Geopolitics

Red Dreams said:
And the peace will stop that.
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So you are then appeasing a dictator commiting genocide, a dictator that does not believe Ukraine should exist.

So Ukraine is split in half, Russia controls donbas does it keep Kherson?
So the millions of people in these areas now have to accept Russian control, despite considerable portions not wanting that prior to the war let alone after what is most certainly genocide.

Russia get rewarded, Ukraine get shafted. Peace begins, then Russia decides it likes the thought of Kharkiv & Odesa. Couple of false flags justifies it and the war continues once more..

No, Russia need to piss off back to their own borders. That simple.
 
Stactix said:
So you are then appeasing a dictator commiting genocide, a dictator that does not believe Ukraine should exist.

So Ukraine is split in half, Russia controls donbas does it keep Kherson?
So the millions of people in these areas now have to accept Russian control, despite considerable portions not wanting that prior to the war let alone after what is most certainly genocide.

Russia get rewarded, Ukraine get shafted. Peace begins, then Russia decides it likes the thought of Kharkiv & Odesa. Couple of false flags justifies it and the war continues once more..

No, Russia need to piss off back to their own borders. That simple.
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Saving lives is the reward.
 
Stactix said:
So you are then appeasing a dictator commiting genocide, a dictator that does not believe Ukraine should exist.

So Ukraine is split in half, Russia controls donbas does it keep Kherson?
So the millions of people in these areas now have to accept Russian control, despite considerable portions not wanting that prior to the war let alone after what is most certainly genocide.

Russia get rewarded, Ukraine get shafted. Peace begins, then Russia decides it likes the thought of Kharkiv & Odesa. Couple of false flags justifies it and the war continues once more..

No, Russia need to piss off back to their own borders. That simple.
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Indeed. Its basically a red carpet invitation for Putin to progress into invading Europe.
 
Red Dreams said:
Saving lives is the reward.
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How?

First, Putin has stated that Ukraine has no right to exist. How does splitting Ukraine into two states change that?

Second, there is no social division between eastern and western Ukraine that suggests splitting the country in two. Where would you draw the border? At the Dniepro? What's your justification for putting Kharkiv with the Donbas rather than Kyiv? You can state the language division, but language isn't necessarily what builds unity or identity, or the inverse. It's too simplistic, especially since everything that's happening to Ukraine is currently drawing its regions much closer together.

Third, where does this put the Donbas anyway? Are you suggesting a division into three? (west, east, Donbas) Or are you putting the Donbas with the east? If so, are you expecting Russia to agree to let go of the Donbas so it can join the new country of East Ukraine?

Fourth, if all the works, why would anyone expect Russia to leave the country alone, and not attack and conquer East Ukraine first, and West Ukraine a few years after?

Finally, it's all very nice to blame people for confusing loyalty to their country with loyalty to their govenrment, but how does splitting up the country fix that?

I just don't see how what you're proposing solves anything. It seems like something random you'd impose upon Ukraine, akin to how European colonial powers carved up Africa and the Middle East. I don't think anyone would call that a success story.
 
Raoul said:
Yes. We know this because he has already ignored previous agreements (Budapest 94, Minsk 2015 etc).
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Do we then keep fighting ?
We are sure Russia will return to pre invasion borders?

EDIT:

My point is we need to try to negotiate for peace. Not to be held hostage by the past.
Human life is worth the effort.

What I suggested may not be the ideal solution.
But we must try.
 
Red Dreams said:
Do we then keep fighting ?
We are sure Russia will return to pre invasion borders?

EDIT:

My point is we need to try to negotiate for peace. Not to be held hostage by the past.
Human life is worth the effort.

What I suggested may not be the ideal solution.
But we must try.
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Putin has shown zero inclination to negotiate. His demands involve the wholesale dismantling of a democratic nation.

If there was any indication the Putin regime were serious about peace I would support negotiations wholeheartedly.

In the event we are stuck in a zero sum game with a dictator who has violated the sovereignty of a number of nations, including the UK, and who wants to rebuild an empire.

