Do we really need a new CB, if so who?

Mark Pawelek

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I had to make a centre back thread because there are about 10 threads in the transfer postings currently talking about some CB or other. Better to compare them. I know I've been told meta-threads are evil but I disagree. Last year United (with Spurs) had the tightest defence in the league. So why the rush to sign a new centre back? I'm told Daley Blind is rubbish at CB. The stats say otherwise. Could be the stats lie. Here are some CB stats. It only shows players aged 26 or younger. It includes all in whoscored top 400, or those linked to United. The list is sorted in Rating order.
  • Virgil van Dijk has top CB rating at whoscored. This is his first outstanding season. He was merely good at Celtic.
  • Chris Smalling is #189
  • Daley Blind #213. Do his stats lie? His aerials stat is only 1, which wouldn't even qualify him as a CB candidate for most managers. He's not fast and his passing stat is good but not excellent.
  • Jonny Evans beat both Smalling and Blind, at #155, although, once again, I don't know how (PS% only 75%!)
  • Nicolás Otamendi is in at #41, so rated far higher than United fans put him.
  • Emanuel Mammana and Aymeric Laporte should be in the top 400, but whoscored somehow left them out.
  • Marquinhos, Raphael Varane, Marc Bartra, John Stones don't make the top 400 players. So why the fabulous fees linked with them? They have good passing stats and not so good aerials stats. So not much of an improvement on Daley Blind.
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Yes we need. Blind is not even CB. Manolas i can't say much but i would ok with Laporte, Stones or Varane. Actually i would be ok with Manolas too, he has to be better than Blind. :)
 
We had that tight defense in great part due to our unwillingness to pass forward and take any risks whatsoever. When we had a lead our possession game got a bit messy, as we don't have the midfield to deal with great pressure, nor the pace in defense, nor the outlets out on the flanks, nor the striker to hold the ball up (before Rashford, and now, Zlatan).

The stats can tell many stories. I judge our team somewhat on the fact that we got dumped out of the CL in the group stages and we did not make the top 4, even after having a golden opportunity to freeze City out in a must win game against West Ham.

Yes, we need a new center back. And address the issues in midfield (i.e. lack of absolute top quality) and make sure we have an outlet besides Martial on the left.
 
Of course we do. Also don't use stats to judge center backs.. doesn't work. The problem with our defence is it's very lopsided. Whenever we have the ball, we pass it to Blind to do something with it, while whenever it's a defensive thing or a high ball, Smalling charges out wherever it is to win the header or win the ball back. Drags the defence all over the place because we don't have 2 center backs who can do both sides of the game competently (or mainly the defensive side). Bringing in a center back next to Smalling who can actually handle himself defensively would help a lot as Smalling won't need to charge after every single high ball and let things like Spurs' first goal against us happen, while still being okay on the ball.
 
Yes we do. Quite a few options out there who would improve us a lot, just a matter of getting them. Would absolutely love Varane but I doubt we can convince him to move. Besides the usual suspects like Manolas, Laporte, Stones, etc, Umtiti would be a good option but he's Barca bound it seems.
 
Yes we need a new CB to partner with Smalling.

Blind is average at best, he can play the position because he is an intelligent player that doesn't get caught out of position and his passing ability is ok but if he has to win an aerial duel he is totally lost. Blind is a midfielder that can play LB, the CB experiment LVG took was okish but he isn't a top CB and he'll never be one, he certainly won't do for Mourinho who loves to play with 2 towers at the back.

Possible targets:
  • Manolas
  • Mustafi
  • Stones
  • Koulibaly
  • Laporte
Varane I don't think will happen, hee joined Real because of Zidane, now that he is trainer he surely won't leave.
 
We are desperate for a centre back imo, despite our record last season which was more to do with style rather than great defenders. I would even argue we need two, but thats unlikely. Marquinos seems to be a good option. Not getting game time at PSG so surely will be looking for a move. Seems attainable.
 
Mark Pawelek said:
I had to make a centre back thread because there are about 10 threads in the transfer postings currently talking about some CB or other. Better to compare them. I know I've been told meta-threads are evil but I disagree. Last year United (with Spurs) had the tightest defence in the league. So why the rush to sign a new centre back? I'm told Daley Blind is rubbish at CB. The stats say otherwise. Could be the stats lie. Here are some CB stats. It only shows players aged 26 or younger. It includes all in whoscored top 400, or those linked to United. The list is sorted in Rating order.
  • Virgil van Dijk has top CB rating at whoscored. This is his first outstanding season. He was merely good at Celtic.
  • Chris Smalling is #189
  • Daley Blind #213. Do his state lie? His aerials stat is only 1, which wouldn't even qualify him as a CB candidate for most managers. He's not fast and his passing stat is good but not excellent.
  • Jonny Evans beat both Smalling and Blind, at #155, although, once again, I don't know how (PS% only 75%!)
  • Nicolás Otamendi is in at #41, so rated far higher than United fans put him.
  • Emanuel Mammana and Aymeric Laporte should be in the top 400, but whoscored somehow left them out.
  • Marquinhos, Raphael Varane, Marc Bartra, John Stones don't make the top 400 players. So why the fabulous fees linked with them? They have good passing stats and not so good aerials stats. So not much of an improvement on Daley Blind.
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Interesting table. Do you mind adding a legend to the table? Would make it easier for people who aren't immediately aware of the terms to understand your analysis.
 
We need at least 1.

