The vaccines | vaxxed boosted unvaxxed? New poll

[11101]

There's lots of problems with this framing though.

I believe that moderna have announced all of their 2020 doses will be given to the USA only. The cold chain required for a vaccine needing storage at - 80 Celsius is immense and I doubt easily scalable on a national level immediately, even for countries like the USA, Germany, UK etc.

I doubt most countries will be vaccinating more than their very high risk cohorts and health care workers in the next couple of months, especially with vaccines like the Pfizer one, which will need huge infrastructure.

You also say that the UK hadn't ordered the moderna until a few days ago... Which is exactly what the EU had done too. There's nothing particularly unique about that..

When exactly are novovax and the others releasing their vaccines, especially considering they haven't even released their phase 3 data yet? (I mean technically no company has properly yet I believe)?

That's why i say maybe i was wrong to say it was totally down to putting all eggs in one basket, and some is down to bad luck. It so happened that two of the three leading the vaccine race are the ones the UK has ordered the least of.

The EU's has used that approach all along. They have concluded negotiations but then waited until the last minute to confirm orders, and used their buying power to push up the list. The UK by contrast has been quick to sign deals early but all reports suggest they had decided to opt out of the Moderna vaccine.


Those other vaccine dates are estimates. Some of them are still in phase 1 or 2 and i believe Valneva is still pre-trial.

 

[zing]

So one Neymar, or 74m does of vaccine.

Either way, it's a lot of money to pay for a little prick.

 

[jojojo]

Oxford/Boris have obviously chased the biggest profit opportunity rather than producing the best vaccine

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That's a bizarre way to view it. No one knew what would happen at Phase 3 until we got Phase 3 results. We still don't know anything about longevity of protection, protection/tolerance results for people with comorbidities or the real life manufacturing and distribution constraints. We always needed and continue to need multiple options. As the virus mutates we may need even more.

Beyond that, whatever can be done in small, densely populated, wealthy countries like the UK will not be applicable to big chunks of the world where even vaccine projects distributing fridge stable vaccines struggle with logistics.

 

[Revan]

Worth mentioning that the Oxford vaccine uses a viral vector, so pre-existing immunity to the vector would reduce efficacy. Which might cause different efficacy in different regions.

Isn't it a weakened common cold virus of chimpanzees? So, humans should not have pre-existing immunity to it, right?

 

[Revan]

That's why i say maybe i was wrong to say it was totally down to putting all eggs in one basket, and some is down to bad luck. It so happened that two of the three leading the vaccine race are the ones the UK has ordered the least of.

The EU's has used that approach all along. They have concluded negotiations but then waited until the last minute to confirm orders, and used their buying power to push up the list. The UK by contrast has been quick to sign deals early but all reports suggest they had decided to opt out of the Moderna vaccine.


Those other vaccine dates are estimates. Some of them are still in phase 1 or 2 and i believe Valneva is still pre-trial.

UK's strategy with regard to the vaccine has been spot on, but I do not understand why the hesitation for the Moderna vaccine. They have been leading the race from the beginning (first to develop the vaccine, first to start trials), so it is. a bit surprising that the UK ordered only 5m vaccines from them.

Maybe they were worried that Moderna has never developed a vaccine that had been used before.

 

[Wolverine]

We were having meetings as a practice with NHS england regarding pfizer and moderna once the comms went out that GPs would be assisting in mass vaccine programme. Became obvious that no solution was forthcoming regarding storage problem with regards to freezers in surgeries, mobile units for homebound patients etc etc. Logistically very very difficult. Ideally you want something quick and easier to roll out en masse, scalability a bit issue. If its the army or specialist vaccination centres doing them then fine but questions regarding homebound patients remain in that scenario, access with travel etc.

We know from phase II data regarding Oxford vaccine, it is well tolerated especially among older adults.

I was watching a zoom session with a clinical virologist who is quite prominent and he reported mainly two issues with the Oxford vaccine
- limited data looking specifically at BAME population
- relatively more side effect burden compared to pfizer and moderna, apparently you get up to 5 days of mild-to-moderate aches and pains type symptoms in Oxford vaccine (which is why for the Oxford vaccine their placebo had to be the MenACWY vaccine compared to saline for the mRNA vaccines) - it will be crucial to highlight issues of mild aches/pains but stress importance of second jab, although there are some who think nocebo effect is there as well and question whether honesty is the best policy. Will be tricky.

I think the efficacy data will change once we vaccinate more people, and more data will emerge, I think if it works well enough to get life back to normal and we can role out quickly (now with potentially help from primary care too) its worth doing.

