Worth mentioning that the Oxford vaccine uses a viral vector, so pre-existing immunity to the vector would reduce efficacy. Which might cause different efficacy in different regions.
The vaccines | vaxxed boosted unvaxxed? New poll
- Thread starter Badunk
- Start date
You can't prove that. There is NO Certainty to anything. Some people have never got Flu vaccine and many other vaccines, so how can you say that, when there is NO Proof.
To be honest, it's the second dose thing that bothers me most. As you say, some people will have side-effects, some people may just not have liked the whole going to the vaccine car park, or push through a sports centre thing, or the travel to get there. People will sometimes make decisions based on comfort factors - including some of the people most vulnerable to covid disease.
Add to that, people with English as a second language, people with disordered lives or who have mental health issues and people who travel for work/education/caregiver/family reasons or even (if things start to look more normal) for leisure. The logistics of getting second doses, particularly if there's a timing window to ensure efficacy, could get really difficult. Small percentages perhaps, but enough to keep things tricky even with ones who initially want/can tolerate the vaccine.
Maybe all eggs in one basket is a bit strong, but in terms of order size and when the respective vaccines should be available to the UK:
Oxford - 100m - December/January
Pfizer - 40m - small number in December, then into 2021
Moderna - 5m - Spring 2021
Valneva - 60m - H2 2021
Novovax - 60m - mid 2021
Janssen - 60m - mid 2021
Sanofi - 60m - spring 2021
If for any reason the Oxford vaccine falls short you can see the UK might have a problem.
Has anything been detailed about it’s effectiveness in age-groups? Is it as effective with older people?
That makes sense. I suppose in time work could be done on using several vectors to reduce the chance of pre-existing immunity, and maybe testing individuals for immunity first to decide which version to give them. Trying to develop a viral vector that people couldn't develop immunity to might not be such a good idea though.
But potentially up to 90+% with a second shot.
Buy it twice - which still works out as cheaper than a single shot of any other vaccine - and you're looking at the go-to vaccine option for most.
That wouldn’t be too clever alright!But actually 90% with the regime that will be given once approved. Excellent news.
Isnt that potential criticism with the benefit of hindsight? You’d always assume that the majority of orders would have been placed on the domestically developed vaccine, that is of course from a timing perspective when eficacy rates were unknown.
Surely had we plumped for Pfizer, that would have been a stroke of luck rather than anything else...
I'm guessing they're reserving the moderna/pfizer vaccines for the elderly and most vulnerable, whereas the rest of us will be jabbed with the Oxford one. They'll have to justify ordering those 100million jabs somehow.
I wonder if people will kick up a fuss as to which vaccine they'll be getting - can see quite a few being displeased at being allocated the 'inferior' AZ/Oxford one.
I wonder if people will kick up a fuss as to which vaccine they'll be getting - can see quite a few being displeased at being allocated the 'inferior' AZ/Oxford one.
You can't always account for stupidity.
Well by the time most people are eligible for a shot they'd have a years worth of data to fall back on, bearing in mind testing started as early back as April. But I don't expect many ignorant people will take that into account and will assume the clock starts in December.
Most of those idiots will soon change their mind once the media spin changes to “X% of people REFUSING to take MIRACLE vaccine dying in hospitals”
Huh? I'm not sure you understand either the evidence nor statistical probability.
What does this even mean?
Some people that haven't taken the flu vaccine have died. Probably some people that have taken the flu vaccine have also died from flu. It's not as effective as these vaccines in that regard, after all. But we know they have died. We know people die from flu and covid. And we have a good understanding of the biological mechanisms that cause that process that repeats itself over and over again. It's not a kind of mysticism that an unusually large number of people are dying from a very similar set of symptoms that also align with testing positive for a specific protein that identifies covid. It's a virus that kills many and infects magnitudes more.
Too early to come to that conclusion. We don’t yet know which regime will be approved. It looks as though the 90% efficacy cohort has much lower patient numbers, which could be a problem when it comes to getting a license. They’ll be kicking themselves they didn’t go with that dose in the Phase III trial, that’s for sure.
Oxford vaccine result a little underwhelming?
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...eneca-covid-vaccine-everything-we-know-so-far
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2...eneca-covid-vaccine-everything-we-know-so-far
Some people will only take it if they know somebody who has received it and been ok - you could tell them that 2 million people have taken the vaccine with no side effects and that will have no impact until Doris down the road gets it and seems ok.
Why is 90% as stated for one half followed by a full dose underwhelming?
