Uhmmmm, I think that might've been sarcasm?
Zidane sack watch - 19/20
- Thread starter JoaquinJoaquin
- Start date
I know it was, I was agreeing with him.
Zidane is a good coach and he's been doing well with the players at his disposal so far, but his season will be entirely judged depending on what he does in the three remaining competitions. This was just a Spanish Supercopa trophy, good thing to win, but hardly conclusive.
I think Zidane wants to win La Liga the most, although Copa Del Rey is the only trophy missing so far in his cabinet..In the CL he will try to advance as much is possible but if he doesnt win it it wiil be not the end of the world for him...
Good win yesterday. Long way to go but the title is really a possibility for them this year.
Probably would be better if they got dumped out by City in the CL and let Barca have a deep run it in this year.
Probably would be better if they got dumped out by City in the CL and let Barca have a deep run it in this year.
Will be interesing vs City. Reals defense is looking good, but can they stop the City team?
Also can Real score more goals which they might need?
Also can Real score more goals which they might need?
They're favorites against City.
I would even have them as heavy favorites if Hazard was fit.
I would even have them as heavy favorites if Hazard was fit.
League form doesn't always translate to cup form though.
Otherwise Real Madrid would never have won the CL in 2017/18 when they finished 17 points behind Barca in La Liga, or Liverpool in 2005 when they finished 5th or Chelsea in 2012 when they finished 6th.
Otherwise Real Madrid would never have won the CL in 2017/18 when they finished 17 points behind Barca in La Liga, or Liverpool in 2005 when they finished 5th or Chelsea in 2012 when they finished 6th.
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It always annoys me when people confuse their opinion with "favourites". If Madrid are favourites, then I challenge you to bet a significant amount of your money, because the reality is they are 2.6 to 2.7 to qualify. City on the other hand are 1.4 to 1.5
So in fact Madrid aren't favourites, they are the underdog against City.
Not by the bookies. When I watched last time there was crazy good odds on Real.
Although it could just be brittish bookies.
City also bigger favorites to win the CL than Pool and everyone else.
I do not understand what they base it on though. I guess it is just the way people bet on things in England so they will make most money having the odds this way. City score a lot so that gives fans and people rating them and they got De Bryune. Although in terms of getting wins they have been poor in CL for years and struggle in the league this season.
Right now I can get around 20 times the money for Real to win it all. Great odds in my view given Zidanes record. No Ronaldo hurts them, but if Hazard get going I still think they can score enough goals. I hold them certainly higher than Barcelona to win it. Messi is still amazing, but no Suarez and lots of problems in defense. Liverpool should be the favorites no doubts about it, but Real is my second favorite. Good odds on Juventus too.
Bayern and Barca seem very overrated by the odds next to City. Peps old clubs for some reason.
I rate teams with both strong attack and defense to win it over those with just a strong attack.
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City are looking on the rocks at the moment because they're not scoring from their numerous clear cut chances. This won't last and they will be back on track. Madrid need to find a way to prevent that while keeping City's dodgy defence under fire. These are not easy ties for either club and I can't call it.
I don't care about the bookies, City have been favorite every single time for the past 3 or 4 years and have never come close to win it
These bookies know less about football than most fans it seems.
It's all about probabilities. If a 3rd or 4th place Tottenham can reach a CL final, City can also win the tournament.
If you know it better than the bookies, it should be no problem for you to easily make a few thousands or even millions, but it isn't, and you don't know it bettter than the bookies.
If you know it better than the bookies, it should be no problem for you to easily make a few thousands or even millions, but it isn't, and you don't know it bettter than the bookies.
I made some money when we did beat City due to the crazy odds. Also City was favorite over Liverpool this season at Anfield as well.
They have been very overrated by the odds this season. I know they did great last year, but everyone should have seen that they have struggled in defense this season. No idea why the bookies have not. I guess as long as they make money on it they do not care. Although I know they ban people who bet a lot and beat them regulary so they use dirty tricks rather than adapting the odds smartly.
The tie should be close, but yeah I have never rated Manchester City when it comes to Champions League and in fact is quite fun for the team to beat Guardiola teams when we have the opportunity. So let's see how we do against them and hope is an entertaining game.
I fancied City for this tie when it was announced. But they're having a pretty poor season and Madrid's fortunes are on the rise. So Zidane has a good shot at pulling off an impressive result here especially if they can get at City's backline. Of course all is not in their hands as City on paper (especially considering the ages of the big names) are better and if they turn it on, they'll most likely take the tie. But as things stand and considering current form, Madrid could do them.
