SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

MaxiPaxi said:
For people saying that the quarantine and curfew wouldn't work for a prolonged period of time, I'm not so sure about that. There is a lot of calls on twitter to close the pubs from a younger demographic. There is a lot of responsible people out there. Couple that with tough measures for breaking lockdown rules, we'll get through it. I'd rather save as many people as possible then worry about what impact it will have on economy. Economy is fecked either way.
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Even though I agree with lockdown measures, it's very difficult to remain isolated, people develop cabin fever and are itching to return to normal. If there were 10 foot of snow outside it might work.

With spring coming up, it might be difficult to keep people in lockdown. Perhaps the UK government think if they start it later people will respect it for just long enough, then again if the weather is really nice people might slip back into old routines after a week or so.
 
Beyond the government, people of this country need to be responsible themselves and actually try and 'care'
I for one will literally stay in as much as I possibly can in this time... I could do this and that, but I could easily find things in the house to do that entertain me.

Too many people today still think this is a joke.
One woman speaking to me today laughing at some Chinese person with a facemask and scarf around their faces.
I tried to explain...

She realises it's serious but then doesn't understand the precautions she needs to take herself
 
Nou_Camp99 said:
Seen it said earlier that if schools close that 1 in 4 NHS staff are going to be struggling to go to work due to childcare issues. This is surely the real reason for the lack of action taken. We simply can't afford to lose 1/4 of the workforce which is already not big enough due to vacancies. When the other 3/4's start getting the virus it doesn't leave us with a lot does it?
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If this goes full scale, it just won’t matter how many NHS staff are working. Italy has 20k cases and they are at the limits of what they can do. The peak could easily be 10 million at the same time, so you need to increase the number of doctors and nurses for 500 times to cope with the patients. Italy has a similar medical system to UK, and a similar number of people.

The only solution is the containment, it is simple as that. Yes, it is hard, and yes it will have catastrophic economic short term and mid term consequences. There is also no guarantee that it will work, and even if it works any will die. The alternative is tens of millions of people dying, probably even more.
 
Redlambs said:
Which is why it won't happen, and some just don't have the same responsibilities so they can't see that.
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You’re assuming that there isn’t going to be relief funds/deferred payments etc. That’s going to have to happen.
 
Starkie_1 said:
For once maybe it would be worth just doing as we’re advised and not having an uneducated opinion that leads to division in every aspect of life.
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But it's not just your average uneducated person disagreeing with what the UK is doing tbf.
 
sebsheep said:
But it's not just your average uneducated person disagreeing with what the UK is doing tbf.
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I’ve yet to see anyone who is a leading world scientist criticise the approach. Former health ministers, some university science lecturers and the usual moaning British public who are lapping up the media driven hysteria.
 
FrankDrebin said:
ETDZR33X0AEGBZD

Honestly surprised that there's a few Pot Noodles left.
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They took all the chicken & mushroom, things really need to go down hill before people take the lesser flavours.
 
I was someone who thought it was all media-inflated hype a month or so ago but it's crazy to see what's happening now. It's like something from a movie.
 
Dante said:
The computer modelling and the science suggests otherwise.

Like I said, it seems counter-intuitive. But there is rationale behind it.
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I really don't understand the rationale of having 60% of the population infected over a year. If we look at best case scenarios here in that the total time you're infected for before being cured is 2 weeks and these infections are evenly distributed over time then you are looking at:
36,000,000 (total infected) ÷ 26 (every 2 weeks) = 1,384,615 (infected every 2 weeks).
If you then work on the basis that 10% of these will have a severe infection and need to be hospitalised then you are looking at 138,462 people taking up hospital beds with coronavirus complications. If you are working on the basis that the figures in China and Italy are flawed because they don't take into account the non-symptomatic and mild cases then if 2% of all infected need hospital beds you still will have an extra 27,692 people every 2 weeks being hospitalised. Even in the best case scenario using this model will cause the NHS to collapse. This idea is fecking crazy and it needs to be changed immediately.
 
sullydnl said:
The UK's computer modelling and science says otherwise. What about the computer modelling and science other countries seem to be following? Presumably theirs is telling them something else?
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They've not accounted for the behaviour science specifically in play in the UK.

If you close schools and lockdown the country right now, masses of people will break curfew. If you don't, they're more likely to lockdown themselves to some degree. And when the official lockdown comes, they're more likely to follow it.

The UK is a uniquely recalcitrant nation. A nation, might I add, that voted for Brexit against its own best interests.

I don't see the coronavirus as a partisan issue. But the sheer number of people bringing up Johnson's name (rather than the Cheif Medical Officer's of the Chief Science Advisor's) suggests that that's what they're thinking about. Let's get it straight, we'd be following the same path even if the Labour party were in power right now.
 
