Sure.
But it is better than a random sample poll that keeps getting posted as Doomsday. It is actual people going out to vote. If actual voting data doesn't matter, polls of what people might do certainly don't matter.
Let me ask you though, do you really believe in polls showing Trump crushing it with independents or winning with young voters?
The youth elected Milei in Argentina.
A lot of these early numbers are going to change over time as voters actually grapple with the reality of whether they actually want to reelect Trump. Independents in particular, have left Trump since the insurrection, and he can't win the Presidency without them since the Republican base only make up about 25-28% of the overall voter population.
Has this ‘cartoonist/satirist’ never heard of abstaining?Muslims
Best ignored, I say!!!
I'm not sure polling numbers will change much, its been about 4 months of largely awful polls for dems, which is a fairly large period of time already.
Well, fear can be a good motivation for the Democrats and Dem-leaning Indies to come out and vote, which is what is needed. In that sense, they would just leave it as it is for now until they felt the situation was different. The past few elections pretty much indicated that it worked.
That's because a lot of people aren't taking the the election seriously yet, mainly because they're too busy with life. They don't fully get dialed into the election mindset until summer time when the conventions happen and the gravity of their political choices becomes palpable.
It's absolutely not better. This is South Carolina, in the 2016 Republican primary Trump got 32 % of the vote, while in 2020 they didn't even have a primary. Yet, even with incumbent advantage he was obviously a weaker candidate in 2020. Now, in 2024, he's polling at well above 50 %, and this also doesn't mean that he's a stronger candidate than in 2016.
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I think you are completely right on this. It doesn't make sense. But just to be the devils advocate. Could it be that maybe young people that voted democrats and independents in the last elections are disillusioned with Biden specially lately with the age decline perception and maybe Israel and is not that they will vote for Trump but either for Biden? and the ones that voted for trump with keep voting Trump because...they are still being nuts?
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No, but crosstabs have large margins of error, since the samples are small. It doesn't mean the entirety of the poll is wrong.
FiveThirtyEight said:
The explanation I've seen is that Biden is stronger with the more engaged voters that show up in midterms/special elections than with general election voters. It may be true, it may not be true.
According to NBC's exit polls, in 2020 election Biden had 65% support of the 18-24 demographic, 54% of the 25-29 demographic and 51% of the 30-39 demographic. Trump had 31%, 43%, and 46% in those demographics. If you average them out you get 57% Biden, 40% Trump.
I obviously hope it's not the case, but I would love to understand what it is about Trump that is attracting new, young voters. Outside of I guess new MAGA 'kids'.
Turnout and voter enthusiasm to actually vote will drive each of these.
Might be that Trump doesn't attract new young voters but that Biden attract less young voters than 2020. After all we are talking about percentages not absolute terms
So he will be awarding 17 extra billions to a fecking bad guy....like it make sense he said anything like that
He's hands are tied you know. He's just the president, he doesn't have that much power.
He's damned if does and damned if he doesn't, same applies to Trump, there's a reason this has been going on for decades
Polls seem to show americans want a ceasefire. Instead biden just sends more and more money and support. This is not a "hands tied" situation, this is ideological.
Agree, but if you give 17 billions to israel to continue the massacre, at least don't push the narrative that "he is not speaking to Netanyahu because what he is doing in Gaza" or last tweet calling him "bad fecking guy" because is not true. Is just a fecking lie. He is completely on board of what is happening in Gaza so own it and don't push lies in the media that he is against what is happening while his party is doing the opposite in congress/senate
No it's political and economical. If Palestine had any military, political or economical relevance this wouldn't be so clear cut for those with the power in the west. Look at all the warring going on in places like the African continent and large swaths of South America little attention has been given to while thousands are slaughtered in many of those places.
I guess if I was american I'd be in denial as well.
What about that is denial exactly.
Biden's ideology is clearly one of supporting israel, that seems pretty clear judging him by his history of clear support and his absolute inaction in the present, even refusing something as basic as a humanitarian ceasefire. In fact, he's doing the opposite, undermining humanitarian efforts.
Polls show most Americans want gun control but it isn't happening, same with Dobbs
Yeah but being criticized by trying to stop a genocide is a good thing. Being criticized by supporting is quite another.
So say Biden shuts off the money to Israel when demands for ceasefire are ignored, what do you think would happen?
You can't see things in isolation. Do you really think Biden would be able to leverage all the military and economic might of this country for things like that if there wasn't serious support for some of it? The power of the federal system extends far beyond the presidency. They are not kings. Even if it was ideological alone for Biden, there are many other interests at play. Many things happening now are the result of decades of actions before it.
House Dems seem to believe Biden can act differently. Are they dumb?
Why are you talking about "all the military and economic might of this country"? I'm talking about human decency basic stuff 101: don't support genocide. If this is somehow too complicated for a leader, than I guess he's a bad leader.
Israel would have less resources to commit their genocide and the UN would have a mandate to intervene.
And the likes of Iran would be rubbing their hands with glee, I'm fairly sure Putin would supply them with whatever they wants as well
Israel would prioritize their current genocidal war over their own safety in regards to iran? I somehow doubt it. More likely israel would back down.
There would be no ceasefire either way since the only thing that can trigger an immediate ceasefire is Hamas returning Israeli hostages (in exchange for Palestinian prisoners).
