Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

[Sir Matt]

I do hope this was Russia and not some well-meaning so called "ally" trying to make sure Germany doesn't strike a deal with Russia... otherwise severe questions would have to be asked...

I don’t see how it makes much sense for anyone but Russia to be responsible. I would expect the US or UK (basically the only other Navies likely capable) could be more subtle than blowing it up with something that registered on seismographs.

It makes far more sense as a coercive measure from Russia and threat against other pipelines, like those from Norway.

 

[Beans]

"Timothy Ash, a senior emerging markets sovereign strategist, said the allegations that Russia could be behind the damage were "remarkable."

"So a number of holes appeared in these pipelines, which are thick and buried deep. This has to be subs, likely Russian subs," he said in an emailed note, adding that it would be "incredible" if Russia was found to have been willing "to cause such risks to shipping in the Baltics.""

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/27/rus...ter-leaks-found-on-nord-stream-pipelines.html

"Leaks of this size are a severe safety and environmental hazard, especially should Russia not stop pumping gas into the system."

Is that the point, to cause an environmental hazard? If they don't stop pumping gas that will tell us all we need to know.

 

[glazed]

If the North Sea gas pipelines get hit then western Europe is in serious trouble. We are already on the edge of blackout territory. UK has only a few days of gas storage. Germany has the most - about three months as I recollect.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

I do hope this was Russia and not some well-meaning so called "ally" trying to make sure Germany doesn't strike a deal with Russia... otherwise severe questions would have to be asked...

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[VorZakone]

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[dove]

We all know who did it but proving it is going to be hard and I think not everyone would want to even do that and risk to "humiliate" certain someone so we will just do nothing to not cause any escalations.

 

[Rajma]

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That’s how Russian propaganda works btw.

 

[The Firestarter]

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Why would Putin want to damage their own pipeline, if he doesn't want to pump gas he just won't as it was the case up till now.

 

[Bosnian_fan]

An idea came to me in terms of "escalation", and I haven't seen it mentioned this far.

Russia are threatening with nuclear weapons if their territory is attacked, and while their territories have been attacked (both Crimea and Belgorod), Ukrainian army hasn't actually set foot there.

With annexation of these new territories, they will have in their own mind Ukraine actually fighting on the territory of Russia. I'm not speaking here from perspective of military terminology, as I'm completely lacking in that sense. But what if Russians, in their own crazy terms of this war, see Ukrainian army setting foot on "their" ground as escalation, rather than rockets and missiles fired at them?

 

[Rajma]

Why would Putin want to damage their own pipeline, if he doesn't want to pump gas he just won't as it was the case up till now.

Signal to west and markets (for price increases = pressure from consumers) as to be wary of ‘attacks’ on Norway’s pipe during the winter aka look of what we’re capable of…

 

[Abizzz]

Why would Putin want to damage their own pipeline, if he doesn't want to pump gas he just won't as it was the case up till now.

To use a now useless asset to show what could be done to other pipelines in the area (without attacking any NATO asset as it's owned by Russia). Don't think it's a coincidence this happened the day another north-sea pipeline opened.

 

[Rajma]

To use a now useless asset to show what could be done to other pipelines in the area (without attacking any NATO asset as it's owned by Russia). Don't think it's a coincidence this happened the day another north-sea pipeline opened.

Exactly.

 

[spiriticon]

I don't understand why Ukraine won't hold a referendum at the same time to declare the regions Ukrainian. We can have referendums every week on this matter until the end of time.

I suppose they have better things to do than to be stupid like the Kremlin

 

[The Firestarter]

To use a now useless asset to show what could be done to other pipelines in the area (without attacking any NATO asset as it's owned by Russia). Don't think it's a coincidence this happened the day another north-sea pipeline opened.

I dont think anyone doubts that pipelines can be destroyed. Same as underwater optic cables.

 

[Bosnian_fan]

Should Ukraine hold any sort of referendum, it would signal that there is some sort of dispute over the regions. Ukraine doesn't need any sort of referendum, these things are undisputedly Ukrainian.

 

[Abizzz]

I dont think anyone doubts that pipelines can be destroyed. Same as underwater optic cables.

By the same token no one doubts atomic bombs can be dropped. To demonstrate ones willingness would be another thing though.

 

[The Firestarter]

By the same token no one doubts atomic bombs can be dropped. To demonstrate ones willingness would be another thing though.

Not sure whats your point or even how it is even remotely equivalent to using nuclear weapons.

 

[dove]

I don't understand why Ukraine won't hold a referendum at the same time to declare the regions Ukrainian. We can have referendums every week on this matter until the end of time.

I suppose they have better things to do than to be stupid like the Kremlin

Well, the territories are occupied by Russian soldiers so it would be quite hard to do that at this moment.

