2024 U.S. Elections
- Thread starter Raoul
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I think it's very easy to say things like 'both choices are evil' and be all high and mighty about how clear and easy the decisions should be, and that Biden is clearly making the wrong ones. For me, the fundamental problem is not Biden, but what has happened to the American voters.
Look at immigration, widely being put number 1 on the voters' concern lists at the moment. It's up 10x from a few years ago at certain borders. The liberals who have historically been pro-immigration are suddenly changing their minds. The republicans hate immigration with a Fox-fuelled burning fire. So what does Biden and the Dems do? Get a bi-partisan senate committee together and hash out a plan that's not perfect, but can pass the senate and Biden will sign it, that at least provides some alleviation of the issue. What happens next? The house crazies not only refuse to sign the thing or even vote on it, but also randomly impeach the immigration lead, and hang their own senator who drafted the bill out to dry.
So it's very easy to say 'what a c*ck, Biden can't even do anything about immigration', because the US political system is being held captive by the insane. Do you not remember the 20 odd votes for the majority GOP to even pick a speaker?
Then Gaza. Okay, here's my thought experiment: Biden holds a press conference saying the US supports a ceasefire, and that no additional funding will be sent to Israel til it is in place. What happens next? Firstly he gets a huge hit from both sides on not supporting our allies in the middle east. The media cycle will suddenyl become extremely pro-Jewish, and countless clips of October 7th will re-emerge. Fine. Then what? You think Netanyahu and this cabinet - who are only in power as long as this conflict goes on - are going to stop? This is existential for Netanyahu. When he leaves power, he will likely go to jail. This is also a one time opportunity for the most right-wing Israelis, they'll never get a shot at stealing that land again.
So when the bombs keep falling after Biden has demanded a ceasefire, then what? Israel has shown it will stand up to the US. The US has demonstrated not only is not in step with its key ally, but also can't influence it. Biden will of course also be attacked for this, and how old and weak he is, whereas Trump is virile and powerful and gets things done.
So the good news is Biden will have passed the purity test, and be on the right side of history with his comments. The downside is it makes it even more likely Trump will be hte one negotiating Gazan rights next year.
It's just not as simple as people portray.
Look at immigration, widely being put number 1 on the voters' concern lists at the moment. It's up 10x from a few years ago at certain borders. The liberals who have historically been pro-immigration are suddenly changing their minds. The republicans hate immigration with a Fox-fuelled burning fire. So what does Biden and the Dems do? Get a bi-partisan senate committee together and hash out a plan that's not perfect, but can pass the senate and Biden will sign it, that at least provides some alleviation of the issue. What happens next? The house crazies not only refuse to sign the thing or even vote on it, but also randomly impeach the immigration lead, and hang their own senator who drafted the bill out to dry.
So it's very easy to say 'what a c*ck, Biden can't even do anything about immigration', because the US political system is being held captive by the insane. Do you not remember the 20 odd votes for the majority GOP to even pick a speaker?
Then Gaza. Okay, here's my thought experiment: Biden holds a press conference saying the US supports a ceasefire, and that no additional funding will be sent to Israel til it is in place. What happens next? Firstly he gets a huge hit from both sides on not supporting our allies in the middle east. The media cycle will suddenyl become extremely pro-Jewish, and countless clips of October 7th will re-emerge. Fine. Then what? You think Netanyahu and this cabinet - who are only in power as long as this conflict goes on - are going to stop? This is existential for Netanyahu. When he leaves power, he will likely go to jail. This is also a one time opportunity for the most right-wing Israelis, they'll never get a shot at stealing that land again.
So when the bombs keep falling after Biden has demanded a ceasefire, then what? Israel has shown it will stand up to the US. The US has demonstrated not only is not in step with its key ally, but also can't influence it. Biden will of course also be attacked for this, and how old and weak he is, whereas Trump is virile and powerful and gets things done.
So the good news is Biden will have passed the purity test, and be on the right side of history with his comments. The downside is it makes it even more likely Trump will be hte one negotiating Gazan rights next year.
It's just not as simple as people portray.
I think in a traditional 'thought experiment', people have to agree with your premises. This just seems like a long-winded way of slipping in a bunch of premises that lots of people disagree with in the first place, and as such is not very effective.
1. This presupposes that Biden would be opposed to the kind of deal that Trump-Bibi would come up with. We have no indication of that, given his lifelong staunch support for Israel including explicit decades-old support for murdering civilians, which has been linked to repeatedly here and never acknowledged by his supporters.