If Western Europe is serious about democracy, we arm Ukraine and respect their sovereignty. If Ukraine wants a negotiated peace, we support them. We don't dismember them in the hope that rewarding a dictator will end well.
 
Red Dreams said:
What I suggested may not be the ideal solution.
But we must try.
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I'd nominate Macron to lead this effort since he has been in regular communication with Putin

merlin_23352849_dd45e7f2-c2f0-4fee-9ae5-e1e51052cca0-superJumbo.jpg
 
Chamberlain gets a lot of stick, and rightly so, but Hitler was ready to start a world war over the Sudetanland and blinked first.

The extra year Chamberlain bought the UK allowed us to develop radar and also modernised our air force further, crucial factors in 1940.

I don't blame him for appeasement. He was too old to fight in 14-18 and lost close family members, vowing never to have that happen again.
 
Frosty said:
Chamberlain gets a lot of stick, and rightly so, but Hitler was ready to start a world war over the Sudetanland and blinked first.

The extra year Chamberlain bought the UK allowed us to develop radar and also modernised our air force further, crucial factors in 1940.

I don't blame him for appeasement. He was too old to fight in 14-18 and lost close family members, vowing never to have that happen again.
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Have you seen Munich - The Edge of War ? Good film on Netflix now. Jeremy Irons as Chamberlain is fantastic.

 
Raoul said:
Have you seen Munich - The Edge of War ? Good film on Netflix now. Jeremy Irons as Chamberlain is fantastic.

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Yeah, it's nice. Everything the main characters do is fiction (from what I read), but it's a good film.

It actually supports what @Frosty was saying just above though: that the extra year Chamberlain bought helped the UK get ready for the war, and that Chamberlain had that in mind when creating the agreement.
 
Cheimoon said:
Yeah, it's nice. Everything the main characters do is fiction (from what I read), but it's a good film.

It actually supports what @Frosty was saying just above though: that the extra year Chamberlain bought helped the UK get ready for the war, and that Chamberlain had that in mind when creating the agreement.
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Raoul said:
Have you seen Munich - The Edge of War ? Good film on Netflix now. Jeremy Irons as Chamberlain is fantastic.

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I did see the film - as said, a good but fictional portrayal.

There's a great documentary by David Reynolds on the Munich crisis which is worth a watch:



Also as good as Jeremy Irons is as an actor, I still cannot get past the fact he was concerned that legalising same-sex marriage in the UK would mean he could marry his son.
 
Frosty said:
I did see the film - as said, a good but fictional portrayal.

There's a great documentary by David Reynolds on the Munich crisis which is worth a watch:



Also as good as Jeremy Irons is as an actor, I still cannot get past the fact he was concerned that legalising same-sex marriage in the UK would mean he could marry his son.
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I didn't know about the Jeremy Irons bit. What a weirdo. Still a very good actor though.
 
Red Dreams said:
Do we then keep fighting ?
We are sure Russia will return to pre invasion borders?

EDIT:

My point is we need to try to negotiate for peace. Not to be held hostage by the past.
Human life is worth the effort.

What I suggested may not be the ideal solution.
But we must try.
Click to expand...
Peace would we great but it has to be a stable peace. Better a permanent peace on Ukrainian terms than a temporary one on Russian terms.
 
Gehrman said:
Well the 2nd Iraq war for instance elicited the greatest anti war protests in history and that was yeah I know Bush was reelected, but the opposition to the Iraq war was substancial and notable. A bit like Vietnam.
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Public opinions translates into elections, both Bush and Blair were reelected. A disgrace of the people of these countries.
 
Giggsyking said:
Public opinions translates into elections, both Bush and Blair were reelected. A disgrace of the people of these countries.
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The problem with this is that the parties in opposition at the time of the election both supported the war too, and those parties were the alternative at those re-elections.

In fact, the Tories were far more in support of the war than Labour was. If the Tories had voted against the war, the motion would not have been carried and the UK would not have been involved (such was the scale of the Labour rebellion): https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/British_Parliamentary_approval_for_the_invasion_of_Iraq

If the UK had defeated Blair and elected a Tory Government in 2005, we would have rewarded a party for their unanimous support of the war.
 
