SARS CoV-2 coronavirus / Covid-19 (No tin foil hat silliness please)

Ekkie Thump

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From BBC

Fears 7,500 residents have died in UK care homes

"The number of coronavirus victims in Britain's care homes could be as high as 7,500, five times more than the official estimate, the sector's main charity has warned.

"Without testing, it is very difficult to give an absolute figure," Martin Green, chief executive of Care England, told The Daily Telegraph.

"However, if we look at some of the death rates since April 1 and compare them with previous years' rates, we estimate a figure of about 7,500 people may have died as a result of Covid-19."

The figure is more than five times higher than the estimate of 1,400 suggested by the government earlier this week.

Britain's official coronavirus toll currently stands at 14,576, although that only includes deaths recorded in hospitals.£


Looks like the tentative theory of most care home people ending up in the hospital rather than dying at the care home with low figures even up until late March is out the window with the increase in April. France have 7200 care home deaths so far and Barcelona I read recently have 3500 care home deaths to release.
Yeah, as soon as the ONS reported a year on year increase of 6k deaths for the week ending 3rd April it became clear there's a vast undercount in UK figures. Only 3.5k of those were officially connected to Covid-19. Figures for up to the 10th come out next Tuesday and they'll certainly show the same trend.
 

Sparky Rhiwabon

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It's great news.

I was getting a bit worried the daily deaths were continuing to rise even though they were telling us that the transmission rate was <=1.

Glad he's released the graph comparing the figures based on the actual date the deaths occured (red bar) to those we've seen to date (line) which were based on when they were notified of them.

It's gives a totally different picture.

Looks like we're over the peak now.
 

redshaw

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Ireland could stage England's premier league end and have fans in the stands watching at this rate.
 

sammsky1

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Copied from facebook:

All Shopping centres in Hamburg (and around in Germany) will open again from Monday .
There are strict regulations to be followed in each Store and in mall-hallways , so yes it is the same safe as in any other location you have been, last 6 weeks.
Due to strict regulations - some locations in the malls will first open during next week, not on Monday.
 

Adisa

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The care home of my father in law have told us that if any resident gets it they won't be taken to hospital as the hospital will just send them straight back. I think this is the case for all care homes across the country as well.
Wtf? Why?
 

antsmithmk

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Updated graph of deaths in England by day of death. Reported deaths grew by 46 to 784. Certainly seems like we've at least reached a plateau.

Orange is a 5 day trailing average, hopefully it remains above the daily death line.
Last 5-7 days will see large to moderate upward changes:
What is series 1 in this graph?
 

sammsky1

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What’s it like to be a grocery store worker right now?

 

antsmithmk

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Number of deaths by day of death (as opposed to day of reporting).
Thank You.

would it be fair to say that because of a delay in reporting some deaths, series 1 could be revised upwards at any point for the last couple of weeks?
 

Pogue Mahone

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You're right about the T-cells, they store memory of the virus when they engulf the virus, its structure and the RNA inside it. Plus, since a large percentage of cases are mild and even asymptomatic, this would mean a reduced production of antibodies, maybe even negligible enough to not show on a test.


Interesting.
 

Ekkie Thump

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Thank You.

would it be fair to say that because of a delay in reporting some deaths, series 1 could be revised upwards at any point for the last couple of weeks?
Yeah, absolutely. Especially the last 5 - 7 days. The distribution of reported deaths trails off the further back in time you go. Usually the biggest (3 digit) boosts are from 2 - 3 days ago. Then you get mid 2 figure boosts for the next 3-4 days, then it goes into the teens for a couple more, then random single digit bumps.

The big drop off at the end of the graph should be discounted. The way things've been going though it does seem that recent figures will remain below that of the 8th of April and at least in the short term continue to (very slowly) fall going forward.

