UK General Election - 12th December 2019 | Con 365, Lab 203, LD 11, SNP 48, Other 23 - Tory Majority of 80

[Ultimate Grib]

I keep telling myself to stay out of this thread as nothing good ever comes from me posting here

But you know, although we obviously don’t agree on some things and from your posts I can see how your views of the Conservative Party have been formed. It sounds like there has been some tough times in your family for which I’m sorry to hear. Believe it or not I’m not a million miles away from being a Labour voter myself.

But this post is wrong. To assume all people who are voting Conservative are ‘this’ is silly. Some people, like me, are more than likely holding their noses and voting Conservative to ensure Labour don’t win despite being previous Labour voters. I’m not voting for who I want in office, I’m voting for the party that has the best chance of keeping this current Labour Party out of office.

So yes, some of us know deep down what we are voting for indirectly but because of specific policies that affect us and our families directly, and some of the more socialist plans and ideas just find the current Labour Party unappealing. It’s not quite as simple as you’re making out in your post.

I would have just as hard a time as that caller finding a reason to admire Boris but that still doesn’t change how I’ll vote.

Labour lost me the minute they announced their proposed changes to IHT and some of the ideas aimed at landlords. Now I know they’ve apparently watered the right to buy plans in the last week or so but the fact they have this way of thinking makes me very wary of them.

As you know, I inherited my 2nd home when my own parents died. It is my family home, where I grew up and it will pretty much be my pension throughout my old age so the thought of being forced to sell it at a ‘reasonable price’ triggered a very strong inner emotion.

Effectively I would have to sell my past, my present and mine and my children’s future. How could I vote for that? Like I said, I know this has apparently been watered down but even so, it displays either a way of thinking or even worse, a lack of thinking that makes it very hard for me to want to vote Labour.

I understand they want rich people to shoulder a larger burden and want to try and improve conditions for the poor but I fall into neither category so I would expect my situation to be left pretty much alone.

That’s not to say I would be opposed to certain tax rises that are taken from my salary or even my rental income, but to take it as a lump sum from my children on my death is another thing entirely.

At each election it is a balancing act. 1) what will this mean for the country? 2) What will this mean to me and my family? For this election I am more concerned by question 2. Yes, this could be viewed as selfish, and if so, then I accept that as I view myself as largely a considerate and generous person, but do I want to help my own children as much as I can? Yes.

I have always, long before this election, viewed IHT as a spiteful tax, a cynical grab of assets that normal families have worked hard for and already been taxed on and I feel that the current levels are fine. They allow pretty average families to pass the family home down to their children and no argument in the world will convince me this is wrong.

For me, rightly or wrongly this is pretty much a one policy election and it’s not Brexit.

 

[Ultimate Grib]

I’ve seen complaints that Labour are devoting far too many of their resources to winning the unlikely seats of Tory big names (I.e. IDS in Chingford, Boris, Raab), rather than more logical swing seats. From an outsider’s view it does appear to be the case.

Also - what happened to Corbyn’s rallies? They seemed to be everywhere in 2017, I can hardly remember seeing any in this campaign.

IDS is in trouble with a tiny majority they should absolutely try and win that seat. There would have been a lot of people moving to the area, people coming of voting age and european nationals who would have completed their naturalisation in fear of Brexit. The Lib Dems have virtually no traction there so Labour is absolutely best placed. Raab is losing to the Lib Dems while they're not even promoting the candidate against Boris that much even though they should because he has let the people down in his constituency with Heathrow and he should be pressed on whether he plans to lie down in front of the bulldozers now that he is in a position of power.

Hundreds queue round block to see Jeremy Corbyn at Labour NHS rally at Leeds Beckett University

https://www.leeds-live.co.uk/news/leeds-news/jeremy-corbyn-labour-rally-leeds-17344386

 

[ThierryHenry]

IDS is in trouble with a tiny majority they should absolutely try and win that seat. There would have been a lot of people moving to the area, people coming of voting age and european nationals who would have completed their naturalisation in fear of Brexit. The Lib Dems have virtually no traction there so Labour is absolutely best placed.