Red Dreams said:
Do we then keep fighting ?
We are sure Russia will return to pre invasion borders?

EDIT:

My point is we need to try to negotiate for peace. Not to be held hostage by the past.
Human life is worth the effort.

What I suggested may not be the ideal solution.
But we must try.
Click to expand...

Who is "we"? Are you doing any fighting yourself? If you are, you can give up.

But let the Ukrainians decide if they will give up or not. It not for you to decide for them.
 
RedDevilQuebecois said:
Plenty of deluded fools according to that article. You should also read the comments section on articles from CNN International on Facebook and who posts them. There's no need for Russian bots nor Republicans anymore to parrot the narrative from the Kremlin.

For people to hold anti-western views because of past colonialism is one thing, but to be burying heads in the sand in front of evidence in broad daylight is another. What has Russia or the Soviet Union done to make Africa a better place, seriously? I haven't seen any major Russian investment that would improve the agricultural industry nor support any irrigation project that would considerably increase the size of cultivable lands, both of which are seen in the likes of Egypt and other countries in the Arabian peninsula for the last couple of decades. The current grain shortage is because of the Kremlin openly backstabbing everyone, especially nations that heavily depend on Ukrainian and Russian grain.
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I saw photos of protestors in DRC holding posters of “Putin - please help us”. It’s weird to see black Africans cheering Europe’s last empire which is built on white supremacism and has caused a massive spike in food prizes. As @TMDaines says, it must be truly grim in DRC.
 
The Firestarter said:
Next Poland, it was part of the Empire at some point...
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The sheer delusion in megalomania and longing for the past is just ridiculous with those guys. Go figure what Russian and Chinese politicians drink or smoke these days because that's the very same mindset when it comes to hawkishness regarding disputed lands.

MoskvaRed said:
I saw photos of protestors in DRC holding posters of “Putin - please help us”. It’s weird to see black Africans cheering Europe’s last empire which is built on white supremacism and has caused a massive spike in food prizes. As @TMDaines says, it must be truly grim in DRC.
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Yep, it's very weird even though the picture is clear.
 
MoskvaRed said:
I saw photos of protestors in DRC holding posters of “Putin - please help us”. It’s weird to see black Africans cheering Europe’s last empire which is built on white supremacism and has caused a massive spike in food prizes. As @TMDaines says, it must be truly grim in DRC.
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It's not just that the situation is bad though. Countries all over Africa, and no doubt the Middle East too, mistrust the west after centuries of (largely ongoing) exploitation. They haven't yet seen how they're going to be / getting exploited by the likes of China and Russia whereas they've had centuries for the penny to drop with Europe and the US.
 
TwoSheds said:
It's not just that the situation is bad though. Countries all over Africa, and no doubt the Middle East too, mistrust the west after centuries of (largely ongoing) exploitation. They haven't yet seen how they're going to be / getting exploited by the likes of China and Russia whereas they've had centuries for the penny to drop with Europe and the US.
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Yes, fair point. I understand the Chinese attraction (new infrastructure) but I’m not sure what Russia brings to the party other than murderous mercenaries like in Mali.
 
MoskvaRed said:
Yes, fair point. I understand the Chinese attraction (new infrastructure) but I’m not sure what Russia brings to the party other than murderous mercenaries like in Mali.
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Disinformation mainly. Criticising and standing up to the west is always going to make you popular until they realise you're as bad or worse.
 
TwoSheds said:
Disinformation mainly. Criticising and standing up to the west is always going to make you popular until they realise you're as bad or worse.
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It's also worth noting that, according to Wiki, "Only eleven African states are listed as 'free' under the Freedom Index; Botswana, Mauritius, Cape Verde, Senegal, Tunisia, Ghana, Nigeria, São Tomé and Príncipe, Namibia, South Africa, and Benin."

That's 11 out of 54 nations in Africa, which means that a big majority of African governments don't much care about Russia's attacks on freedom and democracy, and some may even support those attacks.
 
