A draw would be bad in so much as where we are coming from, but its a good result in general. But I kind of agree, I feel we need to win it when you look at some of the permatations.
I think Villa and Spurs are vulnerable. I think 70-75 points is enough to get top 5. That means we need to get 32-37 points from 15 games (45). We can afford to drop 8 - 13 points depending on Villa/Spurs. We basically cant afford any slip ups againts any teams "we should beat".
Ideally we win at Villa, and the two league games before city. After city there is another bunch of winnable games but we really dont want to be any further off then we are now after the city game.
Spurs actually have a handy run of league games until End of April when they play Liverpool, Arsenal and City in a row. If we are anywhere near them by end of April we could pip them.
We will very likely drop points to City, Pool, Arsenal which really leaves only one more game. So for me we need to win at least 11 of our final 15 games. Its a big ask, but doable if we can find form.