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Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
- Thread starter Wednesday at Stoke
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80% of Russia’s forces are now in attack positions
it’s pretty much nailed on there will be a full scale military invasion.
it’s pretty much nailed on there will be a full scale military invasion.
The article is a bit sensationalist and the figures there are not really trustworthy. The gas contract has been signed long term and favours China massively. In terms of agriculture, Russia imports quite a lot and exports so much less. One of their main drivers, the military industry is already lagging behind and will have even fewer customers from now on. Now imagine being not able to loan money from the west, disconnected from swift and having no access to simple crystals to do chips and semiconductors, while being at war and having to invest in the occupied territories. If the world powers are serious about sanctions, it will be very painful for Russia. Neighbouring countries will queue up for NATO membership too.
You are drawing the wrong lesson from Afghanistan in my view. Afghanistan shows that it is very difficult to bring a large country to heel when you have a critical mass of people with the will and the resources to resist. These last eight years have really hardened Ukrainians against a Putin-led Russia. Ukrainians will have far more desire to defend Ukraine than Russians will have to capture it.
If Russia occupies all of Ukraine, that state will have no stability for the foreseeable future and you will see a lot of resistance.
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Not sure that comparison is very valid either, to be honest. Afghanistan is a vastly more traditional, tribal and rural society than Ukraine. We could definitely see guerilla warfare and some kind of resistance, but the Russian army will have a much easier time actually locking down the country than the US/Afghan government did in Afghanistan.
The US tried to send them Iron Dome missiles, but Israel blocked it since they are jointly developed. The West can't start supplying planes without people to fly them. The failure to provide Surface-to-Air missiles and radar systems will be a disaster though. Supposedly it was too late to provide them with Patriot missiles since there'd be no time to train them. Let's hope their Buks work like they did against MH-17 (
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You can bet your house that it is on unfortunately. God save Ukraine.
Afghanistan also very mountainous terrain, in contrast to mostly flat Ukraine (certainly east Ukraine).
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A puppet state has no chance of stability in Ukraine now. Maidan showed what Ukrainians are now willing to do to get change and that resolve has only been strengthened over eight years.
It’s one thing to capture and occupy a country. It’s another thing to be able to make the state function once it is under your control, particularly when most of the rest of the world will be supporting the resistance.
I don’t have too much doubt that Ukraine will fall if Russia push hard enough and the West doesn’t offer direct support. I do doubt whether Russia can seize genuine control of Ukraine though.
I don’t think that’s true, we don’t know quantities but anti air and anti tank is documented as being sent. One thing we really don’t know is how much NATO have done, we might have armed Ukraine to the teeth or literally sent them a couple of javelins and a pat on the back.
Airspace closure notices been put out now for North-Eastern Ukraine by both Ukraine and Russia.
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Surreal this is happening with such a choreography like fashion announced in advance.
Man even talking about this shit seems so surreal. The West fecked this up bad. Ukraine's future looks bleak at best.
Russia doesn't have to make a profit from their deal with China, Russia's aim is to survive here. Also bear in mind, if the US and Europe go all in against Russia then they're also bound to get some pain from these measures, and I can assure you the majority of people in Europe are not ready to pay a price for Ukraine. In fact, they did a referendum a few years ago in the Netherlands about a mere deal for economic cooperation with Ukraine and the majority (62%) voted against it because they think it will be disadvantageous for them. It's a cruel world I know, but the reality is Ukraine means, after all, much more to Russia than to Europe, something which Obama correctly recognized several years ago. So if Russia can survive a few years, you also have to factor in the other side tiring or giving up.
Germanys stance is to not distribute lethal weapons into crisis areas. Ukraine is no member of NATO. What did you expect?
I don't think this is good. I think they could at least make exceptions for defensive weapons. But Germanys position was pretty clear.
Don't forget that we have a very special place in the history of wars and that sometimes we maybe don't act enough and are to neutral and passive for a nation of our size and power due to that.
The "pathetic" pipeline freeze was not a minor thing though. The immediate reaction of Medwedew proves that.
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What sanctions (if any) would make Putin stop or has he completely gone past caring?
Can't they read the room?
verpissen
We'll pretty much only know this if he escalates. Then the West will throw extremely heavy sanctions at him.
The boxer Vitaly?
Yeah maybe supply something that shoots down planes bombing kindergartens , not helmets. Nobody is asking you to give actual fighter jets or ballistic missiles. And I said pathetic up to the pipeline freeze.
That's right.
This is literally all down to one insecure man/cnut and he isn't in the west.
Having the same frustrations watching the BBC and DW in recent days, although the Newsnight presenter on BBC2 was much more on the ball tonight. Other nights the entire crisis has been talked through from the Putin perspective.
Just because they were "insane murderers" doesn't mean they had no ideology.
20 years of Afghanistan and Iraq has broken peoples brains. This continued inability of people to understand that multiple things can be true and that if the US says X that it must really mean Y is fecking infuriating. This fake balance that "well obviously Putin must have some rational position" is completely at odds with historic reality of unhinged autocrat when they get into this level of expansionist fever.
I agree with you largely here, in fact I already stated before that if Putin goes for all of Ukraine then it might backfire. However, there are a couple of points where I probably differ with you.
First, I think Eastern Ukraine is a different story, I think Russia will have no problem controlling these areas and they will be relatively stable thanks to a considerable Russian constituency there.
Second, I think Ukrainians are different from the Taliban, an ideological religious group who live to fight for their ideology and have no interest in a peaceful civilian life. Ukrainians are different. Yes, they can protest (which could lead to some instability), but it's unlikely that they're gonna be able to form an effective and sustainable armed resistance.
But I agree, if Putin goes all in and takes all of Ukraine, it could lead to years of instability, and it's unclear how it will end.
Macron with words of support. Though one wonders if this is another indication that an attack is coming.
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The sanctions are not on yet and the graph doesn't include the cost of the military buildup and sustaining 200000 troops in the field in a fighting war. Six to eight months of sustaining this effort without Ukrainian capitulation and the Russian economy collapses is the estimate.I don't know why people think any sanctions would be spared against Russia. Clearly maximum sanctions will be implemented against Russia, the real question is how much it will actually hurt them. Russia has been learning from the sanctions in 2014 and preparing for further sanctions ever since, and they have taken many measures to diminish their effect, a few examples mentioned in the article below. Additionally, Russia sold almost all of their stockpile in the US treasury bonds in the last few years (which was around $150 billion in 2013) to avoid having them frozen or taken by the US at any point (like they did with Afghanistan). And on top of all that, alienating China in the last couple of years will definitely weaken these sanctions considerably.
Russia's plan to fight back against Western sanctions
https://www.bbc.com/news/business-60480904
I doubt it was broadcast in Russia.