Matheus Cunha £62.5m release clause | Not a striker

Vidooq said:
At one point, we were one of the teams with the most created big chances, but with probably the worst conversion. Which means we are creating chances. Even if he is underperforming his XG's or comes down to his normal XG, he will still score a lot for us.
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Sadly we are 13th for that this season, one place ahead of Wolves and 13th last season.
 
Orange Tree said:
We need a dribbler in the middle of the park and he will provide just that. The one question mark is his temperament.

Oh and of course the quoted release clause and possibly paying higher to pay in installments. It's fine if we have CL, but if not, there won't be much money left for a top striker, which I think should be priority #1.

Or maybe he will play as striker. I think he can, like Martial did.
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I think Delap is our number 1 ST target unfortunately. He ain’t good enough. I hope we win the Europa and can target Osimhen. We need a ST to take us to the next level. We should not be starting a 21 year old upfront ever. No other top team in Europe plays a young lad up front
 
Zumbi said:
I don’t have time to start going through years worth of old XG stats, but there are definitely examples of players hitting their scoring prime right around Cunha’s age, and becoming consistently high scorers after not scoring anywhere near as much in their early twenties. Salah is a prime example of that.

So yes, whether this is a hot streak or part of his ongoing development is speculation - none of us have a crystal ball. That’s why transfers are always a risk, whatever the “evidence” people argue over.

It’s not outrageous to think that with the right recruitment elsewhere this summer, we can improve our attack significantly which results in the likes of Cunha getting into goal scoring positions more often than he does right now with Wolves, and therefore he wouldn’t need to outperform his xG by so much to still be an enormous upgrade on the likes of Zirkzee or Mainoo in that position. Again, that’s speculation, but it’s no more speculative than your assertion that the past two seasons are just a hot streak and he’s going to revert to 5-10 goals a season (which again, would still be an upgrade from our current situation).

Beyond that xG speculation, it’s abundantly clear from watching him that he offers lots of things we currently lack in our team and lack in our attack. So if Amorim thinks he has the right attributes to get our team scoring more goals then I am fine with us spending than sum on him.
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This is missing the point of the argument. It makes me suspect you don't actually understand what xG is and what it represents.

Lots of players suddenly start scoring more in their prime years, Salah is a GREAT example of this. You know why he's a GREAT example of this? Because his xG per 90 almost doubled and so his goals score doubled. Consistently. Because getting into goal scoring positions is a sustainable behaviour. Scoring bangers is not.

Cunha's xG hasn't actually improved, his conversion rate has. He's converting chances at double his xG. That is not sustainable over the long term for any player, not Son, not Messi, not Kane.
 
Gavinb33 said:
https://www.molineux.news/news/math...assing-statistic-wolves-fans-wont-be-shocked/

he has scored some outrageous goals this year for sure and looks a good player on the ball, his off the ball work is fecking rank though he barely makes an effort defensively makes Rashford look like prime Rooney
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Versus his peers he is 51st percentile for tackles, 76th percentile for interceptions, 49th percentile for blocks, 80th percentile for clearances.

For someone that isn’t making an effort, he’s actually been doing average to well on the defensive side of things.
 
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Licha-Vidic said:
That's on Wolves. Not on us. If Wolves were scammed or not it's for them to decide.

United should be wary from their own stand. We've seen Sancho, Joao Felix,Di Maria come to EPL and completely stink the place.
We should be extremely cautious.
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What does it mean by this "extremely cautious"? Finding player with no weakness at 60+m?

Or proposing to loan him for a season, see how he does before buying him?
 
Dion said:
The over-performance has been largely since the start of 2024, so it's a year and a half. And yes, players in bad teams can go on hot streaks, he literally has 14 goals from an xG of 7 this year. There's not really an arguable case against this being a sustainable rate.
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The proof that he's a goalscorer at the level he's been scoring at is that he's been doing so for 2 seasons in the most competitive league in the world.

The fact that he's scoring more than expected in a poor side that doesn't create many chances is a good thing, not a bad thing.
 
Dion said:
This is missing the point of the argument. It makes me suspect you don't actually understand what xG is and what it represents.

