ANALYSIS: Airline safety performance in 2014
By:
David Learmount
London
Source:
Calendar year 2014 has turned out to be the best 12 months ever for airline safety, according to Ascend, a Flightglobal advisory service. For many this may seem an unexpected result, given the perceptions created by the high-profile losses of two
Malaysia AirlinesBoeing777s and the crash of an
AirAsiaAirbus A320 just before year-end.
Ascend’s director of air safety and insurance, Paul Hayes, reveals that the global airline fatal accident rate in 2014 was one fatal accident per 2.38 million flights. On this basis 2014 was, narrowly, the safest year ever.
Take a look at the accidents and incidents 2014 attached table
The figures exclude the 17 July loss over eastern Ukraine of Malaysia flight MH17, on the grounds that it was shot down by a guided missile and is considered a war risk loss, not an accident. Although doubts exist about the status of missing Malaysia flight MH370 (see accident tables), that incident has been included in the fatal accident rates. If the disappearance were, however, eventually confirmed as the result of a deliberate act by someone on board – as many experts in Malaysia and elsewhere now believe – and if it were therefore excluded from the accident statistics, its absence would make the 2014 figures even more impressive. MH370 was the largest single loss of the year in terms of people presumed dead as a result of the incident.
The previous best airline safety year was 2012, with a fatal accident rate of one per 2.37 million flights, says Hayes. In the other years since 2010, the fatal accident rate was one per 1.91 million flights in 2013, one per 1.4 million in 2011 and one per 1.26 million in 2010. The average for the last five years is now about one fatal accident per 1.75 million flights.
The 2014 Malaysian disasters, however, have twisted perceptions of airline safety, despite 2014 being such a safe year. Ascend’s 2014
Safety Perception Survey starts by quoting an actual newspaper headline fairly representative of media reaction: “As another jet crashes… is it safe to fly?” The study later sums up why this appears to be the perception: “The year 2014 will be remembered for the loss of the two Malaysia Airlines Boeing 777s, resulting in 510 passenger and 27 crew deaths.