2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress

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InfiniteBoredom

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It's rare for a sitting President to lose an election. Trump is the exception. Biden will have a huge advantage from simply being the incumbent.
He will be 81 in 2024, far from a certainty he will run, and only need an unfortunate recession to tank the whole thing, ask Bush Snr.
 

sebsheep

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Great way to get people to keep watching them instead of changing. I assume most want to see the news break rather than finding out later.
I may have fallen into this trap. :nervous:
 

Kaos

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Demographic isn’t destiny. Especially when you just witnessed an election where the lunatics got more votes and outperformed with minorities relative to his 2016 performance.

In the short term, I actually see Dems having huge troubles in presidential contests. All of the Midwest states are trending red. Ohio and Iowa are lost causes, WI, MI, PA under 2% either way 2 elections running. Not a great look.
In response to this, I'd say the Republicans have equal concerns with the bible belt - Biden flipping Georgia is huge, Texas looks like its a matter of time before it also flips in the next cycle or two, Virginia seems to pretty much be a blue state these days, and Florida....well Florida might not even be a state in the future, not one thats above sea level that is. And then there's states like Arizona which are usually reliably red, but have also looked to flip blue.
 

InfiniteBoredom

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Networks are being real cowardly with their projections.

PA and GA should already be called. NV arguably too.
No network will call PA when Biden is still behind, and GA when he’s up 1k with potential 10k to go, in these fraught time with the obese turtle flinging accusations left right and center
 

UnrelatedPsuedo

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You got to be kidding, bbc is a Liberal left outlet that claims to be neutral
That’s the sales pitch. It’s rarely true.

The right wing voices brought on to provide ‘Balance’ are cooks. Farage et al.

The left wing voices are often criticised to a fault.

The big ticket BBC political voices are right wing.

The entertainment side skews massively liberal. Which is to be expected as it’s hard to find a Tory in the arts without looking at the owners. But whenever those voices go political, they get told off.

It’s complicated, but very clear if you take a step back.
 

adexkola

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I remember asking my teacher that question about Clinton in 2000.. Why would anyone want to be a VP after being a President was her answer..

I never looked it up to see if it was technically possible.. So this post, if correct, genuinely helps.. I will still refuse to look it up.
Taft became a Supreme Court justice after his presidency. But back then ex-presidents couldn't earn $1M per speech, so there ye go
 

Kaos

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If this moron has a rally this weekend, that’s just disgraceful
I fully expect the remainder of his sad presidential tenure to be filled with nothing but indulgent rallies. He's going to milk every last bit of attention he can get before he slips away into obscurity, or a jail cell.
 

Mike Smalling

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It's rare for a sitting President to lose an election. Trump is the exception. Biden will have a huge advantage from simply being the incumbent.
Biden won't run again, and the Democrats will have to run Kamala almost by default. It would not be a good look to run someone other than the VP. A lot can happen in 4 years of course, but I would be surprised if America elected a woman of colour in 2024. Biden will be a one-term president and I would guess the White House goes Republican again. Hopefully they manage to find someone who is not insane.
 

Siorac

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In response to this, I'd say the Republicans have equal concerns with the bible belt - Biden flipping Georgia is huge, Texas looks like its a matter of time before it also flips in the next cycle or two, Virginia seems to pretty much be a blue state these days, and Florida....well Florida might not even be a state in the future, not one thats above sea level that is. And then there's states like Arizona which are usually reliably red, but have also looked to flip blue.
If Austin continues to attract tech companies with tons of young, highly educated employees, Texas will turn. Trump's margin is less than 6% today, in an election where he did a lot better than expected overall. His advantage has been reduced in Texas compared to four years ago. The trend is clear.
 

Siorac

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Almost, it says elected twice. I think he could theoretically run as VP.
"...no person constitutionally ineligible to the office of President shall be eligible to that of Vice President of the United States."

Twelfth Amendment makes it explicit.
 

Kaos

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If Austin continues to attract tech companies with tons of young, highly educated employees, Texas will turn. Trump's margin is less than 6% today, in an election where he did a lot better than expected overall. His advantage has been reduced in Texas compared to four years ago. The trend is clear.
Texas becoming a blue state would be huge for the Dems - the 38 electoral college votes they'd garner would nullify any concerns they'd have with the midwest.
 

TheGame

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Biden won't run again, and the Democrats will have to run Kamala almost by default. It would not be a good look to run someone other than the VP. A lot can happen in 4 years of course, but I would be surprised if America elected a woman of colour in 2024. Biden will be a one-term president and I would guess the White House goes Republican again. Hopefully they manage to find someone who is not insane.
Electing a woman at all might be a start!
 

Brwned

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So what's the feeling now on how bad experts' pre-election predictions were, at this stage?



Clearly they underestimated the Republican vote in the "tossup states" but they look like calling the winners in every state, and on both sides the narrow winners were not quite so narrow in most cases.
 

GlastonSpur

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He will be 81 in 2024, far from a certainty he will run, and only need an unfortunate recession to tank the whole thing, ask Bush Snr.
Yes, and Trump will be 78 and he's in far worse physical shape than Biden. His mental and emotional "eccentricity" will only get worse from here on. In the circumstances, to choose a now-proven loser as their candidate in 4 years from now would be political suicide.
 

Gehrman

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Electing a woman at all might be a start!
Like Hilary? I wish politics would be more about policy than anything else. Our first Danish female PM was shit. Our current female one is quite good though.
 

InfiniteBoredom

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In response to this, I'd say the Republicans have equal concerns with the bible belt - Biden flipping Georgia is huge, Texas looks like its a matter of time before it also flips in the next cycle or two, Virginia seems to pretty much be a blue state these days, and Florida....well Florida might not even be a state in the future, not one thats above sea level that is. And then there's states like Arizona which are usually reliably red, but have also looked to flip blue.
They squeezed nearly every vote they could out of TX this cycle, lost by 6. Without TX, even giving AZ and GA to Dems, GOP starts with 277.

In the short term means 2-3 cycles. And by 3 it would be another round of redistricting. Assuming AZ and GA become semi-reliably blue (which is no guarantee, the margin are very slim and rely on recent Republican constituents), you still have to contest unfavourable ground trending red just to have a chance.
 

Kaos

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Like Hilary? I wish politics would be more about policy than anything else. Our first Danish female PM was shit. Our current female one is quite good though.
I mean I'd agree with your principle, but it is a little staggering that the leader of the free world is yet to elect a female premier.
 
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