3Q end, and Bayern got himself on a 10 point lead, which made Real Madrid odd go up until 2.65, opening a way for an arbitrage bet. Since Madrid has a very strong team, I decided to distribute the profit by 50 / 50, because teams like that are capable of miracle recoveries. Bayern hold the lead well and in hindsight I could had gone 90% on them, but...
  • Limoges - Partizan [fail] Limoges started well, having a 9 point lead, but bookie closed the live bets for a few minutes. When bets were reopened Partizan was doing a fantastic 2Q and already recovered, never to stop scoring again. I kept an eye on the match, but Limoges never recovered, so bet lost.
Positives of this system:
Higher percentages of hit rate, and sometimes you don't even need to make an insurance bet if the game goes on your way.

Negatives:
If things go badly, there's little you can do, but it's basically like loosing a simple bet. With some luck you might find an opening for an insurance bet.
Sometimes one bookie cancels the bet, and the other bookie doesn't do that. If the bookie who canceled was the one where you would win money, then it's a bummer (been there) because despite getting your money returned, you probably be on red for that arbitrage.
Time spent: yes, this requires some of your attention. But you can just install a regular sport live results app on your smartphone and put alerts on score numbers or just keep tabs opened and checking the result actively, while doing other things that require your time.
 
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Danny Roberts

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Not really. It is similar to trading in some aspects, though. I'll describe you some of my arbitrage bets from yesterday. I usually say it's possible simply because if things go wrong from the start, all you can do is to hope for the best :D

  • Maccabi Tel Aviv - Fenerbahce [Win] position closed at 2Q: Maccabi odd to win was 2.05. Fenerbahce is playing poorly this season, so I went on Maccabi. At the 2nd Quarter Maccabi was gaining a confortable lead, which made Fenerbahce odd to go to 3.95 on live, so I placed an arbitrage bet on Fenerbahce (on a different bookie, obviously), leaving me with a profit either way. In this case, as Maccabi was leading confortably, I put 90% of profit into their victory. If I had only waited until 2Q end, the odd would be much higher because Maccabi made a 20 points lead.
  • Bayern - Real Madrid [Win] position closed at 3Q: Bayern has a very well drilled team and Real Madrid is still a bit inconsistent at this season start. Bayern odd started at 3.50 pre-match, but when I registered it was already 2.95. The game itself was very balanced. Bayern was leading, but by a slim margin. Had to wait until the 3Q end, and Bayern got himself on a 10 point lead, which made Real Madrid odd go up until 2.65, opening a way for an arbitrage bet. Since Madrid has a very strong team, I decided to distribute the profit by 50 / 50, because teams like that are capable of miracle recoveries. Bayern hold the lead well and in hindsight I could had gone 90% on them, but...
  • Limoges - Partizan [fail] Limoges started well, having a 9 point lead, but bookie closed the live bets for a few minutes. When bets were reopened Partizan was doing a fantastic 2Q and already recovered, never to stop scoring again. I kept an eye on the match, but Limoges never recovered, so bet lost.
Positives of this system:
Higher percentages of hit rate, and sometimes you don't even need to make an insurance bet if the game goes on your way.

Negatives:
If things go badly, there's little you can do, but it's basically like loosing a simple bet. With some luck you might find an opening for an insurance bet.
Sometimes one bookie cancels the bet, and the other bookie doesn't do that. If the bookie who canceled was the one where you would win money, then it's a bummer (been there) because despite getting your money returned, you probably be on red for that arbitrage.
Time spent: yes, this requires some of your attention. But you can just install a regular sport live results app on your smartphone and put alerts on score numbers or just keep tabs opened and checking the result actively, while doing other things that require your time.

===

Yup, ok, you're basically just trading (to my mind) as with arbing the odds differential would have to exist at the time you make the initial bet. No matter what we call it, if it's working for you then so be it but by "possible arb" you really just mean it's a bet you hope to cash out of I think.
 
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