It isn't, but it might feel underwhelming if people just read some of the very misleading and frankly irresponsible headlines that some papers are leading with citing 70%
Oxford vaccine: How did they make it so quickly? https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55041371
I agree that they have royally cocked up the media release of these results, especially to a completely uneducated audience who have only been primed with the Pzier and Moderna results, with no understanding on what they mean.
My elderly mum who has been isolating since March just rang me up in a state of confusion, worried that she’s still be very vulnerable if she took Oxford vaccine and I had no meaningful reply to give.
Last edited:
Give very vulnerable or elderly people the Moderna one and give main population or those under 50, the 90% version of Oxford one?
Wasn't it a chimp virus though? How many people have pre-existing immunity to chimp cooties?
Surely Oxford are going to need more data from test cases of people receiving the dose levels that led to 90% efficacy? Perhaps they've messed up a bit by not doing more of that..
Twas indeed a chimp virus but possible there’s some cross-reactivity to similar human viruses.
Oh jeez, once the loons find out it's a chimp virus there's going to be more of them than ever. It's going to turn us all into chimpanzees I tell you, and you can't prove otherwise.
Yeah they do. Seems too preliminary at the moment to get excited about it being on a par with the other vaccines efficacy.
I don't think they messed up. I think it's one of the reasons why you have to trial things on thousands of people in real world situations.
I'm guessing the serology testing from Phase 1/2 wasn't clear cut enough to identify the correct dose. Hence taking both to trial. Certainly it suggests that the half/full pattern is as good as the full dose version. More data will arrive fairly quickly, this is just the first release from the review panel.
Someone needs to start sneakily putting up Planet of The Apes posters in GP waiting rooms.
Is it true that Moderna/Pfizer trials didn’t screen and test participants weekly like the Oxford trials meaning their data didn’t pick up asymptomatic cases? Suppose that works both ways though as the placebo group wouldn’t have been screened either.
The UK won't get the Moderna vaccine until April at the earliest. They hadn't actually ordered it until the results came out last week, then rushed through a small 5m order and are right at the back of the queue. It's Pfizer or bust for that particular cohort.
There's lots of problems with this framing though.
I believe that moderna have announced all of their 2020 doses will be given to the USA only. The cold chain required for a vaccine needing storage at - 80 Celsius is immense and I doubt easily scalable on a national level immediately, even for countries like the USA, Germany, UK etc.
I doubt most countries will be vaccinating more than their very high risk cohorts and health care workers in the next couple of months, especially with vaccines like the Pfizer one, which will need huge infrastructure.
You also say that the UK hadn't ordered the moderna until a few days ago... Which is exactly what the EU had done too. There's nothing particularly unique about that..
When exactly are novovax and the others releasing their vaccines, especially considering they haven't even released their phase 3 data yet? (I mean technically no company has properly yet I believe)?
Tweet
— Twitter API (@user) date
So if 20% of the UK population will have caught Covid by the end of the second wave, that would mean only another 50% would have to become immune for herd immunity to be reached.
If the AZ vaccine is 90% effective, around 56% of the never infected population would need to take the vaccine to take us up to 70% of the 'herd' being immune.
That's 37m people, or 74m doses. At £3 per pop, that's roughly what it'd cost to buy two Jadon Sanchos.
If the AZ vaccine is 90% effective, around 56% of the never infected population would need to take the vaccine to take us up to 70% of the 'herd' being immune.
That's 37m people, or 74m doses. At £3 per pop, that's roughly what it'd cost to buy two Jadon Sanchos.
From what I've read , that certainly seems to be the case, though I don't believe those companies have released their data yet so will wait to see what it says.
Puts a slight downer on the results for me personally but still very impressive nonetheless.
Tweet
— Twitter API (@user) date
So one Neymar, or 74m does of vaccine.
Either way, it's a lot of money to pay for a little prick.
Oxford/Boris have obviously chased the biggest profit opportunity rather than producing the very best vaccine.
The clinical trials, enrolling over 24,000 participants from diverse racial and geographical groups in the UK, Brazil and South Africa, will now continue to final analysis. Further trials are being conducted in the United States, Kenya, Japan and India and the trial team expect to have under 60,000 participants by the end of the year. These trials will provide regulators with further information about the efficacy and safety of the Oxford candidate vaccine, including its ability to both protect against and stop the transmission of COVID-19.
Tweet
— Twitter API (@user) date
The clinical trials, enrolling over 24,000 participants from diverse racial and geographical groups in the UK, Brazil and South Africa, will now continue to final analysis. Further trials are being conducted in the United States, Kenya, Japan and India and the trial team expect to have under 60,000 participants by the end of the year. These trials will provide regulators with further information about the efficacy and safety of the Oxford candidate vaccine, including its ability to both protect against and stop the transmission of COVID-19.
Last edited: