Evan Ferguson - Top Irish Prospect
- Thread starter Pogue Mahone
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In the latest episode of the United Hour Podcast, Nik @Rood and Imran @Annihilate Now! start with the good news by celebrating Manchester United Women's emphatic FA Cup win over Spurs at Wembley and the future of manager Marc Skinner.
Then it's the bad news and the ever worsening form of our Men with losses to Arsenal and Palace.
Finally the main debate - ETH Out now or keep him until the end of the season - if not longer. Are you Team Nik or Team Imran?
Someone on the previous page said Ivan Toney is still ahead of him. But Ferguson has been scoring at a better rate from open play in the PL for Brighton than Toney managed in even the best season of his entire career, which occurred when he was in League One. When you just look at both player's performances in PL instead, Ferguson has so far returned at over twice Toney's rate. And that's backed by the underlying stats too, with Ferguson's NPxG per 90 in the PL being twice Toney's.
It's hard to stress enough the degree to which what Ferguson has done in the league so far at 18 suggests massive potential.
It's hard to stress enough the degree to which what Ferguson has done in the league so far at 18 suggests massive potential.
My point was that's not even enough to enter talks. Strikers are the hottest, rarest commodity of all, let alone teen ones who are expected to go stratospheric... who are already in the PL.
The Osimhen numbers that were bandied about are a roundabouts what you're looking at, even if based on incentives.
If he has a true breakout season, there'll be less than 10 clubs in Europe who can enter talks.
Me. Don't get me wrong he's good for an 18 year old. But an 18 year old is not guaranteed to be a great striker.
From what I've seen of him:
- Great shot
- Decent movement
- Decent link up play
- Above average finish
Stats are stats but often affected by a lot of factors not taken into account (e.g.Sanchos Dortmund stats were skewed by a lot of things). For me Toney is a better player currently, and it's not even really close. Could Ferguson become better? Sure, but that remains to be seen.
I would be very cautious of anything from Brighton, the players and managers prosper from a well oiled infrastructure and system from top to bottom and question marks hang over players and managers when they have moved on from the club for supposedly greener grass
I am guessing he is the first player Brighton will sell if they get a chance. He is absolutely not the slick passer that they demand of their players. Even his hatrick was a long range shots to a team that usually has good movement with the ball.
I am not saying he is a bad player, he is a terrific prospect and if he can keep it up, nothing like it, but he wont be starting a lot of games for BHA
I am not saying he is a bad player, he is a terrific prospect and if he can keep it up, nothing like it, but he wont be starting a lot of games for BHA
Why is he worth it? How many 18 year olds do you know who look and play like fully grown men and can hold their own the PL? Let alone score hattricks and lead the line on their own.
I believe we signed Rooney after he made over 60 appearances for Everton and scored a meagre 15 goals. Hardly a great couple of seasons is it? But you knew he had something. Should we have waited to see if he fulfilled his potential? Maybe let him join Newcastle first then make a bid in a couple of years when it was beyond doubt?
When players like this come along you sign them if you can, you don't wait around to see if they become an Mbappe. You think we're first choice if City, Madrid, Barcelona, Bayern etc come knocking? Look at where Bellingham is right now, you probably thought the same when we were trying to sign him at the age of 16.
We can feck around all we want with players like Mount, DVB, Sancho, Antony etc but none of them have what the likes of this lad has.
200m Chelsea bid incoming. We fecked up on Haaland. Don’t let this kid go anywhere to our rivals. Regardless of Rasmus. We should have both!
Wonder who’s gonna sign him… all the top teams except maybe Arsenal have all got ST for the next few years.
Depends when he leaves really. He could opt stay at Brighton for years until the right move comes along.
If Qatar take over prior to next summer we should do everything we can to bring him in. United have always had several strikers.
Exactly.
It's easy to say "it's just a tap in" but it's about being in the right place at the right time. And yes it's possible to miss those chances.
Bellinghams winner at the weekend was a tap in and people are saying he's awesome.
How often does Martial get tap ins? They all count. A tap in is worth the same as a 40 yard screamer.
I don't think he has the nailed on potential of a Rooney or Mbappe but he definitely has the potential of Lewandowski or Kane.
What's good about him is that he has a bit of everything. Very good in the air also. Good link up play.
Anyway, it's a moot point as I don't think we'll be singing him anytime soon unless Højlund turns out to be terrible and we've to sell him on again.
I'm just happy as an Irish person that we've something to get excited about. We haven't had a decent striker since Robbie Keane really.
He'll have plenty of games this season so we'll know more about him by the end of the season.
I think he'll end up on about 20 goals in all comps.
There's a shortage of top level strikers so there'll definitely be bids on him and it'll just depend on what Brighton are willing to accept.
He's probably worth 70 to 80m now, by next summer it could be 100m.
Arsenal, Spurs, Real Madrid, Chelsea, Barcelona all need strikers.
I'm not saying he's definitely at their level, just saying there's a shortage.
