That was merely one explantion. Another is that the nation had lurched significantly to the right by way of the emergence of the Tea Party movement and a general despair of being affected by the great recession, higher unemployment etc. None of which were Obama's fault since the economy and market were already tanking during the 08 election.
2024 U.S. Elections
- Thread starter Raoul
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American economy is already the best in the world. What more do Americans want?Recent Morning Consult poll from last week.
https://pro.morningconsult.com/trackers/2024-presidential-election-polling
Again in terms of National security, there is no country more secure than the USA.
I am a bit confused by the priorities.
Its not a matter if its the best in the world (which is debatable), but rather whether Americans can afford the cost of living, leave school without being saddled with massive debt, buy increasingly expensive starter homes, afford to start and sustain a family etc. Naturally, each of these are going to animate people to vote for someone they think can alleviate each of these issues.
They want a republican back in the white house, cause it is "better for the economy", but people also say rich people should pay more in taxes.
Makes sense? No, but this is why dems can't really win on the economy.
Focus on their strengths, healthcare, abortion and economy, is what they should do.
@Raul touched on the meta viewpoint, but I think the reason why there is this disconnect can be literally be summed up in two words:
"Fox News"
It goes beyond their poisoning the minds of a large part of the country, they turned news into an entertainment business to the point where ramping up viewers with negative viewpoints to promote engagement will always drive the decisions made by news editors.
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Cable news could use a little Rudi Bhaktiar, get us back to the good old days.
I disagree a bit on Fox News, it might be cable big but it's still a small audience overall, I tend to think it's Talk Radio, Hannity et-al have talk shows on the radio where the audience is way bigger than what Fox News gets + the listener can participate more
Right wingers have their own ecosystem. For TV its definitely Fox, followed by Newsmax. Then, as you say, they have a vast talk radio empire with many hosts. And finally, they have a similar thing going on Twitter. Each of these are self-reinforcing of one another depending on how a right wing audience members consumes their information.
Not really, because turnout varies a lot. The places from where these uncommitted voters are, also varies a lot.
The ~10% against Obama was about 10k voters, while the ~13% against Biden is about 110k voters. This time they're spread over the state, concentrated in an Arab area (Dearborn) and also showing good results in a college town (Ann Arbor), while last time it was from rural areas (which had lower than statewide uncommitted vote this time).
I just think the radio shows have numbers that cable TV doesn't come close to, but you are right, it is a joined up, for the most part, ecosystem
I don’t disagree, but that is not what I was getting at. Talk radio has always been the sole domain of the right wing. Fox shifted the paradigm of how all tv media operates.
Maybe, maybe not. It's always good to have a degree of skepticism about these things.
I always go back to late October and early November of 2016, when the prevailing narratives were that Clinton was almost sure to win, due to early voter analysis. This stuff was everywhere: Hillary Clinton Appears to Gain Late Momentum on Surge of Latino Voters; Latino voting surge rattles Trump campaign; Hispanics voting in record numbers in Florida, other states, boosting Hillary Clinton. This one is particularly instructive: The Early Vote In Nevada Suggests Clinton Might Beat Her Polls There. The gist of the article is that polls put Clinton ahead of Trump by only 2 points. Obama, on the other hand, won by 7 points in 2012. The author analyzes the 2016 early vote, concludes that the patterns are similar to 2012, and infers that Clinton is likely running ahead of Trump by more than what the polls suggest.
But the analysis was wrong. Clinton won Nevada by 2.5%, in line with the polls. She lost the general election. There is limited evidence that Latinos voted in record numbers in 2016.
The problem with these narratives is they relied on assumptions that were weaker than people realized.
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They have a high rating too, so definitely cause for concern.
I read through the toplines of that poll.
The worst part is probably this:
Do you think Donald Trump's policies have:
Helped you personally ........................ 40%
Hurt you personally .............................25%
Not made much of a difference ......... 34%
Do you think Joe Biden's policies have:
Helped you personally ........................ 18%
Hurt you personally .............................43%
Not made much of a difference ......... 39%
The worst part is probably this:
Do you think Donald Trump's policies have:
Helped you personally ........................ 40%
Hurt you personally .............................25%
Not made much of a difference ......... 34%
Do you think Joe Biden's policies have:
Helped you personally ........................ 18%
Hurt you personally .............................43%
Not made much of a difference ......... 39%
Not sure how accurate these polls are. If I got a call and asked that question, then I would tell them I would vote for Trump.
As long as Trump is leading or the race is close, the voters who aren't necessarily pro Biden but don't want another term of Trump will be motivated to vote. If Biden is leading, these voters might stay home.
As long as Trump is leading or the race is close, the voters who aren't necessarily pro Biden but don't want another term of Trump will be motivated to vote. If Biden is leading, these voters might stay home.
Krugman's done some interesting work on the perception of the economy, discussed on the last NY Times podcast, which basically shows that Republicans believe the economy is bad under Democrats,and good under Republicans, regardless of economic indicators. The democrats are less sensitive to the administration, and sentiment tracks more closely with actual economic performance.
It's just another example of the GOP ecosystem working.
