Pogue Mahone
The caf's Camus.
Worth mentioning that the Oxford vaccine uses a viral vector, so pre-existing immunity to the vector would reduce efficacy. Which might cause different efficacy in different regions.
You can't prove that. There is NO Certainty to anything. Some people have never got Flu vaccine and many other vaccines, so how can you say that, when there is NO Proof.It is not certain that any particular individual that refuses vaccine will die, it is certain that many of them will.
Every single person that has died, 50,000+ in Britain alone, had 'escaped it so far' before they caught it. And, sadly, died.
To be honest, it's the second dose thing that bothers me most. As you say, some people will have side-effects, some people may just not have liked the whole going to the vaccine car park, or push through a sports centre thing, or the travel to get there. People will sometimes make decisions based on comfort factors - including some of the people most vulnerable to covid disease.Also, this will sound silly but the pfizer vaccine is apparently quite painful ( I haven't seen the data yet). This might sound like a silly point (and for most of us on here, it would be) but with an increasingly vaccine skeptic population, 2 painful jabs a month apart...may mean that some people don't turn up for their 2nd jab.
Maybe all eggs in one basket is a bit strong, but in terms of order size and when the respective vaccines should be available to the UK:The UK hasn't put all its eggs into one basket at all, they've pre-ordered literally hundreds of millions of vaccine doses from, I believe, 6 or 7 different candidates, encompassing all types of vaccine development. I don't foresee that any country is going to vaccinate all its population with just one type of vaccine anyway, especially in the short to medium term.
Was talking to a friend who works in biotech and he was slightly less bullish about some of the data, in particular the current lack of data about whether the vaccines actually stops infection totally (as opposed to stopping serious infections, which of course is still an amazing win) and subsequently, whether this actually would reduce community transmission from an asymptomatic carrier from their upper respiratory tract. Not quite as much of an issue in a situation where there's widespread vaccine uptake but that won't be the case immediately of course and also we have the issue with anti-vaxxers.
Also, this will sound silly but the pfizer vaccine is apparently quite painful ( I haven't seen the data yet). This might sound like a silly point (and for most of us on here, it would be) but with an increasingly vaccine skeptic population, 2 painful jabs a month apart...may mean that some people don't turn up for their 2nd jab.
We'll see. Perhaps long term, an intranasal vaccine or something may be the best but there's a lot of good news for the short term anyway.
That makes sense. I suppose in time work could be done on using several vectors to reduce the chance of pre-existing immunity, and maybe testing individuals for immunity first to decide which version to give them. Trying to develop a viral vector that people couldn't develop immunity to might not be such a good idea though.Worth mentioning that the Oxford vaccine uses a viral vector, so pre-existing immunity to the vector would reduce efficacy. Which might cause different efficacy in different regions.
But potentially up to 90+% with a second shot.Now we know why the Oxford/AstraZeneca scientists were out talking their vaccine up last week. Trying to play catch up and keep the share price fall to a minimum this morning. 70% is good but not great in context.
That wouldn’t be too clever alright!That makes sense. I suppose in time work could be done on using several vectors to reduce the chance of pre-existing immunity, and maybe testing individuals for immunity first to decide which version to give them. Trying to develop a viral vector that people couldn't develop immunity to might not be such a good idea though.
But actually 90% with the regime that will be given once approved. Excellent news.Not terrible but obviously not as good as the mRNA vaccines which is hardly a surprise.
Isnt that potential criticism with the benefit of hindsight? You’d always assume that the majority of orders would have been placed on the domestically developed vaccine, that is of course from a timing perspective when eficacy rates were unknown.Maybe all eggs in one basket is a bit strong, but in terms of order size and when the respective vaccines should be available to the UK:
Oxford - 100m - December/January
Pfizer - 40m - small number in December, then into 2021
Moderna - 5m - Spring 2021
Valneva - 60m - H2 2021
Novovax - 60m - mid 2021
Janssen - 60m - mid 2021
Sanofi - 60m - spring 2021
If for any reason the Oxford vaccine falls short you can see the UK might have a problem.
You can't always account for stupidity.A lot of people will not take the vaccine until it is proven for 1 year at least.
Well by the time most people are eligible for a shot they'd have a years worth of data to fall back on, bearing in mind testing started as early back as April. But I don't expect many ignorant people will take that into account and will assume the clock starts in December.A lot of people will not take the vaccine until it is proven for 1 year at least.
Most of those idiots will soon change their mind once the media spin changes to “X% of people REFUSING to take MIRACLE vaccine dying in hospitals”A lot of people will not take the vaccine until it is proven for 1 year at least.
Huh? I'm not sure you understand either the evidence nor statistical probability.How do you reach that conclusion, when they have escaped so far. Do you know something that even Doctors and Scientists can't predict.
