If this were an ordinary election year with no COVID, the usual party conventions, full on in-person campaigning in all the swing states, and wall to wall media coverage of the elections - then Trump would have a decent chance of gradually chipping away at Biden’s lead. With everything that’s happening in recent weeks, it seems like COVID will continue to dominate political narratives, which will make it very hard for Trump to claw his way back.
Still, i can’t help but recall 88, when Dukakis came out of the convention (which took place today exactly 32 years ago) with a double digit lead, only to have Bush roar back and win the Gen fairy easily.