Assuming these polls are at least somewhat accurate - and remember Biden needs to beat Trump by c. 4% to win because of the advantages of the electoral college - I genuinely don't know what happens when Trump gets in, is f*cking insane, can't get anyhting done and subsequently has a heart attack or similar. There is no longer a GOP position on anything. It's just whatever Trump thinks at that moment in time. It's a cult, and the leader is reasonably close to death.
I used to have sympathy for GOP voters like you always see - desparately wanting their healthcare but in the same breath saying f*ck Obamacare. I used to despair at their ignorance, and think that if we could just get some actual facts and truth their way, it would be okay. But I honestly don't believe that anymore. They're pissed off, bitter old white folk who only care about themselves, and are too stupid to realise that they're left behind, not being left behind. So f*ck em, it may take another 10-12 years but they'll be dead, and then hopefully America can start sorting itself out again.
What the world is supposed to in the meantime is anyones guess.
It's just another example of the GOP ecosystem working.
Assuming these polls are at least somewhat accurate - and remember Biden needs to beat Trump by c. 4% to win because of the advantages of the electoral college - I genuinely don't know what happens when Trump gets in, is f*cking insane, can't get anyhting done and subsequently has a heart attack or similar. There is no longer a GOP position on anything. It's just whatever Trump thinks at that moment in time. It's a cult, and the leader is reasonably close to death.
I used to have sympathy for GOP voters like you always see - desparately wanting their healthcare but in the same breath saying f*ck Obamacare. I used to despair at their ignorance, and think that if we could just get some actual facts and truth their way, it would be okay. But I honestly don't believe that anymore. They're pissed off, bitter old white folk who only care about themselves, and are too stupid to realise that they're left behind, not being left behind. So f*ck em, it may take another 10-12 years but they'll be dead, and then hopefully America can start sorting itself out again.
What the world is supposed to in the meantime is anyones guess.
The entire political and media landscape of the US is fecked, and I don't see a way to walk it back.
Agreed, I think it has to get much, much worse before it gets better. The dumb ones need to suffer from their actions, there appears to be no other way to sort things out.
Obviously overturning a few major supreme court decisions would go a long way (news having to be news and poilitical dontations are the biggies for me)
GOP don't want to rely on voters longer than they have to, though, they plan on ruling indefinitely, through the courts.
If Trump gets back in, in a court that is already super right-wing, they will replace some of the older ones with 40 year old judges, to solidify their majority forever.
SC can just rule whatever they feel like, unconstitutional, no longer matters if dems holds trifectas.
I agree, but I hope what would happen next is a proportionate reaction from the democrats. The GOP remains having the major issue that their voting base is getting smaller, not bigger. If the Dems (post Trump) can get the 3 tiers, and Trump does what is likely by replacing Alito and Thomas with children, the Dems will have to do something about the SC as it's no longer fit for purpose. Maybe that's just optimistic. Have to try to be at some point right now.
Democrats will do nothing about the courts, since they are cowards.
Once the supreme court decided to give legal cover for Trump, and delay the cases against him until after the election is over, Biden should simply have these "judges" arrested and removed, laws be damned.
You can't always beat fascists by playing nice, as much as we wish so, besides, i bet these people changes their minds really quick on presidential immunity, if they are on the receiving end for once...
At this point the best chance of avoiding a second Trump presidency is for him to drop dead of natural causes between now and November. Small chance perhaps?
I'm not quite sure I understand why. Yes he's made some awful decisions and policies. But at the same time the economy is doing well, especially compared to other countries. He got the price of fuel down with a clever move and he's undone a lot of shit Trump put in place.
Yes Israel/Gaza is an issue but I think a lot is down to piss poor reporting and media coverage. He got shit the other day for talking about a ceasefire whilst eating an ice cream. But he was in an ice cream store FFS, they asked him the question, he would have got shit if he hadn't answered. Immigration is an issue but again, what isn't being covered nearly enough is the vast amount of people Biden's administration have deported. It's more the red tape and slow moving process that's just as much of an issue as the influx.
He gets on well with foreign leaders and has restored stability in overseas relationships with allies and his support of Ukraine has been ok, as have his measured responses to issues regarding Iran and striking back against the Houties with the shipping crisis in the region.
One thing is for sure, he has been a lot more stable than Trump. No daily issues or rants on Twitter to cause or cover up illegal acts or stupid mistakes. No constant media coverage or needless rallies to boost his ego. No disrespecting or falling out with allies or threats to them or insults to grieving war widows. No sucking up to Dictators like Putin or Kim, certainly not 35,000 lies or whatever Trump amassed during his Presidency. No corruption or ripping the US public off using the Presidency to earn himself money. No letting foreign spies and any old tom, dick and harry in the whitehouse. No burger buffets to championship winning sports teams......
No porn star ex wife and no relentless persecution of minorities, and no empowerment of right wing racists. claiming other countries will pay for things they clearly weren't going to.
No continual slagging of the military, FBI, Police and any other thing he felt like on that particular day. As of yet, no storming of the Capitol and putting his fellow politicians in danger either.....
