I mean, let’s forget all the bad things about Trump and just talk about the age of Biden. Could you imagine Biden facing 91 counts in four different jurisdictions?!!! Or Hillary Clinton?!!But Biden is old!
He objetively is and prone to demented gaffes . And trump is the same and insane.But Biden is old!
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If a sequel of that political ad has to be done, there should be a reminder of the America's finest hour in defeating the Nazis before images and sounds of Trump's Neo-Nazi supporters are shown.Tweet
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The mental gymnastics and pretzel-esq twisting to defend Trump's recent comments are as expected both plentiful and cringe worthy. Hopefully this ad hits home. Although I honestly can't see how anyone could be undecided. Maybe undecided if they are voting or not, but certainly not for which candidate.
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Not sure how you can conclude that Trump losing is an unexpected long shot. It's probably about 50-50 at this point with other factors that are currently unpredictable that will sway things.I'd bet my bottom dollar on a Republican sweep this November. Such an outcome, unfortunately, is likely to result in widespread dissatisfaction and instability. Expect Trump to revel in victory like a child with a new toy, igniting a storm of protest from all corners—liberal factions, women, Antifa, immigrants, and those mysterious deep state figures alike. It's a recipe for chaos.
Conversely, should Trump unexpectedly lose (a long shot, admittedly), we'll find ourselves navigating an endless torrent of fraud allegations and conspiracy theories about covert interference, ensuring chaos reigns supreme.
No matter the outcome, post-November America is set for a rollercoaster ride. Strap in!
Call it my inner Spidey-sense tingling, but I'm betting Biden's gonna take a tumble in Michigan, Florida, Georgia, Arizona, and North Carolina. That pretty much tangles up his re-election roadmap.Not sure how you can conclude that Trump losing is an unexpected long shot. It's probably about 50-50 at this point with other factors that are currently unpredictable that will sway things.
Agreed. Its about 50-50 at this point. The perception that Trump will win is based on largely bogus registered voters polls. Those numbers are likely to drift more towards Biden once more likely voter polls are released and the public actually have a moment to ponder the prospects of another 4 years of Trump in office. He could of course still win, but its definitely not a "long shot" if Biden were to win another term.Not sure how you can conclude that Trump losing is an unexpected long shot. It's probably about 50-50 at this point with other factors that are currently unpredictable that will sway things.
+1Agreed. Its about 50-50 at this point. The perception that Trump will win is based on largely bogus registered voters polls. Those numbers are likely to drift more towards Biden once more likely voter polls are released and the public actually have a moment to ponder the prospects of another 4 years of Trump in office. He could of course still win, but its definitely not a "long shot" if Biden were to win another term.
It's also true that most polls around this time in an election cycle end up being very close to polls at the time of the election. We're largely hoping the polls are wrong, if we're honest. I can see the argument both:+1
Most of the polls showing either candidate up are still within their margin of error. We currently no nor will we have a definitive front runner between the two. It will be the margins that win this election & they should ultimately trend Biden's way by early fall.
He will still need about plus 3-4 nationally to carry the EC. Hilary beat Trump by 2.1% in 2016 and lost the EC by 74. Biden won the popular by 4.5% in 2020 and barely scraped by with about 160k votes in PA and GA, without which he would've lost. So to win this time, its a pretty sure bet he will need at least 3-4% more popular votes (ideally 4) than Trump.I used to think Biden needed about 4% in the national vote too, but it may be he doesn't need the margin to be that big anymore.
I have seen some argue that with GOP running up the score in Florida, and making inroads in other states such as New York, the returns are dimishing for them.
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It depends, will the election be more like last presidential election, or the midterms?He will still need about plus 3-4 nationally to carry the EC. Hilary beat Trump by 2.1% in 2016 and lost the EC by 74. Biden won the popular by 4.5% in 2020 and barely scraped by with about 160k votes in PA and GA, without which he would've lost. So to win this time, its a pretty sure bet he will need at least 3-4% more popular votes (ideally 4) than Trump.
