The vaccines | vaxxed boosted unvaxxed? New poll

[Pogue Mahone]

I saw a couple of articles about people getting reinfected with the SA variant.. and that the vaccines might be less effective against it..
And other articles saying they dont expect the virus to go away, ie, cases go down to 0.. most people will have some level of immunity to it and we'll have to live with it.

A couple of questions..
1) how much of a concern is it in the short term? and
2)What is the likelihood of something like this (a worse version of the SA variant) starting the whole thing all over again in the future.. 2-3 years from now..

Short answer to 1) and 2) is nobody knows.

It’s not unexpected for mutations to cause the virus to become resistant to neutralising antibodies. And we’re seeing this with the SA variant. That involves tests in the lab against a predefined sample of antibodies targetting a specific part of the virus (monoclonal).

When you become immune you actually generate a whole host of antibodies targeting loads of different parts of the virus (polyclonal). A much wider range than has been identified and tested in the lab. Plus you use other elements of the immune system, such as T cells. So there’s always been a hope that even if you see resistance using in vitro tests the immunity you get in practice might be a bit more persistent.

Hence, it was slightly surprising (and more than slightly depressing) to read about South African patients catching this new variant despite prior infection and vaccines not working as well on them. It shows that this new strain is better at evading an in vivo immune response than we’d hoped. It’s still possible that this limited immune response won’t stop you getting sick but might stop you getting very sick. Which would be great. But we don’t have enough data to know if this is the case.

So it’s definitely possible you could get new variants that are even better at evading vaccination and make people just as sick as though they were never vaccinated. From listening to a bunch of experts the consensus seems to be that this is unlikely. Because the virus mutates relatively slowly and it takes a lot of bad luck to get a mutation as significant as this SA variant, so hopefully lightning won’t strike twice. But nobody knows for certain. Which sucks but there you go.

 

[Green_Red]

its ridiculous - you will now find Vaccines being thrown away, or perhaps worse people being turned down, because it involves opening a new vial, with no prospect of being able to administer the remaining vaccines.

The people that run the covid centres work a standby list and do pretty well at making sure that all opened vials get used.

 

[Green_Red]

15 million+ vaccinated (first dose)in the UK. Say what you want about the governments response to covid but that is excellent work on the vaccine front. Making the Irish government look like absolute clowns.

I watched some BBC thing on YouTube about how the UK government invested in vaccine developers very early on, before any trials were conducted in most cases. Someone involved with the investment program said that they could easily have been in a position now where none of the vaccines they invested in where of any use, and half expected to be seeing some newspaper story about the waste of government money in failed vaccines around now. So they get incredibly lucky that 2 of 8 they invested in are approved and 4 of the others have had good trials and are on an approval path. It could have been different, so I don't think they're making anyone luck foolish.

But the numbers vaccinated are definitely impressive. Looking forward to eventually getting one and try and get back to normality.

 

[Suv666]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

UK's vaccine campaign has been nothing short of spectacular. Credit where credit is due, good job Boris.

 

[Suv666]

Short answer to 1) and 2) is nobody knows.

It’s not unexpected for mutations to cause the virus to become resistant to neutralising antibodies. And we’re seeing this with the SA variant. That involves tests in the lab against a predefined sample of antibodies targetting a specific part of the virus (monoclonal).

When you become immune you actually generate a whole host of antibodies targeting loads of different parts of the virus (polyclonal). A much wider range than has been identified and tested in the lab. Plus you use other elements of the immune system, such as T cells. So there’s always been a hope that even if you see resistance using in vitro tests the immunity you get in practice might be a bit more persistent.

Hence, it was slightly surprising (and more than slightly depressing) to read about South African patients catching this new variant despite prior infection and vaccines not working as well on them. It shows that this new strain is better at evading an in vivo immune response than we’d hoped. It’s still possible that this limited immune response won’t stop you getting sick but might stop you getting very sick. Which would be great. But we don’t have enough data to know if this is the case.

So it’s definitely possible you could get new variants that are even better at evading vaccination and make people just as sick as though they were never vaccinated. From listening to a bunch of experts the consensus seems to be that this is unlikely. Because the virus mutates relatively slowly and it takes a lot of bad luck to get a mutation as significant as this SA variant, so hopefully lightning won’t strike twice. But nobody knows for certain. Which sucks but there you go.

