2020 US Elections | Biden certified as President | Dems control Congress

[Pexbo]

Is that worse than losing the SCOTUS?

Do you think Biden would get his nomination through a McConnell lead Senate? If he did, what sort of judge do you think it would be?

 

[Grinner]

You are right.

That is not what I was saying.
If you want to win an election, you have to listen to what voters want and deliver. Not just say the other guy is bad.


That is what Hillary did.

i'm afraid you have to deal with the fact that major progressive change can only be incremental.

 

[Red Dreams]

Biden doesn't know what office he is running for.. He will be absolutely useless if elected.

He clearly shows signs of going into Dementia.

But sadly he is the next 'best' option.

 

[Grinner]

Do you think Biden would get his nomination through a McConnell lead Senate? If he did, what sort of judge do you think it would be?

Yes because he would pick one that some senators would vote for. There's no way Mitch can block a nomination for years so he has to confirm somebody.

 

[Pexbo]

Yes because he would pick one that some senators would vote for. There's no way Mitch can block a nomination for years so he has to confirm somebody.

This is McConnell. He answers to nobody.

 

[Grinner]

This is McConnell. He answers to nobody.

there a few senators who would have to go along with the process.

 

[Revan]

The senate can't be won this time around. I can see moderate repubs voting for Joe, but not for Bernard.

Hard but doable. Jones will (likely) lose Alabama. Dems will flip Colorado quite easily it seems, both seats in Georgia are in play, as is Arizona. Collins is the second most unpopular senator in the US, so Maine can be in play too. There are another few longer shots, but still can be done. And it definitely can be done in 2022.

The only Republicans who seem to be willing to break the party lines (occasionally) are Collins, Murkowski, and Romney. Even if them would join the Dems, McConnell wouldn't allow a vote to happen (same as he did for Obama's last pick). So even if you go as centrist as possible, it still won't matter.

 

[Red Dreams]

i'm afraid you have to deal with the fact that major progressive change can only be incremental.

Grin. I'm merely pointing out the reality.
Trumps voters will be ginned up. The narrative of him being impeached because of Biden resonates.
Biden will not bring in new voters which will be needed to win states like WI.

You need a wave election. That can only happen if Sanders is the nominee.
the Dems will then also have Congress.
The reality though is the DNC considers Sanders a worse result.
Why? Money.

 

[Grinner]

I just don't see how a vote can be blocked for several years.

 

[Grinner]

Grin. I'm merely pointing out the reality.
Trumps voters will be ginned up. The narrative of him being impeached because of Biden resonates.
Biden will not bring in new voters which will be needed to win states like WI.

You need a wave election. That can only happen if Sanders is the nominee.
the Dems will then also have Congress.
The reality though is the DNC considers Sanders a worse result.
Why? Money.

A wave election requires moderate repubs to vote for you. I don't think they will vote for Bernard, they would vote for Joe. That's my point.

 

[Revan]

By simply not allowing it to take place. He did it for a year, and there were 0 consequences, with a lot of rewards. McConnell has always been an obstructionist, but he has been going more extreme with each year passing. In the last 3 years or so, he isn't even bothering to pretend.

 

[Organic Potatoes]

I've pretty much accepted that it's four more years of Trump. Sucks to be you, USA

I see this echoed a lot here, which is odd.

Analysts have the GE as not much more than a coin flip either way.

 

[Grinner]

By simply not allowing it to take place. He did it for a year, and there were 0 consequences, with a lot of rewards. McConnell has always been an obstructionist, but he has been going more extreme with each year passing. In the last 3 years or so, he isn't even bothering to pretend.

Well that will definitely happen then if Bernard gets in

 

[Pexbo]

I just don't see how a vote can be blocked for several years.

McConnell currently has something like 500 pieces of legislation on his desk with something like 400 of them getting bi-partisan backing in the House and he’s just ignoring them. Why would a SCOTUS pick be any different? They will create a huge drama around something and use it as reason why they can’t have a vote. A senate investigation into x or y.

 

[DOTA]

I see this echoed a lot here, which is odd.

Analysts have the GE as not much more than a coin flip either way.

Those famously reliable people, political analysts.

 

[Revan]

Well that will definitely happen then if Bernard gets in

Absolutely. Hope it to flip the senate either now or in 2022, and then fill the court with left-wing SCOTUSes. My point is that it won't matter who is the Democratic president, I don't see McConnell appointing judges picked by the Dem president.

 

[Red Dreams]

A wave election requires moderate repubs to vote for you. I don't think they will vote for Bernard, they would vote for Joe. That's my point.

No.

A wave election brings in voters who have not voted before and are excited about voting now.
That is what Trump did.

Going to the middle which is what you are talking about will not bring in enough crossover voters to compensate for loss of new voters.

But to address your point, people across all spectrum will respond to what benefits their pocketbooks.

Health care and Climate Change are huge concerns now. education too.
Why Sanders is polling so well. That is not just progressives. its across all demographics.