I don't think bashing African countries and its citizens that may have pro-Russian views is the right way to go for this thread. At the end of the day, these people have a fraction of the resources and opportunities available to us in the West (not to mention the abuse perpetrated on the continent by European countries). In many respects, these folks are victims too and are just flocking to the place where they are finding opportunities. The way to change this is to extend more support to these countries.
 
RedDevilQuebecois said:
Plenty of deluded fools according to that article. You should also read the comments section on articles from CNN International on Facebook and who posts them. There's no need for Russian bots nor Republicans anymore to parrot the narrative from the Kremlin.

For people to hold anti-western views because of past colonialism is one thing, but to be burying heads in the sand in front of evidence in broad daylight is another. What has Russia or the Soviet Union done to make Africa a better place, seriously? I haven't seen any major Russian investment that would improve the agricultural industry nor support any irrigation project that would considerably increase the size of cultivable lands, both of which are seen in the likes of Egypt and other countries in the Arabian peninsula for the last couple of decades. The current grain shortage is because of the Kremlin openly backstabbing everyone, especially nations that heavily depend on Ukrainian and Russian grain.
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Why are you talking about delusions or colonialism? People typically support those who support them. This is the reason we're helping Saudi Arabia do war crimes to the Yemeni, because the Saudis have stuff we want while the Yemenis don't. Russia has been investing in several African nations. Economically, diplomatically, and with targeted propaganda.

You're talking about Egypt and Arabs. This guy is not from Egypt or the Arabian peninsula. Which Western university competed for his enrollment? What has Europe ever done for the DRC generally or this guy specifically?
 
MoskvaRed said:
I saw photos of protestors in DRC holding posters of “Putin - please help us”. It’s weird to see black Africans cheering Europe’s last empire which is built on white supremacism and has caused a massive spike in food prizes. As @TMDaines says, it must be truly grim in DRC.
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Hasn't someone posted a while back a video about this? Maybe it was the Central African Republic, where the russians go all in propaganda, including blockbuster movies.
 
sport2793 said:
I don't think bashing African countries and its citizens that may have pro-Russian views is the right way to go for this thread. At the end of the day, these people have a fraction of the resources and opportunities available to us in the West (not to mention the abuse perpetrated on the continent by European countries). In many respects, these folks are victims too and are just flocking to the place where they are finding opportunities. The way to change this is to extend more support to these countries.
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I don't know if it's the case nowadays, but I've seen angolan school books from the 90s that praise russia for the help they gave them in the independence war. I'm not surprised this created some kind of historical sympathy for russia in angola or other african countries. Of course they helped because it was in their interest to have these proxy wars, but in populations that are not very well informed this might be enough.
 
sport2793 said:
I don't think bashing African countries and its citizens that may have pro-Russian views is the right way to go for this thread. At the end of the day, these people have a fraction of the resources and opportunities available to us in the West (not to mention the abuse perpetrated on the continent by European countries). In many respects, these folks are victims too and are just flocking to the place where they are finding opportunities. The way to change this is to extend more support to these countries.
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I am not sure about Africa but Russia has plenty of historical goodwill in many developing countries including mine. They provided scholarships, built libraries, factories and highways, and funded communist movements in largely unequal societies. Our earliest engineers, doctors, and politicians all studied in Russia. Governments could maneuver around the influence of the US and the Soviet Block and get aid from both parties. The decline of Soviet Union and rise of the EU and the US has disturbed the equation. People (including many posters here) fail to understand that both the EU and the US are deeply unpopular in many developing countries, especially in Africa and Asia not simply because of their hypocrisy but the way they have shaped the politics and policies within developing countries. In the name of development, donors and donor agencies have destroyed historical institutions (a lot of times for good but not for traditionalists), hollowed out governments, and empowered unpopular political fringes. All the while, the Chinese foreign aid has been mostly apolitical. They pledge on infrastructure, build highways, hospitals and that's just about it. The Chinese narrative is now changing because of the involvement of Chinese private sector in natural resource exploitation but this is a very recent phenomenon.
 
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