Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

[TMDaines]

Incredible to see people crying about murderers, rapists and enslavers turning on each other, rather than just getting on with more murder, rape and enslavement.

 

[The Firestarter]

Incredible to see people crying about murderers, rapists and enslavers turning on each other, rather than just getting on with more murder, rape and enslavement.

The same types who wanted Ukraine to be occupied quickly so there is less bloodshed.

 

[Zehner]

But the problem there is the battlefield is merely being moved,

The Ukrainian war won't end straight away, and if the Wagner group did gain power, or at least Putin lost power, there's no guarantee that the Ukrainian war would end, or troops be pulled out.

At the VERY least it interferes strongly with Russian logistics, reserve planning, morale and communication which is already a huge, huge positive for Ukraine. At best the invasion is about to implode completely within the next few days and I doubt Ukraine with its new weaponry will have to give up any territory they recapture in the near future, even if whoever wins the power struggle really decides to come back (chances are he takes the coup as an excuse to stop the war efforts).

 

[Mr Pigeon]

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Potential domino effect incoming?

 

[MTF]

but they are also fighting in Syria, Libya, the Central African Republic, Mail, North Sudan and Yemen.
I want Putin gone as much as the next man, but a coup by a privately funded multinational paramilitary group that doesn't seem to answer anymore to any state, only its funders? how can that possibly end well.

Privately funded? It's just the Russian state and client states that fund them. Up until yesterday this was a de facto arm of the Russian state.

 

[Charlie Foley]

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[TMDaines]

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[cyberman]

but they are also fighting in Syria, Libya, the Central African Republic, Mail, North Sudan and Yemen.
I want Putin gone as much as the next man, but a coup by a privately funded multinational paramilitary group that doesn't seem to answer anymore to any state, only its funders? how can that possibly end well.

Wouldn’t there just be a power vacuum in Russia now that’ll take up their time?
Honestly, if they aren’t as nuke mad then it can only be good for the rest of the world

 

[Zehner]

Things can't be in two places at once. Any vehicle lost in Russia is one vehicle less attacking Ukraine. Any missiles expended at Wagner is one missle less aimed at Urkaine. Wagner moving on Russia probably means tens of thousand Russian soldiers less in Ukraine. Surely that's not so hard to grasp? And besides, Russia imploding is the quickest route to peace anyway.

Plus both forces will be far mote hesitant to cause civilian casualties in their homeland than in Ukraine since it could cost them domestic support.

 

[Camy89]

If this does go to an all out assault for Moscow, it stands to reason that no troops will be brought in from the Ukrainian battlefield, that'd take too long to get any troops there.

Meanwhile attacks are still continuing in Ukraine.

I don’t understand what you want?

Putin will never back out of Ukraine. Do
You want Wagner group to stop what they’re doing, come to their senses and go back to Ukraine to continue the slaughter and war that’ll likely last years?

Or do you want Wagner to continue with their push on Russian defence putting at risk Russian lives and potentially, country with civil war?

Or do you want them to laydown arms, surrender to Russia and the Ukraine war continues?

There’s no good solution here, so vehemently commenting whilst sitting on the fence does absolutely nothing.

I don’t want the war full stop, it’s fecking shite, but at least this challenge to power is a potential out from the absolute shitstorm we find ourselves in. The other options don’t even have a glimmer of an out.

 

[Sir Matt]

but they are also fighting in Syria, Libya, the Central African Republic, Mail, North Sudan and Yemen.
I want Putin gone as much as the next man, but a coup by a privately funded multinational paramilitary group that doesn't seem to answer anymore to any state, only its funders? how can that possibly end well.

Wagner's funding isn't really private. It's all from the Russian state. Wagner was created to give Russia more latitude to act overseas without "officially" acting. Their forces in Africa are there for plunder and influence. There's not a secret private cabal running Wagner. Putin just gave Wagner and Prigozhin too many resources and too much independence.

 

[The Firestarter]

Just saw a post from a Russian acquaintance of mine, that Wagner has taken over a prison in Rostov, inviting inmates to join them. Some real life Game of thrones shit.

 

[unchanged_lineup]

Comments like this should be ban worthy.

Disgusting comment

Russia are the aggressors. It's about time they felt what it's like inside their own borders.

 

[Zehner]

Wouldn’t there just be a power vacuum in Russia now that’ll take up their time?
Honestly, if they aren’t as nuke mad then it can only be good for the rest of the world

The issue is that some of the people outside of Putin's bubble are even more radical. Wagner committed terrible atrocities on behalf of Prighozin and guys like Girlin openly opted for the use of tactical nukes.

The best outcome IMO could be that Putin takes home a very costly win and is so weakened that his downfall is only a matter of time, but not to Wagner or other lunatics

 

[Adisa]

The balls on Prigozhin to even attempt something like this.