Lots of players suddenly start scoring more in their prime years, Salah is a GREAT example of this. You know why he's a GREAT example of this? Because his xG per 90 almost doubled and so his goals score doubled. Consistently. Because getting into goal scoring positions is a sustainable behaviour. Scoring bangers is not.

Cunha's xG hasn't actually improved, his conversion rate has. He's converting chances at double his xG. That is not sustainable over the long term for any player, not Son, not Messi, not Kane.
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Not at all - I just look at xG conversion as one of many, many relevant variables, and not an overarching variable that should solely determine transfer policy.

Cunha very obviously has the skills and attributes to improve our attack significantly, which is all I care about.

Try watching some football instead of hitching your horse to one specific statistical metric. You might enjoy it more.
 
Zumbi said:
I don’t have time to start going through years worth of old XG stats, but there are definitely examples of players hitting their scoring prime right around Cunha’s age, and becoming consistently high scorers after not scoring anywhere near as much in their early twenties. Salah is a prime example of that.

So yes, whether this is a hot streak or part of his ongoing development is speculation - none of us have a crystal ball. That’s why transfers are always a risk, whatever the “evidence” people argue over.

It’s not outrageous to think that with the right recruitment elsewhere this summer, we can improve our attack significantly which results in the likes of Cunha getting into goal scoring positions more often than he does right now with Wolves, and therefore he wouldn’t need to outperform his xG by so much to still be an enormous upgrade on the likes of Zirkzee or Mainoo in that position. Again, that’s speculation, but it’s no more speculative than your assertion that the past two seasons are just a hot streak and he’s going to revert to 5-10 goals a season (which again, would still be an upgrade from our current situation).

Beyond that xG speculation, it’s abundantly clear from watching him that he offers lots of things we currently lack in our team and lack in our attack. So if Amorim thinks he has the right attributes to get our team scoring more goals then I am fine with us spending than sum on him.
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Yes. And that much more typically comes about by their underlying stats increasing, not by them suddenly learning how to consistently overperform those underlying stats.

For example, if you look at Salah last 7 league seasons he averages out as slightly underperforming his non-penalty xG. It's only career-best hot finishing in his very first season at Liverpool that pushes him into the positive.

But it doesn't matter if you're only finishing to par if your underlying goal threat means "par" is better than a non-penalty goal every other game, and you're fit enough to be a minutes monster across 8 seasons.
 
Dion said:
I think the DonBecks post is a little bit disingenuous to be fair. The big criticism of Cunha is not that "he doesn't score enough goals", it's that "he's scoring enough goals because he's evidently on a completely unsustainable hot streak, which won't last".
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But he's not going to have to double his xG to hit 15 goals if he's in a better team. All you need to do is watch him play to know he will continue scoring goals.

His goals from outside the box weren't flukey, he places pretty much all of them which means he has a great shot/finish and will continue to score them similar to Son and Foden who always outperform their xG.

If he moves to a better team and his Baseline xG increases from 9 a season to around 13 he isn't going need to do anything crazy like this season to hit 15 league goals and it would be hard for him to not hit double figures.

He's only had two proper seasons in this league after only playing 900 mins in his debut season and he's hit 12 goals in 2400 mins and 14 in 2300 without penalties, if he plays 2800+ mins like the majority of attackers do he's almost guaranteed to get you 15+ league goals without taking a penalty.

He also takes all of their set pieces which shows how high a level his technical ability is.

Another thing that hasn't been mentioned much is that he's only missed 25 games in his whole career due to injury with the longest stint out being 7 games. He's perfect to takeover Garnacho's position and elevate us straight away.
 
Zumbi said:
Not at all - I just look at xG conversion as one of many, many relevant variables, and not an overarching variable that should solely determine transfer policy.

Cunha very obviously has the skills and attributes to improve our attack significantly, which is all I care about.

Try watching some football instead of hitching your horse to one specific statistical metric. You might enjoy it more.
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Nobody said it was the only factor, you just chose to jump in to a debate midway through and decide to either intentionally conflate or misunderstand two separate arguments.

The hot streak is in reference to his conversion rate, which is clearly unsustainable and frankly to argue otherwise is statistically illiterate.

The other discussion, which you've decided to conflate, either deliberately or otherwise, is the quality of chances he'll get at United vs Wolves. I've given my opinion on this argument elsewhere in the thread.