Hundreds queue round block to see Jeremy Corbyn at Labour NHS rally at Leeds Beckett University

https://www.leeds-live.co.uk/news/leeds-news/jeremy-corbyn-labour-rally-leeds-17344386

I know all that, I grew up in Walthamstow. I’m just saying that it feels like the likes of Chingford and Uxbridge have received oversized attention relative to less ‘sexy’ constituency wins in more marginal seats. I’ve seen campaigners say the same on Twitter.

As to the rally. I’ve no idea if they’ve just received less press attention this time, or if he’s doing far fewer of them, but I’ve just not seen them.

 

[nickm]

The media will conveniently ignore his pleas and only propagate this nonsense. It’s almost as if the sick feckers are relieved these events happened when they did so they have a new stick to beat Corbyn with.

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

 

[Volumiza]

Yep, that’s me every night

 

[Pexbo]

Yep, that’s me every night

You do try to justify yourself in an odd way though. You try to get sympathy or understanding that you are former Labour but can’t vote for a Labour Party that has moved to the left and yet your reaction to that is to switch to a party that has moved way further towards the far right than Labour has to the left.

 

[Wumminator]

I do find the idea of needing a second house ridiculous. I get wanting to leave stuff to your family, but would you rather not leave them a fully functioning society with safety checks in place for them?

 

[Ultimate Grib]

Yep, that’s me every night

No. That will be you when you're forced to sell your second home. You'll be upset because of the emotional connection but you will have all that cash to wipe your tears away with.

It's not a thing by the way forcing people to send their second third or fourth homes. It's another propaganda line with no basis which you have bought in to so you're no better than the guy on the phone in.

 

[jderbyshire]

My right-wing Grandad was warning me last night not to vote Labour because their "outrageously high spending" will result in "interest rates soaring".

Has anyone got a response so I can put him in his place? Or does he actually have a point?

 

[finneh]

You do try to justify yourself in an odd way though. You try to get sympathy or understanding that you are former Labour but can’t vote for a Labour Party that has moved to the left and yet your reaction to that is to switch to a party that has moved way further towards the far right than Labour has to the left.

Out of curiosity outside of Brexit with seems to divide right and left; what parts of the Tory manifesto are more right wing than their predecessors? From what I've read of the manifesto under Boris they're more centrist compared with Osborne's fiscal management.

 

[Volumiza]

You do try to justify yourself in an odd way though. You try to get sympathy or understanding that you are former Labour but can’t vote for a Labour Party that has moved to the left and yet your reaction to that is to switch to a party that has moved way further towards the far right than Labour has to the left.

Hey, I don’t come on here for sympathy, I come on here to be an armchair manager and talk about United.

No part of me thinks for one second I need sympathy, there are lots of people far more deserving of sympathy.

No. That will be you when you're forced to sell your second home. You'll be upset because of the emotional connection but you will have all that cash to wipe your tears away with.

It's not a thing by the way forcing people to send their second third or fourth homes. It's another propaganda line with no basis which you have bought in to so you're no better than the guy on the phone in.

I know they’ve rolled back on the right to buy idea by the way, but if it is in their thinking then that is enough.

And even if it was a policy likely to happen, do you seriously think me selling my one modest second home would cure society of inequality? If I owned 10 or more rentals that I’d invested in then maybe I could understand but I don’t.

That rental will be my pension, it will help me live without putting any burden on the state in the future. It will also help my children do the same.

I mean, if it makes Labour supporters feel better that no one is allowed to own anything that enables them to live easier then we are really in a bad place.

 

[ThierryHenry]

My right-wing Grandad was warning me last night not to vote Labour because their "outrageously high spending" will result in "interest rates soaring".

Has anyone got a response so I can put him in his place? Or does he actually have a point?

Higher gov borrowing + a less clear deficit reduction plan could see interest rates increase, he’s not wrong. But they’re at historic lows at the moment, which you could argue; a) Are artificially low, or b) Should actually be higher, to give the BOE more headroom in the next downturn.

I suppose it more comes down to, do you think their large investment projects (including nationalisations and repaying WASPI women) are worth it, and the country will see a positive return on those investments.

