2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress

[SinNombre]

Anyone trying to call this race now is fecking mental. Trump has very few paths to victory, and shit like ‘OMG he won Florida!’ don’t move that needle in the slightest. He was expected to win Florida. He was expected to win Ohio. He was expected to win Georgia. So far he hasn’t done all those things, and even if he does he still needs to hold onto the old blue wall states that are extremely unlikely for him.

Don’t get me wrong, tonight could be a massive shock and Trump could win, but people are totally overlooking how narrow his path to victory actually is. He’s having a much better night than most of us expected, but he STILL needs everything from here on out to fall pretty much perfectly for him, and that is still very unlikely.

But hey, people are going to gnash their teeth and panic regardless, so have at it.

I am calling this based on actual data and have been right all evening.

People are panicking because Biden's path is shortened.

AZ has gotten really important for Biden.

 

[GDaly95]

Why am I starting to feel like this thread is about to get toxic

 

[DOTA]

Are you insinuating he was thread-banned? For saying he voted for Trump?

We rightly ban them all in the end anyway. It saves time if we just make it policy.

 

[Revan]

More like 600k votes unless my maths is completely off.

Indeed. Kelly is doing even better than Trump there, but the pattern seems to match. GOP needs to win around 65-70% of the remaining votes to get the state, so unless the not counted votes are from heavily GOP areas, Dems are going to win it.

But the situation in Midwest is not looking good, so it might be for nothing.

 

[Frosty]

Maybe the other option is worse

I don't know. If Trump wins I wouldn't mind sitting in a cave for four years.

 

[Precaution]

The Trump thread about to be 9,000 pages long in 4 years

 

[Ayush_reddevil]

More like 600k votes unless my maths is completely off.

CNN showed 1 million & 1.2 million votes with;75 percent counted so I assume it's close 730000 left

 

[mu4c_20le]

So Biden is basically Ole. He's going to do it the hard way.

 

[Mickeza]

Can Biden lose Pennsylvania if he wins Arizona and Nevada?

 

[Stack]

We rightly ban them all in the end anyway. It saves time if we just make it policy.

Banned for saying they vote for Trump? Are you serious?

 

[Ubik]

One question, why is ABC news so confident that mail in vote will change it in favour for Democrats? Or is it just wishful thinking?

Mail in votes are heavily Dem this time round. We don't know if it'll be enough.

 

[100]

Can Biden lose Pennsylvania if he wins Arizona and Nevada?

Yeah but he'll need to clean up everything else.

 

[Ubik]

Can Biden lose Pennsylvania if he wins Arizona and Nevada?

As long as Wisconsin and Michigan flipped Dem, AND he wins NE-2.

 

[reelworld]

TX is over for Biden.
It should be no surprise, but it's still disappointing nevertheless

 

[Klopper76]

This is what I can't understand:

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[DavidDeSchmikes]

next polls closing in 20 mins

 

[Kentonio]

Can Biden lose Pennsylvania if he wins Arizona and Nevada?

Yup.

 

[Revan]

Not exactly? Biden spent his campaign on building back the blue wall around states hillary lost. Those states have only 30% of votes in right now

I hope you are right, but the polls seem to be quite off again, and the polls were having PA on less than 4 points for Biden. So far, Trump has been doing 2-4+ points better almost everywhere.

If Trump gets PA, Biden needs to win all three of Arizona, Wisconsin, and Michigan. But that is quite irrelevant, if he gets PA, he likely gets Wisconsin and Michigan too. And in any case, the SC might give one of them to him if needed.

 

[Klopper76]

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[Siorac]

This is what I can't understand:

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And this is depressing, even if Biden somehow ends up sneaking through in the end. Close to half of the American voting population saw four years of Donald fecking Trump and said "yeah, we need more of this".

 

[Mickeza]

As long as Wisconsin and Michigan flipped Dem, AND wins NE-2.

He’s still favourite then. I still think in Georgia there’s a chance too.

 

[Giant Midget]

I'm off for a wank. May it be my last one in a Trump presidency.

 

[VeevaVee]

This is what I can't understand:

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Idiots are still idiots. Stubborn people won't change their side.

 

[Wibble]

Are you insinuating he was thread-banned? For saying he voted for Trump?

He wasn't thread banned and if he were it wouldn't be for declaring who he voted for.

 

[Frosty]

This is what I can't understand:

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Which means the Republican Party won't feel like they need to change, especially as they hold the Senate.

 

[Libano]

Trump 6% ahead in Ohio.

polls wrong by 12-15%. not science. propaganda.

 

[Redplane]

This is what I can't understand:

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The worst thing about that is that even if he loses-it will send a message that being an evil motherfecker can still be a viable tactic to win an election.

 

[ChaddyP]

So Biden is basically Ole. He's going to do it the hard way.

It's actually the easiest way. Win Arizona MI WI and nebrasca 2nd....doesnt matter what trump does after.


Polling showed Biden was in play for North california and maybe even Georgia. It never really showed ohio trending blue, the path to victory for Biden was always through the mid West and Arizona. Anything else was just icing on the cake.

 

[Revan]

polls wrong by 12-15%. not science. propaganda.

He was projected to win in Ohio from literally every poll.

 

[ManchesterYoda]

States can be shifting towards red, shifting towards blue or showing no significant changes.
Arizona was shifting towards blue and that is why it could turn blue at this election.

 

[DFreshKing]

Anyone thinking Biden was going to walk this election might want to check their news sources.

 

[Ayush_reddevil]

Trump up to 1.4 from 1.2 on the betting for anyone interested


P.S : Please don't threadban me

 

[NYAS]

He wasn't thread banned and if he were it wouldn't be for declaring who he voted for.

Thankfully. Good to know.

 

[altodevil]

Anyone thinking Biden was going to walk this election might want to check their news sources.

i.e all of them except websites in comic sans

 

[Smores]

This is what I can't understand:

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I think it has but it's outweighed by hatred from the other side. That's just where much of the world is these days.

 

[Revan]

It's actually the easiest way. Win Arizona MI WI and nebrasca 2nd....doesnt matter what trump does after.


Polling showed Biden was in play for North california and maybe even Georgia. It never really showed ohio trending blue, the path to victory for Biden was always through the mid West and Arizona. Anything else was just icing on the cake.

Polls also had Biden a slight favorite in Florida, and this seems to have been the biggest error in polls. But you are right, Ohio, Georgia, and North Carolina (especially the former two) were leaning-Trump based on polls. N Carolina was a tossup and well, it seems that it was (in the end Trump is gonna win it by 1-2 points).

 

[Carolina Red]

@DOTA @Stack

nobody is thread banned

 

[Wibble]

Trump up to 1.4 from 1.2 on the betting for anyone interested


P.S : Please don't threadban me

I or 2 a page and nobody cares. It would be the same if half the posts in this thread were about stock prices.

 

[DavidDeSchmikes]

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[Siorac]

I think it has but it's outweighed by hatred from the other side. That's just where much of the world is these days.

It really is a culture war all over the world.