I don't know what will be decided to be honest but getting the ball rolling with mass vaccination programmes with any of the three candidates is of massive benefit in the aggregate to society.

Would prefer though for clinical papers and data to be made available to all physicians and health policy makers though. Transparency is paramount. I wouldn't inject anybody without having those things to hand first personally.

 

[zing]

We were having meetings as a practice with NHS england regarding pfizer and moderna once the comms went out that GPs would be assisting in mass vaccine programme. Became obvious that no solution was forthcoming regarding storage problem with regards to freezers in surgeries, mobile units for homebound patients etc etc. Logistically very very difficult. Ideally you want something quick and easier to roll out en masse, scalability a bit issue. If its the army or specialist vaccination centres doing them then fine but questions regarding homebound patients remain in that scenario, access with travel etc.

We know from phase II data regarding Oxford vaccine, it is well tolerated especially among older adults.

I was watching a zoom session with a clinical virologist who is quite prominent and he reported mainly two issues with the Oxford vaccine
- limited data looking specifically at BAME population
- relatively more side effect burden compared to pfizer and moderna, apparently you get up to 5 days of mild-to-moderate aches and pains type symptoms in Oxford vaccine (which is why for the Oxford vaccine their placebo had to be the MenACWY vaccine compared to saline for the mRNA vaccines) - it will be crucial to highlight issues of mild aches/pains but stress importance of second jab, although there are some who think nocebo effect is there as well and question whether honesty is the best policy. Will be tricky.

I think the efficacy data will change once we vaccinate more people, and more data will emerge, I think if it works well enough to get life back to normal and we can role out quickly (now with potentially help from primary care too) its worth doing.

I don't know what will be decided to be honest but getting the ball rolling with mass vaccination programmes with any of the three candidates is of massive benefit in the aggregate to society.

Would prefer though for clinical papers and data to be made available to all physicians and health policy makers though. Transparency is paramount. I wouldn't inject anybody without having those things to hand first personally.

Saw that the control got a saline jab for the 2nd dose. Assuming that means the side effects are limited only to the first dose?

 

[Pogue Mahone]

We were having meetings as a practice with NHS england regarding pfizer and moderna once the comms went out that GPs would be assisting in mass vaccine programme. Became obvious that no solution was forthcoming regarding storage problem with regards to freezers in surgeries, mobile units for homebound patients etc etc. Logistically very very difficult. Ideally you want something quick and easier to roll out en masse, scalability a bit issue. If its the army or specialist vaccination centres doing them then fine but questions regarding homebound patients remain in that scenario, access with travel etc.

We know from phase II data regarding Oxford vaccine, it is well tolerated especially among older adults.

I was watching a zoom session with a clinical virologist who is quite prominent and he reported mainly two issues with the Oxford vaccine
- limited data looking specifically at BAME population
- relatively more side effect burden compared to pfizer and moderna, apparently you get up to 5 days of mild-to-moderate aches and pains type symptoms in Oxford vaccine (which is why for the Oxford vaccine their placebo had to be the MenACWY vaccine compared to saline for the mRNA vaccines) - it will be crucial to highlight issues of mild aches/pains but stress importance of second jab, although there are some who think nocebo effect is there as well and question whether honesty is the best policy. Will be tricky.

I think the efficacy data will change once we vaccinate more people, and more data will emerge, I think if it works well enough to get life back to normal and we can role out quickly (now with potentially help from primary care too) its worth doing.

I don't know what will be decided to be honest but getting the ball rolling with mass vaccination programmes with any of the three candidates is of massive benefit in the aggregate to society.

Would prefer though for clinical papers and data to be made available to all physicians and health policy makers though. Transparency is paramount. I wouldn't inject anybody without having those things to hand first personally.

Even if they get an emergency license there will have to be some sort of approved product label which will have all the key data incorporated. Whether or not a peer reviewed journal article is available. You won’t have to inject anyone based on the scanty info we’re working off right now.

 

[Wolverine]

Saw that the control got a saline jab for the 2nd dose. Assuming that means the side effects are limited only to the first dose?

yeah its possible, a big rate limiting step though will be if a significant amount of patients buy into this vaccine being "inferior" or only getting the first jab due to hyperfocus around this thing from media outlets and social media once we start vaccinating (+/- side effects).

 

[horsechoker]

So one Neymar, or 74m does of vaccine.

Either way, it's a lot of money to pay for a little prick.

Hehe good one

 

[sammsky1]

We know from phase II data regarding Oxford vaccine, it is well tolerated especially among older adults.

