Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

[ooeat0meoo]

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[ooeat0meoo]

It appears things will get worse, as everyone has been saying.

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[Jotun]

Interesting post.

Regarding the bolded part - what are the similarities here? I mean, we saw massive ethnic cleansing, civil war etc, with NATO intervening because of the sheer brutality (and other things). Serbia/Yugoslavia didn’t reach their political goals because the world stopped them from reaching them, no?

No. NATO did not intervene in Yugoslavia independence wars. Only in Kosovo war in 1999 (that's where you see the Serbian complaints about NATO).

Regarding similarities. Both conflicts were completely asymmetric. In prelude to the war JNA (yugoslav army) moved almost all weapons and arms to the Serbia, basically leaving Croatia, Slovenia and Bosnia almost defenseless. They instigated local population to revolt supported by paramilitaries (similar to LNR and DNR) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_Serbian_Krajina.

To "stop the conflict" international community proclaimed embargo on all weapon sales. Basically Serbians had all the weapons and independence faction couldn't get any legally (that's why there are weapon smugglers though). At the time JNA had a reputation for being a powerful force even though dated. Another similarity with Russians. Basically, the mighty Yugoslav army was stopped by small arms infantry. I think it's a great example how determined defenders fueled by animosity can stop more powerful enemy.

Another similarity is propaganda. Much like Putin, Milosevic (Yugoslav/Serbian president) used propaganda of saving the Serbians (from Croats).

Here's where the similarities stop. Unlike Serbians and Croatians/Bosnians where animosity was mutual. Russians love Ukrainians. What I'm saying is Serbians were highly motivated to fight. Then there was of course a lot of motivated fighters that fought for preservation of Tito's Yugoslavia rather than Great Serbia. Russians don't know what they are doing in Ukraine and only part of their army that know what it's doing is artillery. Although to be frank, artillery is their main strength.

Basically, Yugoslavian army had motivated fighters, significantly bigger advantage in weapons and their enemies were not propped/supported up by west. Although, before the end of the war USA did support Croatian and Bosnian forces in an advisory role.

Oh, another similarity, much like Azov battalion for Ukraine, Croatia also had paramilitary forces with Neo-nazi symbolism, which was later absorbed into regular army.

 

[GlastonSpur]

Well in Big Bad Vlad’s mind, isn’t this all just friendly fire on his own cities currently dictated to by the criminal Zelinsky?

No, it isn't, but it's what Putin wants people to think. It's all about Putin fearing the spread into Russia of the example set by the existence of a free and democratic Ukraine. Everything else - e.g. concerns about NATO becoming a greater military threat to Russia if Ukraine is allowed to join them - is just smokescreen lies.

It's important for the West to be totally clear that this is about nothing else except freedom and democracy vs. control and repression.

 

[ooeat0meoo]

My estimation of Anonymous has gone up by infinity. I'm sure they'll bring it back down again soon enough, but it's nice while it lasts.

But it's good they stay vigilant.
Anonymous has always had an ebb and flow.

To be honest, lots of these individuals wind up working for the military intel agencies. Hopefully not as many go work for Putin as some have through the years.

 

[TMDaines]

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[ooeat0meoo]

Sorry if this was posted already

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[Skåre Willoch]

A pretty massive difference to start is the world let them go on for 4 years and put an arms embargo on nations like Bosnia so we couldn't defend ourselves, while it didn't impact the Serbs as they had the Yugoslav army. They only stepped in when it became clear that they were committing genocide against Bosnians.
Here, despite not actively stepping in, they are at least sending weaponry and support to what is a decent sized army in the first place?

The similarities IMO are the ideologies in place. Putin doesn't think Ukraine should be a country and that the land belongs to Russia. Serbs had goals of a greater Serbia and felt that land belonged to them, that the Bosnian identity didn't exist and there was no place for them in their country, etc. So the core basis behind the attack is similar I'd say. There's similarities in the dominant super power just shelling cities and civilian buildings without care. The resistance is the biggest difference I'd say.

No. NATO did not intervene in Yugoslavia independence wars. Only in Kosovo war in 1999 (that's where you see the Serbian complaints about NATO).

