2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress

[InfiniteBoredom]

RCP average have always been off inside a normal polling error for Florida since 2012.

Romney +1.5-> Obama 0.9
Crist + 0.6 -> Scott + 1.1
Trump + 0.4 -> Trump 1.2
Gillum +3.6 -> DeSantis + 0.8
Nelson +2.4-> Scott + 0.2

Since it became a battleground state in 92, of all the votes casted between all elections since, there were 20k difference in total between Dems/GOP.

It’s a toss up. A poll or two won’t change that fact. It’s understandable that everybody is skittish after ‘16 and ‘18 but it’s useless panicking. We are in the same position one week before, now, and E-Day before poll closes.

 

[Frosty]

How much weight is there in the amount of early voting going on whilst Biden has had a significant lead? Is there evidence to say that independents and floating voters may have voted early for Biden, meaning Trump has more of a mountain to climb?

 

[owlo]

@sport2793 yougov are pretty solid (they do a mix of online and landline polling iirc so reach slightly different demographics) - Their polls seem to tally with the actual data. I don't like to really pretend I understand florida, as it's hella weird - but 6.5M have voted. (45% of total, about the same as the poll too.) If 6.5M is 45% we're on track for a 14+ million turnout. (Compared to 9.4M in 2016)

I really see no scenario where higher turnout is good for trump.

 

[InfiniteBoredom]

How much weight is there in the amount of early voting going on whilst Biden has had a significant lead? Is there evidence to say that independents and floating voters may have voted early for Biden, meaning Trump has more of a mountain to climb?

If you can look past the inane American football talk, it’s a decent summary.

He was campaign manager in Florida for Obama 08/12, and is currently responsible for running operations in a few states. Long time Biden loyalist.

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[owlo]

How much weight is there in the amount of early voting going on whilst Biden has had a significant lead? Is there evidence to say that independents and floating voters may have voted early for Biden, meaning Trump has more of a mountain to climb?

https://countyballotfiles.floridados.gov/VoteByMailEarlyVotingReports/PublicStats

D: 42%
R: 37%
I: 20%

 

[RedTiger]

Damn @Florida Man , Obama taking shots at you bro!

 

[Dr. Dwayne]

I get using China as an example, but why Russia? Russia is not in the ascendancy in any way. They have a failing economy and a shrinking population. As for China flexing its muscles, that is undeniably true. But of the two, the US is still the only country with military bases in half the world's countries and overt and covert interventions across the world the past few decades.

Chinese influence is nefarious, which is why Europe needs to stand together. But we also need to stand together against a potential far right-dominated US. Trump's probable defeat may defeat Trumpism, but Trumpism is a symptom of crypto-fascism, not the cause of it.

Europe is heavily dependent on Russia for energy.
Then you have Russian aggression in Ukraine and the Crimea that went completely unchecked. They shot down a Dutch plane and nothing happened.

I expect we're going to see China's influence increasing over the coming years to the detriment of the US.

 

[massi83]

It usually plays a big part in getting to 270. Although this time may be a bit different since Trump may lose any of Arizona, Georgia, or NC, which would completely negate the value of winning FL.

His best chance is to hold serve in FL, GA, & NC, and somehow sneak a win in PA, which would put him at 272.

Spoiler: 272

Happy to take a bet that KS isn’t blue or MN red

 

[Raoul]

Happy to take a bet that KS isn’t blue or MN red

Yep. good spot.

 

[Frosty]

Yep. good spot.

It actually shows how many routes Biden has to 270 that if you turn KS red and MN blue, Biden wins 270-268 (if my maths is right)

 

[Raoul]

It actually shows how many routes Biden has to 270 that if you turn KS red and MN blue, Biden wins 270-268 (if my maths is right)

I'm always looking at the most plausible paths for Trump to win. I suppose he could still pull it off if he some won Arizona (reversing KS/MN from the last post). His challenge is he would need to run the table again, which as opposed to last time, won't be so easy when he's down 8 in the national polls.

 

[Jippy]

Europe is heavily dependent on Russia for energy.
Then you have Russian aggression in Ukraine and the Crimea that went completely unchecked. They shot down a Dutch plane and nothing happened.

I expect we're going to see China's influence increasing over the coming years to the detriment of the US.

MH17? Dutch prosecutors, but Malaysian flight. Not sure where the court case is at right now tbh.

www.ukrinform.net/amp/rubric-polytics/3107718-court-hearing-in-mh17-trial-starts.html

 

[Tom Van Persie]

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[utdalltheway]

Dropped off the ballots at the ballot box located outside the public library earlier. Done!
Also, noticed that even for the few minutes we were there about 4 or 5 other folks came by too to drop theirs off.
So, that’s it - early voting is on! I live in a smallish town (<70k people) in Southern California.

 

[berbatrick]

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seems like he could be getting a little more out of the data he posted - 2 FL and 2 NC polls at the bottom might mean there is a tightening in those 2 states.