 

[SteveJ]

Council tax more likely to go up under Conservatives than Labour or Lib Dems, Institute for Fiscal Studies suggests

The Institute for Fiscal Studies has published a briefing on the Conservative, Labour and Liberal Democrat plans for local government funding. This is not an issue that has attracted much attention in the campaign so far, but it deserves some focus because councils provide vital services – and the gap between what’s on offer from the Tories and Labour is vast.

Although the Conservatives claim to be a low-tax party, under their plans it is more likely that council tax would have to rise, the IFS suggests.

Here is an excerpt from the briefing, which covers plans for local government funding in England:

'The money allocated by the Conservatives would not be sufficient to meet rising costs and demands over the next parliament even if council tax were increased by 4% a year, necessitating a further retrenchment in services or unfunded top-ups to the plans set out.

The Labour party has allocated more than enough money to meet rising costs and demands, allowing increases in service provision and quality, although not enough to restore them to 2010 levels. That is true even if council tax were frozen – although Labour has no plans for such a freeze.

The Liberal Democrats have allocated enough money to meet rising costs and demands if council tax is increased by 2% a year – although only if some the funding earmarked for bus services, youth services or homelessness is used to meet these pressures.'

Of course, there would be less need for council tax rises under Labour because local authorities would be getting more funding as a result of tax increases imposed by Labour elsewhere in the system.

Council funding in England has fallen by 24% per head since 2009-10, the IFS says.

(Guardian)

 

[Volumiza]

Out of curiosity outside of Brexit with seems to divide right and left; what parts of the Tory manifesto are more right wing than their predecessors? From what I've read of the manifesto the Tories under Boris are more centrist compared with Osborne's fiscal management.

This is actually where the Tories are missing a beat, yes Brexit is obviously a huge issue but as far as I see it, now that they have effectively started raising the austerity drawbridge they are actually moving more into the centre ground than before. They should be more vocal about this, their manifesto is fairly sensible and doable.

The Tories are running a dreadful campaign.

 

[CassiusClaymore]

My right-wing Grandad was warning me last night not to vote Labour because their "outrageously high spending" will result in "interest rates soaring".

Has anyone got a response so I can put him in his place? Or does he actually have a point?

"Ok Boomer"

 

[Jippy]

Damn right you've nothing to whine about. You're one of the people keeping others down. You should be apologising.

He should be apologising for inheriting his family's home when his parents died? Calm down Lenin.

 

[MikeUpNorth]

My right-wing Grandad was warning me last night not to vote Labour because their "outrageously high spending" will result in "interest rates soaring".

Has anyone got a response so I can put him in his place? Or does he actually have a point?

It’s very possible that interest rates rise, but the honest answer is nobody knows all the effects a Corbyn victory would have.

It certainly seems likely that it would spook the markets to some degree due to Labour’s plans around shareholder expropriations and nationalisations below market rates. This would result in UK government (and UK companies) borrowing costs rising, but who knows by how much. It could also see a sharp drop in the value of the pound, which feeds through to push up inflation. The share price of UK listed firms would also presumably take a significant dive.

The Bank of England is tasked with setting interest rates to achieve a 2% inflation target. In the event of inflation rising significantly above this level, it would respond by raising rates.

All this is hard to foresee because of its interaction with Brexit. If the UK were to decide to remain in the EU, then the boost from that could offset some of the negative reaction to a Corbyn government.

It’s all speculation obviously, but it’s not hard to imagine there could be a scenario where interest rates rise significantly. All governments (perhaps with the exception of the US) need to be mindful of the reaction of the markets to their plans. They can’t make policy in isolation, if they want people to lend them money.

 

[11101]

My right-wing Grandad was warning me last night not to vote Labour because their "outrageously high spending" will result in "interest rates soaring".

Has anyone got a response so I can put him in his place? Or does he actually have a point?

He is right. Inflation and interest rates would almost certainly rise if Corbyn implemented his full manifesto. There's a reason the financial markets shoot up every time Labour fall in the polls.

 

[Jippy]

Economic growth is so weak I highly doubt interest rates will rise significantly in the short-term. I think the Bank of England would rather let inflation ride up a bit if the pound gets slammed if we do get Brexit, as raising rates would likely tip the economy into recession.