And in general, Zidane seems to have steadied the ship at Madrid for which deserves big credit. If he manages to win the league title this year it'll really add to his credentials to be able to go away and come back mid meltdown and sort the team out that well.
And in general, Zidane seems to have steadied the ship at Madrid for which deserves big credit. If he manages to win the league title this year it'll really add to his credentials to be able to go away and come back mid meltdown and sort the team out that well.
I don't think it's a matter of the bookies not knowing about football. The most likely explanation is that there's a lot more online gambling in the UK and english teams get a lot of money bet on them so it results in bigger payouts for the betting firms. Hence the shorter odds.
I wouldn't bet big against Real Madrid in the Champions League unless it was Liverpool they were playing. They have so much experience in this competition and can deal with the pressure better than most.
Bookies don’t even set the odds, uk punters have no effect on prices at all for Champions League/Prem games unless they’re staking 6 figures on Asian sites.
They just follow asian bookmakers and the prices there are formed by the best gamblers in the world (huge syndicates who spend 10s of millions creating algorithms to bet on games). They are the best in the world at gambling and they rate city better than Liverpool (as they are better in every metric basically bar points this season).
The reason city are so short is that statistically they are comfortably the best side in the world. Yesterday the XG was ridiculous for them and they lost. It was just a freak game where they couldn’t take their chances, exactly same against United midweek. Eventually they’ll start taking their chances again and syndicates know this, hence why their prices remain so low despite poor results.
City have actually been underrated by the odds this season a lot and Liverpool overrated. They’ve outplayed their handicap a lot of games. The final result doesn’t really matter for working out whether a team were under/overpriced. Fair result based on chances/quality of chances/Xg is much more important. Freak results happen and they’ve happened loads against City this season. Yesterday for example, City were a -1 asian and played out like a -1.5/-1.75 asian. Just a freak result, on another day they’d win 3-0.
Yeah understood, his teams have given youse some absolute drubbings in the past so must feel good to get a chance to repay the favor.
Champions league royalty versus Qatar royalty
Absolutely ridiculous. I'll leave it at that
If they just go by stats they will get things wrong. Being clinical is not a random variable. Poor defending is not random.
Peps side has weaknesses and bookies should take that into account from watching the games. League and CL form is also very different. Dominating Burnley is no indication they can stop Real Madrid.
Having a guy like Van Dijk to defend is no fluke either. Pool keeping more clean sheets with him is predictable based how good he is.
Most pundits agree with me and hold Pool above City for CL. Are they all wrong too? Most hold Real above them too.
I don't bet much, but made some money for Pool and against City this season. Do not think Pool getting so many wins is lucky beyond the VAR help.
One thing is certain though. City are desperate to win it, whereas for Madrid this isn't the case (more focused on the league this season). That adds pressure to City.
Please don’t, please explain why the syndicates are wrong and why my post was wrong.
Once again, explain why it’s wrong?I think this just about covers it
You’ve no idea how odds are formed or how syndicates derive correct odds for teams. City are better than Liverpool in the majority of metrics that syndicates use for deriving fair prices for games.
Liverpool are a statistical freak this season. Their XG against is 8 goals higher than the actual conceded goals. This isn’t anything to do with their defence or keeper, it’s purely down to luck with teams missing sitters against them. Liverpool are 20 points better off than they should be in terms of Xg. The 2nd best is Newcastle with 14 points more as they get battered and randomly counter. City are 6 points worse off than Xg has them. Liverpool are 5 goals better off in terms of goals scored compared to Xg, the 3rd best in league.
I am not a fan of Xg at all but it’s one of the best metrics there is for comparing fair scores and working out correct odds for betting.
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Gambling is a mug's game?
Not for professionals and gambling syndicates it isn’t.
Preach brother
Probably a lot of clueless people on the Far East too betting on the PL Champions. How else can justify Liverpool 1) the much better team currently, 2) with much more experience in the CL, 3) facing an inferior team, 4) having longer odds? It's bizarre.
In my opinion, and I have said this since last year, Real Madrid will go through. City has always been a light team, looking good cosmetically but no real substance to be a top European team. When they play Madrid they will choke.
Most fans wildly overestimate what they know about the game to be fair, and at least the bookies use as much information as possible devoid of bias and narrative. Have you seen fans debate... On here or anywhere else? We're morons.
