2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress

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Red Dreams

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Yes it is lack of information, but it’s long-standing and won’t be changed easily. They have fixed ideas and it’s deeply embedded. Whilst everyone is so obsessed with their own wealth and themselves it will be a struggle. That’s why you are the only “civilised” country left (so to speak) with this pretty appalling health care system.

Btw I will be joining you if we don’t do well. Only fair to warn you. ;)
no arguments mate.

frustrating like heck.

United. I'm rather optimistic. Though if it goes tits up I wont be going after Ole.
It will be the kin Glazers.
 

Red Dreams

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There’s the obvious issue of voters not understanding the process of governance, and as a result the utter malice of the GOP.

Obama took office with a 1T+ deficit, he wanted a trillion stimulus package, only got 700bn and had to make cuts to social services to accommodate them, and got called a socialist (imagine that, a self-professed Tom Friedman fan). Then in 2014 after the mid term loss had to do a sequester deal with the GOP, slowing the economic recovery even further. When he left office, the deficit was down to 600bn.

The first thing the GOP did when they got in again? The Trump tax cut. And now the deficit has shot up again to 1T+, and the US isn’t even in a recession. If they win again, great, they would continue appointing judges and scale back on federal agencies, further entrenching them to continue wielding power, or obstruct effectively. If they lose, the next Dem president will be left with a shit show that will take years to clear up, and then people will be agitating for change again because their lives aren’t getting better.

The establishment Democrats are far from innocent in all this, of course, and someone like Biden who openly brags about getting along with Republicans will smooth things even more for them, but it’s still a dilemma that can’t be solved if the electorate don’t take a longer view on politics. The evangelicals, the Old South racists are far from content with the GOP, but they understand the long game and never compromised, even if they encounter setbacks along the way.
We are a pretty divided country culturally.

While personally I think that it can be enriching, the way we are brought up to think does not help us understand each other.
Lack of trust. Fear of losing our heritage.

Politicians exploit these.
 

InfiniteBoredom

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Biden already underwater favourability-wise with the electorate, 34/38 in the new NBC/WSJ poll. Started from 54/22.

Warren 31/32, Sanders 31/40.

Basically we are doomed. By the time November next year rolls around it will be for most people choosing between a shit and turd sandwich again.
 

Red Dreams

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Biden already underwater favourability-wise with the electorate, 34/38 in the new NBC/WSJ poll. Started from 54/22.

Warren 31/32, Sanders 31/40.

Basically we are doomed. By the time November next year rolls around it will be for most people choosing between a shit and turd sandwich again.

I really don't pay too much attention these National polls. tbf any of these polls.

The Early State trends will be worth following later on.

btw look at Trump's negative numbers.

He is in serious shit.

EDIT: If you are into polls ;)
 

Red Defence

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I really don't pay too much attention these National polls. tbf any of these polls.

The Early State trends will be worth following later on.

btw look at Trump's negative numbers.

He is in serious shit.

EDIT: If you are into polls ;)
Soon there will be no point in measuring possible outcomes of Dems candidates against Trump. It’ll be Dems against someone else.
 

InfiniteBoredom

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I really don't pay too much attention these National polls. tbf any of these polls.

The Early State trends will be worth following later on.

btw look at Trump's negative numbers.

He is in serious shit.

EDIT: If you are into polls ;)
Increased partisan polarisation is real, presidential candidates have gotten progressively less liked since forever.

Trump isn’t in serious shit, sure, only 40% of registered voters said they’d vote for him, but he still has 43% approval rating and 49% approval on handling of the economy, all the while his favourables are already rock bottom. If he manages to cut down the favourables of the Dem nominee by 10 pts over the next year, I wouldn’t bet against him getting 46/47% of the vote again, and then it’ll be too close to comfort.
 

berbatrick

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Biden already underwater favourability-wise with the electorate, 34/38 in the new NBC/WSJ poll. Started from 54/22.

Warren 31/32, Sanders 31/40.

Basically we are doomed. By the time November next year rolls around it will be for most people choosing between a shit and turd sandwich again.
Is this consistent in other polls? H2H still looks good for the Bs but this would be a worry.
 

Red Dreams

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Increased partisan polarisation is real, presidential candidates have gotten progressively less liked since forever.

