Would like to agree with you on this one but for me it will be this in the tournament.
Tier 1: Germany, France England
Tier 2: Italy, Spain, Portugal
Tier 3: Netherlands, Belgium, Croatia
Unfortunately have to say I agree with you regarding the Ronaldo situation, and if it happens maybe I will have to look around and switch Portugal with one of the Tier 3 teams.
The final list comes Tuesday, but we have a gap in the GK (Diogo Costa don't gives me great vibes tbh) the fullbacks situation aren't as good as I hoped it would be after Qatar (Cancelo level has dropped off, Nuno Mendes spent most of the time injured, is Dalot reliable for the international level, Guerreiro barely plays, Semedo only ok and so on).
Then the CB situation is a hell of a problem, the only guy I can expect to be reliable is Dias (if he doesn't have his brainfart on the day) Pepe is 41, Inácio didn't finished that well the season from an individual point of view, and Antonio Silva had a terrible season IMO.
Think the midfield can be ok if Martinez trusts more Vitinha for an important role in this team and doesn't play him on stupid positions like he did recently on the left (seriously WTF) and then upfront will be a bad situation between starting Ronaldo, if he doesn't start well majority of the people who are fed up with him will ask for him to be dropped of the first 11, the other alternative Ramos isn't that reliable, Jota is injured, Felix 8 out of 10 is useless, Leão we never know what to expect from him on the day.
Overall the picture for me is this. To achieve something like reaching the last 8 we will need a fit Pepe, Diogo Costa to step up his level as a reliable international GK (at least for international tournaments, his CL was ok) Ruben Dias, Cancelo (can he at least defend for his life?) and Vitinha (seriously Martinez, stop messing around, you're not Guardiola).
If this 5 players click together, no physical problems, start well the competition maybe the rest of the team will follow and find their rythm during the group stage, finish first as they should be, face a reasonable team on the last 16 and with more or less difficulty reach the last 8, then it will depend on the level of the opponent they will face and if the team improved his level during the competition.
I have to say, if Fernando Santos wasn't so out of touch with reality our 2021 squad was better than current one ( the squad, not quality of football).
But if Martinez isn't able to reach the last 8 for me it's a huge failure, even with our current problems he can fix some issues, but the way he handles Ronaldo during the competition will tell a lot on who really is in charge of the team.
If we are knocked out on the last 16 or we have a crap group stage with unpopular players starting for us he won't have an easy life to stay.
Only tbf, I don't think the only problem in the team is Ronaldo, that's the most popular thing to say because he is controversial, already explained other issues, but the collective problems he brings to the team until 2020 he was able to shut up who pointed that out with goals, these days against better NT's and without the same athletic qualities he had 4 years ago I just don't see on him the capacity to do it.