Regarding similarities. Both conflicts were completely asymmetric. In prelude to the war JNA (yugoslav army) moved almost all weapons and arms to the Serbia, basically leaving Croatia, Slovenia and Bosnia almost defenseless. They instigated local population to revolt supported by paramilitaries (similar to LNR and DNR) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republic_of_Serbian_Krajina.

To "stop the conflict" international community proclaimed embargo on all weapon sales. Basically Serbians had all the weapons and independence faction couldn't get any legally (that's why there are weapon smugglers though). At the time JNA had a reputation for being a powerful force even though dated. Another similarity with Russians. Basically, the mighty Yugoslav army was stopped by small arms infantry. I think it's a great example how determined defenders fueled by animosity can stop more powerful enemy.

Another similarity is propaganda. Much like Putin, Milosevic (Yugoslav/Serbian president) used propaganda of saving the Serbians (from Croats).

Here's where the similarities stop. Unlike Serbians and Croatians/Bosnians where animosity was mutual. Russians love Ukrainians. What I'm saying is Serbians were highly motivated to fight. Then there was of course a lot of motivated fighters that fought for preservation of Tito's Yugoslavia rather than Great Serbia. Russians don't know what they are doing in Ukraine and only part of their army that know what it's doing is artillery. Although to be frank, artillery is their main strength.

Basically, Yugoslavian army had motivated fighters, significantly bigger advantage in weapons and their enemies were not propped/supported up by west. Although, before the end of the war USA did support Croatian and Bosnian forces in an advisory role.

Oh, another similarity, much like Azov battalion for Ukraine, Croatia also had paramilitary forces with Neo-nazi symbolism, which was later absorbed into regular army.

Thanks, this is very informative.

 

[Beans]

Not unless the Putin regime collapses after failing in Ukraine and there's a momentary power vacuum between Russian governments to where the Ukrainians see a window of opportunity.

What would allow Russia to hold Crimea when/if they have to retreat elsewhere? Geography? Looks like a difficult place to invade, would need Patton and his amphibious assault teams like in Italy in WWII.

Obviously no one is trying to go into Russia proper with an army.

 

[Jotun]

What would allow Russia to hold Crimea when/if they have to retreat elsewhere? Geography? Looks like a difficult place to invade, would need Patton and his amphibious assault teams like in Italy in WWII.

Obviously no one is trying to go into Russia proper with an army.

Population is Russian ethnic and mostly pro Russia, at least it was before annexation. Who knows now. According to Ukrainian poster, there was always talk of them joining Russia or independence. But if Russian economy tanks, perhaps they might want to switch back to Ukraine. Otherwise, if Ukraine tries to invade it might become a reverse scenario. Where they get bogged down in hostile territory against local population.

 

[GlastonSpur]

Geography is the obvious problem.
Russia doesn't want a country the size of the Ukraine as part of a NATO (an alliance that was specifically set up to oppose the former Soviet Union) on its doorstep. Ukraine is now a sovereign country and wants total autonomy/freedom from its massive neighbour (whose President still seems intent on building a new style Soviet Union).
If seems obvious that at some point for any sort of ongoing peace to have a chance to exist, that there would have to be some form of demilitarized zone, keeping both apart, its whereabouts (geographically) and how big would that have to be and who would oversee the demilitarization (presumably the UN) would be necessary.
Presumably when Putin captures/secures as much land as he thinks is necessary, he will come to the table.

That's not the real issue at all. NATO was set up to defend against (not oppose) the Soviet Union - and a defensive alliance it remains. Neither Putin nor anyone else actually believes that NATO would ever invade a nuclear-armed, vast country like Russia. Putin's claim that NATO is a military threat to Russia is just a smokescreen lie.

He is concerned only about the spread into Russia of the example set by the existence of a free and democratic Ukraine. That's why he want to crush Ukraine.

 

[Sir Matt]

Left it out because I wasn't replying to it. It's a subjective matter to say if they're accurate enough or not. Just yesterday CNN had a headline "Russia exhausted 95% of its troops".

Again, just seems to me like an easy way for the rest of the world to go to sleep easier thinking Ukraine is fighting back without actually committing to the fight. Saying "yeah, this sucks but we kinda don't wanna get our hands dirty. Sorry Ukraine, was nice knowing ya!" doesn't sound as good.

