Russian invasion of Ukraine | Fewer tweets, more discussion

stevoc

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True, the video was filmed yesterday. We get the info one day later. Today they could be further south already. Staromaiorsk is pretty vulnerable from three sides right now. It should be next.

So much for Russia's unity :lol:
Margarita Simonyan asks why Russia needs anyway the Ukrainian oblast
All it took was 18 months of war, over 100,000 Russians dead, their economy in the toilet and their country a terrorist state for her to start asking herself what the feck they're doing in Ukraine.
 

Krakenzero

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Huge if true. It seems as the UA is slowly but surely increasing the heat in multiple fronts without specifically targeting one, which (if done right) could make the RA retreat from multiple fronts at the same time without giving them much options to reinforce one or the other. Let's hope good news keep coming.

PS: Maybe the thread title should go back yo focus on Ukraine, as Prigozhin sack/window watch feels like a sideshow now.
 
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The Firestarter

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Feels more like a Psy-Op against Ukraine so that they consider removing some southern and eastern front line troops to protect the north, which would of course diminish the counteroffensive.
I am sure Ukraine has plenty of reserve in that area already.
 

Raoul

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I am sure Ukraine has plenty of reserve in that area already.
I'm sure they have troops in the north, but not to deal with a Wagner offensive on Kiev. They would need some reinforcements to offset the fact that they're not fighting conventional Russian army units, but rather hardened fighters who are better equipped. What these guys are up to in Belarus will no doubt be monitored.
 

The Firestarter

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I'm sure they have troops in the north, but not to deal with a Wagner offensive on Kiev. They would need some reinforcements to offset the fact that they're not fighting conventional Russian army units, but rather hardened fighters who are better equipped. What these guys are up to in Belarus will no doubt be monitored.
They failed with much larger force last years Feb. Sure they are better trained, but not invisible to shrapnel. I am sure if they attempted something like saturday, they'll get obliterated without the necessity to deploy a larger force for it.
 

Raoul

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If this is legit then Prigozhin is still messaging that he was correct in what he did, which may further annoy Putin and his inner circle goons. More ominously, it would suggest Prigozhin hasn't in any way been muzzled and can continue fomenting whatever he wants.
 

Ragnar123

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Prigozhin positions himself clearly as Putin's successor. His Wagners showed strength and the MoD's weakness, many Russian people love strength, so they sided with him and that gave him the certainty that he has definetly a chance in the future to take the power in Russia. This will continue to be interesting because Putin will definetly try to kill him and Lukashenko will be in the middle of it. Both men will force pressure on him and it will be interesting to see who he'll sell out. A mafia power struggle awaits Russia in the forseeable future.

And Prigozhin's threat could be the reason why Putin decides to keep Shoigu and Gerasimov. They are both weak and would never try to overthrow him and secondly, if he gets rid of them, he only strengthens Prigozhin's position by accepting his demands.
 

The Firestarter

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Prigozhin positions himself clearly as Putin's successor. His Wagners showed strength and the MoD's weakness, many Russian people love strength, so they sided with him and that gave him the certainty that he has definetly a chance in the future to take the power in Russia. This will continue to be interesting because Putin will definetly try to kill him and Lukashenko will be in the middle of it. Both men will force pressure on him and it will be interesting to see who he'll sell out. A mafia power struggle awaits Russia in the forseeable future.

And Prigozhin's threat could be the reason why Putin decides to keep Shoigu and Gerasimov. They are both weak and would never try to overthrow him and secondly, if he gets rid of them, he only strengthens Prigozhin's position by accepting his demands.
"most promising politician"
 

Raoul

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Prigozhin positions himself clearly as Putin's successor. His Wagners showed strength and the MoD's weakness, many Russian people love strength, so they sided with him and that gave him the certainty that he has definetly a chance in the future to take the power in Russia. This will continue to be interesting because Putin will definetly try to kill him and Lukashenko will be in the middle of it. Both men will force pressure on him and it will be interesting to see who he'll sell out. A mafia power struggle awaits Russia in the forseeable future.

And Prigozhin's threat could be the reason why Putin decides to keep Shoigu and Gerasimov. They are both weak and would never try to overthrow him and secondly, if he gets rid of them, he only strengthens Prigozhin's position by accepting his demands.
Agreed. If Putin is planning on killing him, he may want to first gradually disassemble Wagner as they would surely revolt if something happened to Prigozhin. Plus Putin desperately needs Wagner to keep fighting in Ukraine to avoid further loses, so it may be more complicated than previously thought.
 

stefan92

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Prigozhin might be Lukashenko's best ever chance to finally get rid of Putin. I really wonder if he will try to make Wagner his useful army to be able to withstand Putin.
 

The Firestarter

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Prigozhin might be Lukashenko's best ever chance to finally get rid of Putin. I really wonder if he will try to make Wagner his useful army to be able to withstand Putin.
Why do you think he wants rid of Putin? If it wasn't for him he would have been an ex dictator by now, probably drinking vodka with Yanukovich.
 

MTF

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I'm sure they have troops in the north, but not to deal with a Wagner offensive on Kiev. They would need some reinforcements to offset the fact that they're not fighting conventional Russian army units, but rather hardened fighters who are better equipped. What these guys are up to in Belarus will no doubt be monitored.
Are they, though? I thought their force had mostly been augmented by prisoners. They rely pretty much entirely on the Russian MoD for equipment, why would they be getting first dibs over other units?
 

Raoul

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Are they, though? I thought their force had mostly been augmented by prisoners. They rely pretty much entirely on the Russian MoD for equipment, why would they be getting first dibs over other units?
Augmented by yes, but their core fighters are still largely in place. The people who rolled into Rostov to an amicable reception by the locals were definitely not prisoners.