Something around 50-100 is good for peace. I'd say, but 6000... yeah, that's overkill
Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion
- Thread starter Wednesday at Stoke
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The numbers in thousands are just ridiculous.
Yes it requires more than 1 person.
A recent example was General Milley, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, communicating with the equivalent in China during the days after Jan 6, to assure that even if Trump was unhinged, there would be no military action against China. So we hope there can be similar conversations ongoing here.
In the US, in theory the military is supposed to acknowledge and just follow the president's orders. But the the unofficial theory is that exactly because you're putting people (and powerful ones at that) in between the president and the launch, they'll get a chance to deny the orders.
They also don't serve any real purpose in those numbers. As a deterrent, it's sufficient to wipe out your enemies once, not 15 times
Sure, if it's USA.
4 minutes window? Realistically impossible for human to react. It's one thing having the instruction to "PUSH THIS Incase of Emergency" I'd hazard a guess everyone on the button will froze for a few minute to the very least.
While I also don't think we'll get to nukes, even an increase from a 0.00001% chance to a 0.00002% chance, it's way, way too close for comfort for me given I have an idea about nuclear contamination, Russian oppression and the Eastern European psyche.
If you approach this logically though, Putler might try to control the media and whatnot in Russia BUT if your banking system go to shit, people will start asking questions sooner rather than later.
So maybe Putin is trying to get max leverage before these talks and hopefully extract enough, so he doesn't look like the loser and coward that he is. But even if gets something resembling a 'success', the sanctions will stay, so Russia is done for, surely.
If you approach this logically though, Putler might try to control the media and whatnot in Russia BUT if your banking system go to shit, people will start asking questions sooner rather than later.
So maybe Putin is trying to get max leverage before these talks and hopefully extract enough, so he doesn't look like the loser and coward that he is. But even if gets something resembling a 'success', the sanctions will stay, so Russia is done for, surely.
I think it makes More sense to have Sean Bean as Putin.
Ralph Fiennes, obviously
The guys tasked with sitting in our nuclear silos waiting for a launch command are called “minutemen”. It takes under 5 minutes to go from the usual state of readiness to nukes in the air.
Putin is 70... he might not want to live to see the consequences of his action, and you'll seriously never know what might happen.
He could at the spur of moment says "hit it" and it's all kaboosh
What is the purpose of the talks? Can they really come to an agreement?
My theory which I hope I'm wrong about:
The talks are a BS showpiece from the Russians so they can say "See, they don't want peace" and that gives them a reason to escalate
Nuclear I just cannot see unless Putin feels his walls closing in even more. I can't see him going quietly or just accepting defeat
My theory which I hope I'm wrong about:
The talks are a BS showpiece from the Russians so they can say "See, they don't want peace" and that gives them a reason to escalate
Nuclear I just cannot see unless Putin feels his walls closing in even more. I can't see him going quietly or just accepting defeat
These Ukrainians are fecking mad, driving up to a miltary truck and tossing a molotov on it.
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Makes me think they can settle on LDR and Donbas being neutral, Ukraine remaining a free country and he pitches this as a success. Then the West lifts sanctions within a few weeks or immediately.
I've put my best bottle of whiskey to start chilling down, just in case.
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Come on, Russian arent' idiot, I think they know what's going on. It's 2022, whatsapp, videos, telegram, direct vids, emails, I think it's impossible to contain such a global wave of information.
They might not have the most details bits and pieces, but I think they have a general understanding of where they stand
But if both sides bring a rocket launcher….there will be no fight, and that is why we have them.
A terrible invention, but they are here and sadly too say. Anyone who believes Nuclear disarmament is a possibility one day, is sadly living amongst the fairies.
Exactly why I think all this naive talk of 'it'll never happen'. Some of the same people were saying Putin would never invade earlier this week.
The 4 minute warning was the point during the Cold War when missiles could be positively identified: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Four-minute_warning
At most maybe double it from when the missiles are launched?
Also given that we are a small country and easily destroyed, the PM sets out his or her instructions on retailiaton as soon as they take office. We do not have the time to launch a retaliatory strike like the US do: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Letters_of_last_resort
Yes, agreed. Was just making the point that using ICBMs even the USA only gets around half an hour's worth off warning time before Armageddon.
Sounds like Germany is finally waking up. Soft power can only take you so far.
Yes I've been listening a lot and have much the same opinion as you. Walter is the guy worth listening to for updates, he is more wired in to goings on on the ground than anybody else. There's a few other good rational people there and other just desperate to show off their knowledge of certain things, with a few wack opinions thrown in.
What's scary is that even if it's a false alarm the respond would surely be launch without any attempt to double check, to be fair with 4 minutes window there's not much you can do.
Scarry.
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Are you chilling the whisky? That's a no no
Whatsapp is facebook and that's already blocked or can easily be.
Russia, I think, has its own version of the internet as a back-up, so again, censorship is far stronger than you might think.
You also vastly overestimate the online capability of the older generation in Russia, especially outside the larger cities.
For protests to be successful, the young are not enough, you need broad support because this is not a democracy.
Putin's decision to invade Ukraine with all consequences involved (sanctions, isolation, domestic protests) will go down in history books as one of the worst decisions ever made by a world leader.
Bud, I don’t think the end of civilization is the time to be splitting hairs about that
Hopefully only outmatched by historical decisions to invade Russia itself.
Yeah, always have been. Never said I'm perfect
Ukranians have also been waiting 3 days to cross the border, there is a process, unfortunately. Others from 'third countries' (non-EU/Schengen) are apparently being sent to the back of the line.
They are pretty much safe there at least, though it takes time for enough aid and shelter to get there for them.
war crime level basically
One thing that I'm blown away by, other than the remarkable people of Ukraine, is that after 20 years of trying to destabilise the west, weaken Nato and The EU, distance the US and UK from the rest of Europe, interference in politics and elections, confusing messaging tactics, financial influencing tactics and trying to implement an energy dependency by Putin. Its all been undone in less than 4 days and brought everyone together again. Nato will be stronger after this as will the western unity.
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From now on, any demonstration of support for Ukraine is considered a treason and can lead up to 20 years in jail. Russia is fecked.
I thought that was the name of the missile?