Its just the AZ vaccine which doesnt work on the SA variant right?

 

[Himannv]

Anyone heard of a vaccine called COVID Shield or something? What's that one about?

 

[Wibble]

Epidemiologist: The best vaccine is the one in your arm

https://www.theguardian.com/comment...ll-be-glad-to-get-whatever-vaccine-im-offered

 

[Oldyella]

Just been given confirmation I get my first dose on Thursday. At 44, I am assuming it's due to the upcoming change in shielding classifications(Stroke/Epilepsy due to brain tumour a couple of years back) so yay, good news on one hand, but also not sure how concerned I should be re the change in shielding, when I have not done so for the last year aside from the steps everyone else has taken.

 

[Classical Mechanic]

I watched some BBC thing on YouTube about how the UK government invested in vaccine developers very early on, before any trials were conducted in most cases. Someone involved with the investment program said that they could easily have been in a position now where none of the vaccines they invested in where of any use, and half expected to be seeing some newspaper story about the waste of government money in failed vaccines around now. So they get incredibly lucky that 2 of 8 they invested in are approved and 4 of the others have had good trials and are on an approval path. It could have been different, so I don't think they're making anyone luck foolish.

But the numbers vaccinated are definitely impressive. Looking forward to eventually getting one and try and get back to normality.

It seems most people want to view the UK vaccine success so far through the political lens that they favour. Lefties say it was nothing to do with the Tories and everything to do with the NHS whilst Tories claim it as a victory for their party. Remainers say it had nothing to do with Brexit whilst Leavers say it was all because of Brexit.

I think the truth is that they're all are right in part but wrong to claim any one narrative.

The government did get a lot right. Firstly they rejected pressure from remainer factions to join the EU procurement program as the EU demanded that the UK give up the contracts it was already negotiating in order to join. They also took the advice of Patrick Vallance to learn from previous failings in PPE procurement and have a small team led by a biochemist venture capitalist called Kate Bingham and a small group of experts and industry insiders. Bingham went to Oxford with Boris and had a direct line to him on decision making which cut out a lot of bureaucracy. There was an element of luck with which vaccine would actually work but the UK team invested in the vaccines that could be distributed quickly and at scale in the UK, so there was a calculated method to the process that paid off. Having one of the World's best universities developing a vaccine with an Anglo/Swiss company was also a natural advantage.

Of course the NHS deserves a lot of credit. Having a long established centralised national health service that is experienced in rolling out nationwide vaccine programs is a major advantage. You can see how the US has struggled in comparison to the UK with roll out despite making the early running with the UK when it came to procurement. It should be noted too the UK military have helped with the roll out in the largest peacetime resiliance operation. Army medics are helping on the front line and infrastructure is being built by troops. Private companies like pharmacies have also been incorporated into aiding the roll out.

Technically the UK could have done all this whilst being in the EU but it would have been under the significant diplomatic pressure to join the bloc procurement program as a member, which is what happened with some of the larger EU nations. Brexit also put natrual poilitical pressure on the government to not join the EU procurement program. The success isn't because of Brexit but Brexit is one of a number of factors in the success so far.

I don't know if the UK is making anyone look foolish but the process so far has shown up some of the inherent structural weaknesses of the EU when it comes to responding to a rapidly developing emergency like Covid.

 

[jojojo]

Anyone heard of a vaccine called COVID Shield or something? What's that one about?

Do you mean Covishield maybe? That's a renamed Oxford/Astra Zeneca being made in India by SI.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Its just the AZ vaccine which doesnt work on the SA variant right?

Every vaccine tested on it in clinical trials has showed reduced efficacy. Not all of them have been tested on it.

 

[Traub]

J&J vaccinations should be starting here today. Hopefully it works against this variant.

On a side note, they're estimating over 50% of South Africans have already had COVID. So we are definitely reaching herd immunity levels.

https://www.businessinsider.co.za/b...ca-infected-by-covd-says-discovery-ceo-2021-2

 

[Pogue Mahone]

J&J vaccinations should be starting here today. Hopefully it works against this variant.