 

[Ekkie Thump]

I have always, long before this election, viewed IHT as a spiteful tax, a cynical grab of assets that normal families have worked hard for and already been taxed on and I feel that the current levels are fine. They allow pretty average families to pass the family home down to their children and no argument in the world will convince me this is wrong.

The average house price in this country is £233,000. The average family home is £307,000. Labour plans allow for over double the cost of the average family home to be passed on to your children tax free.

The average inheritance (per person) is £48,000. The median inheritance is £11,000. The combined inheritance parents can leave to their offspring tax free under Labour would be £650,000.

The number of children living in relative poverty is 4.1 million, up from 4 million last year.

You'd rather like to maintain that level of inequality over generations - and no argument in the world will convince you that is wrong.

 

[MikeUpNorth]

Economic growth is so weak I highly doubt interest rates will rise significantly in the short-term. I think the Bank of England would rather let inflation ride up a bit if the pound gets slammed if we do get Brexit, as raising rates would likely tip the economy into recession.

I think that’s right, within reason. If inflation went much beyond 3 or 4%, they’d have to hike rates. Unless a Labour government decided to compromise the independence of the central bank.

 

[EwanI Ted]

My right-wing Grandad was warning me last night not to vote Labour because their "outrageously high spending" will result in "interest rates soaring".

Has anyone got a response so I can put him in his place? Or does he actually have a point?

I'm guessing he meant inflation and was perhaps thinking about the wage-inflation spiral that happened in the 1970s. In theory it could certainly happen again. What will stop it happening is if the spending is done in a controlled and clever way. Wild spending would almost certainly trigger inflation, particularly if businesses are also paying more tax than they were. If you take a lot more money out of businesses and put it straight into people's pockets, businesses will raise prices. That's certain. That doesn't mean that all this will necessarily happen under Labour, but its certainly a very real risk.

 

[Jippy]

I think that’s right, within reason. If inflation went much beyond 3 or 4%, they’d have to hike rates. Unless a Labour government decided to compromise the independence of the central bank.

Would be an interesting dilemma for the BoE. Remains to be seen who replaces Carney next year as well. Making the BoE independent was a positive legacy of Blair's administration, I doubt either party could reverse that without a significant market reaction and likely downgrade.

 

[11101]

Economic growth is so weak I highly doubt interest rates will rise significantly in the short-term. I think the Bank of England would rather let inflation ride up a bit if the pound gets slammed if we do get Brexit, as raising rates would likely tip the economy into recession.

Brexit is already priced in for the most part, it actually happening wouldn't change too much from now.

Once we pick a direction things will begin to move again in the economy. With a massive spending spree prices would rise and interest rates would have no choice but to follow. None of this is happening any time soon but it certainly could within the next full government term.

 

[finneh]

This is actually where the Tories are missing a beat, yes Brexit is obviously a huge issue but as far as I see it, now that they have effectively started raising the austerity drawbridge they are actually moving more into the centre ground than before. They should be more vocal about this, their manifesto is fairly sensible and doable.

The Tories are running a dreadful campaign.

Knowing someone who's part of Boris' team the message is a real fine balance. What I'm told is the vast majority of people who believe Labour's spending plans are ridiculous but believe a more centrist easing of the purse-strings is positive are already voting Tory irrespective of how loudly they shout about this positive pragmatism (excluding some of the stronger remainers who will be voting Lib Dems irrespective of championing economic policies). However people who might well vote Tory due to Brexit are less likely to vote for them when the topic of public services comes up when pitted head to head with Labour.

Essentially they've already banked your vote, knowing that you wouldn't countenance Corbyn's extreme policy agenda. Making you even more comfortable in voting Tory isn't their priority; especially as the belief is that in cosying up to centrists further (e.g. talking about a softer Brexit as intimated in the political declaration, talking about easing the purse strings etc) would likely alienate the pro Brexit but economically left voters that they're banking will decide the election.

Corbyn's tactic of avoiding Brexit discussion altogether is a much easier strategy. The relentless promises of more and more giveaways plays to his pro-remain hard left young base whilst also playing to the economic and social leanings of the marginal pro Brexit voters as well. Obviously it's a lot easier for Corbyn irrespective of this as he's writing a manifesto hoping to win 265 seats, rather than one looking to win 345.

