2024 U.S. Elections

[VorZakone]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

 

[Raoul]

It’s about 70/30 from Biden according to RFK’s sister Rory.

 

[Rajma]

Pardon my ignorance but wouldn’t there be a need for a 2nd round given that none of the 3 candidates would get more than 50% of the vote? What weird system if that’s so. Also Biden is toast in a 3 horse race for sure, it has been evident for a while from polls that RFK is taking away from Biden much more than he’s from Trump.

 

[Red in STL]

Pardon my ignorance but wouldn’t there be a need for a 2nd round given that none of the 3 candidates would get more than 50% of the vote? What weird system if that’s so. Also Biden is toast in a 3 horse race for sure, it has been evident for a while from polls that RFK is taking away from Biden much more than he’s from Trump.

What % of the vote a candidate gets is irrelevant, electoral college votes are what matter

 

[WI_Red]

What % of the vote a candidate gets is irrelevant, electoral college votes are what matter

Not true. If no candidate gets 270 it moves to the House who choose between the top 3 EC vote getters.

 

[Blood Mage]

Trump going into an election as the favourite at least softens the blow. 2016 was devastating as I thought for sure Hillary would crush him.

 

[Red in STL]

Not true. If no candidate gets 270 it moves to the House who choose between the top 3 EC vote getters.

That's true but still irrelevant to the % of votes a candidate gets

 

[ManUtd1999]

That's true but still irrelevant to the % of votes a candidate gets

In other words: a candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win. However, a candidate doesn’t need 50% of the votes in a state to win its electoral votes, nor does the candidate need 50% nationally.

 

[Red in STL]

In other words: a candidate needs 270 electoral votes to win. However, a candidate doesn’t need 50% of the votes in a state to win its electoral votes, nor does the candidate need 50% nationally.

270 is needed to win outright but if that number isn't reached then the House of Representatives decides, say Biden got 260, Trump got 240 and RFK Jr got 38 - the House could select RFK Jr in theory though TBH yuu've more chance of being that luck bstard in New Jersey that this scenario happening!

 

[Morty_]

I don't really think that is true, polling that i have seen shows no real difference in which party he takes away more from.

 

[Morty_]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

"Trump will give us lower prices", "Trump will bring down inflation", "Trump is amazing on the economy."

- Average voter

 

[B. Munich]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

Why would Kennedy run at all? He has no chance to win. Only to harm Biden and his own party?

 

[nimic]

Why would Kennedy run at all? He has no chance to win. Only to harm Biden and his own party?

He's got plenty of appeal to some Republican voters, so it's not a given that he will harm the Democrats more.

 

[InfiniteBoredom]

He's got plenty of appeal to some Republican voters, so it's not a given that he will harm the Democrats more.

Meh, his appeal is pretty much conspiracy theory + name recognition m, not white bread, boring, sensible enough for the traditional National Review reading Republicans. The conspiracy theorists on GOP side are all Trumpists.

 

[oneniltothearsenal]

270 is needed to win outright but if that number isn't reached then the House of Representatives decides, say Biden got 260, Trump got 240 and RFK Jr got 38 - the House could select RFK Jr in theory though TBH yuu've more chance of being that luck bstard in New Jersey that this scenario happening!

In 92 Perot got 0 electoral votes despite getting 19% of the popular vote and leading polls before he drooped out.

There is no chance RFK jr gets any electoral votes. RFK is completely irrelevant in the grand scheme and likely doesn't take any meaningful votes from either candidate.

 

[NM]

In 92 Perot got 0 electoral votes despite getting 19% of the popular vote and leading polls before he drooped out.

There is no chance RFK jr gets any electoral votes. RFK is completely irrelevant in the grand scheme and likely doesn't take any meaningful votes from either candidate.

All he has to do is spoil some combo PA, AZ, GA, or WI and trump is back.. About 100K votes will do it

 

[Raoul]

All he has to do is spoil some combo PA, AZ, GA, or WI and trump is back.. About 100K votes will do it

Trump is already leading in most of these states so RFK wouldn't really make much of a difference in this regard. We also don't know who will actually vote for RFK in the end, especially once the instense media scrutiny begins about his history of conspiracy theories.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/sarado...-he-promotes-from-vaccines-to-mass-shootings/

 

[Morty_]

West and Stein will take more from Biden, don't know what their status is when getting ballot access in the swing States though.

 

[Red in STL]

In 92 Perot got 0 electoral votes despite getting 19% of the popular vote and leading polls before he drooped out.

There is no chance RFK jr gets any electoral votes. RFK is completely irrelevant in the grand scheme and likely doesn't take any meaningful votes from either candidate.