Whether he will get more chances at United is whatever, we can disagree on that all you like, but he simply won't convert those chances at anywhere near the same level he is now. It's statically impossible.
 
OverratedOpinion said:
The proof that he's a goalscorer at the level he's been scoring at is that he's been doing so for 2 seasons in the most competitive league in the world.

The fact that he's scoring more than expected in a poor side that doesn't create many chances is a good thing, not a bad thing.
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It's a good thing if you're Wolves this season. It's a bad thing if you're United expecting him to do it next season.
 
reddev3 said:
But he's not going to have to double his xG to hit 15 goals if he's in a better team. All you need to do is watch him play to know he will continue scoring goals.

His goals from outside the box weren't flukey, he places pretty much all of them which means he has a great shot/finish and will continue to score them similar to Son and Foden who always outperform their xG.

If he moves to a better team and his Baseline xG increases from 9 a season to around 13 he isn't going need to do anything crazy like this season to hit 15 league goals and it would be hard for him to not hit double figures.

He's only had two proper seasons in this league after only playing 900 mins in his debut season and he's hit 12 goals in 2400 mins and 14 in 2300 without penalties, if he plays 2800+ mins like the majority of attackers do he's almost guaranteed to get you 15+ league goals without taking a penalty.

He also takes all of their set pieces which shows how high a level his technical ability is.

Another thing that hasn't been mentioned much is that he's only missed 25 games in his whole career due to injury with the longest stint out being 7 games. He's perfect to takeover Garnacho's position and elevate us straight away.
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I mean, there's no argument on this. The rate has scoring them is.
 
Dion said:
It's a good thing if you're Wolves this season. It's a bad thing if you're United expecting him to do it next season.
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I disagree. It's good that a player has the skill and technique to score with limited chances.

I think the point you're trying to make is that he should be able to get himself more clear cut chances? He's playing for the fourth worst side in England. He also creates a lot of chances for teammates.
 
He will improve United for sure, not sure about his mentality, but it’s a bigger club so maybe he will have his heart in it.

Btw why no one is going for Mbembo? Having a great season as well.
 
I'll just be happy with a forward with a set of bollocks on him, a proper shithouse for once

hopefully he's good at shooting and stuff too
 
Why are we still targeting players with questionable attitudes? He’s already been sent off twice this season and had off the field issues. We just never learn our fecking lesson.

He’s obviously a talented player but there’s red flags waving all over this signing for me.
 
OverratedOpinion said:
I disagree. It's good that a player has the skill and technique to score with limited chances.

I think the point you're trying to make is that he should be able to get himself more clear cut chances? He's playing for the fourth worst side in England. He also creates a lot of chances for teammates.
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It's not a skill though, KdB doing it with a quarter of the success rate season after season is a skill. One player doing it over a short period of time is a hot streak.

And that's my issue, people are looking at his output and thinking '14 goals for Wolves, what could he do at United?!'... The issue is the form that turns 7xG worth of chances into 14 goals cannot last. So at best you're looking at a player who is probably going to be scoring 10 league goals a season, even with a 'United bump'. And then paying £60m for him? I just can't get on board with those figures for that player.
 
reddev3 said:
In that video he has 15 goals without a single penalty and I count 9 of them he created him self, he is a game changer and exactly what we need.

City paid 65 million for Marmoush who is a similar player at a similar age and from what I have seen this season in the league I think Cunha is the better player although they both look great.

Anybody worried about his xG should look at every other player in the bottom half of the table that isn't taking penalties. Lots moan about missing out on players like Kudus at 50 million and his xG is 6.3 with 3 goals and last year it was an xG of 5 with 8 goals. Looking at a players xG to determine whether they're good or not is ridiculous.
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Good post. Marmoush is a great example of what a game changer costs these days, and he wasn't a Brazilian international with 2.5 years of proven PL experience and lots of goals.

Cunha is cheap at this price IMO... speak to any Wolves fan and they are gutted at the low value of his clause. But we are also realistic enough to understand his head has been turned, and that we are a pathway club. His goals have also saved us this season. Remember, we sold Jota for £45m 5 years ago, and he was just a bit part PL player with us. We also don't have to sell him as our PSR concerns have been resolved, so dont know why we would sell him for a low-ball price that some on here are suggesting.