Edit: @lynchie posted a useful graph for seeing how each day's reported deaths are distributed going back into the past:


 
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Sarni

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It's absolutely horrifying what is going on in America right now. With the way they are handling it and the way the right wing media is conditioning the public to think it's some sort of hoax, it's really don't difficult to imagine the mortality rate is going to be into the millions. The worst of it is that the country is so partisan right now that, despite their being clearly one side trying to save lives and the other sacrificing lives to save the economy ("their own wealth" is more apt), the right wing media machine is so fecking powerful that no matter how bad it gets, blame and anger will always be directed in one direction. The worst thing about that is that anger and the appetite for blame is going to be absolutely fierce.

I think the civil unrest caused by the criminal handling of this crisis at federal level and the hatred and blame being dished out could end up costing as many lives as the virus itself.
And even if it goes into millions morons will still say it’s a hoax because ‘those people would have died anyway’ and ‘it’s just another flu’ not to mention the good old ‘do you know anyone who died?’
 

DatIrishFella

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It's absolutely horrifying what is going on in America right now. With the way they are handling it and the way the right wing media is conditioning the public to think it's some sort of hoax, it's really don't difficult to imagine the mortality rate is going to be into the millions. The worst of it is that the country is so partisan right now that, despite their being clearly one side trying to save lives and the other sacrificing lives to save the economy ("their own wealth" is more apt), the right wing media machine is so fecking powerful that no matter how bad it gets, blame and anger will always be directed in one direction. The worst thing about that is that anger and the appetite for blame is going to be absolutely fierce.

I think the civil unrest caused by the criminal handling of this crisis at federal level and the hatred and blame being dished out could end up costing as many lives as the virus itself.
America is fecked, no doubts.

I voted Sinn Feinn, Greens, PBP etc in the most recent elections but I can see Leo and his team are doing a fantastic job during this pandemic.

It may not change my voting preference in the future, but hats off to the administration.

The loyalty to dems/gop is awful. Doesnt help when the yanks finally get someone (Bernie) who wants actual change yet they go for Biden.

Dems are just as bad as GOP.
 

groovyalbert

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United Kingdom
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15,887​
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Officially unofficially broke past Italy without much fuss and a two week heads up.
I feel that the UK moved too late in initial areas (London) and too fast to lockdown others meaning that we're now seeing the worst of both scenarios - too late to act in the most populous part of the country, and people feeling the drain of lockdown in other parts of the country at a time when they need to be following it the most.

From the numbers that the UK is posting still after 4 weeks of lockdown, I just don't see enough evidence to point to real success - other than ICU's not being "technically" overrun, in theory, due to new units being opened fast.

In my gut I just don't feel we have the cultural habits or expectations to deal with this effectively. I reckon the government is just waiting for people to get bored of lockdown before softening restrictions rather than expecting any genuine breakthrough/decrease in number of cases/fatalities. They're essentially willing to drops the hearts from a hearts and minds campaign.
 

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Cardboard elk

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FFS. Sure this is punishable by law?
Yeah, should think so. Seeing you are from Barcelona, I remember the same somewhere in Spain in late march (?), I remember there was to be an investigation and those responsible was going to be punished. I think the canadians are also investigating the one I posted. Should be a very long sentence imo. Neglect of duty with fatal consequences.

Edit : thinking about this, when shit like this happens in Europe and Canada, what will happen in the poor countries. We will propably not even hear about it in the news from many places around the globe.
 

Pexbo

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Horrible news from canada. All but two caregivers left the nursing home for 130 elders, while the relatives were told to avoid visits due to Covid-19. Several dead and people left for themselves in excrements and without food for days.. :( How is this possible. I hope there will be severe punishment for those responsible.

https://www.barrons.com/news/horrors-revealed-at-virus-hit-canada-nursing-home-01587174605
This happened in Italy too at a number of places didn’t it?
 

Dwazza Gunnar Solskjær

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FFS. Sure this is punishable by law?
In Canada, as in other like minded affluent countries I'm sure, a person's right to refuse dangerous work as long as they have reasonable cause to believe that it presents a danger to themselves is protected by law, so these personal support workers (PSWs) won't be punished, nor should they be.

This situation is very much the fault of the governments involved and the care home industry. PSWs are low paid and often work at more than one care home, which has contributed to thes spread of the virus in these environments. There''ll be and official "inquiry" but everyone will come out smelling like roses.
 