He's not totally irrelevant, one can easily envisage him being the difference in close states, the current theory is that he takes more votes from Biden than Trump, that definitely might have affected the GA result in 2020, it's not likely I agree but he's not completely irrrelevant

 

[oneniltothearsenal]

He's not totally irrelevant, one can easily envisage him being the difference in close states, the current theory is that he takes more votes from Biden than Trump, that definitely might have affected the GA result in 2020, it's not likely I agree but he's not completely irrrelevant

It's possible that could happen although the reverse might be true as well for the libertarian candidate. I just don't see RFK jr actually pulling votes away from Biden at this stage. I feel like the people he appeals to likely already didn't vote for Biden in 2020.

 

[B. Munich]

Meh, his appeal is pretty much conspiracy theory + name recognition m, not white bread, boring, sensible enough for the traditional National Review reading Republicans. The conspiracy theorists on GOP side are all Trumpists.

WTF is wrong with America? Every second politician is some weirdo believing in conspiracy theories. Now even within the Democrat party?

 

[InfiniteBoredom]

WTF is wrong with America? Every second politician is some weirdo believing in conspiracy theories. Now even within the Democrat party?

Tbf when every Tom Dick And Harry can run for office, the word ‘politician’ kinda loses any significant meaning.

Trust in institution in the US is at an all time low, that’s fertile breeding ground for these characters

 

[iKnowNothing]

This is exactly why I was thinking Biden isn’t doing as strong as some here feel.

 

[Raoul]

This is exactly why I was thinking Biden isn’t doing as strong as some here feel.

Beyond the age factor, the perception that life is still too expensive after the pandemic is going to be the main reason people think twice about voting for him. That is of course not his fault given that we're still in the process of recovering from a once in a lifetime economic shock.

 

[Raoul]

Biden's political dilemma of whether to reach middle or left.

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

 

[Morty_]

https://eu.azcentral.com/story/news...ar-a-shadow-of-his-2020-campaign/73133526007/

Arizona GOP is still in bad shape, it seems.

 

[Raoul]

https://eu.azcentral.com/story/news...ar-a-shadow-of-his-2020-campaign/73133526007/

Arizona GOP is still in bad shape, it seems.

AZ is a lost cause for Republicans these days. Two Dem Senators elected in recent years, and now a Dem governor. Their R candidates are also increasingly unhinged from Kelli Ward to Kari Lake to Joe Arpaio. Normal Rs like Martha McSally and Doug Ducey are unelectable now because they couldn't clear the primary process against a MAGA opponent, and MAGA candidates struggle to beat Dems. All of this is happening as the state's most populous area, Maricopa County, is trending towards the Dems.

AZ is basically a harbinger of what is slowly beginning to happen in GA and what will eventually happen in TX.

 

[WPMUFC]

I'm unsure of the logic here, they seem to be under the impression that they will be immune from Trump or somehow believe this is exacting revenge for Biden's Israel policy? These are exactly the type of protestors Trump wanted to shoot.

Have sections of the left seemingly talked themselves into "well if Trump is elected at least our ideological war is more pure?"

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

 

[4bars]

I'm unsure of the logic here, they seem to be under the impression that they will be immune from Trump or somehow believe this is exacting revenge for Biden's Israel policy? These are exactly the type of protestors Trump wanted to shoot.

Have sections of the left seemingly talked themselves into "well if Trump is elected at least our ideological war is more pure?"

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

The situation for the palestinians can get worse with trump in the sense of destruction and killing because israel is doing what they please and biden is giving them what they want to bomb the shit out of them. With trump the only thing that would change is that instead of seeing tweets like: " Biden doesnt pick the phone to netanyahu and is very very very mad holding his breath", Trump would laugh at palestinian faces. But the death and destruction will be the same

They will change hypocresy for humilliation

 

[RedDevilQuebecois]

I'm unsure of the logic here, they seem to be under the impression that they will be immune from Trump or somehow believe this is exacting revenge for Biden's Israel policy? These are exactly the type of protestors Trump wanted to shoot.

Have sections of the left seemingly talked themselves into "well if Trump is elected at least our ideological war is more pure?"

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

You have to wonder if that guy is actually a paid shit-disturber for the Trump campaign. I have seen a number of those clowns going everywhere that Justin Trudeau goes just to heckle him, and a little bit of digging links those people straight to the top of the Conservative Party. Our Tories have been using tactics already used by the MAGA scum in the last 2-3 years now.

 

[WPMUFC]

The situation for the palestinians can get worse with trump in the sense of destruction and killing because israel is doing what they please and biden is giving them what they want to bomb the shit out of them. With trump the only thing that would change is that instead of seeing tweets like: " Biden doesnt pick the phone to netanyahu and is very very very mad holding his breath", Trump would laugh at palestinian faces. But the death and destruction will be the same

They will change hypocresy for humilliation

Sure, but I'm not so much talking about the policy they are protesting. I'm more focused on what they are actually trying to get across here. They are essentially saying "haha you're supporting Biden, and we won't vote for him, so enjoy Trump ". Basically trying to "shame" democrats. But do these people really believe that they will be able to protest Trump's Israel policy with a Trump admin that has no one in place to stop his orders or talk him down?