2. The other component of this is that the electoral damage to him calling for a ceasefire will hand the election to Trump...while this whole discussion is in the context of defections of leftist or Arab voters costing him the election. This is politics!!!! You have multiple bases of support, you alienate one (not with some superficial thing but with a genocide!) and you shore up the other (suburban, conservative Dems, and Jewish voters). This is in fact the core of grown-up politics! It's a bargain Biden should be happy to make, both for his personal rapport with Zionism, and for his electoral chances - there are far more suburban voters than there are leftists. But ... these bargains indeed mean losing some support - which you acknowledged right there in your alternative scenario. You don't seem to have any or issue understanding the motives of those who would abandon Biden for a leftward turn on this. Certainly you can see the inverse is also true???
I think the counterargument is that these voters can vote for Trump if they want a different option re: Israel, whereas Muslims don't have that choice.
The issue with that argument is that when many (most?) liberals make it, they don't sound concerned for what would happen to Muslims. They just sound annoyed that they don't get these votes by default.
It is a general thing during the Trump years: hoping that he is so bad that he makes you the default option. Just like when people thought Clinton would sweep in 2016 because Latinos were gonna turn out in large numbers for her due to Trump being so bad for them. Political laziness.
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The problem with this 'thought experiment' is that it ignores all the times in the past the USA has actively decided to intervene to pressurise Israel to stop. This isn't some ridiculous hypothetical like Fiji forcing China to stop threatening Taiwan. This instead is a real life situation, which has happened within our lifetimes.
Your thought process here is essentially that Netanyahu is Netanyahu so what can Biden really do? May as well pay homage to protecting some civilian lives, while throwing doubt on the numbers killed, parroting talking points without evidence and bypassing congress multiple times to sell more weapons to Israel.
He isn't doing the bare minimum to avoid electoral issues, he is an avid and enthusiastic participant in what is happening right now. Let's not pretend otherwise.
I'm also not personally a single issue voter. In fairness, most people aren't until its something so important to them. I don't even blame voters in the USA who aren't that close to this issue for not caring as much, particularly when Trump provides such a threatening spectre for what might be to come. But I find the patronisation of those who do care so much about it ridiculous. If the shoe was on the other foot and Jews were being massacred in this way, I have no doubt that many Jews would turn into single issue voters and decide to not vote for a candidate actively selling weapons being used to murder their people. And I wouldn't judge them for that either.
Same quote but,
A recent poll (AP-NORC, February 1st) showed that only 31% of U.S. adults approved of the U.S. handling of the conflict, including a minority of Democrats (46%). The same poll shows that 50% of U.S. adults think Israel's response has gone too far, with 63% of Democrats, 52% of Independents, and even 33% of Republicans sharing that sentiment. Another poll from Quinipiac showed that 34% of voters and 53% of Democrats approve of Biden's handling of the Israel/Gaza conflict. An older poll (NYTIMES/Siena, December 19) that showed 33% approval of Biden's handling of the conflict, with 54% of Biden 2020 voters approving and 38% disapproving. Another poll (Economist/YouGov, January 21st) showed that 35% of U.S. registered voters, and 50% of 2020 Biden voters, thought that Israel was committing genocide. An earlier poll (Gallup, November 30) showed 50% approval of the Israel/Gaza war and 45% disapproval, with 63% disapproval among Democrats.
The numbers are not that hard to understand. Support for Israel has become a partisan issue. Israel is an increasingly right-wing country, with values that don't match the current Democratic party. Its long-serving Prime Minister was antagonistic to the previous Democratic president and openly sided with the Republican party. Before the Israel/Gaza war, net support for Israel vs. Palestinians was negative among Democratic voters (Gallup).
You have this issue that is legitimately divisive among the various groups that comprise the Democratic electorate. And what has the Biden administration done? Clearly and unequivocally siding with one position. This results in a good percentage of his supporters disagreeing with him. Meanwhile Republicans and conservatives, who are pro-Israeli, don't give a shit. They rate him even lower on his handling of the issue than Democrats.
The basic problem with defending Biden on political grounds is that he's not doing well politically on this issue!
A recent poll (AP-NORC, February 1st) showed that only 31% of U.S. adults approved of the U.S. handling of the conflict, including a minority of Democrats (46%). The same poll shows that 50% of U.S. adults think Israel's response has gone too far, with 63% of Democrats, 52% of Independents, and even 33% of Republicans sharing that sentiment. Another poll from Quinipiac showed that 34% of voters and 53% of Democrats approve of Biden's handling of the Israel/Gaza conflict. An older poll (NYTIMES/Siena, December 19) that showed 33% approval of Biden's handling of the conflict, with 54% of Biden 2020 voters approving and 38% disapproving. Another poll (Economist/YouGov, January 21st) showed that 35% of U.S. registered voters, and 50% of 2020 Biden voters, thought that Israel was committing genocide. An earlier poll (Gallup, November 30) showed 50% approval of the Israel/Gaza war and 45% disapproval, with 63% disapproval among Democrats.