On the international numbers, over 90% of cases will recover. But 9% will be seriously ill, and about 5% will require intensive care (ICU) and at least 2.5% will need ventilators.

The Government has said between 25% and 75% of the population will get the virus. If 25% of the Irish population get it, which based on the numbers above is a very low estimate, that's 1.2 million people.

5% needing intensive care means 60,000 people will need intensive care beds to stay alive.

We currently have 277 intensive care beds in Ireland.

I'm going to say that again:

At least 60,000 Irish people will need an ICU bed to stay alive.

We only have 277 ICU beds in Ireland.

If too many people get sick in a short space of time, many, many Irish men and women are going to die when they could have been saved. Ireland is a small country. This is going to be someone in your family or someone you know. Or their mother. Or their father.
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This is absolutely terrifying. fecking hell, I feel sick.
 
BluesJr said:
You’re assuming that there isn’t going to be relief funds/deferred payments etc. That’s going to have to happen.
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Is it now.

Because at this moment it's not and there's absolutely no word from the government.

So I'll be heading to work next week. If I could stay at home I would, but I can't so I'm not. That's the reality and people who act like it's going to be that easy are delusional to just how different life is for others.
 
Starkie_1 said:
I’ve yet to see anyone who is a leading world scientist criticise the approach. Former health ministers, some university science lecturers and the usual moaning British public who are lapping up the media driven hysteria.
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You can't see something if you avoid it on purpose.

Here is one.

I'll get you more if you want, I can pile them in here faster than you can watch them. Can also you paste their resumée if it bothers you too much to google for it.

 
C'est Moi Cantona said:
I know, this is what seems to be missing in any explanation of how just 'sitting at home for as long as it takes' is viable, I'd lose my house and not be able to feed my kids pretty quickly.
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Sad as it is, the alternative is to lose your house, not be able to feed your kids properly, and probably lose you lot father or grandfather. You get the point.

It is not saving lives of saving the economy. If we have 70% of people getting it, the economy is fecked either way. Dead people don’t buy things. The moderate projections put the number of dead people in par with those of WW2. Worst case projections put it significantly higher. It is not a matter of if we are going to have a deep recession or not, that is a guarantee right now.

Which is why the governments should do all it takes to do a full scale containment. Stop the mortgage payments until this is finished, at worst case even start rationing food. Yes, people will economically suffer and it is not gonna be pretty, but that was a certainty since end of January.
 
The bad news i heard from an interview with an infectious disease expert is that he expects it to return to China once the Lockdown is lifted.

This thing is fecking scary.
 
Starkie_1 said:
I’ve yet to see anyone who is a leading world scientist criticise the approach. Former health ministers, some university science lecturers and the usual moaning British public who are lapping up the media driven hysteria.
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Tim Gowers is one of the most decorated mathematicians alive, and he yesterday, essentially said (politely) that government’s plan is nuts.

Government’s plan might work at the cost of 500k-2million people dying. Maybe they should say so.
 
P-Ro said:
I really don't understand the rationale of having 60% of the population infected over a year. If we look at best case scenarios here in that the total time you're infected for before being cured is 2 weeks and these infections are evenly distributed over time then you are looking at:
36,000,000 (total infected) ÷ 26 (every 2 weeks) = 1,384,615 (infected every 2 weeks).
If you then work on the basis that 10% of these will have a severe infection and need to be hospitalised then you are looking at 138,462 people taking up hospital beds with coronavirus complications. If you are working on the basis that the figures in China and Italy are flawed because they don't take into account the non-symptomatic and mild cases then if 2% of all infected need hospital beds you still will have an extra 27,692 people every 2 weeks being hospitalised. Even in the best case scenario using this model will cause the NHS to collapse. This idea is fecking crazy and it needs to be changed immediately.
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The point is that 60% will get the disease no matter what you do. There's no positive outcome to this.

The scientific modelling is more about the correct timing for school closures and lockdown in order to get the most public compliance and minimise the unwitting spread between people in close quarters.
 
Hugh Jass said:
The bad news i heard from an interview with an infectious disease expert is that he expects it to return to China once the Lockdown is lifted.

This thing is fecking scary.
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Yeah but theyll be prepared right? Ready to stamp any clusters out from the get go and with a nation that is now educated in what to do so it shouldnt be as devestating.
Its not as if everyone starts from scratch again
 
Dante said:
The point is that 60% will get the disease no matter what you do. There's no positive outcome to this.

The scientific modelling is more about the correct timing for school closures and lockdown in order to get the most public compliance and minimise the unwitting spread between people in close quarters.
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60% seems extremely high, source?
 
Redlambs said:
Is it now.

Because at this moment it's not and there's absolutely no word from the government.