And on and on and on....
So yeah, I don't think it's quite fair he's as unpopular as Trump was.
Dems did pretty well.
There are a lot of radicalized republicans in low education rural areas, ready to vote against their interests, because of the “culture wars”.
They’re mostly evangelical Christians, if the world was on fire they’d still vote for the Republican that open the doors for the Four Horsemen.
Heck I mean Clinton only won by 5% points, though that’s a very unusual election with Perot getting 19% of the popular vote.
The polls like NYT/Siena are instructive.
The issue is not media coverage of Biden eating an ice cream, it's media coverage of a bombing campaign that has killed tens of thousands of innocent civilians. Here is an AP-NARC poll from 1st of February. It finds that 50% of U.S. adults think Israel has gone too far. That includes 63% of Democrats, 52% of Independents, and 33% of Republicans. The article interviews a few people. This is one of them:
A lot of people don't like seeing this stuff and the longer they see it the less good they feel.
According to the NYT/Siena poll, 50% of voters support making it harder for migrants to seek asylum, and 43% do not support it. The people who'd be most supportive of "vast amount of people his administration has deported" are likely to be Republicans or conservatives, who'd disapprove of him overall for many other seasons. The 43% of people who do not support making it harder to seek asylum probably wouldn't give him a boost for deporting vast numbers of people.
The problem is that one of the premises of the Biden presidency was to restore stability and normalcy, but the U.S. and the world have been more unstable during the Biden administration than during Trump's, not less. There is the Gaza campaign, which has been going on for five months, the Ukraine/Russia war which has been going on for two years, there was an inflation crisis, and there was the 2nd year of COVID. We can debate the merits of Biden's response, but he is not just being penalized for the response, he is being penalized for the existence of all these issues. They generate a sense of chaos and instability.
This chaos and instability feeds into the other great concern people have: that Biden is too old to handle the job. This is a consensus opinion in the entirety of the American electorate, with numbers as high as 86%. And it is a perfectly valid and reasonable concern.
There isn't a single issue that's killing him, the problem is they all feed into each other.
None of this stuff matters that much. Let's be serious. It only matters because it feeds into the perception that he's not up for it.
But Biden has his own similar issues, his repeated age-related gaffes which remind people that he's too old and also not up for it.
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Thanks for the reply, I think you're right for the most part. As for the gaffes part and his age, I definitely agree but at the same time Trump has made just as many and is almost as old as Joe. He called his wife Mercedes the other day FFS.
As for the Ukraine issue, that's not Joe's fault and I think he would have done it even if Trump had been elected. It's just unfortunate it's on Joe's watch. The same as Israel. The timing of the attacks and the response is just unfortunate for him, however his lack of action in defence of the innocent people dying and starving and his support of Israel is absolutely on him 100%.
To be honest neither of them should be anywhere near the Presidency, especially considering the state of the world at the moment and the importance of the position, but here we are.
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Should be a wakeup call for all those who believe Trump would handle the Gaza crisis better.
http://www.breakingthenews.net/news/details/61609798
http://www.breakingthenews.net/news/details/61609798
Indeed. He also said that Hamas and Antifa will be controlling the streets if Biden is elected again. I had completely forgotten about that comment, but it's very telling as to how he's seeing the situation while still not directly talking about it. I haven't seen anyone ask him straight out what he thinks of it all, surely he must have been asked about it?
The risk is assuming that this group is larger than people who aren't necessarily pro Trump but don't want another term of Biden.
Nobody outside the MAGA cult with a sound mind who are somehow disappointed by Biden can think Trump would be a better choice.
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Doing what Kari Lake did in Arizona, i see, here's hoping Haley voters take his advice.
The blind spot that liberals have with regard to Trump is thinking that the rest of America sees him as they do: uniquely unacceptable. But there is scant evidence of this.
Trump was extremely unpopular in 2016, but so was his opponent. He handily won the group of voters that disliked both of them (beating Clinton by about 20 points). He was less popular than Biden in 2020, and still won the group of voters who disliked both of them. The difference is this group was substantially smaller in 2020 than in 2016. We are now in 2024 and Biden has become extremely unpopular. He has the worst approval rating of any president at this stage of his term. Overwhelming majorities of voters think he is too old to serve another term.
Trump is very unpopular, but he is not in a different realm of popularity than other politicians.
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MAGA supporters won't care about that. The left however might not want to vote for a president (Biden) that is right now accepting of what is happening in Gaza. Rightfully so. This will cost Biden the election is my guess.
Then the left or liberals are dumber than I thought. If Trump wins, it will be even worse for the Palestinians.
Thus it would be very shortsighted not to vote as ever no vote is a vote for Trump and MAGA.
But it isn't with "the left" that Biden is struggling with, apparently it is with independents.
I see we're back at "everyone who disagrees with the Dem candidate is dumb."
Yep, all those zero people should wake up.
And I see we're back to ignoring everything and anything Trump has ever done or said in an attempt to hope he handles the one issue we care about in a way inconsistent with his behavior of the past 30 years. And we're not allowed to call it dumb 