The numbers are not that hard to understand. Support for Israel has become a partisan issue. Israel is an increasingly right-wing country, with values that don't match the current Democratic party. Its long-serving Prime Minister was antagonistic to the previous Democratic president and openly sided with the Republican party. Before the Israel/Gaza war, net support for Israel vs. Palestinians was negative among Democratic voters (Gallup).
You have this issue that is legitimately divisive among the various groups that comprise the Democratic electorate. And what has the Biden administration done? Clearly and unequivocally siding with one position. This results in a good percentage of his supporters disagreeing with him. Meanwhile Republicans and conservatives, who are pro-Israeli, don't give a shit. They rate him even lower on his handling of the issue than Democrats.
Being open minded enough to consider a possiblity that you personally disagree with is the foundation of intellectual debate.
I see nothing in Netanyahu's action or situation to suggest the US calling for a ceasefire will cause a ceasefire to happen. I honestly don't understand people that do. But you call for Biden to demand a ceasefire. What do you honestly think will happen if he does?
And wa-hey, you've done the thought experiment.
I've seen all of these as well. As have (I believe) smarter people than I, whose job it is to get Biden re-elected. I think the vast majority of the western world (obviously including myself) want a ceasefire, yesterday. That's why I painted the thought experiement, beecause it's the occams razor to me of why Biden isn't calling for one.
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Yup, they are more alike than they'd like to admit.A bit reminiscent of his predecessor
And that a lot of voters on both sides like to admit too.
So, Biden is winning about 97% of the votes in the South Carolina Primary. That’s how you win!
But he won't win the election that matters in SC, it's a Republican state
It's the kickstart that he needed for a first shot in his own campaign. The other two donkeys running in the Democratic primary can take a hike.
Emerson had Biden at 69% in SC a month ago, btw.
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Next poll will probably say Trump gets 40% of the black vote, and obviously the young vote as well, just because.
@Red in STL Of course he’s not going to win SC in November. The whole idea to trying to get some idea about how he’s going to do in the General Election. A victory like this is a good message.
Are you saying that Biden is being underestimated? Who would have thought?!
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Same poll has Trump tied with young voters, yeah, that's not happening.
It seems if you want to be seen as a competent and effective president the answer is don’t become the president.
Why not?
Because GOP gets crushed with young voters every election?
Also, pollsters have a bad track record with polling young people in particular.
I don’t see why this can’t change, at least somewhat. Young people utilise social media the most and can easily be targeted by disinformation. They are also heavily emotionalised by the situation in Gaza and many seem extremely unhappy with Biden.
They are also the most prepared to surf through these disinformation and are overwhelmingly more affected by the decision to overturn Roe vs. Wade, which Trump attributes to himself.
GOP offers them literally nothing, so it only changes with young voters staying home, which can happen, but it will not be because GOP convinces them to vote for them.
Fair point about Gaza, that could very well drop turnout for dems though.
Also, independent numbers are odd, Trump has struggled with them in actual election results, so i'll take it with a pinch of salt that he is supposedly crushing Biden with that group.
The coalition on the left is filled with single agenda voters and as HTG correctly mentioned, they are easily prone to get targeted by disinformation and agendas.
I also don't think they can easily be made to vote for Trump if they didn't already have some sort of sympathies for him. But as you said, they might stay home. I actually think quite a few of them will.
Do young voters actually come out to vote anyway? I mean, I read in 2022 that they have come out a bit more than usual in the past 2–3 elections. They are not exactly getting to the point that they are becoming a reliable group for any party.
Young people view, climate change and gun control as the 2 of their biggest issues of concern, the GOP offer zero there
What coalition? We're talking about a single party. What's the evidence of what you suggest? If anything we've seen a trend in the opposite direction as every election post Roe vs. Wade have seen both young turnout increasing and Dem candidates overperforming.
In my experience young people that grew with social media are considerably better at recognising and avoiding social media disinformation campaigns than us oldies.
They have been brainwashed into thinking the Democrats are enabling genocide. And some of have gotten pulled into anti Jewish conspiracy theories rabbit holes.
Brainwashed by the all-powerful anti Jewish media.
Don't underestimate TikTok.
That's not particularly meaningful given that half of eligible black voters live in only 8 states, only two of which could be considered swing states. Might be helpful in GA or NC though. Who knows.
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Why Wall Street Won’t Stop Trump
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2024/02/capital-loves-trump/677317/
The black vote is very important also in WI, MI and PA. The democrat needs a strong support by black voters to win. It’s not a sufficient condition, but it may be a necessary one.