I guess what i'm confused about is that are trying to shame others with the fear of Trump, but this dude will either be straight up shot at protests or in prison for terrorism offences under any Trump admin. It's like he's trying to shame others with his own pending oppression.

 

[4bars]

Sure, but I'm not so much talking about the policy they are protesting. I'm more focused on what they are actually trying to get across here. They are essentially saying "haha you're supporting Biden, and we won't vote for him, so enjoy Trump ". Basically trying to "shame" democrats. But do these people really believe that they will be able to protest Trump's Israel policy with a Trump admin that has no one in place to stop his orders or talk him down?

I guess what i'm confused about is that are trying to shame others with the fear of Trump, but this dude will either be straight up shot at protests or in prison for terrorism offences under any Trump admin. It's like he's trying to shame others with his own pending oppression.

I would say that when you have little to lose (and he has little to lose if he doesnt do anything stupid under trump), they will enjoy US getting feck by trump. Scortch earth

 

[Raoul]

I'm unsure of the logic here, they seem to be under the impression that they will be immune from Trump or somehow believe this is exacting revenge for Biden's Israel policy? These are exactly the type of protestors Trump wanted to shoot.

Have sections of the left seemingly talked themselves into "well if Trump is elected at least our ideological war is more pure?"

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

I wouldn't read much into it. Its one guy running his mouth to wind a few event goers up.

 

[ManUtd1999]

This loud guy may be paid by the Trump campaign, and all of that. That’s not the issue.

The issue is that Biden’s policy towards Gaza is bad and not at sync with the views of many of his voters. I hear that every day, including from people who still plan to vote for him (because of Trump). I know others who won’t vote at all. If you lose a big enough part of your base, you have no realistic chance of winning.

Biden is committing a moral error and a political error. He ran on restoring the “soul of America” and defending human rights, and now he’s allowing starvation of kids. At some point, there will be those on your camp who say: enough!

His stand on this issue has been the biggest disappointment that I had of a politician in my lifetime, and I remember well the days of Bush Senior and beyond.

 

[africanspur]

Sure, but I'm not so much talking about the policy they are protesting. I'm more focused on what they are actually trying to get across here. They are essentially saying "haha you're supporting Biden, and we won't vote for him, so enjoy Trump ". Basically trying to "shame" democrats. But do these people really believe that they will be able to protest Trump's Israel policy with a Trump admin that has no one in place to stop his orders or talk him down?

I guess what i'm confused about is that are trying to shame others with the fear of Trump, but this dude will either be straight up shot at protests or in prison for terrorism offences under any Trump admin. It's like he's trying to shame others with his own pending oppression.

Were many people shot at protests or imprisoned under terrorism offences when protesting under the last Trump presidency?

 

[ManUtd1999]

Were many people shot at protests or imprisoned under terrorism offences when protesting under the last Trump presidency?

In 2020, there were Americans arrested by unidentified masked agents who were put in unidentified cars and taken to unknown locations. Protesters were pepper sprayed at Lafayette Square so that Trump could take a photo with the Bible upside down.

 

[WI_Red]

Were many people shot at protests or imprisoned under terrorism offences when protesting under the last Trump presidency?

No, but he did ask his defense secretary if he could bring in the army and shoot protesters in the legs. The DefSec was not MAGA enough to say “sure”, but I have the feeling the next one would not be so constitutionally curious.

 

[Suv666]

I'm unsure of the logic here, they seem to be under the impression that they will be immune from Trump or somehow believe this is exacting revenge for Biden's Israel policy? These are exactly the type of protestors Trump wanted to shoot.

Have sections of the left seemingly talked themselves into "well if Trump is elected at least our ideological war is more pure?"

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

Talking to my Muslim friends and family in the US got the impression that although most despise Biden the majority are going to vote for him, besides I don’t think Muslim population is enough to make a difference anyway in the grand scale of things.

 

[Bert_]

I'm unsure of the logic here, they seem to be under the impression that they will be immune from Trump or somehow believe this is exacting revenge for Biden's Israel policy? These are exactly the type of protestors Trump wanted to shoot.

Have sections of the left seemingly talked themselves into "well if Trump is elected at least our ideological war is more pure?"

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date

It's just one random guy screaming in the street. Pre-social media, no one would have even seen it unless you were in the immediate vicinity. People posting it makes it a thing.

In regards to the wider topic, your vote is the only power you have in a democracy. Threatening to vote against/abstain is a legitimate tactic to influence politians to change policy. If a voting block is willing to withdraw their support and abstain in an election and that voting block is significant enough, then you will have to make concessions to get that vote. Threatening “the alternative is worse” is a cheap tactic. Similar to MAD theory in a way, if you don’t concede on policy then we’ll let the other guy win. If you do then we’ll make sure you win.

 

[Kaush949]

Tweet

— Twitter API (@user) date