 

[Sweet Square]

@Sweet Square If you're trying to convince a Tory voter to show some recognition that they're culpable for the Tories impact on the poor, you're asking for miracles.

Their brains won't allow it, they've an emotional feeling of being targeted and backwards reasoned a faintly logical sounding argument to convince themselves.

Usually one or all of the below:

• False Choice - It's not my fault as all the other options would be bad for people too
• Powerless - It's not my fault poverty is inevitable anyway
• Blame - It's not my fault the poor are lazy, i worked hard they should get a job.
• Denial - It's all just left wing conspiracy, this Tory will actually help people

Your right and honestly I shouldn't be wasting my time. I just don't get the mindset, if they are going to support such awful policies that lead to people dying, all because its in their own self interest why not live it up a bit. Why this pathetic reasoning to avoid taking responsibility for their actions and also as you've said the feeling of being targeted shtick, this is quite a new trend, right ? Thatcher wouldn't have acted like this, she wore the tory bell end badge with pride and made no apologise for it.

The standard of British conservatism has really fallen over the years.

“deport all the blacks Tory party” now people have mentioned fake news on here - that’s an astonishing and damaging claim. Which the way you appropriate things implies anyone who votes Tory is a racist, along with being a massive bell end.

They literally deported black British citizens. Like thats a thing that actually happened, I know a ton of people have wiped it from their brains but it really did happen.

My right-wing Grandad was warning me last night not to vote Labour because their "outrageously high spending" will result in "interest rates soaring".

Has anyone got a response so I can put him in his place? Or does he actually have a point?

Tell him the election is on the 13th. This is a joke

 

[ZupZup]

Out of curiosity outside of Brexit with seems to divide right and left; what parts of the Tory manifesto are more right wing than their predecessors? From what I've read of the manifesto under Boris they're more centrist compared with Osborne's fiscal management.

The thing with saying 'outside of Brexit' is that it's not a fair reflection given that carrying out a more right wing version of Brexit is their dominant policy... and the fact I would question their honesty when it comes to public spending given how disingenuous their recent claims about nurse recruitment and new hospitals have been. This current manifestation of the Tory party is basically UKIP with more acceptability.

 

[nickm]

I’ve seen complaints that Labour are devoting far too many of their resources to winning the unlikely seats of Tory big names (I.e. IDS in Chingford, Boris, Raab), rather than more logical swing seats. From an outsider’s view it does appear to be the case.

I read something about Labour having no target seats which seems... odd.

 

[CassiusClaymore]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

I know it's twitter an all but been a fair few reports of Tory canvassers saying this to people.

 

[Jippy]

Brexit is already priced in for the most part, it actually happening wouldn't change too much from now.

Once we pick a direction things will begin to move again in the economy. With a massive spending spree prices would rise and interest rates would have no choice but to follow. None of this is happening any time soon but it certainly could within the next full government term.

Maybe- fund managers have been piling into UK equity for a while now in that belief. I still think there will be some nasty shocks along the way though, be it through large employers quitting the UK or whatever.

 

[esmufc07]

Rumours Raab could lose his seat aswell. That would be pleasing.

 

[ThierryHenry]

The thing with saying 'outside of Brexit' is that it's not a fair reflection given that carrying out a more right wing version of Brexit is their dominant policy... and the fact I would question their honesty when it comes to public spending given how disingenuous their recent claims about nurse recruitment and new hospitals have been. This current manifestation of the Tory party is basically UKIP with more acceptability.

Precisely. Brexit is the most material economic decision a government has taken in most of our lifetimes, and it’s clearly a protectionist/ illiberal/ hard right action. You can’t discount it from assessing the Tories in this election any more than you could discount not being able to breath underwater if you were considering living at the bottom of the ocean.

 

[Ultimate Grib]

Hey, I don’t come on here for sympathy, I come on here to be an armchair manager and talk about United.

No part of me thinks for one second I need sympathy, there are lots of people far more deserving of sympathy.



I know they’ve rolled back on the right to buy idea by the way, but if it is in their thinking then that is enough.

