I'll be honest, I don't really get the attempt to analyze it. It just looks like a conspiracy crank Vivek supporter.
2024 U.S. Elections | Trump wins
- Thread starter Raoul
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I'll be honest, I don't really get the attempt to analyze it. It just looks like a conspiracy crank Vivek supporter.
Desperate times for Team Butthead. Iowa Caucus only week away and he's still floundering in low single digits.
It's the range of Vivek's responses that interests me, vacillating from believing the 'FBI' guy completely to 'why do I have to put up with this cat?'
I reckon he's just humouring a voter and possibly he also thinks it makes him seem important and cool.
Current polling is consistently bad for Biden. Fecking hell!
What a system... "yeah that guy might have the most votes, but the loser might become president". 
What a system... "yeah that guy might have the most votes, but the loser might become president".
We've been living with it for centuries and it ain't going away anytime soon.
Longevity doesn't make something any less insane.
It is what it is. We get around it by making sure enough electoral college votes can be found relative to each state's population.
There is a strong suspicion that the polls are not credible.
Trump is leading Biden by 10 points in latest Michigan poll, yeah, that's not happening.
No one under 40 answers a call from a number they don't recognize.
Do you really think that polling companies, who live or die on the quality of their output, don’t ensure that respondents are a fair demographic sample? Lots of polling has a major online component these days as well.
Political parties theoretically live and die by the quality of their output. And yet they don't.
Why do you think the polls have been so wrong for years now?
"Sampling methods
Pew has documented that telephone response rates have fallen below 9% which is not considered close to valid measurement in any social science fields. Online surveying can be more problematic as there there is no national list of email addresses from which people could be sampled. Thus there is no systematic way to collect a traditional probability sample of the general population relying the internet."
https://fortune.com/2022/11/16/poll...atistical-sophistry-accuracy-sonnenfeld-tian/
surely not, But I would rather prefer that this statistical error is in my favour than against because it might indicate that is more favourable for Trump
What is the evidence that they've "been wrong for years"?
Polling is reasonably accurate actually.
The shoes 
It's really just Biden that's polling bad, dems are polling well in the senate, and are favored to take back the house.
If that's accurate, we are looking at an incredible high rate of dems who will vote downballot, but leave presidential ticket blank.
That seems a bit silly, but maybe everyone really hates Biden that much for some reason.
If that's accurate, we are looking at an incredible high rate of dems who will vote downballot, but leave presidential ticket blank.
That seems a bit silly, but maybe everyone really hates Biden that much for some reason.
https://politicalwire.com/2023/12/11/ohio-gop-senate-primary-tightens/
Moreno could win the primaries, Brown has polled best against Moreno, so not bad news for him.
Moreno could win the primaries, Brown has polled best against Moreno, so not bad news for him.
The "red wave" was predicted by pundits and politicians, not polls.
It was predicted by polls, though someone claims the best polls have been accurate.
Here's the other article I mentioned that goes into a lot of detail.
https://fortune.com/2022/11/16/poll...atistical-sophistry-accuracy-sonnenfeld-tian/
I wouldn't be surprised if the problem is media sources using bad polls for headlines because they will draw more clicks, like "Trump leading".
The claims of the red wave were pretty ubiquitous, I don't recall seeing articles rebuking it beforehand. However I won't claim to pay the closest attention, to be able to say if that's a fair representation of reality.
I scanned the Fortune article but it seems to say something different than the Rutgers article. I don't know the answer either but I do remember reading an article a while back that said that non-partisan polls were reasonably accurate.
Such a bad take. Gerrymandering is wrong, I don't care who does it.
Republicans are welcome to work with dems to put a stop to Gerrymandering, but they wont though.
About polling and red wave etc
I follow 2 micro-celebs on twitter who spend all day looking at polls and special elections etc. Both of them predicted the red wave wouldn't happen and Dems would keep the senate. Both called out BS polling for the midterms, 538's use of it in their averages, and noted that the results from special elections and the actual reputable polling was never great for the GOP.
One of them is in total "polls are fake" mode - the crosstabs are totally wrong, there is nothing to worry about for Biden. The other is the opposite - Biden is insanely weak, current polls correctly reflect that, and Dems need to replace him with someone younger.
I follow 2 micro-celebs on twitter who spend all day looking at polls and special elections etc. Both of them predicted the red wave wouldn't happen and Dems would keep the senate. Both called out BS polling for the midterms, 538's use of it in their averages, and noted that the results from special elections and the actual reputable polling was never great for the GOP.
One of them is in total "polls are fake" mode - the crosstabs are totally wrong, there is nothing to worry about for Biden. The other is the opposite - Biden is insanely weak, current polls correctly reflect that, and Dems need to replace him with someone younger.
But Biden.....
Biden isn't perfect and as a centrist we all should have known, especially on immigration he wouldn't please the left. The same could be said for the Israel Palestinian catastrophe.
However, despite the fact he is clearly suffering from age/and or dementia he's not a fecking moron. He has always underestood world politics and as his recent comments on Russia/Ukraine show, he's still aware enough to see the issues the Republicans are causing and the benefits of fighting a proxy war versus the global issues coming from a Russia win.
Trump however just wants to please people in power. He looks up to Kim and wants his respect because he trusts him. He's a fecking moron. A clueless narcissist with absolutely no idea. He shouldn't be allowed anywhere near crayons let alone nuclear discussions with a rogue state and a lunatic leader.
Neither should be in the running and as bad as Biden can be, Trump would be unimaginably worse. Especially with a final term revenge agenda.
Biden agree with Trump on immigration and he is helping a genocide in Gaza. Have no idea what shit you libs smoke but it must be insane stuff.
I said he's pissing the left off with his stance on immigration and Israel/Palestine.
I have no idea what you're smoking but it must be insane stuff too. For the record, I don't smoke and think Bidens policy and recent speaches on immigration have been vile and inhumane. His support of Israel is inexcusable too. However, I stand by my comments that Trump would be exponentially worse. And also that neither should be in the running.
Agreed. Gerrymandering is a ridiculous concept and hopelessly anti-democratic.
worse?! What’s that based on. There’s a strong argument for his initial 4 years being much stronger than the shower of shit Biden has come up with.
your comments about him being near crayons/nuclear discussions comes across somewhat lazy. We were told this prior to his 1st election…a lunatic in the white house. In fact it was the opposite. There was nowhere near the amount of conflict we are seeing at the minute. That could be interpreted as a testament to what he did/prevented/didn’t start
He’s not the saviour some might suggest, but my god he would resolve a lot of ‘issues’ The border would be shut overnight…and that, I imagine, gets a significant percentage of Americans onboard immediately.
I don’t disagree that neither should be running. Biden is a laughing stock. An absolute embarrassment.