On a side note, they're estimating over 50% of South Africans have already had COVID. So we are definitely reaching herd immunity levels.

https://www.businessinsider.co.za/b...ca-infected-by-covd-says-discovery-ceo-2021-2

That does seems to have happened in India. The worry here is that previous infection with “original” covid doesn’t seem to give much protection against your new variant. So a lot will depend on the proportions of the different variants in that 50%.

The J&J vaccine definitely works against the SA variant. It’s been successful in trials where the variant was dominant. Reduced efficacy but still effective. 57% protection against mod/severe disease. 85% against severe.

 

[Brophs]

My cousin’s father in law got the jab late last week. He rang his son, my cousin’s husband, that evening, to tell him he thought he was having side effects. Explosive diarrhoea to be exact. A bit of investigation with the hospital revealed that the cause was less likely to be the vaccine but rather the two portions of chicken balls and fried rice he’d allowed himself as a treat for being such a brave boy and getting the vaccine.

 

[Himannv]

Do you mean Covishield maybe? That's a renamed Oxford/Astra Zeneca being made in India by SI.

That's the one. Cheers. Is it actually the same as Astra Zeneca?

 

[Phil]

Right I need to pick up a prescription at a hospital that I know is Pfizer jabbing after work this evening.
I'm wondering if it's worth swinging by afterwards and trying my luck for any spares about 6:30-7pm. I imagine they have a backup list but it can't hurt.

 

[Dumbstar]

Right I need to pick up a prescription at a hospital that I know is Pfizer jabbing after work this evening.
I'm wondering if it's worth swinging by afterwards and trying my luck for any spares about 6:30-7pm. I imagine they have a backup list but it can't hurt.

Give it a go and let us know how it went. Cheers.

 

[Grinner]

Technical question - is the 2nd jab exactly the same as the first? Dosage?

 

[F-Red]

Right I need to pick up a prescription at a hospital that I know is Pfizer jabbing after work this evening.
I'm wondering if it's worth swinging by afterwards and trying my luck for any spares about 6:30-7pm. I imagine they have a backup list but it can't hurt.

Unless you've got a booking reference you won't get past the first gate, any spares they'll have a list they'll be contacting which goes down through the priority groups.

 

[F-Red]

Technical question - is the 2nd jab exactly the same as the first? Dosage?

For AZ, it's exactly the same on both jabs.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

For AZ, it's exactly the same on both jabs.

I should know this but does that mean they’ve given up on the idea that half dose/full dose gives best efficacy?

 

[jojojo]

I don't know if the UK is making anyone look foolish but the process so far has shown up some of the inherent structural weaknesses of the EU when it comes to responding to a rapidly developing emergency like Covid.

It's an understandable problem. Some countries saw lower death rates and less economic damage than others during the first wave. Risk factors like age profile and housing density vary. Throw in the relative lack of enthusiasm for the jab amongst the population in some countries a truly united approach was difficult.

They went for unity and consistency with established procedures, insisting on value for money, and respect for regional policy on investment or supply deals, and the right of all member states to review decisions, and propose amendments.

The downside was that they closed their eyes and ears to the difficulties inherent in the production ramp-up, and to the risk factors that could stop a product completely or delay availability. The upside should be that they didn't get into the same kind of internal conflict that happened with PPE etc, and that it respects the principle that individual countries aren't safe unless their neighbours are.

It's cost them maybe a month or two on the delivery schedule - a small delay in normal times, a painfully expensive delay in a pandemic. Particularly when the UK was racing along in comparison.

Incidentally, they still haven't formally agreed a contract with Novavax, who to all practical purposes have had to set up their own manufacturing structure across Europe - with production capacity in Sweden, Czech republic, Spain and Germany. No advance funding from the EU, but presumably with some inducements from national governments. However, their main funding sources during the move from lab scale to mass production have been the US and the UK (with the UK offering things like clinical trial facilities, pre-production funding and advanced order guarantees)

That's not necessarily something inherent in the structure of the EU, but it's a huge difference in institutional attitude. They treated it as if it was a procurement exercise - talking about buying power etc. The UK and the US treated it as what it was, a massive development gamble without guaranteed results.