Trump isn’t in serious shit, sure, only 40% of registered voters said they’d vote for him, but he still has 43% approval rating and 49% approval on handling of the economy, all the while his favourables are already rock bottom. If he manages to cut down the favourables of the Dem nominee by 10 pts over the next year, I wouldn’t bet against him getting 46/47% of the vote again, and then it’ll be too close to comfort.
One thing you can be sure of his supporters will crawl over broken glass to vote for him.
Will a Biden get that sort of enthusiasm?

That is what is scary.
 

Revan

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Bernie down, Warren up, which is to be expected. Unfortunately, Biden remains in a stable position. However, when Harris and Bernie* drop from the race, I would expect Warren to leapfrog Biden.

* Yes, I know that polls show that his voters have Biden as the second choice, but I think this might change, especially if he starts attacking Biden.
 

Raoul

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Bernie down, Warren up, which is to be expected. Unfortunately, Biden remains in a stable position. However, when Harris and Bernie* drop from the race, I would expect Warren to leapfrog Biden.

* Yes, I know that polls show that his voters have Biden as the second choice, but I think this might change, especially if he starts attacking Biden.
The only problem with this is that by the time everyone gets out, most of the delegates could be off the table, and with 15% proportional delegates, it may be too late for Warren by then. The only chance the rest of them have is for Biden to completely implode, at which point someone like Warren will probably move up. If no one makes their move before Iowa then Biden will be very hard to beat.
 

Revan

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The only problem with this is that by the time everyone gets out, most of the delegates could be off the table, and with 15% proportional delegates, it may be too late for Warren by then. The only chance the rest of them have is for Biden to completely implode, at which point someone like Warren will probably move up. If no one makes their move before Iowa then Biden will be very hard to beat.
She is already getting voters from Bernie and Harris, considering that her numbers are up, Bernie's and Harris' are down, while Biden's are the same.

I don't think that it will be clear before super Tuesday on who is gonna win, but I think that Warren should fancy her chances. She is in a much better position than I thought she'll be, and sooner or later Biden' s gaffes will hurt him.

Also, on the next TV debate it is very likely that he'll be on the same room as her and Bernie, and that could be make or break for all 3 (4 if you count Harris) of them.
 

Raoul

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She is already getting voters from Bernie and Harris, considering that her numbers are up, Bernie's and Harris' are down, while Biden's are the same.

I don't think that it will be clear before super Tuesday on who is gonna win, but I think that Warren should fancy her chances. She is in a much better position than I thought she'll be, and sooner or later Biden' s gaffes will hurt him.

Also, on the next TV debate it is very likely that he'll be on the same room as her and Bernie, and that could be make or break for all 3 (4 if you count Harris) of them.
The next debate should be interesting. There are nine people (Gabbard hasn't yet made it) and I would expect some of the single digit people who have been getting a bit of momentum recently to try and go after one or two of the top candidates. Steyer and Castro are also pretty close to qualifying which would make it a bit more interesting, especially if Steyer manages to get on stage.
 

sun_tzu

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The next debate should be interesting. There are nine people (Gabbard hasn't yet made it) and I would expect some of the single digit people who have been getting a bit of momentum recently to try and go after one or two of the top candidates. Steyer and Castro are also pretty close to qualifying which would make it a bit more interesting, especially if Steyer manages to get on stage.
Better hope too many don't make it otherwise it goes to two debates again I think
 

InfiniteBoredom

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I found @Red Dreams ’s brother from another mother.


@berbatrick there are not enough data points to average yet on the favourables, but NBC/WSJ is a pretty reliable poll so doubt it’s completely off. The high number of N/A probably factor into it too. It’s scary regardless, somehow the dumpster fire is still consistently at the 43-45% approval range.
 

Red Defence

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Okay, but what does this mean, though? Mueller report? Assassination? Cancer?

Because short of any of those, there's zero percent chance anyone other than Trump is the GOP nominee.
But what does this actually mean? He clearly isn't going to just get bored and chuck the job.
It means that I just can’t see him being around. The man’s clearly tuppence short of a shilling and the GOP know this.

Don’t make a big deal out of a simple comment. It’s just my opinion but the Dems should be sensible and realise that there is a possibility that he might not run and therefore not base everything on the fact that he will definitely be the GOP candidate. Yes his base like him but his base is dwindling. Farmers are already turning against him and others are bound to if the economy (seemingly their overriding concern) takes a turn for the worse. Let’s face it, his popularity is not exactly gaining in strength.
 
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