What does this even mean?You can't prove that. There is NO Certainty to anything. Some people have never got Flu vaccine and many other vaccines, so how can you say that, when there is NO Proof.
Too early to come to that conclusion. We don’t yet know which regime will be approved. It looks as though the 90% efficacy cohort has much lower patient numbers, which could be a problem when it comes to getting a license. They’ll be kicking themselves they didn’t go with that dose in the Phase III trial, that’s for sure.But actually 90% with the regime that will be given once approved. Excellent news.
Some people will only take it if they know somebody who has received it and been ok - you could tell them that 2 million people have taken the vaccine with no side effects and that will have no impact until Doris down the road gets it and seems ok.Well by the time most people are eligible for a shot they'd have a years worth of data to fall back on, bearing in mind testing started as early back as April. But I don't expect many ignorant people will take that into account and will assume the clock starts in December.
Why is 90% as stated for one half followed by a full dose underwhelming?Oxford vaccine result a little underwhelming?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...eneca-covid-vaccine-everything-we-know-so-far
It isn't, but it might feel underwhelming if people just read some of the very misleading and frankly irresponsible headlines that some papers are leading with citing 70%Why is 90% as stated for one half followed by a full dose underwhelming?
Why is 90% as stated for one half followed by a full dose underwhelming?
I agree that they have royally cocked up the media release of these results, especially to a completely uneducated audience who have only been primed with the Pzier and Moderna results, with no understanding on what they mean.It isn't, but it might feel underwhelming if people just read some of the very misleading and frankly irresponsible headlines that some papers are leading with citing 70%
Give very vulnerable or elderly people the Moderna one and give main population or those under 50, the 90% version of Oxford one?Dont buy the “eggs in one basket” thing
Apart from oxford we’ve ordered millions of doses for the other two
Wasn't it a chimp virus though? How many people have pre-existing immunity to chimp cooties?Worth mentioning that the Oxford vaccine uses a viral vector, so pre-existing immunity to the vector would reduce efficacy. Which might cause different efficacy in different regions.
Twas indeed a chimp virus but possible there’s some cross-reactivity to similar human viruses.Wasn't it a chimp virus though? How many people have pre-existing immunity to chimp cooties?
Oh jeez, once the loons find out it's a chimp virus there's going to be more of them than ever. It's going to turn us all into chimpanzees I tell you, and you can't prove otherwise.Twas indeed a chimp virus but possible there’s some cross-reactivity to similar human viruses.
Yeah they do. Seems too preliminary at the moment to get excited about it being on a par with the other vaccines efficacy.Surely Oxford are going to need more data from test cases of people receiving the dose levels that led to 90% efficacy? Perhaps they've messed up a bit by not doing more of that..
I don't think they messed up. I think it's one of the reasons why you have to trial things on thousands of people in real world situations.Surely Oxford are going to need more data from test cases of people receiving the dose levels that led to 90% efficacy? Perhaps they've messed up a bit by not doing more of that..
Someone needs to start sneakily putting up Planet of The Apes posters in GP waiting rooms.Oh jeez, once the loons find out it's a chimp virus there's going to be more of them than ever. It's going to turn us all into chimpanzees I tell you, and you can't prove otherwise.
The UK won't get the Moderna vaccine until April at the earliest. They hadn't actually ordered it until the results came out last week, then rushed through a small 5m order and are right at the back of the queue. It's Pfizer or bust for that particular cohort.Give very vulnerable or elderly people the Moderna one and give main population or those under 50, the 90% version of Oxford one?
There's lots of problems with this framing though.Maybe all eggs in one basket is a bit strong, but in terms of order size and when the respective vaccines should be available to the UK:
Oxford - 100m - December/January
Pfizer - 40m - small number in December, then into 2021
Moderna - 5m - Spring 2021
Valneva - 60m - H2 2021
Novovax - 60m - mid 2021
Janssen - 60m - mid 2021
Sanofi - 60m - spring 2021
If for any reason the Oxford vaccine falls short you can see the UK might have a problem.
From what I've read , that certainly seems to be the case, though I don't believe those companies have released their data yet so will wait to see what it says.Is it true that Moderna/Pfizer trials didn’t screen and test participants weekly like the Oxford trials meaning their data didn’t pick up asymptomatic cases? Suppose that works both ways though as the placebo group wouldn’t have been screened either.
So one Neymar, or 74m does of vaccine.So if 20% of the UK population will have caught Covid by the end of the second wave, that would mean only another 50% would have to become immune for herd immunity to be reached.
If the AZ vaccine is 90% effective, around 56% of the never infected population would need to take the vaccine to take us up to 70% of the 'herd' being immune.
That's 37m people, or 74m doses. At £3 per pop, that's roughly what it'd cost to buy two Jadon Sanchos.
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