And even if it was a policy likely to happen, do you seriously think me selling my one modest second home would cure society of inequality? If I owned 10 or more rentals that I’d invested in then maybe I could understand but I don’t.

That rental will be my pension, it will help me live without putting any burden on the state in the future. It will also help my children do the same.

I mean, if it makes Labour supporters feel better that no one is allowed to own anything that enables them to live easier then we are really in a bad place.

The policy was aimed at large landlords with 4 or more properties who are in effect a business, not at people who have bought or own a property as an asset for the future. This is the actual quote from McDonell: “There’s a large number of individuals or families who have bought another property as their asset for the future and we wouldn’t want to endanger that.”

It is in no way understandable how you have deducted they want to force you to sell your home under market value from that apart from if you read the right wing press headlines and not the context.

I know changing your mind is a lost cause that's not what I'm trying to do, I'm just pointing out the flaws in your argument.

 

[Pink Moon]

I know it's twitter an all but been a fair few reports of Tory canvassers saying this to people.

Corbyn's gotta evict as many of us as he can. How else is he going to put up all those terrorists he'll be inviting into the UK?

 

[Ultimate Grib]

My right-wing Grandad was warning me last night not to vote Labour because their "outrageously high spending" will result in "interest rates soaring".

Has anyone got a response so I can put him in his place? Or does he actually have a point?

Your old man's old man told you to vote Conservative fam? Tell him bollocks you're a cnut, you're a cnut. You'd rather shag a bucket with a big hole in it than consider voting Tories for just one minute.

On a more serious note tell him we pay over £40bn in interest today because the Tories have tripled the national debt since taking office 9 years ago.

 

[CassiusClaymore]

Corbyn's gotta evict as many of us as he can. How else is he going to put up all those terrorists he'll be inviting into the UK?

You joke but we know what flagrant lies they tell (unchallenged) on TV so Christ knows what they're saying to the public when campaigning.

 

[EwanI Ted]

You joke but we know what flagrant lies they tell (unchallenged) on TV so Christ knows what they're saying to the public when campaigning.

Im guessing he's probably referring to interest rates rises? There's a lot of people out there who still worry about interest rates after the ERM debacle in 92. My in-laws lost their house because of it.

Of course, it was the Tories who caused that to happen and that shouldn't be forgotten, but still, people worry about it.

 

[Volumiza]

The policy was aimed at large landlords with 4 or more properties who are in effect a business, not at people who have bought or own a property as an asset for the future. This is the actual quote from McDonell: “There’s a large number of individuals or families who have bought another property as their asset for the future and we wouldn’t want to endanger that.”

It is in no way understandable how you have deducted they want to force you to sell your home under market value from that apart from if you read the right wing press headlines and not the context.

I know changing your mind is a lost cause that's not what I'm trying to do, I'm just pointing out the flaws in your argument.

Ive already acknowledged the change in what McDonnell discussed earlier in the year as opposed to your quoted comments, I’m aware of his apparent U Turn.

The fact it was even thought of shows the inherent contempt for anyone who actually owns anything and wants to live comfortably.

And while I genuinely consider myself a floating voter, you’re right, I just cannot support the current Labour Party and their economic policies.

 

[Raven]

Ok, I’d find it very interesting if you could find me one single person (other than maybe a couple women I two timed in my early 20’s) that I’ve ever met, worked for or see in my daily life that would say I had anything to apologise for or had kept anyone down. I don’t feel like I need to go to confession just yet.

I genuinely don’t think by owning one rental property and wanting to pass it on I am oppressing anybody.

It must be said that Labour are not looking to take your property, they have repeatedly said that it is the dodgy landlords and property developers who they're going after. You can vote Tory if you want, but you should know that your reasoning behind it is wrong. All your vote will do is increase inequality and poverty.

 

[Volumiza]

It must be said that Labour are not looking to take your property, they have repeatedly said that it is the dodgy landlords and property developers who they're going after. You can vote Tory if you want, but you should know that your reasoning behind it is wrong. All your vote will do is increase inequality and poverty.

As I’ve said, what JM is saying now is very different to what he was saying earlier in the year as I assume he realised how many very normal families would be affected by changes like that.