I was watching a zoom session with a clinical virologist who is quite prominent and he reported mainly two issues with the Oxford vaccine
- limited data looking specifically at BAME population
- relatively more side effect burden compared to pfizer and moderna, apparently you get up to 5 days of mild-to-moderate aches and pains type symptoms in Oxford vaccine (which is why for the Oxford vaccine their placebo had to be the MenACWY vaccine compared to saline for the mRNA vaccines) - it will be crucial to highlight issues of mild aches/pains but stress importance of second jab, although there are some who think nocebo effect is there as well and question whether honesty is the best policy. Will be tricky.

BAME covid19 issues in UK are sociological and not biological or genetic? So surely this isn't really an issue?

 

[Wolverine]

Even if they get an emergency license there will have to be some sort of approved product label which will have all the key data incorporated. Whether or not a peer reviewed journal article is available. You won’t have to inject anyone based on the scanty info we’re working off right now.

Yeah you are right, I mean yes a journal article would be nice, but if there are regulators making that licensing decision based off data then I'm happy with that.

I think there's just a bit of anxiety in primary care based on the fact that we're seeing significant increase in complaints and worried if our defense unions will cover us legally for any potential significant clinical adverse events (even if objectively mild or non-proven) that might result from this. Which I think is over the top to be fair.

I do keep thinking also that will be injecting I think some who have dabbled in the bill gates, microchip stuff who will take it, get an unrelated or mild thing and look to sue.

 

[sammsky1]

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[sammsky1]

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[Wolverine]

BAME covid19 issues in UK are sociological and not biological or genetic? So surely this isn't really an issue?

Not an issue for me, agreed.
Just regurgitating thoughts of Dr Julian Tang (Consultant Virologist at Leicester Royal Infirmary and Associate Prof in the department of Respiratory Sciences). I think though that BAME population make a significant make up of those affected including healthcare workers who passed away (for a variety of reasons) and having that group represented in the Oxford in bigger numbers would have been interesting/clinically relevant.

Particularly if you want to maybe look to make extrapolations in the data set of those who weren't immune despite the two full doses etc.

 

[stepic]

oxford one looks the best of the lot. cheaper, logistically better, and 90% efficacy. what's not to like.

 

[sammsky1]

 

[Ekkie Thump]

Too early to come to that conclusion. We don’t yet know which regime will be approved. It looks as though the 90% efficacy cohort has much lower patient numbers, which could be a problem when it comes to getting a license. They’ll be kicking themselves they didn’t go with that dose in the Phase III trial, that’s for sure.

Yeah, the AstraZeneca press release makes that quite clear. Only given to a subsection of the British portion of the study:

One dosing regimen (n=2,741) showed vaccine efficacy of 90% when AZD1222 was given as a half dose, followed by a full dose at least one month apart, and another dosing regimen (n=8,895) showed 62% efficacy when given as two full doses at least one month apart. The combined analysis from both dosing regimens (n=11,636) resulted in an average efficacy of 70%. All results were statistically significant (p<=0.0001). More data will continue to accumulate and additional analysis will be conducted, refining the efficacy reading and establishing the duration of protection.

 

[Dante]

BAME covid19 issues in UK are sociological and not biological or genetic? So surely this isn't really an issue?

Not really. It's just one of those acronyms that people like to say because they can get away with it. Doctors use BAME the same way that rappers use the N-word.

 

[Maluco]

This is potentially, the biggest news so far in the fight against this virus. Really fantastic to hear and so encouraging after so many months of uncertainty.

There are caveats and a few reasons to hold back and wait for broader results, but this could very well be the vaccine that will save so many lives worldwide

 

[Ayush_reddevil]

Oxford/Boris have obviously chased the biggest profit opportunity rather than producing the very best vaccine.

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The clinical trials, enrolling over 24,000 participants from diverse racial and geographical groups in the UK, Brazil and South Africa, will now continue to final analysis. Further trials are being conducted in the United States, Kenya, Japan and India and the trial team expect to have under 60,000 participants by the end of the year. These trials will provide regulators with further information about the efficacy and safety of the Oxford candidate vaccine, including its ability to both protect against and stop the transmission of COVID-19.

What a silly way to look at it

 

[Wibble]

Too early to come to that conclusion. We don’t yet know which regime will be approved. It looks as though the 90% efficacy cohort has much lower patient numbers, which could be a problem when it comes to getting a license. They’ll be kicking themselves they didn’t go with that dose in the Phase III trial, that’s for sure.

Don't we? Announced it will be the 2 shot version here? Of course that could just be an assumption.

 

[2cents]

Do we know anything for certain about the vaccines being developed in China, Russia, and India?

