I'm not up on the details but I'd imagine restricting it to the first trimester and the well known exceptions, which is in keeping with polling on the issue iirc.
2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress
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Mike Pence Reveals Plan To Steal The Election
Maybe? Not necessarily. Going somewhere else to do it could still leave you open for prosecution in your home state.
At this point, unless the Dems win the Senate and are not chickens for once, things will be very grim.
Bush beat Gore in florida by around 500 votes.
I was thinking about this yesterday.
Kentucky has about 2m population that votes.
If I was a Dem billionaire and wanted to make a difference, I would offer a $1000 to every person in Kentucky who is registered republican or unregistered and votes against McConnell and he loses.
For an investment of about 200m or so, you would get rid of the evil leader of the GOP.
Kentucky has about 2m population that votes.
If I was a Dem billionaire and wanted to make a difference, I would offer a $1000 to every person in Kentucky who is registered republican or unregistered and votes against McConnell and he loses.
For an investment of about 200m or so, you would get rid of the evil leader of the GOP.
Fixed that for you
No chance that's where the base that goes rabid about "abortion is murder" stops there. If they have a solid 6-3 they will want the line at not even allowing victims of rape to have an abortion - adoption they'll say. I'd guess they'd only allow it in cases where mother's life in danger.
that's where the "pro-life" people I've known would draw the line.
Any person who's pro-life should be 'canny' enough to realise that the exceptions should always be allowed. It's much, much harder to argue the case for further liberalisation when they are.
Does anyone have any links to polls conducted anonymously?
I wouldn't trust any that aren't.
I wouldn't trust any that aren't.
That's from this morning. Not very encouraging.
Many of those ‘canny’ people cannot divorce their religion from their common sense, unfortunately.
What do you mean anonymously? As in a completely random sample? That would get you terrible polls.
That the respondent replies to the poll anonymously.
In other words, that the poll isn't conducted face-to-face or over the phone.
Five Things Biden and His Allies Should Be Worried About - New York Times
You should subscribe and read the article, but for those who can't this was interesting:
You should subscribe and read the article, but for those who can't this was interesting:
You don't know the pro life group. Onenil is not far wrong but i will say that there is a significant amount of pro life population who believes life is gift of god and won't make an excuse for incest and rape as well. That is not even considering the charming minority who believe if you conceived,them you must have enjoyed it
fecking Florida would be the death of US @Florida Man
Both are conservative playgrounds. Arizona gets all our [CA] fake tough guys that want to play with guns all day.
Yeah I lived there for an year
People worrying about Arizona are 
. Cindy McCain just endorsed Biden, AZ should be a wrap (as a native Arizonan, there is no family more respected than the McCain family in the state).
Look, if Biden takes FL and AZ, he will likely only win by 1-2 points max so it makes sense that some polls may have Trump ahead from time to time. Im not worried about a 2016 polling error as they fixed the issues to the point where 2018 was actually quite accurate.
. Cindy McCain just endorsed Biden, AZ should be a wrap (as a native Arizonan, there is no family more respected than the McCain family in the state).Look, if Biden takes FL and AZ, he will likely only win by 1-2 points max so it makes sense that some polls may have Trump ahead from time to time. Im not worried about a 2016 polling error as they fixed the issues to the point where 2018 was actually quite accurate.
A lot of them are going to Idaho now
https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...ut-polls-could-still-be-missing-some-of-them/
Many polls (eg. Yougov) are online.
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/11/what-if-trump-refuses-concede/616424/
@Raoul am I starting to win you over to panic stations yet?
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Why does it matter? Florida and Arizona I always assumed would be Trump states. It's mid west and south east where it will matter. Our state, North Carolina, will be a total battlefield.
Interesting, but I'd have to see the results of many anonymously conducted polls to determine whether there's any pattern.
https://fivethirtyeight.com/feature...ut-polls-could-still-be-missing-some-of-them/
Many polls (eg. Yougov) are online.
Such polling was much more reliable than face-to-face or phone surveys when it came to Brexit for example.
I'm genuinely surprised that Trump hasn't concocted a war against Iran yet.
https://www.270towin.com/maps/je99E
That is what I’m putting my faith in.
In other news
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Why am I not assured by this cuntweasel?
If he's improving in FL, then he's likely going to do better than expected in NC, GA, AZ and a few other states that are currently too close to call.
This is also a good map to show non Americans why it's silly to generalize. People and their mentalities can be so different across states. I feel someone from NYC probably relates more to a Londoner than a smokey mountain resident.
His caveat will be “Trump was the winner on November 3rd, there has to be a cut off point on counting ballots otherwise it could be argued forever” as they take it to the conservative packed courts and they throw out millions of perfectly good ballots that couldn’t be counted in time.
Too close for comfort imo. Even if Biden were to squeak it out like this, Trump would contest the hell out of several states to try and overturn it in the courts. Biden needs get a 50 or more EV win for Trump's post-election feckwittery to fall on deaf ears.
Let’s hope to feck that happens - my scenario is more of a «worst case» where Biden still barely gets by.
If you put any stock into this, then Arizona going to Trump gives him a very real shot at winning.
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/
Trump is still looking like a very tempting bet at slightly better than evens. I really might lay a consolation bet.
In Nigeria, we don't even bother about peaceful transitions of power anynore.
The feck is wrong with you America?
The feck is wrong with you America?
National polling doesn't seem to be moving much, state polling seems to be getting worse.
What is the value of any polling is during a pandemic (people not going to voting booths, people getting evicted and maybe having problems with their registration, people able to vote by mail but the USPS being sabotaged) since the likely voter samples might be totally off? One option would be to look therefore at registered voter polls,which look great for Biden, but OTOH the sampling issue could go totally the other way.
@DavidDeSchmikes your post about Biden clocking out at 9AM is frightening. I wonder whether the party even wants to win. There's a pandemic, a collapsed economy, massive social unrest. Might be easier to win big in the next midterms since Trump remains unpopular.
@Suedesi lots of people poured over registration and early voting data in 2016 and convinced themselves that Hillary was sweeping NC and FL but it didn't happen, I think it's not a very good metric.
What is the value of any polling is during a pandemic (people not going to voting booths, people getting evicted and maybe having problems with their registration, people able to vote by mail but the USPS being sabotaged) since the likely voter samples might be totally off? One option would be to look therefore at registered voter polls,which look great for Biden, but OTOH the sampling issue could go totally the other way.
@DavidDeSchmikes your post about Biden clocking out at 9AM is frightening. I wonder whether the party even wants to win. There's a pandemic, a collapsed economy, massive social unrest. Might be easier to win big in the next midterms since Trump remains unpopular.
@Suedesi lots of people poured over registration and early voting data in 2016 and convinced themselves that Hillary was sweeping NC and FL but it didn't happen, I think it's not a very good metric.
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