Pexbo

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As sources said a while back, it looks like the UK will end up with the most deaths of any country in Europe.
By design. The government admitted it early on, there needs to be an inquiry when this is over.
 

massi83

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Yes, quite positive. There has been plenty of criticism of the study also though. https://medium.com/@balajis/peer-re...in-santa-clara-county-california-1f6382258c25

I would wait for the results from Gangelt, Germany, to be published. Almost a whole population study is better, than the biases in a facebook-targeted study group. Also the lower limit of 0.12% isn't really possible, as Lombardy (not to mention Bergamo) and NYC already have more deaths.
 

Cardboard elk

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In Canada, as in other like minded affluent countries I'm sure, a person's right to refuse dangerous work as long as they have reasonable cause to believe that it presents a danger to themselves is protected by law, so these personal support workers (PSWs) won't be punished, nor should they be.

This situation is very much the fault of the governments involved and the care home industry. PSWs are low paid and often work at more than one care home, which has contributed to thes spread of the virus in these environments. There''ll be and official "inquiry" but everyone will come out smelling like roses.
Maybe not the workers fault, no. But we do not know that so thats to early to say. You can not just leave people that can not help themselves in their beds, not ask for help or tell anyone about it, not answer the relatives calls and just hide them until they die of thirst and lack of nutrition or disease. I do not know the particulars, but obviously someone with responsibilities has violated laws and must be held responsible. It needn't be the PSWs, it can be management or government of course. Refusing to work due to lack of PPE, I can understand. That means you tell your boss. And he tells the authorities he has no workers. And if no workers can be found, next of kin is told and can help. Avoiding telling authorities and next of kin while people die? Not acceptable. Also, it means feck what pay people have regarding this imo.
 

4bars

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Yeah, should think so. Seeing you are from Barcelona, I remember the same somewhere in Spain in late march (?), I remember there was to be an investigation and those responsible was going to be punished. I think the canadians are also investigating the one I posted. Should be a very long sentence imo. Neglect of duty with fatal consequences.

Edit : thinking about this, when shit like this happens in Europe and Canada, what will happen in the poor countries. We will propably not even hear about it in the news from many places around the globe.
Yeah, I have a friend that her grandma was in a similar situation but not in such extreme. Food was being catered but the company refuse to bring it to the rooms as usual and had to be the cleaners who did it.

+ 100 elders infected (1 day before they release it to the press, they said to my friend that only 1) 90% of workers infected and some left the post leaving them mostly unattended but as I say, not at that extreme and they reacted decently when found out

IN another elderly home of the same company, 30 nuns that were the carers fled (christian values and so) and the priest found 10 deaths living among the living

And I ASSUME that non develope countries have much elderly homes, because they don't have as much and they usually live with their families and probably elderly homes are for the rich.

But when will hit, and it will, will be a massacre for years as if for whatever reason we develope a vaccine in 12-18 months ( if everything goes perfect) they will be the last in the mass production of it
 

4bars

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In Canada, as in other like minded affluent countries I'm sure, a person's right to refuse dangerous work as long as they have reasonable cause to believe that it presents a danger to themselves is protected by law, so these personal support workers (PSWs) won't be punished, nor should they be.

This situation is very much the fault of the governments involved and the care home industry. PSWs are low paid and often work at more than one care home, which has contributed to thes spread of the virus in these environments. There''ll be and official "inquiry" but everyone will come out smelling like roses.
not the personal support workers but the responsibles of the elderly homes (private or public responsibles) to not find a solution (improving on money and safety the current workers to retain them or finding new ones)
 

Cardboard elk

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And I ASSUME that non develope countries have much elderly homes, because they don't have as much and they usually live with their families and probably elderly homes are for the rich.