They are 2.7 to 2.4 in betting websites. There is hardly any difference
And I think what people are missing in @Spiersey's posts is that in circles where people have lots of money on the line, it's worth giving their predictions (again based on a lot more information than the average fan is privy to) some weight. I mean, watch games too, but don't sound like a soundbite off SkyNews.
Pointing people towards the Tony Bloom example is usually a decent place to introduce laymen to the use of probability and stats. But you're generally on a losing battle when people don't realise that just because something happened doesn't mean it should have happened (and the corollary)
People suck at statistics, generally speaking. Partly because we experience life in deterministic states and that deterministic nature becomes our paradigm.
Pep has not won CL since they beat us 2011 and has been the favorite to win it every year by the bookies bar maybe his first year with City (Barca favorites then I think with Neymar, Suarez and Messi). Maybe they was slightly ahead even before that, but Pep was top 2 for Bayern at least. I don't think his team being exploited defensivly is down to bad luck for his sides. There is more to it than that. I don't know why we should trust the betting market over other experts and supporters. I have heard people saying 75% or more chance for Real to knock them out. I have also personally made money to bet against City when the odds have been great in games that should suit them poorly.
The odds for Leicester to win it was pretty insane. 5000/1 yet they did it. Not like they are football Gods who can predict the future that well in the market.
I didn't predict that either obviously, but I thought us under LVG had a chance that year despite being shit so that tells you that the top 6 was very poor that season.
Could the betting market not see that or correct the odds based on it? Do they need too since so few bet on them anyway?
Real won it 3 times in a row without being favorites. Certainly something they miss apart from Ronaldos magic. I think they underestimate what good managers can do and mental factors in the game. CL is different to the league. A different mentality and management is needed. You do only need to quality to the next round and not to win both games. Pep has never been great at dealing with that tactically and mentally. He was lucky to beat Chelsea the first time and got saved by the worst ref ever to be honest.
In his second win they deserved it more. Destroyed us in the final totally. Knocked Madrid out too.
Still he has failed 7 seasons in a row after that. What justifies them as favorites at the moment?
Last seasons league form? Maybe, but it was last season and they still didn't win the CL. Liverpool won it so what makes them better this year?
Nothing justity them as favorites for the CL if you look at this season. The best they have done is knock us out of the league cup and got a win over Leicester.
Hardly CL winner material. I guess you can say a De Bruyne is a factor, but they lost Kompany and have other injuries too.
Liverpool have two CL finals in a row and has dropped points in one game this season.
Conceded 1 league in roughly 10 league games too.
Why are they not the favorites? Them being shit in the Fa and League cup? Too much wind in Madrid?
@Paul_Scholes18 eh? Have I called them favorites to win the CL? They have a good chance, better than most people will give them, but I've not called them favorites.
I was making a more general point about how people form opinions based on very limited information, and narratives that don't hold up to what actually happened, which is shown by how readily they dismiss other viewpoints that look at more data.
You have a good point about mentality not being accounted for but it's not like most fans know how to properly assign that attribute also. If you read this forum Liverpool had a poor mentality until the CL final last season, and magically got infused with it over the summer.
I was making a more general point about how people form opinions based on very limited information, and narratives that don't hold up to what actually happened, which is shown by how readily they dismiss other viewpoints that look at more data.
You have a good point about mentality not being accounted for but it's not like most fans know how to properly assign that attribute also. If you read this forum Liverpool had a poor mentality until the CL final last season, and magically got infused with it over the summer.
Alright nothing directed against you. Just talked about the odds. I do not rule them out of course. They are a very good side. I hold them in the top 4 slightly behind Real at the moment. Liverpool first and PSG second. PSG also have poor CL form just like City, but having Neymar in form could be a big factor in my view.
Just mentioned that Pep has been pretty poor in the CL post Barcelona.
Thus I wonder why the odds always rate them so highly every season.
Seems like they go by league form and performances a bit too much. Real is very lowly rated despite being so good in CL.
Even with Ronaldo they avoided being favorites. I just do not think smashing Watford, Burnley and Aston Villa is going to help them win against the big boys in europe.
The mental qualities, defensive qualities, experience etc is something Real got more than them. The squads quality is at a similar level. Real got a stronger defense and at the moment a better keeper. De Bruyne is the best midfielder in both teams, but Real got hard workers in midfield that City lacks. Aguero is much more potent than Benzema, but Benzema got other qualites. City attack better as a team, but Real defend better as a team.
Thus it is little that City got over Real. De Bruyne could carry them with his ability. Although I expect Casemiro to do a job on him hard. Either way going to be a fun game.