So your opinion is we can't possibly know anything because no source is entirely reliable? That's absurd and aligns with what Putin wants people to believe. That's why they put out countless alternative stories for any atrocity or crime they commit. Bellingcat, to keep using them, had their research and documentation used in the official inquiry into the MH17 attack by Russian soldiers. They helped identify the two men responsible for trying to assassinate Sergei Skripal in the UK. They also identified the men responsible for poisoning Navalny.

What CNN was reporting was the US assessment that 95% of the troops Russia had assembled for the invasion had been moved into Ukraine. Today that's nearly 100%. They never said that, regardless of CNN's chyron, that Russia had used 95% of all of its armed forces.

 

[Eurotrash]

Sorry if this was posted already

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Russian warship, go f yourself.

 

[TwoSheds]

If Russia do fall back, does Ukraine try to take Crimea back?

I think this is a very good question. It's comparatively easy fighting the Russians if the population are on your side, probably a lot harder if they're not. So if the Crimeans are largely pro-Russia then maybe you'd just want to take a foothold in Crimea?

Armiansk, Krasnoperekopsk and Dzhankoi perhaps rather than trying to go all the way to Sevastopol? If you're very fair and provide economic opportunities to the local population you could hope that the goodwill would continue to spread and put you in a better position later.

 

[ooeat0meoo]

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[Jotun]

I think this is a very good question. It's comparatively easy fighting the Russians if the population are on your side, probably a lot harder if they're not. So if the Crimeans are largely pro-Russia then maybe you'd just want to take a foothold in Crimea?

Armiansk, Krasnoperekopsk and Dzhankoi perhaps rather than trying to go all the way to Sevastopol? If you're very fair and provide economic opportunities to the local population you could hope that the goodwill would continue to spread and put you in a better position later.

Apparently, as Crimea is now cut off from Ukraine infrastructure living is very hard. So population might have incentive of coming back to Ukraine. On the other hand, they've been exposed to Russian propaganda for years now.

 

[ooeat0meoo]

Of the estimated 20,000 international soldiers who've volunteered, some are now on the ground in Ukraine

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[ooeat0meoo]

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[TMDaines]

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[ooeat0meoo]

Ukraine forces have been successful at targeting Russian fuel trucks.

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[Revan]

If Russia do fall back, does Ukraine try to take Crimea back?

No. Putin will call that an invasion on Russia, and nuke the Ukrainian forces.

 

[VorZakone]

What's Ukraine's current amount of combat troops? If it's true that they have 900,000 reservists (according to Reuters), then how the feck do the Russians think they're capturing Kyiv? Thousands of Russians will die in urban combat.

 

[Raoul]

What's Ukraine's current amount of combat troops? If it's true that they have 900,000 reservists (according to Reuters), then how the feck do the Russians think they're capturing Kyiv? Thousands of Russians will die in urban combat.

I think Putin's strategy at this point is to ruin as much of Ukraine as possible before he has to inevitably pull back after realizing he doesn't (and won't ever) have the resources to actually take over and hold Ukraine. If he can kill Zelenskyy and other Ukrainian leaders in the process, then that will be a bonus to him as he may think it would allow him to create a Donbas style frozen conflict throughout all of Ukraine, thereby preventing it from joining NATO or the EU. That's probably his most realistic, best case scenario at this point.

 

[Beans]

Population is Russian ethnic and mostly pro Russia, at least it was before annexation. Who knows now. According to Ukrainian poster, there was always talk of them joining Russia or independence. But if Russian economy tanks, perhaps they might want to switch back to Ukraine. Otherwise, if Ukraine tries to invade it might become a reverse scenario. Where they get bogged down in hostile territory against local population.

That's a fair point, they preferred independence to Ukraine. Still, they didn't have a legit referendum to leave so UKR govt can't just let Russia stay, legally.

 

[TMDaines]

Reuters apparently are still cascading reports from TASS at face value, which is staggering.