 

[Dr. Dwayne]

Dropped off the ballots at the ballot box located outside the public library earlier. Done!
Also, noticed that even for the few minutes we were there about 4 or 5 other folks came by too to drop theirs off.
So, that’s it - early voting is on! I live in a smallish town (<70k people) in Southern California.

Hopefully it wasn't one of them fake boxes the Republicans put out.

 

[sglowrider]

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... 0.1 points toward Trump.

 

[sport2793]

... 0.1 points toward Trump.

Nate Silver is becoming the master of feeding doomscrollers. I largely think his data extrapolation to the political environment is divorced from reality. He's a case study in why you can't just rely on a bunch of numbers to accurately assess a national election.

Don't get me wrong, he's obviously one of, if not the best, at understanding the numbers, confidence intervals, poll quality and the like.

 

[MrMarcello]

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Civiqs has Trump by 15?

Is that how I'm reading this? Who the feck runs that poll, Bannon?

 

[Raoul]

Civiqs has Trump by 15?

Is that how I'm reading this? Who the feck runs that poll, Bannon?

Its for Mississippi

 

[WPMUFC]

yep, he knows he's in trouble. He just said at the Nebraska rally "you folks know we have to win two Nebraska's right"

 

[Florida Man]

Damn @Florida Man , Obama taking shots at you bro!

Obama can suck my dick from the back

 

[Sweet Square]

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[Redplane]

Since when is Marine One being used to directly fly a President to a political campaign rally? Maybe it happened before (just cant recall seeing it).

 

[Shane88]

Donald wishes he could blitz those stairs like Joe.

 

[mav_9me]

Does this indicate anything? Looks sad the way he is begging. Not sure if it means anything though. As he might just be trying to get his base to come vote.

 

[Sir Matt]

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[WI_Red]

The dodgers just won the World Series. feck 2020. The good news is that this, plus Liverpool, has sucked so much out of the 2020 vortex that Trump has no chance.

 

[Redplane]

The dodgers just won the World Series. feck 2020. The good news is that this, plus Liverpool, has sucked so much out of the 2020 vortex that Trump has no chance.

Proof that the commie demonrats who have been running California set all those wildfires and created Covid just so their liberal Hollywood fans could make the Dodgers win while the country is distracted!!!

 

[utdalltheway]

Hopefully it wasn't one of them fake boxes the Republicans put out.

I heard about them. Michelle Steel’s GOP did it in this area, supposedly. Then they said it was because the democrats did it 1st.

 

[Ayush_reddevil]

Noob question but with all that is happening with the voting, is it still likely that we would know on the 3rd who has won the election or is it likely to take a few days . I don't mean the full numbers obviously but just will they be able to call the elections on the same night. Thanks

 

[WPMUFC]

jesus christ, they are threatening to take down license plate numbers and "make sure they vote for trump...they have no choice"

 

[sglowrider]

jesus christ, they are threatening to take down license plate numbers and "make sure they vote for trump...they have no choice"

They are the 2020 freedom fighters.

 

[prateik]

Isn't it a secret ballot? Who cares what someone says.. Go in and vote for anyone you like.

 

[WPMUFC]

Isn't it a secret ballot? Who cares what someone says.. Go in and vote for anyone you like.

the goal of intimidation isn't to change the vote per se, it can be simply to create enough concern and doubt about safety that "well i might vote tomorrow if they are not there" might take hold in the victims mind.

Some people will laugh it off as a trump loon, but you don't think that exact display being used against a more timid person may have an effect?

 

[KirkDuyt]

dial-up, the image loads 1 bar at a time

Feck I remember the were just before the boobs would become visible it turned into a screaming monster. Fecking pissed myself.

Europe is heavily dependent on Russia for energy.
Then you have Russian aggression in Ukraine and the Crimea that went completely unchecked. They shot down a Dutch plane and nothing happened.

I expect we're going to see China's influence increasing over the coming years to the detriment of the US.

Their defense for the plane is amazing. Reminds me of that bit Eddie Murhpy did about Mister T.

 

[Smores]

jesus christ, they are threatening to take down license plate numbers and "make sure they vote for trump...they have no choice"

Holy shit, I'm guessing that type of display isn't usual for polling locations in the US?

I get pissed off if anyone is wearing a small political rosette never mind a parade of people with flags

 

[FrankDrebin]

jesus christ, they are threatening to take down license plate numbers and "make sure they vote for trump...they have no choice"

A special kind of stupid.

 

[TheGame]

The right are really pushing this Hunter Biden story now. There was an interview with Tucker Carlson last night with someone which gained some reaction. Signs of desperation I think and trying to repeat the Hilary Comey story but unsure what impact it will have.

 

[Player Red]

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Will be disappointed if no-one creates a vid of Biden going down these steps next to Trump on the ramp.