7.7% chance conversion rate

Lash

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Rashford has always been hot & cold. He’ll look unstoppable for a game then do nothing for 5. I got slated for saying “prepare for the drop off” after the Leipzig game. He’ll look like Neymar for a game soon & then drop off again. It’s the way he’s always been. The only real consistent periods he’s ever had were his first season under LVG & a spell at the beginning of last season, which even then some awful performances would be masked by a pen or a tap in.
I think we tend to forget he's still only 23, but he's particularly infuriating at the moment. That being said, he's just one of those players though that can pull it out the bag whilst playing trash, so I get the persistence with him.
 

Idxomer

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Getting embarrassing now with one of our best finishers as the manager.
 

#07

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Poor conversion rate costing us tonight against PSG. So many chances, all fluffed then PSG score and now we're down to 10. Pathetic.
 

BluesJr

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I’ve felt this for a long time. Our players simply don’t understand the importance of putting chances away. Way too casual and it costs us time and time again. SCORE YOUR CHANCES YOU PRICKS. That will be all.
 

NinjaZombie

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We've been a fecking joke in that regard today
The frustrating thing is, it looked like Martial had gotten it in his head that he needs to be more clinical last season. His finishing is one of the reasons why we've lost this game.
 

OleBoiii

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It's been obvious since Mourinho got sacked almost 2 years ago. Which attackers have we signed since then? A kid from the Championship and Cavani on a free transfer(very recently).

I refuse to believe that Ole, who's famous for his clinical finishing and only ever shows frustration when our strikers are wasteful, would be OK with this. 100% down to the owners/Woodward/whoever is in charge of negotiations.
 

Nickosaur

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So bizarre to see Martial struggle this season after such a clinical campaign last season. Seems to have completely regressed.
 

Borys

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Huh. This one I don't understand. I watched Martial wasting chance after chance after chance for France, I thought "no chance this is happening again this season". And yet here we are. Last game Bruno and Greenwood, this time Martial. Unbelievable.
 

Pennywise

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Hopefully we can punt martial in the summer and bring in something resembling a striker in his place
 

DWelbz19

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What’s the xG saying for our season generally, @StatNerds? Our conversion rate is dreadful, but are we creating consistent goalscoring chances? Should we have a lot more goals? Anyone?
 

UNITED ACADEMY

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There is no way anyone can say those chances are low quality chances. Those are high quality chances and one of them was 200% should have been a goal.
 

TMDaines

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What’s the xG saying for our season generally, @StatNerds? Our conversion rate is dreadful, but are we creating consistent goalscoring chances? Should we have a lot more goals? Anyone?
13.31 xG vs 16 scored in the league so far.

We have improved a lot in recent weeks though after a very sluggish start.
 

DWelbz19

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13.31 xG vs 16 scored in the league so far.

We have improved a lot in recent weeks though after a very sluggish start.
Hmm, fair enough. Guess it’s more of an eye seeing what the eye wants after the poor start then.
 

Chipper

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Two ways of looking at that:

We scored exactly how many we should have based off the chances we had.

We should have got 2 as the goal we did score was fortunate and from a small chance. The other chances we created outside of that would have been close to adding up to 1 anyway.
 

Dominos

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Two ways of looking at that:

We scored exactly how many we should have based off the chances we had.

We should have got 2 as the goal we did score was fortunate and from a small chance. The other chances we created outside of that would have been close to adding up to 1 anyway.
Things like this don't take into account the situations we get ourselves into whereby any decent team would score, but we mess it up so badly that it doesn't even register as a chance. Fernandes being through on goal at the end of the first half and passing it to no one being a great example.

There's so many times a game where you wonder how we can call ourselves a counter attacking team and mess up the most basic of counters that amount to nothing in the end. The same situations the likes of City and Liverpool would punish teams.
 

Chipper

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Things like this don't take into account the situations we get ourselves into whereby any decent team would score, but we mess it up so badly that it doesn't even register as a chance. Fernandes being through on goal at the end of the first half and passing it to no one being a great example.

There's so many times a game where you wonder how we can call ourselves a counter attacking team and mess up the most basic of counters that amount to nothing in the end. The same situations the likes of City and Liverpool would punish teams.
Yeah, that is a limitation of xG although some models do try I think. fivethirtyeight.com have something called non-shot xG or similar in their datasets that you can download. Can't remember exactly what they call it. I'd imagine others do too.

Mind you the topic of this thread is all about the shots as that's what the 7.7% stat relates to. 12 shots tonight, 8.33% conversion rate, fairly typical of the season so far on that front.
 

croadyman

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I’ve felt this for a long time. Our players simply don’t understand the importance of putting chances away. Way too casual and it costs us time and time again. SCORE YOUR CHANCES YOU PRICKS. That will be all.
Yeah this needs to be drilled into them and doesn't feel like Ole is doing that
 

charlenefan

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Martial is normally clinical but he just can't find the goal this season.
Is he normally clinical? Seems to me this narrative (not from you) that he's ice cold in front of goal stems from his first season at the club. That was what 5 years ago now?

I remember him going clean through away to Newcastle in Jose's second season and hit it straight at the keeper. I remember having only Alison to bear at Anfield last season and he skied it

I don't think he's clinical at all
 

bsCallout

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Something needs to be done. Our players arent aggressive enough if that makes sense.

VDB failing to shoot on Sunday.
Martial trying to side foot everything. Bruno failing to volley yesterday. Rashford trying to walk through a defence before getting a shot off.

Cavani and Greenwood are the two 'aggressive' strikers who will do anything to test the GK but our fans jumped on Greenwood for it a couple of games ago.

I'd like to see Greenwood play with Cavani up top, Martial deserves to be dropped and Rashford 'needs a rest'.
 

Borys

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We are not inconsistent at creating chances (game to game), we are inconsistent at converting them to goals (game to game variation). So for example we can score 5 goals from total of 13 shots one game (total of 13 shots vs RB), only to miss all chances from 14 shots next game (vs Chelsea).

Analyzing total xG is pointless for a game like yesterday. I'm pretty sure we were on top until their goal (we had some really good chances and kept them rather quiet in first 20mins of second half), and it all went south from there after Fred the Red. We had to attack and we were in 10 men. Should Martial have scored at least one of his big chances, it's PSG who would be chasing game and we would be counter-attacking them.
Understat provided xG in time-series chart, what is more interesting to analyse, but does that only for EPL. Does anybody know if there's some other place I can see it for Champions League games?
Makes you wonder just what are we doing in trainings?
It seems to be a mental issue. You don't become shit at converting chances into goals overnight - Martial had a very good record last season.
 

El Zoido

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Goals change games. It’s incredibly frustrating, we miss sitters at 0-0 then concede. If Martial had scored that chance last night we’d probably have won the game, then all this negativity is gone. We’d be through to KO stages and looking forward to the weekend. Instead the Ole out thread explodes once again just because Martial thinks he’s playing rugby. We’d be competing for the league title if we had Haaland instead of Martial.
 

bsCallout

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10 games. Between the soft red card and then the illness he's been in and out of the team this season and missed quite a few games. Obviously it's not good enough but we shouldn't talk as if this is normal for him.
I agree. He needs to pick up form but the form he shown last season should give us reason to think he'll hit a good moment.

Ole needs to be able to drop players that have been underperforming though.