Tbh, he would have much tastier options than United IMO had he not had his meltdowns (I've mentioned the mitigating factors for these before). Arsenal had a deal agreed in January, but it seems only United, Forest and Newcastle are now interested.

One final point. He is the ultimate confidence player. He needs the love of the fans and his team mates (see our SM videos and you will see how much the other players adore him - wouldnt happen if he was a twat). Once he had this, he started converting the chances he had previously spooned. Probably the right club, but perhaps at the wrong time if the toxic culture at your club continues.
 
Dion said:
I mean, there's no argument on this. The rate has scoring them is.
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There clearly is an argument if you think those outside of the box goals were flukey.

Definition of a fluke "A fluke is an unexpected stroke of good luck" if the ball is going into the corner where he's clearly aiming and it ends up there that's not a fluke, that's skill. Hitting and hoping and have it flying into the top corner is a fluke which he doesn't seem to do when outside of the box.
 
Dion said:
It's not a skill though, KdB doing it with a quarter of the success rate season after season is a skill. One player doing it over a short period of time is a hot streak.

And that's my issue, people are looking at his output and thinking '14 goals for Wolves, what could he do at United?!'... The issue is the form that turns 7xG worth of chances into 14 goals cannot last. So at best you're looking at a player who is probably going to be scoring 10 league goals a season, even with a 'United bump'. And then paying £60m for him? I just can't get on board with those figures for that player.
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I don’t think it’s a safe assumption that he will revert to average xG. It’s probably correct if all players had the same ability and otherwise operated in the same circumstances.

Above average players will deliver above average xG over a longer terms (assuming that scoring goals and assists is the only metric you consider relevant).

By definition xG is calculated based on 1000s of shots under certain given circumstances. As it calculates an average that means there will be players above average and players below average.

So still comes back to whether you think a particular player is above average or below average and some people may think that xG is an indicator of that.
 
My % of time spent walking Opta stats during Covid would've been off the charts
 
Dion said:
It's not a skill though, KdB doing it with a quarter of the success rate season after season is a skill. One player doing it over a short period of time is a hot streak.

And that's my issue, people are looking at his output and thinking '14 goals for Wolves, what could he do at United?!'... The issue is the form that turns 7xG worth of chances into 14 goals cannot last. So at best you're looking at a player who is probably going to be scoring 10 league goals a season, even with a 'United bump'. And then paying £60m for him? I just can't get on board with those figures for that player.
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When I look at the goals he scores I see an awful lot of skill and technique.

But by the way, a player who could regularly score between 10 and 15 premier league goals, create a lot of chances, provide dribbling and clever touches to break the lines that we struggle with.

That's a very valuable player. How ever much us fans apply in value in our own heads is arbitrary but I can definitely see why the club like the look of this deal.

My concerns are his attitude.
 
Malone_Post said:
Why are we still targeting players with questionable attitudes? He’s already been sent off twice this season and had off the field issues. We just never learn our fecking lesson.

He’s obviously a talented player but there’s red flags waving all over this signing for me.
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Eh? He’s had only one red and four yellows so far this season, ten yellows and no reds in 2023/2024, and three yellows and no reds in 2022/2023. Stats like that aren’t a legitimate cause for concern when it comes to on field discipline.
 
Zumbi said:
Eh? He’s had only one red and four yellows so far this season, ten yellows and no reds in 2023/2024, and three reds and no yellows in 2022/2023. Stats like that aren’t a legitimate cause for concern when it comes to on field discipline.
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4 red cards in 3 years feels like a lot.
 
South America FC next season.

???
??? - ??? - Martinez
Antony - Casemiro - Ugarte - Leon
Mastantouno - Cunha - Garnacho​

What’s Romero up to these days..
 
reddev3 said:
There clearly is an argument if you think those outside of the box goals were flukey.

Definition of a fluke "A fluke is an unexpected stroke of good luck" if the ball is going into the corner where he's clearly aiming and it ends up there that's not a fluke, that's skill. Hitting and hoping and have it flying into the top corner is a fluke which he doesn't seem to do when outside of the box.
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I'd refer you to the part of the sentence where it says 'the rate he's scoring them is'.
 