So I'll be heading to work next week. If I could stay at home I would, but I can't so I'm not. That's the reality and people who act like it's going to be that easy are delusional to just how different life is for others.
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To add to this, even if the government start offering relief funds to workers there will be a lot of businesses with no workers and nobody to sell to. When it's over a lot of people may not have their jobs to go to anyway. Then we get into the government protecting workers and companies and it gets very tricky very quickly.

It may be the right thing to do but the repercussions are huge and long lasting even if it works well.
 
Revan said:
This is insane. UK is signing a Holocaust on its own people. To make things even worse, no one is able to answer any of these questions:
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As the Deaths start to pile up, the Government's fast and loose approach and flippant comments ('take it on the chin', 'pass through the community' etc) will be played back and it will almost certainly be viewed as a Holocaust of sorts of the old and vulnerable.

MaxiPaxi said:
Theres a theory that the virus still lingers in the body -- It's basically dormant. Then it flares up again suddenly.
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Essentially like the Herpes Simplex virus... terrifying prospect.

@Arruda @Pogue Mahone could this really be possible for a severe respiratory virus? Like, you get rundown and the fecking thing comes back...? This is something that really does concern me a lot.

fergieisold said:
calm the feck down. Fatality rate is likely to be below 0.5 % overall.
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1. There's no evidence to suggest the rate is that low, and significant evidence to suggest that it's higher than that.

2. The NHS is already stretched to breaking - letting this thing run riot will literally wreck the NHS, the fatality rate will go up and up as our precious Healthcare system is overwhelmed.

Added to this, people who require urgent medical help for OTHER ISSUES (that's right, they still exist!) - people suffering Heart Attacks, Strokes, Diabetes, Car Accidents, Traumatic Injuries, Asthma attacks etc - will have a way, way higher fatality rate as the NHS is struggling to cope with the Corona pressure that the Government has dumped on them.

It will be an utter catastrophe if this policy isn't stopped ASAP.

It's a policy that only a Government who've pumped fecking MASSIVE resources and funding into their Healthcare system could be taking - even then it'd be very, very risky.

A Government who've systematically crippled it's own Healthcare system have absolutely no place even flirting with such a policy, let alone trying to con the public into actually accepting it.
 
Arruda said:
You can't see something if you avoid it on purpose.

Here is one.

I'll get you more if you want, I can pile them in here faster than you can watch them. Can also you paste their resumée if it bothers you too much to google for it.

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Sorry but..dafuq is she wearing ?
 
Revan said:
Tim Gowers is one of the most decorated mathematicians alive, and he yesterday, essentially said (politely) that government’s plan is nuts.

Government’s plan might work at the cost of 500k-2million people dying. Maybe they should say so.
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The fact that they refuse to even quantify what this 'summer peak' they're hoping for, should tell everyone it's fecking grim.
 
Revan said:
Tim Gowers is one of the most decorated mathematicians alive, and he yesterday, essentially said (politely) that government’s plan is nuts.

Government’s plan might work at the cost of 500k-2million people dying. Maybe they should say so.
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But 3 hours ago, he supported the UK idea of not banning mass gatherings.

 
Redlambs said:
Is it now.

Because at this moment it's not and there's absolutely no word from the government.

So I'll be heading to work next week. If I could stay at home I would, but I can't so I'm not. That's the reality and people who act like it's going to be that easy are delusional to just how different life is for others.
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Yes it will. This will be become apparent as it worsens. Right now, we obviously have to continue as normal as we can but this won’t go on for long.
 
Revan said:
Sad as it is, the alternative is to lose your house, not be able to feed your kids properly, and probably lose you lot father or grandfather. You get the point.

It is not saving lives of saving the economy. If we have 70% of people getting it, the economy is fecked either way. Dead people don’t buy things. The moderate projections put the number of dead people in par with those of WW2. Worst case projections put it significantly higher. It is not a matter of if we are going to have a deep recession or not, that is a guarantee right now.

Which is why the governments should do all it takes to do a full scale containment. Stop the mortgage payments until this is finished, at worst case even start rationing food. Yes, people will economically suffer and it is not gonna be pretty, but that was a certainty since end of January.
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But that needs the government to do that and guarantee that we will all at least be able to feed our families. I completely agree with and see the sense in what you are saying, 100% It's fecking obvious to me that their plan is trash. But whilst they sit on the fence and won't guarantee a damn thing, what are people expected to do?

So until they do that, what is the alternative? In a perfect world I'd do the right thing and isolate myself and my family, but since I got a nice tax bill through this morning I don't trust anything right now.
 
Starkie_1 said:
I’ve yet to see anyone who is a leading world scientist criticise the approach. Former health ministers, some university science lecturers and the usual moaning British public who are lapping up the media driven hysteria.
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As other people have pointed out, that just isn't true.
Skills said:
Looks like the curry flavour is left. I actually like that :wenger:
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Wrong'un. I only ever liked chicken & mushroom and bombay bad boy, haven't had them in years and can't have chicken & mushroom now anyway.
 
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