 

[jojojo]

I should know this but does that mean they’ve given up on the idea that half dose/full dose gives best efficacy?

I think they decided that the delay between doses was more important. Which makes it a bit unfortunate that the current clinical trials are using the 4 week gap pattern. If there is an issue with the adenovirus response being enhanced by the second dose, rather than the spike response, then that might mean they end up reporting really disappointing results.

That said, by the time those come out we should know from the UK what really happens, and hopefully the MHRA will be proved right. Otherwise those booster jabs (of something) will be needed sooner rather than later.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

I think they decided that the delay between doses was more important. Which makes it a bit unfortunate that the current clinical trials are using the 4 week gap pattern. If there is an issue with the adenovirus response being enhanced by the second dose, rather than the spike response, then that might mean they end up reporting really disappointing results.

That said, by the time those come out we should know from the UK what really happens, and hopefully the MHRA will be proved right. Otherwise those booster jabs (of something) will be needed sooner rather than later.

Jaysus. They don’t help themselves, do they?

 

[F-Red]

I should know this but does that mean they’ve given up on the idea that half dose/full dose gives best efficacy?

Not sure where that's got to in terms of the trials, I looked up the document that they're giving the training on & it stated it there. I wouldn't be at all surprised if it changes once they get better data.

 

[Dumbstar]

Jaysus. They don’t help themselves, do they?

They took one partial educated/partial guesswork punt on production and got lucky. So they decided to take another, more guesswork only, punt with the dosage. Thing is, both their horses may still come in!

 

[lynchie]

Jaysus. They don’t help themselves, do they?

It's tough though - a 12 week gap in a trial would mean the trial takes a lot longer to generate results. I guess they hope the answers are good enough, and they'll be better with the 12 week gap in actual rollout. Doesn't make a for a nice neat comms piece though.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

It's tough though - a 12 week gap in a trial would mean the trial takes a lot longer to generate results. I guess they hope the answers are good enough, and they'll be better with the 12 week gap in actual rollout. Doesn't make a for a nice neat comms piece though.

I just think they should have the courage of their convictions.

If you’re going to go round telling everyone that leaving a 12 week gap likely gives the best efficacy then prove it in a clinical trial. It was the same when they started talking up the “serendipity” of getting best results with a half dose/full dose regime. If you honestly believe that’s the best regimen then test it. It just adds to the whole chaotic, throw shit at a wall and see what sticks, vibe you get from their primary publication.

At the end of the day the doctors prescribing these vaccines need to know that the way they are prescribed is as close as possible to the way they were tested. Without that there’s always going to be uncertainty.

For me, it keeps coming back to the same thing. They’ve probably designed a very good vaccine (I’d happily take it tomorrow, personally) but they’re doing a terrible job of demonstrating that it’s a very good vaccine.

 

[Carl]

1st jab done. Pfizer flavour.

No indication of flesh cravings as yet so early signs are promising.

 

[F-Red]

1st jab done. Pfizer flavour.

No indication of flesh cravings as yet so early signs are promising.

Have you been asked to update windows at all?

 

[Hal9000]

UK's vaccine campaign has been nothing short of spectacular. Credit where credit is due, good job Boris.

NHS*

Just thought I'd correct that. The Vaccine rollout is largely due to the NHS and experience of rolling out flu vaccines. I guess the praise I would give is that this time they didn't outsource the rollout to their friends and party donors.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Results from February update of React 1 are out.

Prevalence has dropped across the board and is highest in 5-12 and 18-24 year olds. No impact yet of vaccination program, with over 65 yo prevalence falling no faster than other age groups.

Not sure what to make of that. Would make you wonder if efficacy after single jab not as good as hoped? Also possible that vaccines good at preventing illness but bad at preventing transmission. I’m not fully sure about timings either. Could just be too early to see any positive effect.

 

[jojojo]

Results from February update of React 1 are out.

Prevalence has dropped across the board and is highest in 5-12 and 18-24 year olds. No impact yet of vaccination program, with over 65 yo prevalence falling no faster than other age groups.

