A second, more optimistic view turns this take on its head and sees a
Ukrainian victory unfolding over the coming months. This interpretation notes that Russian advances have
stalled all along the
1,000-kilometer (620-mile) front; that Ukraine has used Western-supplied long-range precision artillery, such as the U.S.
High Mobility Artillery Rocket System, or HIMARS, to neutralize Russia’s principal military advantage by
striking Russian artillery ammunition depots far behind the front line; and that Ukrainian forces seem to be
gearing up for a major
offensive, which Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has announced will take place around the southern Ukrainian city of Kherson. The best policy for the West, therefore, is to double down on supplying Ukraine and allow it to hand Russia a defeat.
Although Russia could theoretically draw on a population more than double that of Ukraine’s, Moscow may not be able tap its larger pool of manpower. Ukraine views this war as existential; at the outset of hostilities, the government
barred most men between the ages of 18 and 60 from leaving the country in preparation for a military draft. According to Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov, Ukraine is mobilizing a fighting force of
1 million people, including about 700,000 people in the armed forces and another 300,000 people in other parts of the security apparatus, such as the police and border guard. Even if not all of these personnel will be directly committed to the front lines and will likely be unevenly trained, it still represents a substantial commitment.