But when will hit, and it will, will be a massacre for years as if for whatever reason we develope a vaccine in 12-18 months ( if everything goes perfect) they will be the last in the mass production of it
Yes you are propably correct about this in most poorer nations. Anyways, as you say, going to be bad :(
 

Dwazza Gunnar Solskjær

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Maybe not the workers fault, no. But we do not know that so thats to early to say. You can not just leave people that can not help themselves in their beds, not ask for help or tell anyone about it, not answer the relatives calls and just hide them until they die of thirst and lack of nutrition or disease. I do not know the particulars, but obviously someone with responsibilities has violated laws and must be held responsible. It needn't be the PSWs, it can be management or government of course. Refusing to work due to lack of PPE, I can understand. That means you tell your boss. And he tells the authorities he has no workers. And if no workers can be found, next of kin is told and can help. Avoiding telling authorities and next of kin while people die? Not acceptable. Also, it means feck what pay people have regarding this imo. Like the dude at mc donald knowingly can give me contaminated food since he has a low wage and can get away with it.
Yes, I think I clearly suggested it's down to government and facility administration, although I referred the industry as a whole.

The story notes all but two people walked off the job. I'm certain the two who remained are registered nurses and the rest are PSWs, as that's how these homes are staffed. Absolutely not the worker's fault this happened. They're not in violation of any law by protecting themselves. PSWs have very difficult and unpleasant jobs, are poorly remunerated and are in environments where they're currently at very high risk of contracting a disease that could kill them, and has in a neighbouring province. The facility's administration should shoulder a lot of blame, some of which they can share with the government. This didn't happen overnight.

The pay of the people who walked off the job is important to the debate because, as noted, they often work at more than one facility, which has contributed to the spread of COVID19 among care home populations. If they only had to work at one facility the problem in this very specific demographic wouldn't be so bad. That's a combination of workers making low wage and a lack of workers, but the lack of workers is also influenced by the rate of pay.
 

2cents

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Seems to me that Covid-19 should have been absolutely tearing through South America, sub-Saharan Africa and tropical Asia by now. I know numbers may be dodgy and all that, but surely we’d be hearing of major outbreaks by now if this virus is as potent in tropical climates as in more temperate regions? Or maybe I’m missing some major news.
 

golden_blunder

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Yes, I think I clearly suggested it's down to government and facility administration, although I referred the industry as a whole.

The story notes all but two people walked off the job. I'm certain the two who remained are registered nurses and the rest are PSWs, as that's how these homes are staffed. Absolutely not the worker's fault this happened. They're not in violation of any law by protecting themselves. PSWs have very difficult and unpleasant jobs, are poorly remunerated and are in environments where they're currently at very high risk of contracting a disease that could kill them, and has in a neighbouring province. The facility's administration should shoulder a lot of blame, some of which they can share with the government. This didn't happen overnight.

The pay of the people who walked off the job is important to the debate because, as noted, they often work at more than one facility, which has contributed to the spread of COVID19 among care home populations. If they only had to work at one facility the problem in this very specific demographic wouldn't be so bad. That's a combination of workers making low wage and a lack of workers, but the lack of workers is also influenced by the rate of pay.
I agree with everything that you’re both saying. Been reading a bit more, seems the owner is a bit of a dodgy person too with convictions for fraud and tax evasion.
Surely the 2 remaining staff should have called the health board for help if the owners didn’t when the others walked out. It’s too much for 2 people to run. I know from my mums own care home
 

4bars

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Seems to me that Covid-19 should have been absolutely tearing through South America, sub-Saharan Africa and tropical Asia by now. I know numbers may be dodgy and all that, but surely we’d be hearing of major outbreaks by now if this virus is as potent in tropical climates as in more temperate regions? Or maybe I’m missing some major news.
Maybe combination of several factors? less mobility, younger age, as you say different climates and massive undereporting
 

Dwazza Gunnar Solskjær

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I agree with everything that you’re both saying. Been reading a bit more, seems the owner is a bit of a dodgy person too with convictions for fraud and tax evasion.
Surely the 2 remaining staff should have called the health board for help if the owners didn’t when the others walked out. It’s too much for 2 people to run. I know from my mums own care home
Yeah it's hard to say. There's probably a chain of command at the facility where they medical staff go to the director and the director goes to the authorities. It's got to be difficult, whether you're a dodgy fecker or not.

