Cold War against China?

[4bars]

As far as I can tell, Western naval experts on Twitter don't seem too worried about the danger of naval drones. They seem to assess that Western navies are well-equipped and trained for taking out naval drones.

Hopefully we never get to test it. A war US vs China would be terrifying

 

[Cal?]

That China is catching up in every aspect (economy, military, technology) is not new. But in case of Navy, with the new drone technology, I don't know how useful or at least how exposed boats are. We might see billions of dollars exploding with hundreds of people in it by a few hundreds thousands unmanned toys

I don’t think they are catching up.
They have a huge demographic issue that cannot be solved.

 

[4bars]

I don’t think they are catching up.
They have a huge demographic issue that cannot be solved.

We discussed that before @Cal? . I exposed some facts on the semi conductors and i am still waiting for you answer

 

[Cal?]

But thats the thing, china is closing the gap on the chips. I am not saying it, articles saying it.

China was mass producing 14nm in 2022, 7nm in september 2023 and seems is currently starting mass producing the 5nm at a substancially higher cost but nevertheless,

https://www.ft.com/content/b5e0dba3-689f-4d0e-88f6-673ff4452977

just 1 level below that the mass produced 3nm from TSMC and Samsung that started mass producing 1 year and a half in Samsung and 1 year in TSMC. the 14nm was mass produced by

Mass production

14nm TSMC 2014 SMIC 2022
10nm TSCM 2017 SMIC skipped
7nm TSCM 2018 SMIC September 2023
5nm TSCM 2020 SMIC February 2024 (substantially more expensive)
3nm TSCM 2022 SMIC on the works year ???
2nm TSCM delayed to 2026

I understand that the closer they get the more difficult it gets but I call that closing the gap. At this pace, they will surpass US/Korea/Taiwan chips technology before the decade ends

On the weapons I definitely have 0 idea and read nothing about it so I'll take your word you might be right

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...smic?srnd=premium-asia&embedded-checkout=true

https://techhq.com/2024/01/huawei-a...eft the US,rather than a Chinese manufacturer.

Make of that what you want

 

[4bars]

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/arti...smic?srnd=premium-asia&embedded-checkout=true

https://techhq.com/2024/01/huawei-a-teardown-of-the-latest-laptop-shows-a-chip-made-in-taiwan-not-china/#:~:text=Huawei has left the US,rather than a Chinese manufacturer.

Make of that what you want

This are from january 4, my articles were from february, maybe march

So yeah, ill take later news

Despite, aby of these news doesnt align with your comment that china still 20 years away

 

[Cal?]

This are from january 4, my articles were from february, maybe march

So yeah, ill take later news

Despite, aby of these news doesnt align with your comment that china still 20 years away

China are far away from catching up, multiple bottlenecks exists as I mentioned before.

A key issue is that whilst they can manufacture some relatively advanced chips with modifying their existing DUV machines (at lower yield), they won't be getting their hands on any EUV any time soon.

 

[4bars]

China are far away from catching up, multiple bottlenecks exists as I mentioned before.

A key issue is that whilst they can manufacture some relatively advanced chips with modifying their existing DUV machines (at lower yield), they won't be getting their hands on any EUV any time soon.

Not 20 years as you said, nor 10 years. In less than 5 years they will be there

 

[Cal?]

Not 20 years as you said, nor 10 years. In less than 5 years they will be there

You think they are about to manufacture EUV themselves in a few years? Considering they can't even make DUV?

Add the fact that Japan (so friendly with China) has a near total dominance of quite a few key materials in making the most advanced chips.

 

[4bars]

You think they are about to manufacture EUV themselves in a few years? Considering they can't even make DUV?

Add the fact that Japan (so friendly with China) has a near total dominance of quite a few key materials in making the most advanced chips.

Man, i know shit about the industry and im learning a lot thanks to this discussion. So thanks for that

Everywhere i read it says that china is manufacturing DUV chips already (realated to the 7 nm articles i posted) and they are investing on your mentioned EUV. How many years might take? Industrial spionage is a thing and china is quite well known to advance rapidly in many fields. That is why the US is closing the doors to china, they know they are close.

How close? Wont happen tomorrow or next year or the next, but saying that will take them 20 years at least is insane. If we compare technological level from china 2004 vs 2024, the leap is ridiculous

 

[Cal?]

Man, i know shit about the industry and im learning a lot thanks to this discussion. So thanks for that

Everywhere i read it says that china is manufacturing DUV chips already (realated to the 7 nm articles i posted) and they are investing on your mentioned EUV. How many years might take? Industrial spionage is a thing and china is quite well known to advance rapidly in many fields. That is why the US is closing the doors to china, they know they are close.

How close? Wont happen tomorrow or next year or the next, but saying that will take them 20 years at least is insane. If we compare technological level from china 2004 vs 2024, the leap is ridiculous

China is manufacturing 7nm chips using their existing DUV purchased before the ban, they're nowhere close to making those themsevles, never mind the more advanced EUV.

Add to that the fact there are many more chokepoints with material from Japan, etc, I just don't see them being able to catch up in the foreseeable future.

2004 v 2024, most of that period were when China got on with the west and didn't have to operate under a ban, I just don't see them making the same progress in the coming 20 years.

Also I'm not saying they won't be able to make 2 nm eventually, but I just don't see them catching up to whatever the US, Japan, Taiwan will be making by then.

 

[RedDevilQuebecois]

It's very rare that the US wants the other side to know that they are very present.

 

[VorZakone]

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[VorZakone]

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[VorZakone]

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[VorZakone]

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[RedDevilQuebecois]

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Well, well, well.

It takes really something when actual fascists start spying for communists (in name only, but still) just because they hate democracy. I don't think even Tom Clancy could have imagined such a twist, not even in some of his novels in the 1990s.

 

[VorZakone]

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[maniak]

So you're telling that one time a chinese girl flirted with me was just because I live next to the lisbon naval base? Disappointing.

 

[utdalltheway]

It has also witnessed a remarkable number of weddings in recent years between Chinese students and the seamen who work at its naval bases.

How many weddings makes it remarkable? 2? 20?

 

[4bars]

So you're telling that one time a chinese girl flirted with me was just because I live next to the lisbon naval base? Disappointing.

And that is why she was only flirting. She quickly found out that you were not worth the time

 

[RedDevilQuebecois]

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China has been lying about their military expenses as the real number is closer to matching US expenses. Why do you think they're doing that if they don't have any hostile ambitions?

Because you don't put on a condom unless you're gonna feck!

 

[4bars]

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China has been lying about their military expenses as the real number is closer to matching US expenses. Why do you think they're doing that if they don't have any hostile ambitions?

Because you don't put on a condom unless you're gonna feck!

US had been militarily fecking the world without a condom for the last 70 years. China not so much