Ukraine might have been easy to take in 2014, e.g. see Crimea and Donbas, but now it will be much tougher. Russia of course have the superior forces and equipment, but that’s not always enough.What's the point of publishing this kind of relatively sensitive information (militarily speaking) publicly? I've never seen a country publish its intelligence for the whole world (including the enemy) in the middle of a conflict. This tells me one thing, nobody in this camp seems to pin a lot of hope on the military resistance, their objective at the moment seems to be mainly setting the ground in the media for the upcoming sanctions.
Selling some real guns would have been better.Tweet
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Surprise them on the battlefield and use that intelligence to inflict heavy casualties by being (militarily) prepared for these advances?Presumably the point is to make them not go through with it, and to show them how transparent and easily accessible their intentions are. What would be the point in keeping it secret?
I hope this is bullshit.Tweet
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And this is why I'm wondering why not use that info militarily since Ukraine has a good chance to muster fierce resistance now. Ukraine's best chances is their military holding on and inflicting heavy casualties on the Russian army (especially after the first strike) which will slow down their advance and lowers the public's approval for this operation inside Russia. Once Russia controls an area inside East Ukraine I don't think Ukraine will have much chance regaining it or organizing any kind of resistance inside it.Ukraine might have been easy to take in 2014, e.g. see Crimea and Donbas, but now it will be much tougher. Russia of course have the superior forces and equipment, but that’s not always enough.
There are currently NATO ( US, UK, NE ) flights patrolling Ukrainian skies (RC-135, AWACS, and Global Hawk drones). They would obviously leave once the Russians launch their full on invasion.@VorZakone - Regarding the tweet about NATO covering Ukrainian airspace, I can't find any other source that Kuleba has made that request, not in Western or Eastern media or anywhere else on Twitter. Most of the replies in Ukrainian are asking for a source and thus far none has been provided. So fortunately it appears to just be Twitter horsecrap Edit: Or maybe a misinterpratation.
@Water Melon makes a good point, we could be assisting them with radar coverage.
If anybody can find anything else on it, do feel free to prove me wrong.
Ukraine might have been easy to take in 2014, e.g. see Crimea and Donbas, but now it will be much tougher. Russia of course have the superior forces and equipment, but that’s not always enough.
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Would they Raoul? I've been watching the air movements. Could they just turn off their transponders?There are currently NATO ( US and UK ) flights patrolling Ukrainian skies (RC-135, AWACS, and Global Hawk drones). They would obviously leave once the Russians launch their full on invasion.
Thanks, so as hinted earlier in the thread, no combat craft and no intention of a 'no fly zone' that some of the replies in that Tweet were dreaming of.There are currently NATO ( US, UK, NE ) flights patrolling Ukrainian skies (RC-135, AWACS, and Global Hawk drones). They would obviously leave once the Russians launch their full on invasion.
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A KC-135 is a large mid-air refueling tanker, it will show up on radar regardless of 'transponder'.Would they Raoul? I've been watching the air movements. Could they just turn off their transponders?
They would have to as getting attacked, whether accidentally, inadvertently, or intentionally, could result in a triggering of article 5.Would they Raoul? I've been watching the air movements. Could they just turn off their transponders?
I would not be surprised if there is a nato plane shot down at some point soon.
Worrying times though.
Are the tankers over Ukraine? I've seen the global hawks and rivet joints over there but not the tankers I don't think.A KC-135 is a large mid-air refueling tanker, it will show up on radar regardless of 'transponder'.
These aren't stealth aircraft.
Sorry my mistake. Raoul said RC-135 (not KC)Are the tankers over Ukraine? I've seen the global hawks and rivet joints over there but not the tankers I don't think.
I've looked at the Russian side and not seen any military aircraft, are they all very low altitude or just turning transponders off?
Thanks, yes I understand your pointThey would have to as getting attacked, whether accidentally, inadvertently, or intentionally, could result in a triggering of article 5.
In that scenario Russia is already invading Ukraine, and they're going to be conquered. They're no doubt hoping to avoid it altogether, because they can't win.Surprise them on the battlefield and use that intelligence to inflict heavy casualties by being (militarily) prepared for these advances?
Would it though automatically? Considering it's not on the soil of a NATO nation? We have examples of Turkey's forces being attacked in Syria or the attack on the US base in Iraq or the drone in the Persian Gulf which didn't lead necessarily to triggering article 5. And of course the infamous incident when Turkey downed a Russian plane and NATO refused to back them up in the event of a Russian attack. So I'm not sure one NATO nation leaving forces in Ukraine deliberately so they can be attacked by Russia really fulfills the essence of article 5 automatically, otherwise might as well count Ukraine as a NATO member already then.They would have to as getting attacked, whether accidentally, inadvertently, or intentionally, could result in a triggering of article 5.
That's exactly the vibe I'm getting, I don't think they expect Ukraine to last long anyway despite all this talk about Ukraine having a vastly improved army now. Don't forget, a few months ago we also heard a lot about how the US built a good army in Afghanistan which can show real resistance against Taliban when US leaves, only to discover the next day what they secretly knew all along.In that scenario Russia is already invading Ukraine, and they're going to be conquered. They're no doubt hoping to avoid it altogether, because they can't win.
I can't help but think that the Afghanistan debacle really damaged international US credibility. Not the fact that they withdrew, but how they did it. The chaos, the pretty much instant collapse of the Afghan military etc. I wonder how the Russians perceived that display.That's exactly the vibe I'm getting, I don't think they expect Ukraine to last long anyway despite all this talk about Ukraine having a vastly improved army now. Don't forget, a few months ago we also heard a lot about how the US built a good army in Afghanistan which can show real resistance against Taliban when US leaves, only to discover the next day what they secretly knew all along.
There have been reports of Russian aircrafts flying into Ukrainian airspace today. This is done to light up the Ukrainian air defense radars so they can be detected and engaded in the next stage of the operation.I've looked at the Russian side and not seen any military aircraft, are they all very low altitude or just turning transponders off?
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Sad state but expectedThere have been reports of Russian aircrafts flying into Ukrainian airspace today. This is done to light up the Ukrainian air defense radars so they can be detected and engaded in the next stage of the operation.
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I'm sure he'll pop in as soon as the Jimmy Dore podcast finishes.Just waiting now for FloridaMan to pop by and ask when the invasion was happening, but doubt we will see that.
I'd imagine every possible sanction is on the table at this point.Putin is very likely to go all the way to Kyiv to replace the government. It does look like dark times are ahead for Ukraine. What matters from now on is sanctions. Disconnecting the aggresor from swift, using the money from oligarchs accounts in Europe to provide arms to the Ukranian government will hopefully make the war too costly for Putin to continue. Unfortunately, these sanctions won't happen and Putin is very likely to get away with this.
These were definitely ugly scenes. And the pictures of the people who worked with the US hanging and falling from the wings of the plane...I can't help but think that the Afghanistan debacle really damaged international US credibility. Not the fact that they withdrew, but how they did it. The chaos, the pretty much instant collapse of the Afghan military etc. I wonder how the Russians perceived that display.
I would bloody hope so, Raoul. A slap on the wrist will not be enough this time around. The aggressor will have to suffer financially and basically run out of resources to sustain war, oligarchs and "rebuild" occupied territories.I'd imagine every possible sanction is on the table at this point.