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Don't we? Announced it will be the 2 shot version here? Of course that could just be an assumption.

Every arm in the study involved 2 shots. Just varying doses.

 

[Wibble]

Every arm in the study involved 2 shots. Just varying doses.

I missed that. Watch this space then I guess.

I wonder if the approval process specifies dosage specifically or as a maximum?

 

[sammsky1]

Airline to demand proof of vaccination from passengers

Australian airline Qantas has suspended almost all overseas flights until mid-2021
Passengers will have to prove they have been vaccinated against Covid-19 before boarding an international flight with Qantas, the Australian airline’s chief executive has said.
Alan Joyce told Australia's Channel 9 that the airline was “looking at changing our terms and conditions” as several vaccines await final approval.
“We will ask people to have a vaccination before they get on the aircraft. Certainly, for international visitors coming out and people leaving the country we think that's a necessity," Joyce said.
He said proof of Covid-19 vaccinations may become a “common theme” across the industry.
“What we’re looking at is how you can have a vaccination passport, an electronic version of it that certifies what the vaccine is and whether it’s acceptable to the country you’re traveling to,” he said.
Qantas has suspended almost all overseas flights until the middle of 2021, and does not expect to resume full service until a Covid vaccine becomes available.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

I missed that. Watch this space then I guess.

I wonder if the approval process specifies dosage specifically or as a maximum?

It will definitely specify a dose. Or a range of doses. Although there needs to be enough data to justify the range. Usually the dosing is finalised after the Phase II studies before going into Phase III. The Oxford data comes from combining a Phase II/III trial (which is where the lower dose, 90% efficacy comes from) with a Phase III trial (62% efficacy) to give the 70% overall. So it’s hard to work out what sort of license they will go for/get. The number of subjects on the highest efficacy dose are a hell of a lot lower than those on the lower efficacy dose and patient numbers matter.

 

[Sarni]

I am shocked to see how many people have actually sub-consciously bought into anti-vaxx movement without realizing that. I have asked many of my friends whether they will get vaccinated, they aren’t really covid denialists per their admittance, and I am yet to find a person who would say ‘yeah I will get it’. It’s either ‘never in a million years, it’s not dangerous to me’ or ‘will definitely not get any of the first doses as they won’t be tested sufficiently’. So basically I am antivaxx but won’t admit it.

 

[Wolverine]

https://www.vox.com/21590994/oxford-vaccine-results-covid-19-astrazeneca-trial-pfizer-moderna

this is a decent comparison article, mostly accurate i think and with the regards to efficacy this bit is pretty relevant

AstraZeneca-Oxford measured their results in a different way from their two major competitors. The Moderna and Pfizer/BioNTech trials only captured Covid-19 infections in their trial pool that advanced far enough to produce symptoms, while the AstraZeneca trials conducted weekly swab tests among their participants, allowing them to detect much less severe cases — including potential asymptomatic infections — among their volunteers. These differences make it trickier to draw apples-to-apples comparisons of the efficacy of the different vaccines.

 

[jojojo]

https://www.vox.com/21590994/oxford-vaccine-results-covid-19-astrazeneca-trial-pfizer-moderna
AstraZeneca-Oxford measured their results in a different way from their two major competitors. The Moderna and Pfizer/BioNTech trials only captured Covid-19 infections in their trial pool that advanced far enough to produce symptoms, while the AstraZeneca trials conducted weekly swab tests among their participants, allowing them to detect much less severe cases — including potential asymptomatic infections — among their volunteers. These differences make it trickier to draw apples-to-apples comparisons of the efficacy of the different vaccines.
this is a decent comparison article, mostly accurate i think and with the regards to efficacy this bit is pretty relevant I think

That would be huge really. I don't think the Astra press release is very clear on who exactly they were testing (or how, because the press release talks about PCR for symptomatic cases separately) or what the symptomatic/asymptomatic split was. The Astra guy described it tonight as "a hint" from one of the UK trial sets. To be continued I guess...

 

[Wibble]

I am shocked to see how many people have actually sub-consciously bought into anti-vaxx movement without realizing that. I have asked many of my friends whether they will get vaccinated, they aren’t really covid denialists per their admittance, and I am yet to find a person who would say ‘yeah I will get it’. It’s either ‘never in a million years, it’s not dangerous to me’ or ‘will definitely not get any of the first doses as they won’t be tested sufficiently’. So basically I am antivaxx but won’t admit it.

I don't know anyone who wouldn't take it. And that includes my son and his mates in their early 20's in the US and Australia. The anti-vaxers I do encounter are online and a scary number are from the UK. I kind of expect that sort of lunacy from the US as the far-right Trump Qanon silliness seems to have become involved but the UK used to be more rational.

