Abdullah's twitter follower count has been quoted to evidence that he can 'mobilise' people.
India politics thread
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A Mint analysis of the consumption expenditure numbers reported by the National Statistical Office (NSO) in a hushed-up report suggests that rural poverty rose nearly 4 percentage points between 2011-12 and 2017-18 to 30 percent even as urban poverty fell 5 percentage points over the same period to 9 percent. Given the higher weight of the rural population, the estimated overall poverty rate went up nearly a percentage point to 23 percent in 2017-18. The rise implies that 30 million people fell below India’s official poverty line and joined the ranks of the poor over the past six years.
https://www.livemint.com/news/india/rural-poverty-has-shot-up-nso-data-shows-11575352445478.html
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Scumbags. The Gargi college fest reports are also extremely disturbing. Gundaraj has taken over and even colleges are no longer safe places.
49-21 currently in Delhi. So far so good.
i was hoping AAP would reach near to the 60 mark. Hopefully it ll finish with at least 52-53 seats
Looks like Sisodia is a goner
Small mercies for the bhakts
62-8 now. Can they take it past 65?
63-7 now.
As per ECI website, there is a seat where the BJP guy is leading by 880 odd seats, and one where the lead is 3500 seats. It is likely that it may as well end 64-8 (65-5 seems unlikely as 3500 lead seems high enough now)
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That's bloody brilliant. It would have been a disaster if Delhi had rejected all the development work done by AAP in favour of the divisive rhetoric of BJP.
Absolutely. Hopefully this also gives BJP a reality check that people are looking beyond religion. Having said that I can see BJP/Modi staying for 5 more years after the current stint too because of lack of option at national level.
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Caste and religion play a much more important role in politics outside Delhi. I think BJP will know that
I still think Congress with a new face/better leader will topple Modi. The big reason BJP won last year at national level is because most do not want to see Rahul as their PM. Let us not forget BJP have been losing a lot of state assemble elections which shows people are not overly happy with BJP.
faces don't just appear. there are no big faces in cong.
CMs/ex-CMs? amarinder is expanding exponentially, can't be good for his heart, and i dont think he has ambitions outside punjab. bhagel is unknown. gehlot is old. kamal nath has no base. (digvijay is hated). that's it, i think. ashok chavan lost nanded lok sabha and his main strength is organisational inside maharashtra. prithiviraj chauhan is a bureaucrat who is more comfortable in english. siddaramaiah is hated by his state party and will probably struggle with hindi. sheila dikshit?
the other leader with profile is sachin pilot, i've heard him speak and he's worse than rahul. all that leaves - priyanka (failed totally in UP 2019), and scindia. both are ironically dynasts themselves.
CMs/ex-CMs? amarinder is expanding exponentially, can't be good for his heart, and i dont think he has ambitions outside punjab. bhagel is unknown. gehlot is old. kamal nath has no base. (digvijay is hated). that's it, i think. ashok chavan lost nanded lok sabha and his main strength is organisational inside maharashtra. prithiviraj chauhan is a bureaucrat who is more comfortable in english. siddaramaiah is hated by his state party and will probably struggle with hindi. sheila dikshit?
the other leader with profile is sachin pilot, i've heard him speak and he's worse than rahul. all that leaves - priyanka (failed totally in UP 2019), and scindia. both are ironically dynasts themselves.
Manmohan wasn't very outspoken but was well respected by the people. The sooner congress realise people will not accept Rahul as their leader the better it is. Yes there may not be a top face in congress but you have to project someone. What excuse do they have this time too having Rahul as their face. It didn't work in 2014, didn't work in 2019, it's not working now, what makes them think it will work in 2024. The idea that we don't have any charismatic leader so better persist with Rahul is a stupid idea. They have to change their ideas and bring a new face that people can back. My thinking is I don't think the Gandhis are ready to give away their power and that is backfiring them with each passing election.faces don't just appear. there are no big faces in cong.
CMs/ex-CMs? amarinder is expanding exponentially, can't be good for his heart, and i dont think he has ambitions outside punjab. bhagel is unknown. gehlot is old. kamal nath has no base. (digvijay is hated). that's it, i think. ashok chavan lost nanded lok sabha and his main strength is organisational inside maharashtra. prithiviraj chavan is a bureaucrat who is more comfortable in english. siddaramaiah is hated by his state party and will probably struggle with hindi. sheila dikshit?
the other leader with profile is sachin pilot, i've heard him speak and he's worse than rahul. all that leaves - priyanka (failed totally in UP 2019), and scindia. both are ironically dynasts themselves.
She passed away last year btwfaces don't just appear. there are no big faces in cong.
CMs/ex-CMs? amarinder is expanding exponentially, can't be good for his heart, and i dont think he has ambitions outside punjab. bhagel is unknown. gehlot is old. kamal nath has no base. (digvijay is hated). that's it, i think. ashok chavan lost nanded lok sabha and his main strength is organisational inside maharashtra. prithiviraj chauhan is a bureaucrat who is more comfortable in english. siddaramaiah is hated by his state party and will probably struggle with hindi. sheila dikshit?
the other leader with profile is sachin pilot, i've heard him speak and he's worse than rahul. all that leaves - priyanka (failed totally in UP 2019), and scindia. both are ironically dynasts themselves.