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[VorZakone]

I think Putin's strategy at this point is to ruin as much of Ukraine as possible before he has to inevitably pull back after realizing he doesn't (and won't ever) have the resources to actually take over and hold Ukraine. If he can kill Zelenskyy and other Ukrainian leaders in the process, then that will be a bonus to him as he may think it would allow him to create a Donbas style frozen conflict throughout all of Ukraine, thereby preventing it from joining NATO or the EU. That's probably his most realistic, best case scenario at this point.

Agreed with the frozen conflict point.

 

[Beans]

No. Putin will call that an invasion on Russia, and nuke the Ukrainian forces.

But he could do that now in Ukraine, Crimea is not legitimately part of Russia. Obviously no one would recommend invading actual Russia. But Putin can say anything that isn't Russia is Russia and threaten nukes. Having lived during the cold war I'm not very impressed with these threats.

However I will admit that's a very unique situation, Russia isn't giving up their naval base in Crimea without a big fight. It might be necessary to give them some of Crimea.

(Edit: why is P.u.t.l.e.r. being changed to Jimmy Saville?)

 

[Pintu]

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This is not fake by the way.

 

[DavidDeSchmikes]

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[Sir Matt]

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[FerociousCorgis]

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what the feck does this tweet even mean? Absolute mental stuff. No idea how anyone cant condemn russia for what they are doing.

 

[RedDevilQuebecois]

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Fecking hell.

After stuff like that, how long do you think it will take before Ukrainian forces retaliate against actual and future Russian prisoners? History is littered with moments of bloody retaliation during wartime, especially when civilians become targeted by the numbers at first.

 

[cyberman]

Fecking hell.

After stuff like that, how long do you think it will take before Ukrainian forces retaliate against actual and future Russian prisoners? History is littered with moments of bloody retaliation during wartime, especially when civilians become targeted by the numbers at first.

When will Russian leaders in Moscow be a target? It’s madness to think this won’t follow Russia home

 

[nickm]

Ukraine forces have been successful at targeting Russian fuel trucks.

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This is great. This is how Ukraine can win.

 

[hellhunter]

Swiss journalist attacked, shot at and robbed of confiscated his money and laptop.

Spoiler: Bloody

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[ChaddyP]

That's not the real issue at all. NATO was set up to defend against (not oppose) the Soviet Union - and a defensive alliance it remains. Neither Putin nor anyone else actually believes that NATO would ever invade a nuclear-armed, vast country like Russia. Putin's claim that NATO is a military threat to Russia is just a smokescreen lie.

He is concerned only about the spread into Russia of the example set by the existence of a free and democratic Ukraine. That's why he want to crush Ukraine.

Been saying this the whole time. If he was actually scared NATO would threaten Russia with military action he wouldn't have invaded Ukraine in the first place. He knows they are toothless unless you actually invade a NATO country itself and up to February even that was up in the air

 

[Revan]

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This is essentially the ending of Mass Effect 3.

 

[Buster15]

Ruble has declined from 76 = $1 a month ago, to 147 = $1 today - i.e. it's almost halved in value.

And will hopefully half again and again.

 

[Spark]

Fecking hell.

After stuff like that, how long do you think it will take before Ukrainian forces retaliate against actual and future Russian prisoners? History is littered with moments of bloody retaliation during wartime, especially when civilians become targeted by the numbers at first.

With the shooting of journalists, shelling of civilians in their homes and on specific escape routes, this sort of thing will not be a surprise to any Ukrainian fighting. They're up against a truly ruthless and barbaric bunch with next to no scruples.

On the prisoner point, there will be plenty of Ukrainian POWs not being filmed by Russia. Also, wartime discipline is a sign of a more advanced and cohesive army. However, it might be that fewer Russians are taken prisoner in the first place.

 

[IWat]

But it's good they stay vigilant.
Anonymous has always had an ebb and flow.

To be honest, lots of these individuals wind up working for the military intel agencies. Hopefully not as many go work for Putin as some have through the years.

Anonymous themselves are not really seen as an APT level actor. Their attacks usually exploit very well known vulnerabilities in widely used software rather than them finding zero-days or unique exploits. They also from my understanding often get tipped off by professional security researchers who don't want to carry out crimes themselves but are not against sharing the information for others to use. They're also not really one core team, pretty much anyone can hack under the anonymous flag.