If we are actually going to look at a more specific stuff, he only needs to win in 3 or 4 battleground states to become president again. In that sense, polls from those states are more important than those from nationally. Obviously, he is not doing well right now in those.He will still need about plus 3-4 nationally to carry the EC. Hilary beat Trump by 2.1% in 2016 and lost the EC by 74. Biden won the popular by 4.5% in 2020 and barely scraped by with about 160k votes in PA and GA, without which he would've lost. So to win this time, its a pretty sure bet he will need at least 3-4% more popular votes (ideally 4) than Trump.
thats true, but either way trump is winning nationally and battleground states. there are no positivesIf we are actually going to look at a more specific stuff, he only needs to win in 3 or 4 battleground states to become president again. In that sense, polls from those states are more important than those from nationally. Obviously, he is not doing well right now in those.
I am not sure why anyone would be looking closely at any other numbers than those in those states at this point in this race.
Not calling that it is positive for Biden right now.thats true, but either way trump is winning nationally and battleground states. there are no positives
National polling numbers also inform his strength in swing states, so the higher they are, better chance he has to win those states. I'm less concerned where he is right now compared to in August and Sep after the conventions and before early voting starts.If we are actually going to look at a more specific stuff, he only needs to win in 3 or 4 battleground states to become president again. In that sense, polls from those states are more important than those from nationally. Obviously, he is not doing well right now in those.
I am not sure why anyone would be looking closely at any other numbers than those in those states at this point in this race.
You are right. Nevertheless is a contest of popularity and this publicity helps as is "the president of all". Pragmatism is the battleground states, yesNot calling that it is positive for Biden right now.
I just find it a bit weird that people are looking at the national polls. There is a reason why these candidates select only a few states to do their campaigns in the election years.
Which is what needs the most from Biden's team in this race. Let's see how it goes.You are right. Nevertheless is a contest of popularity and this publicity helps as is "the president of all". Pragmatism is the battleground states, yes
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Two suspended campaigns receiving 20% of the vote is the focus of the tweet, nothing to do with democrats.Not like it matters, dem party in Florida is a joke, this state is not competitive, it was another uninspiring performance in Florida, i have heard.
Yes, the Dems probably want maga republicans. Read that a democratic superpac even campaigned for Moreno as he was the preferred opponent.Bernie Moreno wins the Ohio primaries.
Its Ohio, so no race is ever easy, but this is likely good news for Brown, as Dolan was polling better than Moreno, in the general.
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No way. This poll makes no sense just like a poll showing Biden winning Wisconsin by 17% four years ago. Trump will never win by that margin, and I doubt that he would even win nationally by 3%.So, after a bunch of national polls showing a tightening race, lot of ties or slight leads to Biden, Selzer comes out and gives Trump a 7 point National lead.
Jesus Christ.
Most Americans do not watch the SOTU address, period, but those who do watch are generally of the party in the White House. For instance, I could t stand to watch Trump’s SOTU addresses. They’ve become increasingly irrelevant and performative.If you listen to experts the state of the union has never had any impact of polls, and is watched by less than 10 percent of the electorate: largely those already engaged and having made up their mind.
I'm less worried about that, and more encouraged that we're starting to see some of the policies and positions emerging. As we've been saying, Biden has good policies and needs to get the electorate aware.
Trump has no policies, and is currently furiously trying to pretend he didn't say last week he'd cut Medicare and medicaid.
Trump has been losing every time he steps up. The 2022 midterms were supposed to be a “red wave”, as the party in power always loses seats in the midterms. Obama lost 63. In contrast, Biden lost 9. https://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/sta...dlost-the-presidents-party-mid-term-elections So even though seats were flipped, it was a very hopeful sign for the Dems.I find it odd that the US posters are pretty much "yeah, it's a toss up right now, but we are not panicking" and posters outside the US are all "AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH!!".
No one would ever accuse me of being an optimist, but, absent a major event (Biden major health issue/kicking the bucket/war/etc.) I am pretty confident Trump is not going to win.