We do have our vaccine nutters here but most see a vaccine as a way back to normal and the sacrifices of lockdown and closed borders were to get us to a vaccine with minimal deaths.

 

[Buster15]

That would be huge really. I don't think the Astra press release is very clear on who exactly they were testing (or how, because the press release talks about PCR for symptomatic cases separately) or what the symptomatic/asymptomatic split was. The Astra guy described it tonight as "a hint" from one of the UK trial sets. To be continued I guess...

From the data so far, there is much to be encouraged from the Oxford AZ developed vaccine.
Assuming it becomes certified, it is going to be interesting as to whether you will be able to choose which vaccine you will be given.

 

[Sarni]

I don't know anyone who wouldn't take it. And that includes my son and his mates in their early 20's in the US and Australia. The anti-vaxers I do encounter are online and a scary number are from the UK. I kind of expect that sort of lunacy from the US as the far-right Trump Qanon silliness seems to have become involved but the UK used to be more rational.

We do have our vaccine nutters here but most see a vaccine as a way back to normal and the sacrifices of lockdown and closed borders were to get us to a vaccine with minimal deaths.

Yeah you are talking from a perspective of a normal country. I don’t really consider most of my friends far right conspiracy mongers, they are all laughing at covid denialist and conspiracy nuts yet all of them are saying they won’t take vaccine. My wife says the same and says she won’t allow me to take one so I will probably do this in secret. I don’t know ONE person here who admits they will get vaccine. Not even a single person!

 

[Ayush_reddevil]

From the data so far, there is much to be encouraged from the Oxford AZ developed vaccine.
Assuming it becomes certified, it is going to be interesting as to whether you will be able to choose which vaccine you will be given.

That would be disastrous imo, I think as long as the regulatory authorities can certify all of them it should really be a government decision. The logistics are hard enough already but this percentage war can cause a lot of problems

 

[Brophs]

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[horsechoker]

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This took me way too long and a Google of the Oxford comma to figure out.

 

[711]

This took me way too long and a Google of the Oxford comma to figure out.

hah, I didn't get it. thank you.

 

[GloryHunter07]

Oxford/Boris have obviously chased the biggest profit opportunity rather than producing the very best vaccine.

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The clinical trials, enrolling over 24,000 participants from diverse racial and geographical groups in the UK, Brazil and South Africa, will now continue to final analysis. Further trials are being conducted in the United States, Kenya, Japan and India and the trial team expect to have under 60,000 participants by the end of the year. These trials will provide regulators with further information about the efficacy and safety of the Oxford candidate vaccine, including its ability to both protect against and stop the transmission of COVID-19.

What an absolutely horrendous hot take.

 

[11101]

https://www.vox.com/21590994/oxford-vaccine-results-covid-19-astrazeneca-trial-pfizer-moderna

this is a decent comparison article, mostly accurate i think and with the regards to efficacy this bit is pretty relevant

Definitely get the feeling Oxford/AstraZeneca have been disappointed with the lukewarm response and are scrambling to make themselves look better.

 

[RK]

https://www.vox.com/21590994/oxford-vaccine-results-covid-19-astrazeneca-trial-pfizer-moderna

this is a decent comparison article, mostly accurate i think and with the regards to efficacy this bit is pretty relevant

Yeah it absolutely is. I noted the following last week and was keen to see how AZ recorded infections. It makes direct comparisons difficult to make.

Is it worth bearing in mind that the Moderna trial protocol only tests for obviously symptomatic COVID-19? To be considered a positive case, the participants must test positive AND have at least two symptoms, at least one of which being a specific type.

Still promising news but seems like this could skew the numbers a bit by veiling potential asymptomatic cases/transmission. Would expect the true effectiveness (disease prevention) to be lower than 94.5%, but I say that based on statistical effects rather than any medical knowledge.

For what it's worth I'm not a fan of AZ being reported as "up to 90%". I don't think it's correct to look at the results and think that 90% is the midpoint expectancy for the half-dose/full-dose group. It's still possible, or could be higher, but it is more likely to be lower. This is because of the small sample sizes and the fact that you would "borrow" information from the other regimen, given that it's more likely that the cross-regimen results would be positively correlated (than independent or negatively correlated). With more data I'd expect that 90% to regress in the direction of the overall mean. The best estimate should be reported unless explicitly stated.

I've calculated the basic statistical confidence intervals for the half/full group and they're pretty huge. That 90% efficacy is mid-70s to high-90s for a 95% CI ballpark.