OverratedOpinion said:
When I look at the goals he scores I see an awful lot of skill and technique.

But by the way, a player who could regularly score between 10 and 15 premier league goals, create a lot of chances, provide dribbling and clever touches to break the lines that we struggle with.

That's a very valuable player. How ever much us fans apply in value in our own heads is arbitrary but I can definitely see why the club like the look of this deal.

My concerns are his attitude.
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So do I, he's clearly a good Premier League player. But it's still unsustainable.

And you're correct I do think he'd improve us, I just don't think by enough to justify being so much of our budget.
Zeno said:
I don’t think it’s a safe assumption that he will revert to average xG. It’s probably correct if all players had the same ability and otherwise operated in the same circumstances.

Above average players will deliver above average xG over a longer terms (assuming that scoring goals and assists is the only metric you consider relevant).

By definition xG is calculated based on 1000s of shots under certain given circumstances. As it calculates an average that means there will be players above average and players below average.

So still comes back to whether you think a particular player is above average or below average and some people may think that xG is an indicator of that.
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The player has underperformed his xG every season bar the last two. I'm the last 18 months he's over performed that by 100%. Very good finishers usually are around the 10% mark, the absolute next is probably Son, who does so by 25%. Cunha this season is going at 4x the career average of the best we've measured.

The raw goal equivalent is a player scoring 2 hattricks in his first 2 games and assuming he's going to score league 100 goals that year. It's just impossible to do that long term.
 
I like the signing as long as we don’t expect him to be Bruno. We need to build a balanced squad that’s competitive and has complementary capabilities. This sets a baseline before we find our next Rooney or Bruno or Keane.

On that note, I hope the fee doesn’t handicap us. Six in and four out still leaves us with holes in the squad.
 
McLvnsMuse said:
I like the signing as long as we don’t expect him to be Bruno. We need to build a balanced squad that’s competitive and has complementary capabilities. This sets a baseline before we find our next Rooney or Bruno or Keane.

On that note, I hope the fee doesn’t handicap us. Six in and four out still leaves us with holes in the squad.
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Yeah agree. Get Cunha but find players that compliment him. That's the managers main job to me. Not necessarily identifying specific players but making it clear to the scouts what's needed to work well with Cunha.

Cherki wouldn't for instance work next to him.
 
Zumbi said:
We’re so bad we can swallow pretty any player on the planet alive. So what do we do? Not bother signing anyone? Resign ourselves to being a bottom table team? Exclusively take punts on cheaper players who have done less who are even bigger risks of coming good?

Every transfer ever is a risk. That is not a sound justification for not signing a player.

A player who has been performing at a consistently high level in the PL for several seasons, who perfectly suits our formation and plays in a position where we have no obvious fit, who brings key elements to our attack that we’re so clearly missing (pace, shooting, ability to carry the ball), are all factors which seem to mitigate the inherent risks substantially.
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I think we can agree talent is not an issue. Cunha talent is not in dispute.
The biggest worry is the price..
 
Isotope said:
What does it mean by this "extremely cautious"? Finding player with no weakness at 60+m?

Or proposing to loan him for a season, see how he does before buying him?
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What about buying players not above 50M like how city did years earlier.
We have been burnt massively on players recruitment fees, and it seems people are very forgetful.
Is Cunha a bigger talent than Pogba? No.
Was Pogba signing fee worth it? Now with hindsight?Probably not.
 
Licha-Vidic said:
I think we can agree talent is not an issue. Cunha talent is not in dispute.
The biggest worry is the price..
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The trouble is that even £30 million nowadays barely gets you more than a punt on a player with potential. £60 million ish on a PL proven player who already plays in the exact position we need and who has been performing at a high level for several seasons seems like one of the safer bets we can make.
 
Zumbi said:
Versus his peers he is 51st percentile for tackles, 76th percentile for interceptions, 49th percentile for blocks, 80th percentile for clearances.

For someone that isn’t making an effort, he’s actually been doing average to well on the defensive side of things.
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For the money those stats are quite poor really in my opinion, we'd need a lot more from our players in the 10 position
 
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