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mms isn't a mass leader either. can you imagine him speaking at a rally? the gandhis have been parastically dominating that party since indira gandhi started destroying her strong CMs in the 70s, i don't know how they can get out of the rot now.
i forgot, which says as much about her recent career as about my memory. the last thing i remember her name for was to strongly oppose any alliance with aap in delhi lok sabha.
...
v good result for AAP, not just in terms of seats but they've retained vote-share too. (<1% drop). bjp made a substantial voteshare gain, mostly it looks like congress collapsed and most of those votes went to bjp. (Or, Cong went to AAP and some AAP went to BJP, this would make sense since Muslims were split last time but united behind AAP this time).
and for sure bjp will win any lok sabha election, for 14 months they've been losing states (7 states where they were competitive are all lost) and in the middle of that modi continues to be the most popular indian leader ever and won more than 300 in lok sabha.
I think Shah will become PM candidate in 2024
They forgot Odhisha, in that the numbers for LS/assembly are 38.4/32.5
Someone check one redsunited well being.
still salivating at Delhi Police's actions yesterday probably.
Impossible. He's been out of his depth in the first 6 months of his HM stint already. If he continues the same way, I doubt he will be anywhere near the PM position. Gadkari is a better bet than Shah at this point.
What are you talking about? His stock is higher than ever with RSS folks by delivering Article 370 dissolution and CAA act. Gadkari, who has never gotten a portfolio higher than roadways ministry is never going to be a PM. Shah's more visible media presence, almost on par with Modi in second stint of the Govt is a clear push to establish him as a successor.
It's a push from BJP obviously while media is relaying/projecting whatever instructions they receive.
However, look at him from a policy point of view:
1. Kashmir: Removing Art 370 is backfiring. No internet access for the last 6 months, any kind of opposition in that state is in detention under arbitrary charges while goras are making a trip every 3 months to display 'normalcy'. What next? What's the play here? No one knows.
2. NRC: Again, what's the play? Commit massive resources and finances given India's bureaucracy to achieve what exactly? Have we not seen how Assam went?
3. CAA/CAB: Clear miscalculation which is backfiring given the nature and duration of protests.
4. Losing state elections in multiple states over the past few months. How many 'meetings' did he organize in Delhi to win a measly 8 seats? About 50!
Sure, he can be stubborn and shout rhetorics from the stage, but from a 'policy' point of view, it's hardly going well for him.
agree with all this, but why do people think modi is on his way out? he's extremely popular personally and within the party, and a much better campaigner than shah (who as a strategist knows this). maybe shah is making a move (the whatsapp groups, which he indirectly controls, praise him more than modi), but it will be a net loss if modi is no longer the public face. when it's crunch time for any election campaign, the emergency button that bjp ushes is always a modi rally, not shah or anyone else.
He isn't. It's just that Shah is 14 years younger than him so their 'dynasty' can continue for quite a while if they get their wish. With all the talk of BJP being more of a democratic party than Congress, Modi/Shah are turning into their personal fiefdom. At least with Modi, he has no personal family to give the same as some kind of inheritance but Shah will definitely try to stay in control as long as he can. I guess in that sense having RSS with some control over their actual ground force is a check against this?
I don't think you have a clue about Indian politics other than whatever bubble you are part of. At worst, even if Modi/Shah lose support of some independents due to their decisions in last 8 months, their core supporters will never abandon them over decisions like CAA and 370. Their vote share also increase in this elections by a good 5-7%.
That's the theory, but in reality the actual karyakartas are mostly all Modi bhakts, and I don't know which side they'll pick if there's a real split. And also I think RSS didn't like him using his personality so much earlier but now with Ram Mandir and CAA and 370, they are happy, happy enough to shut up at least.
This has been true since about 2017: the point where Modi loses is when people connect him with economic issues, and don't always assume he's doing his best. Demonitisation and GST haven't touched him. Long slowdown seems to be affecting his party, but not yet him. How long will it continue, it's unbelievable. And maybe something new also - in 2004 and 09, people voted for Congress though it's central leadership wasn't that popular. Maybe after Modi people will no longer vote like that in a national election, they need a rvial PM face. In that case I think the opposition is doomed. And maybe it's to do with the fact that Congress as TINA is now not even a memory for most people, especially younger ones.
And here we go
Shots Fired At MLA Naresh Yadav After His Win In Delhi, 1 Volunteer Dead,
https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/sho...tweets-aap-2178756?pfrom=home-bigstories_live
Shots Fired At MLA Naresh Yadav After His Win In Delhi, 1 Volunteer Dead,
https://www.ndtv.com/india-news/sho...tweets-aap-2178756?pfrom=home-bigstories_live
Heh. People are voting on the brand. The cult of Modi is bigger than Brand Amit Shah. Nationally, BJP has crippled other parties of funds and that’s where their biggest win is - they can set whatever narrative they want without anyone disputing them. There was literally no opposition to vote for last year.
The question isn’t also about losing their core voters. It’s also about whether the others decide to vote against them. Congress faced a similar incumbency due to corruption. BJP is trodding down the same route with their Hindutva campaign without reviving the economy. How Kashmir/Art 370 and CAA/NRC dictate 2024 only remains to be seen but both are hardly smart moves given one is leading to alienation of one region while the other resulted in nation wide protests for almost 2 months now.
Modi is getting old. In 4 years he will be exhausted running around like a mad man desperately trying to make BJP win election after election