 

[Grinner]

McConnell currently has something like 500 pieces of legislation on his desk with something like 400 of them getting bi-partisan backing in the House and he’s just ignoring them. Why would a SCOTUS pick be any different? They will create a huge drama around something and use it as reason why they can’t have a vote. A senate investigation into x or y.

Because hamstringing a co-equal branch of Govt. is a big deal. He got away with that Obama nonsense but I can't see him doing it again.

 

[Grinner]

I see this echoed a lot here, which is odd.

Analysts have the GE as not much more than a coin flip either way.

If it's that close then my money is on the one with the best dirty tricksters.

 

[Pexbo]

Because hamstringing a co-equal branch of Govt. is a big deal. He got away with that Obama nonsense but I can't see him doing it again.

He got away with it. It’s normal behaviour now, simply his prerogative as Senate Maj Ldr.

 

[Red Dreams]

If it's that close then my money is on the one with the best dirty tricksters.

Trump has given the keys to the Russians. he has a double headed coin.

 

[Florida Man]

Let’s not forget it’s the lack of spine of mainstream Democrats that led to Trump in the first place.

 

[Grinner]

It's worth checking out that show on EPIX based on the Watergate podcast. They do a good explanation of how Nixon neutralized Humphrey and Muskie in 72 so that he ended up running against McGovern. I see parallels of that here.

 

[Organic Potatoes]

Those famously reliable people, political analysts.

They've adjusted to the new reality, for the most part.

Regardless, it is a rather simple calculus for a non-analyst even. There are only a few states that matter in this electoral process, and all trended blue in the last elections.
So to flail in dismay that Donald almost has it in the bag is silly.

 

[Grinner]

He got away with it. It’s normal behaviour now, simply his prerogative as Senate Maj Ldr.

I see several constitutional crises in the future.

 

[Florida Man]

Who gives a feck about moderate Republicans? Most people identify as independent.

 

[Grinner]

There's currently a lot of talk that Trump is preparing to ignore the SCOTUS on it's ruling on his tax returns if it's unfavourable. They have no enforcement power so there's little could be done about it. He wouldn't be like Nixon who considered it, but ultimately decided that the Republic was more important.

 

[Red Dreams]

I see several constitutional crises in the future.

How many have we had so far?

Trump simply does not respect laws and SCOTUS does nothing.

 

[Pexbo]

I see several constitutional crises in the future.

Put them on the top of the pile. A constitutional crisis used to be a big deal. Now it’s just another thing to shrug your shoulders about. There’s no consequences.

 

[Red Dreams]

There's currently a lot of talk that Trump is preparing to ignore the SCOTUS on it's ruling on his tax returns if it's unfavourable. They have no enforcement power so there's little could be done about it. He wouldn't be like Nixon who considered it, but ultimately decided that the Republic was more important.

Nixon looks like a true patriot compared to this nutter.

 

[Grinner]

Ignoring the SCOTUS has never happened. That's a huge deal if he does it.

 

[Red Dreams]

Ignoring the SCOTUS has never happened. That's a huge deal if he does it.

a new barrier will be broken.

 

[DOTA]

They've adjusted to the new reality, for the most part.

Regardless, it is a rather simple calculus for a non-analyst even. There are only a few states that matter in this electoral process, and all trended blue in the last elections.
So to flail in dismay that Donald almost has it in the bag is silly.

I'm not sure folks are flailing in dismay. I think they're just giving their 'I reckon'. There's a lot of sensible arguments that he has it in the bag, there's a lot of sensible arguments that he'll likely lose.

What some nerds think many months out is to be taken no more seriously than whatever Grinner reckons though. We don't know what the state of the country or the world will be, before we even try and guess how voters will react.

 

[Grinner]

Nixon looks like a true patriot compared to this nutter.

Nixon was awful but he did ultimately bow to the law

 

[Grinner]

a new barrier will be broken.

You don't come back from that one.

 

[Grinner]

I'm not sure folks are flailing in dismay. I think they're just giving their 'I reckon'. There's a lot of sensible arguments that he has it in the bag, there's a lot of sensible arguments that he'll likely lose.

What some nerds think many months out is to be taken no more seriously than whatever Grinner reckons though. We don't know what the state of the country or the world will be, before we even try and guess how voters will react.

well we can only make our arguments based on the now

 

[Red Dreams]

Nixon was awful but he did ultimately bow to the law

True.
even in 1960 when there was shady stuff done in the MI count, Nixon did dot want to hurt the country by contesting it.

 

[Red Dreams]

You don't come back from that one.

Its about survival for Trump.
He needs to remain in power to conceal all his crimes including treason.

 

[Grinner]

True.
even in 1960 when there was shady stuff done in the MI count, Nixon did dot want to hurt the country by contesting it.

Do you really believe Trump is going to allow this to be a fair fight given how much he and his cabal have to lose?

 

[Red Dreams]

Do you really believe Trump is going to allow this to be a fair fight given how much he and his cabal have to lose?

Of course not.
There will be election fraud. Voter Suppression. Russian interference.
The only way to overcome it is huge voter turnout.

Sheer numbers.