Watching your men die by the thousands would drive anyone mad.

 

[do.ob]

If this does go to an all out assault for Moscow, it stands to reason that no troops will be brought in from the Ukrainian battlefield, that'd take too long to get any troops there.

Meanwhile attacks are still continuing in Ukraine.

So... where do you think the Wagner soldiers came from?

 

[calodo2003]

Imagine a private military contractor staging a coup in the US. This is unheard of.

If Blackwater had been left to its own devices, we could have seen such an event in the states.

 

[Scandi Red]

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Public flight tracking of war-mongering state leaders fleeing... It feels so surreal to me.

 

[Zehner]

Watching your men die by the thousands would drive anyone mad.

If he really held back ammo to plan for this coup he willingly sacrificed them for his political ambitions. Maybe he took this decision because he witnessed the pointlessness of thr invasion but still

 

[Smithy89]

The balls on Prigozhin to even attempt something like this.

He's sick of his men getting slapped all over Ukraine because of Putin.

 

[calodo2003]

Can't believe people are trying to portray this as a good thing.

More war, more civilians at risk, more bloodshed, and if anything an elongation to the current war in respect that we now have a war within a war.

This is without doubt helping the Ukranians, full stop. That's why it is being portrayed as a positive vis à vis the current war.

 

[The Firestarter]

He's sick of his men getting slapped all over Ukraine because of Putin.

That's not the real reason. They tried to take control over the mercs from him. He knew that was it for him and decided to go with a bang.

 

[Raoul]

Corbyn will claim that NATO's aggressive expansion has lead to Russia emptying it's prisons to join mercenary militias...battle in Africa and Syria to gain combat experience...be directed to fight in Ukraine...decide to do a 180 and start fighting Putin's forces and storm Moscow.

He may even claim it's part of some global conspiracy run by...ah yes...well lets just say global corporate forces.

Spare a thought for Mearshimer as well.

 

[Sir Matt]

Spare a thought for Mearshimer as well.

Mearsheimer calls Chomsky just to verify they're still blaming all of this on American imperialism.

 

[Raoul]

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[Superden]

Public flight tracking of war-mongering state leaders fleeing... It feels so surreal to me.

it never did disappear from the radar btw...weve gone from tracking south american journeymen footballers flights to mad russian dictators...

 

[Pexbo]

So this is how it ends

 

[Raoul]

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[Charlie Foley]

Public flight tracking of war-mongering state leaders fleeing... It feels so surreal to me.

It’s mad. My friend is spamming me with these tweets so figured I’d stick one in here

 

[harms]

Now or never for the people of Russia. Feels like a potential turning point.

It's obviously not now or never since it's not a ground-root uprising.

 

[Raoul]

Mearsheimer calls Chomsky just to verify they're still blaming all of this on American imperialism.

Orban may be a bit more nervous today as well.

 

[RedSky]

It's obviously not now or never since it's not a ground-root uprising.

No, but it's Putin at by far his weakest. You won't ever get a better opportunity.

 

[Zen86]

Let’s say Prigozhin’s coup is successful and he takes control of the country, would he be any better than Putin or worse? Guessing it’s the latter, based on his track record of brutalism, warmongering, and propaganda?

 

[Dve]

Hope civil air traffic has learned from past and takes a big loop around western Russia.

It's a while since any air traffic was crossing Russia. When I went to Japan last summer, we flew over the North Pole.

 

[buchansleftleg]

it never did disappear from the radar btw...weve gone from tracking south american journeymen footballers flights to mad russian dictators...

I've a feeling Putin won't pass the medical!

 

[unchanged_lineup]

No, but it's Putin at by far his weakest. You won't ever get a better opportunity.

Unless he's immortal, there'll be a pretty good chance when he's dead I reckon.

 

[Carolina Red]

Spare a thought for Mearshimer as well.

And the geopolitics thread

 

[Raoul]

It's obviously not now or never since it's not a ground-root uprising.

Any word on whether Twitter reports of some army units defecting to Wagner are accurate ? Would be an ominous sign for Putin if true.

 

[Don't Kill Bill]

Bad day for the Russia can go on with the war indefinately brigade.

 

[Sir Matt]

Let’s say Prigozhin’s coup is successful and he takes control of the country, would he be any better than Putin or worse? Guessing it’s the latter, based on his track record of brutalism, warmongering, and propaganda?

He would not have the level of control that Putin has, and there would be a significant amount of resistance and in-fighting among the oligarchs. I think the most likely outcome would be a fairly substantial period of instability in Russian leadership. Putin has intentionally prevented anyone from rising to a level that could challenge or replace him. All of this would be good for Ukraine since the military efforts would inevitably be in chaos (again, because Putin has intentionally weakened the military to prevent any challenges from them).