It wouldn't take long for everything to get out of hand with only two staff.
 

caid

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Yes, I think I clearly suggested it's down to government and facility administration, although I referred the industry as a whole.

The story notes all but two people walked off the job. I'm certain the two who remained are registered nurses and the rest are PSWs, as that's how these homes are staffed. Absolutely not the worker's fault this happened. They're not in violation of any law by protecting themselves. PSWs have very difficult and unpleasant jobs, are poorly remunerated and are in environments where they're currently at very high risk of contracting a disease that could kill them, and has in a neighbouring province. The facility's administration should shoulder a lot of blame, some of which they can share with the government. This didn't happen overnight.

The pay of the people who walked off the job is important to the debate because, as noted, they often work at more than one facility, which has contributed to the spread of COVID19 among care home populations. If they only had to work at one facility the problem in this very specific demographic wouldn't be so bad. That's a combination of workers making low wage and a lack of workers, but the lack of workers is also influenced by the rate of pay.
Lack of pay and other benefits seems to be a problem across industries at the moment. Its hard to see a compelling reason for someone stacking shelves in a supermarket to go into work with no protection at the moment beyond financial desperation. Same for warehouse workers, public bus drivers, even nurses. They dont get paid anywhere near enough relative to the risks they're taking to keep us from all sorts of nightmare scenarios. Large parts of our necessities are built on poverty and desperation which doesn't strike me as a particularly stable system
 

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Slightly off topic, but has anybody else noticed that every single news channels video interviews with politicians, experts, scientist's etc has to have them sitting in front of shelves with books on them. Every single one of them almost. I'm expecting to see pictures of books soon, behind people being interviewed who don't have any real books or shelving that they could make pretend books to put on.

It's to show that they are intelligent qualified types. Hilarious to watch all the interviews to see how many do this with the backgrounds, and what some of the book titles are (Hitler was one of them the other day).

If it's not shelves of books it's pictures or certificates on the wall. Obviously the news channels request this shot, and it's not just the person being interviewed who does this. I find it funny anyway.

I'm hoping some expert comes on and they've got multiple page 3's in the background, or all their books are pre school kids books. Just to see if anyone actually notices.

Oh well, that's my contribution to the thread.
 

Skills

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Maybe combination of several factors? less mobility, younger age, as you say different climates and massive undereporting
This can't be underestimated. A lot of poor countries don't even have a record of their citizens. You have to be on the system to even be recorded as a death.
 

sammsky1

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Has anyone seen data-sets or graphs for deaths per week or average deaths per month 2015 - 2020 across major covid19 affected nations?
Or deaths per week, split out between covid19 vs non covid 19?

Presumably the season H1N1 & mutations flu is still circuiting this year? How many people usually died of that virus and other known flu's this year, and are we also seeing same number of those deaths as previous years?

I'm trying to get a sense on how much higher the death rates are because of this virus.
 

sammsky1

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Seems to me that Covid-19 should have been absolutely tearing through South America, sub-Saharan Africa and tropical Asia by now. I know numbers may be dodgy and all that, but surely we’d be hearing of major outbreaks by now if this virus is as potent in tropical climates as in more temperate regions? Or maybe I’m missing some major news.

From what I've seen/read/heard, infection and death numbers across Asia (outside China & Japan) and Middle East are consistently low , and my personal anecdotal evidence from the region supports that.

Under testing, much younger population profiles, more strictly observed lockdowns and stronger immune systems and covid19 being less potent in hot environments are popular explanations.

Which makes the higher ratio of BAME deaths in UK even more puzzling.
 
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Bojan11

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You screwed up as a Tory when Murdochs paper is having a go at you.

Boris needs to pay after this is over.
 

arnie_ni

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Random question. See if there was a lockdown for say 3 weeks. I mean total lockdown, no one leaving their homes whatsoever.

Would the virus just have died away?

Obviously this wouldnt have been feasible in any way im just curious