He's absolutely not worth 100m, but Tony Bloom won't open discussions for anything less. He's young, high potential and is a striker, there aren't many decent strikers around. Bloom knows there's a few teams who can easily cough up 100m.
His value is probably more like 60 or 70m but it would take at least 100m to buy him. I know that's a contradiction.
If he has another good season, maybe with 20 goals in all comps, his value is pushing 100m.
We should have signed him. We were linked to him most of the first half of the Summer and we always needed two incoming strikers. Hojlund isn't enough because Martial is always injured and not Ferguson's level, anyway
Being bankrupt and run by morons sucks. Next time we can sign him he will cost over 100M and be unattainable
Being bankrupt and run by morons sucks. Next time we can sign him he will cost over 100M and be unattainable
@Fortitude is saying Brighton wouldn't even answer the phone for 100mil
Said it before a few weeks ago there's the PL tax as well. A player moving from a "lesser" pl team to another always costs more then a foreign counterpart that is equally as good and talented.
Plus Brighton have already made net €160m+ in transfers over the last two seasons, so they're presumably in particularly good health financially. With Ferguson also contracted until June 2028, there's absolutely zero pressure on them to sell any time soon.
£100m?
He's worth over £200m and it will probably take £250m for Brighton to sell.
He's currently the best teenage striker in the world and it isn't even close.
Brighton don't need to sell as he's just signed a contract until 2028 and taken Chelsea to the cleaners.
He's worth over £200m and it will probably take £250m for Brighton to sell.
He's currently the best teenage striker in the world and it isn't even close.
Brighton don't need to sell as he's just signed a contract until 2028 and taken Chelsea to the cleaners.
I can't tell if you're being facetious or not.
They don't need to sell and it doesn't appear he wants to leave anytime soon.
Brighton are too smart to accept anything less than £200m when all signs point to him being to one of the world's top strikers.
Even I as an Albion fan find that excessive. I agree though that the club have no intention of selling, and an offer in excess of £100m would be required to engage in negotiations.
£250m would buy Brighton.
Oh yeah, @Idxomer corrected me and I agree with you. If he has the kind of season we’re talking about here, it’ll be a very interesting summer for Brighton.
See above.
Probably worth over 100 million in this ridiculous market.
A fantastic talent to work with. Has the physical dimensions as a striker, makes the right runs, positioning, can finish in all manner of ways. Not the absolute quickest but if you have the right movements then it doesn't matter so much. He can be an absolute textbook number 9.
Let's be honest he had a fair bit of luck yesterday but he's constantly doing the right things to earn a bit of that luck. I was thinking at the start of the season he should aim for 15 league goals. No reason whatsoever he shouldn't be able to do that.
A fantastic talent to work with. Has the physical dimensions as a striker, makes the right runs, positioning, can finish in all manner of ways. Not the absolute quickest but if you have the right movements then it doesn't matter so much. He can be an absolute textbook number 9.
Let's be honest he had a fair bit of luck yesterday but he's constantly doing the right things to earn a bit of that luck. I was thinking at the start of the season he should aim for 15 league goals. No reason whatsoever he shouldn't be able to do that.
Some of you are clueless.
If Harry Kane is worth £90m at 30 years old then an 18 year old with a better goals and assists record per 90 minutes in a Premier League than him is going to be worth £200m+.
If Harry Kane is worth £90m at 30 years old then an 18 year old with a better goals and assists record per 90 minutes in a Premier League than him is going to be worth £200m+.
It wouldn’t take £250 million to sell him, don’t be ridiculous. There are only 2 transfers in history over £120 million, one was a freak Qatar transfer power play that only one player has been within £70 million and the other was arguably the best player of his generation.
Kanes guaranteed quality.
Ferguson had one good half season. Lots of players have a good season and thats it.
Irish here too, very happy to have him. There is a few Irish players playing at a decent level now which is encouraging. As for his price, I think he is minimum £100m now. Caicedo went for £115 and is a midfielder. As you mentioned, consistent goal scoring strikers are a rare commodity, much less so than midfielders. Plus, Brighton don’t bend over for anyone.
Caceido, a midfielder, was sold for +100m for one good season.
If Ferguson can scored around 15+ goals this season he wont go for less than 150m. With him, you're paying premium for potential, like any other young players are judged
We badly need some quality in midfield though. We're sorted for CBs and GK and now a striker for 10 years at least. Full backs and wing backs are needed also.
But we've the spine of a decent team.
Judging by the players who have left, I think you're right.
He's already scored 4 this season and will get shitloads of chances in that Brighton team.
You can’t have the spine of a decent team without a good centre midfielder. Fingers crossed one emerges soon.
Josh Cullen is decent.
I'm hopeful of Smallbone.
Mbappe was sold £150m 6 years ago and Ferguson is far more proven in a tougher league.
He's had half a season. He's worth about 80-90m.
He's too talented to be wasting his international career with Ireland. He should apply to FIFA to get special dispensation and switch to England. It's only fair on the lad.