We played horrible, low risk defensive football all season and still conceded 35 goals. Mourinho's best Chelsea team conceded 15. For 4 seasons running from 06/07 to 09/10 we conceded less than 30 goals, Chelsea and Liverpool were also in the 20s for most of these seasons.

Our defence is not great. It's merely better than average in a league where most defences are pants. We (and the rest of the teams in England) need to get back to that standard if we're serious about competing with the best teams in Europe.
 
CB, probably more than any other position in the world, relies on a partnership. I don't really give a feck who we sign to play there, or even if we don't, as long as they go on to form a good understanding with Smalling.
 
septic said:
Because the stats are clearly crap
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Rather than say the stats are crap, my belief is that we've just used the wrong criteria to select the top 400 to see the defenders listed there.

Consider this: whoscored have, as do most football fans, a bias towards attacking players more than defenders. I'd wager that out of 400, a significant number are forwards/wingers. Selecting the top 400 and indicating that the players mentioned aren't there is just sampling error.

Also, most of the players mentioned have an intangible aspect, often described as potential, which increases their value over and beyond measurable value.

If the OP could update the table to normalize the data, I think this would make for a brilliant read/analysis.

For example, we have Aerials won as a column. However what I'd be interested to see, is Aerial won % (Aerials won/ Aerials attempted). We could also attempt to create a weighted average from the table, by scoring the nature of the team the defenders play in. Case in point, a team that sits back would have a defender making more tackles, winning more headers and generally being rated better. A barca defender,say, would not be compared favorably, in this case.

@Mark Pawelek , is it possible to increase the number of parameters in your table? We'd have a case of Type I error if we were to analyze the data in its current form.
 
Anyone but Rojo and Bartra. Including bringing Prunier out of retirement.
 
We will definitely get a new defender, Mourinho will not go into season with Smalling and Blind as his main pairing.
 
I wouldn't freak out if Blind was a starting center half next season.

I don't know that he would do as well without as much possession to protect him. He's probably not part of the best defense United could put together, but he's done pretty well. He hasn't been exposed physically the way we feared he could have been.
 
Who is this Eric Bailly we are being linked too?
 
Apparently Dragovic is available this summer. He was previously linked with Dortmund but that may not happen if they just signed Bartra.
 
Summit said:
Who is this Eric Bailly we are being linked too?
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CB plays for Villarreal. 22 years old, strong and powerful unit. Has played at RB. First teamer for Villarreal this season and for some of last. Strong in the air, good passer but has been prone to being rash at times.
 
RedSky said:
CB plays for Villarreal. 22 years old, strong and powerful unit. Has played at RB. First teamer for Villarreal this season and for some of last. Strong in the air, good passer but has been prone to being rash at times.
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Just watch some clips of him. You describe him well, but I can see what you mean about being rash. He goes all in on challenges with force and I can see it would come off as rash of he doesn't get it right.
 
Summit said:
Just watch some clips of him. You describe him well, but I can see what you mean about being rash. He goes all in on challenges with force and I can see it would come off as rash of he doesn't get it right.
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Yeah, he's been getting better though. He was motm for me against Liverpool and in the 2nd leg he wasn't playing and they fell apart at the back. He's going to be a very, very good player.
 
I'd take any of Marquinhos, Laporte, Manolas, Rudiger, Varane, Koulibaly and Stones. All generally strong and fast, and a few of them are decent ball players too.
 
Mark Pawelek said:
Daley Blind #213. Do his stats lie? His aerials stat is only 1, which wouldn't even qualify him as a CB candidate for most managers. He's not fast and his passing stat is good but not excellent.
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I'm not sure what you mean by the above. The individual stats in the table are surely correct, but the ranking and how they came up with that ranking is very questionable; and I'm not sure it helps us compare players in any meaningful way, certainly without an explanation of how the ranking was arrived at. E.g. is the player's height part of that ranking, and if so what degree of importance is it given versus other statistics?

You've probably got two threads in one here - the first being a rather banal one about whether we need a new centre back/who, and then a second completely different thread about the interpretation of football statistics, and how they might be valuable in selecting players (maybe compared with some other contrasting sport where the use of stats is more widespread, like baseball). I think the second thread is more interesting than the first, but it would need a lot more info, such as how the ranking is determined and what some of those acronyms mean.
 
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We should sign 2. Don't want to be an injury away from seeing Jones or Rojo playing
 
After the run around Everton gave Chelsea last year, you just knew Stones wasnt ever on the list. Marquinhos seems like a player who wouldn't do well here.
 
RedStarUnited said:
After the run around Everton gave Chelsea last year, you just knew Stones wasnt ever on the list. Marquinhos seems like a player who wouldn't do well here.
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would have been a horrible fee, probably 45-50m for a guy a lot of us don't really rate for his defending!
Not great for...a defender!
 
We really need one. I won't say we need one if Jones can be guaranteed fit the whole season which is very unlikely.
Blind had a good season as a centre back but that was thanks to LVG's control football. He wanted to keep the majority of possession and create something from the back and Blind is suit for that role. And thanks to that we are struggling to create chances. What if we play different football? Obviously we will play differently under Mourinho. Blind is just not a centre back IMO.
We do have the likes of Tuanzebe, Mensah and Williams who can play as a centre backs but they are still raw and unproven. Is Mourinho going to trust those inexperience youngsters for his starting eleven backfour next season? It will be too risky IMO.
 
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