 

[nimic]

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Nord Stream 2 was ended, it's already dead. There is no connection to that statement.

 

[massi83]

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[spiriticon]

Well, the territories are occupied by Russian soldiers so it would be quite hard to do that at this moment.

It doesn't seem to stop Russia from holding one in a safehouse anyway and saying they 'represent the region'

I mean it's bollocks, we all know that. These referenda change nothing.

 

[Carolina Red]

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[Abizzz]

Not sure whats your point or even how it is even remotely equivalent to using nuclear weapons.

Not sure how much clearer I can spell it out for you. He could have done it to make everyone think twice about their next step. I'm not saying he's done it. Just laying out possible motivations. He thinks he can scare western democracies into giving up on Ukraine, and this might be one step in the plethora of Putins scare tactics.

 

[Eurotrash]

Why would Putin want to damage their own pipeline, if he doesn't want to pump gas he just won't as it was the case up till now.

Environmental blackmail maybe? I don't know if it is technically possible, but maybe Russia could turn on the gas on their end and it gushes out in the baltic sea?

 

[The Firestarter]

Not sure how much clearer I can spell it out for you. He could have done it to make everyone think twice about their next step. I'm not saying he's done it. Just laying out possible motivations. He thinks he can scare western democracies into giving up on Ukraine, and this might be one step in the plethora of Putins scare tactics.

That was clear already , I asked about the comment about the nukes which makes no sense.

 

[glazed]

This was the Russians. Why?

1) It will push up gas futures by adding a new element of risk just when prices were beginning to drop.

2) It is completely deniable. If they hit North Sea pipelines they can say 'well who knows who did it - after all our own pipleines were hit too.'' Nobody will believe them but nobody can prove otherwise.

3) If western Europe is deprived of North Sea gas, this winter is going to be very difficult indeed.

The Americans have no reason to hit two piplelines that are already non-operational. If anything they would want western Europe to get gas. But Russia has quite a large army or twitter bots, which you will now see rolling out the idea that Biden did this.

 

[Abizzz]

That was clear already , I asked about the comment about the nukes which makes no sense.

Somebody who has done something once is seen as more likely to do it again. Clear enough now?

 

[B20]

This is a very big thing in Denmark. The national operative staff has been invoked, which is basically the crisis unit pooled from state, health, internal and foreign ministries, police, military and intelligence community, to be able to enact a coordinated response in times of national crisis or emergency. A german military cruiser has just arrived in the waters as well-

Political party leaders have already been informed that this was an intentional attack, since /A it is virtually impossible for it to be a natural event so far apart, and B/Explosions were recorded in the area earlier by Danish, Swedish and Norwegian sources. A former military diver just gave an interview saying that evidence of such sabotage is impossible to hide so it will be confirmed soon enough.

If this can be traced to Russia, this could get very big indeed. This is way bigger than a 'see what we can do' innuendo. It is an act of terror and escalation against a NATO state.

 

[Pogue Mahone]

Nord Stream 2 was ended, it's already dead. There is no connection to that statement.

Ah yeah. Just an unfortunate statement/tweet in the context of what happened today.

 

[The Firestarter]

Somebody who has done something once is seen as more likely to do it again. Clear enough now?

So Putin won't use nukes because he hasn't used nukes so far. Gotcha.

 

[africanspur]

I feel like we're entering probably the most dangerous period of this war so far. Definitely feels like we're entering a time when escalation is possible and direct conflict between Russia and NATO states seems possible.

 

[Zehner]

"Timothy Ash, a senior emerging markets sovereign strategist, said the allegations that Russia could be behind the damage were "remarkable."

"So a number of holes appeared in these pipelines, which are thick and buried deep. This has to be subs, likely Russian subs," he said in an emailed note, adding that it would be "incredible" if Russia was found to have been willing "to cause such risks to shipping in the Baltics.""

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/09/27/rus...ter-leaks-found-on-nord-stream-pipelines.html

"Leaks of this size are a severe safety and environmental hazard, especially should Russia not stop pumping gas into the system."

Is that the point, to cause an environmental hazard? If they don't stop pumping gas that will tell us all we need to know.

Thought the same but couldn't they just pump the gas in the atmosphere directly from the drills? Would be kind of pointless to do it that way.

 

[Raoul]

Use tampons to stop the bleeding. FFS

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[B20]

Modern Russia is basically a parody of the Soviet Union. So many tweets and reports that feel like they are skits in a dark comedy.

 

[VorZakone]

How easily can sabotage be proven?

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[Beans]

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[Beans]

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[VorZakone]

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[sun_tzu]

So what's Putin's next move...

Declare the Donbas is Russia and say Ukraine has invaded Russian territory whilst America / Nato is sabotaging its infrastructure?

Is there an endgame other than escalate to de-escalate?

 

[Rajma]

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Russia supplying frontlines with iodine.