Not sure what to make of that. Would make you wonder if efficacy after single jab not as good as hoped? Also possible that vaccines good at preventing illness but bad at preventing transmission. I’m not fully sure about timings either. Could just be too early to see any positive effect.

Over 65 is too broad a category for this. The sample time was 4-13th February. Vaccinations for the bulk of over 70s were happening in the second half of January and into first week in February, so only a minority of them would be in that 14+ days post jab category when tested, and even fewer in the 21+ days (14 + incubation) group. The 65-69 group are being vaccinated now.

With the other vaccinated/current vaccination groups (health & care workers, clinically vulnerable) outnumbering the over 65s - I don't think the age profiles will necessarily help much next time either. Hopefully they'll be able to add in a vaccinated/not category though.

 

[lynchie]

Results from February update of React 1 are out.

Prevalence has dropped across the board and is highest in 5-12 and 18-24 year olds. No impact yet of vaccination program, with over 65 yo prevalence falling no faster than other age groups.

Not sure what to make of that. Would make you wonder if efficacy after single jab not as good as hoped? Also possible that vaccines good at preventing illness but bad at preventing transmission. I’m not fully sure about timings either. Could just be too early to see any positive effect.

Probably won't see the vaccine effect yet - I think about half our vaccine doses have been given out in the last 3 weeks and surveillance pcr testing will be picking up older infections.

There's some weird results, that might be more down to the big confidence intervals - like why is the modelled fit for the NE seemingly increasing while swab positivity is coming down? And why is the odds ratio for BAME groups suddenly less than 1 compared to white subjects?

Good to see things going the right way generally though.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Over 65 is too broad a category for this. The sample time was 4-13th February. Vaccinations for the bulk of over 70s were happening in the second half of January and into first week in February, so only a minority of them would be in that 14+ days post jab category when tested, and even fewer in the 21+ days (14 + incubation) group. The 65-69 group are being vaccinated now.

With the other vaccinated/current vaccination groups (health & care workers, clinically vulnerable) outnumbering the over 65s - I don't think the age profiles will necessarily help much next time either. Hopefully they'll be able to add in a vaccinated/not category though.

Probably won't see the vaccine effect yet - I think about half our vaccine doses have been given out in the last 3 weeks and surveillance pcr testing will be picking up older infections.

There's some weird results, that might be more down to the big confidence intervals - like why is the modelled fit for the NE seemingly increasing while swab positivity is coming down? And why is the odds ratio for BAME groups suddenly less than 1 compared to white subjects?

Good to see things going the right way generally though.

Yeah, I figured it might be too early to see any benefit. Plus it’s an incredibly crude way to monitor vaccine efficacy.

 

[McGrathsipan]

My cousin’s father in law got the jab late last week. He rang his son, my cousin’s husband, that evening, to tell him he thought he was having side effects. Explosive diarrhoea to be exact. A bit of investigation with the hospital revealed that the cause was less likely to be the vaccine but rather the two portions of chicken balls and fried rice he’d allowed himself as a treat for being such a brave boy and getting the vaccine.

He should have stuck to a spice bag

 

[Gambit]

Sat in the car park at the local vaccine centre waiting to go in and get my jab

 

[Gambit]

Just got the Pfizer jab. Sat waiting for the allotted time. You get a card with the info on it if your jab and date. When you get the second the rest gets filled out and it becomes your vaccine passport.

 

[The Corinthian]

Yea, I had the AZ / Oxford one last Friday (32, not vulnerable, but I'm given a 'front line volunteer' status).

Some minor side effects - the only lasting one is the arm / area the vaccine is administered is sore and swollen for a few days after.

 

[Grinner]

From The Grauniad:


Police in Brazil are investigating allegations that healthcare workers are giving fake Covid inoculations, amid reports of nurses injecting people with empty syringes.

Cases of what local media are calling “wind vaccination” have been reported in four states, adding to the woes of the country’s halting and uncoordinated immunisation programme.

Police announced a criminal investigation on Wednesday, amid speculation that the nurses were either anti-vaxxer conspiracy theorists, or were pocketing vaccine shots to be sold on the black market.