So, elections coming up in 5 months and given there was reasonable interest in the thread last time, I thought I`d create one again (Merkel added for clickbait). Overall information copied from the OP from 4 years ago:
Last week, Merkels party, the CDU/CSU finally ended their internal battle for candidate for chancellor, with Markus Söder, minister of Bavaria, making room for Armin Laschet, current minister of North Rhine-Westphalia.
Around the same time (and for the first time in their history), the Greens have declared a candidate for chancellor, Annalena Baerbock.
The Social Democrats, SPD, have already decided a while back to go with Olaf Scholz, current vice-chancellor and minister of finance, as their candidate.
Compared to 4 years ago, the situation has changed a bit:
CDU/CSU:
Have droped off a cliff in recent months, with polls going as low as mid 20%. With Merkel on her way out they kind of failed to get a suitable successor in line early enough, instead it went to quite a dirty battle (for German standards) between Laschet and Söder. But more importantly, while Germany had done comparetively well in the first lockdown, the situation since autumn has been a shambles with constant going back and fourth and disagreements between federal states and the government. Laschet, who has mostly had more of an anti-lockdown stance has looked increasingly incompetent, it will be interesting to see if he can recover from that image. Still, of all parties the CDU/CSU are the deepest ingrained in German society so I reckon they will recover in the upcoming months.
SPD:
Well, being the junior coalition partner for 3 of Merkels 4 governments has left their mark. With their new party leadership they`ve moved more to the left as a response to the failed years of attempting to get voters from the center right, yet that doesn`t seem to have moved the needle at all. Their traditional voting base seems to have dissolved with having lost voters to parties of all sorts. They`re hovering at 15% right now, if they get even 20% it would be a success...which says it all for a party that was at around 40% at the turn of the century.
The Greens:
Have gained a lot of momentum in the last couple of years, similar to many Green parties around Europe. They`ve had a solid base for years, always getting around 10% and being involved in various state governments but since 2018 they`ve been really strong, polling above 20% right now. Their candidate, Baerbock is quite young and slightly inexperienced, however for exact these reasons also hard to attack and overall viewed pretty positive right now. Their voters base is now pretty broad, from young people to upper middle class to even conservative old people. Everything looks excellent right now for them but there are still a few months left.
FDP:
Well, I checked what I wrote last time and it seems nothing has changed. After famously leaving the talks for a Jamaica coalition (With CDU/CSU and Greens) after 2017s election they left a bit off a bad taste in everyone`s mouth. After their disaster from 2013 they seem to have consolidated again but neither the Fridays for future movement nor the corona pandemic has helped their championing of economic liberalism. However, they also haven`t really dropped in polling, still at around 10%. This election seems to be a bit make or break for Christian Lindner, who has been the partys face for quite a while now.
AfD:
Similar to the FDP not much seems to have changed for them. Their projected rise 5-7 years ago has not happened and they seem to have levelled out at around 10%. Internally, they`ve had quite a lot of fights on leadership and various party exclusions. They didn`t dare to go full covid denial but they`re definitely the party that has the most covidiots in their lines, with politicians speaking at anti lockdown demonstrations etc. However, it doesn`t seem to have helped them in their polling.Depending on events a right wing boost is always possible but it seems very unlikely that they get close to something like 15%.
The Left:
Same again, not much changed. I feel like they lost their momentum of the early 2010 years where they gained attraction for being a very leftist alternative to the SPD and offering different perspective mostly on foreign policy, interventionism and NATO. They`re around 5-10% so will get in.
Possible coalitions:
CDU/SPD (The grand coalition) - Current government and 3 of the last 4 governments were a grand coalition. However extremely unlikely this time, not only because they might not even get enough votes (unthinkable a decade ago) but because no one wants a grand coalition anymore.
CDU/Greens: Reasonably realistic, the Union would be happy to go that way, Greens would probably go along. Probably depends a lot on how the CDU/CSU perform in the election. If Greens get actually more votes than the CDU/CSU (unlikely) things could get spicy.
Greens/SPD/FDP: Traffic light coalition. Could happen but quite a few obstacles. With the Greens most likely getting the most votes, it`d be interesting to see how SPD and FDP would deal with having to accept a green chancellor. After leaving coalition talks last time the FDP would be under alot pressure this time, however economically they`re quite far apart from SPD and Greens.
CDU/FDP/Greens - The Jamaica coalition. After coalition talks failed in 2017 I don`t really see it as a realistic option, Greens and CDU will most likely have enough votes to just govern themselves.
Greens/SPD/The Left - Could it finally happen? The three parties on the left in a coalition - a lot of people would`ve liked to see that coalition around 2013 but I feel that train has somehow passed. At least there`s no talk around it now and it`s doubtful they even would get enough seats.
Sooo, definitely feels the most interesting election in a while, I`m happy that CDU/CSU picked Laschet over Söder as I view the latter as far more dangerous than Laschet who is a straight up moron. Would love to see the CDU/CSU continue their meltdown for the next months but I somehow don`t believe it, however, I genuinely believe Laschet is proper unpopular amongst the population. Greens in government would be great but it`ll put a lot of pressure on them to perform, last time they were in government was 1998-2005 as junior partner and expectations this time will be higher.
Last week, Merkels party, the CDU/CSU finally ended their internal battle for candidate for chancellor, with Markus Söder, minister of Bavaria, making room for Armin Laschet, current minister of North Rhine-Westphalia.
Around the same time (and for the first time in their history), the Greens have declared a candidate for chancellor, Annalena Baerbock.
The Social Democrats, SPD, have already decided a while back to go with Olaf Scholz, current vice-chancellor and minister of finance, as their candidate.
Compared to 4 years ago, the situation has changed a bit:
CDU/CSU:
Have droped off a cliff in recent months, with polls going as low as mid 20%. With Merkel on her way out they kind of failed to get a suitable successor in line early enough, instead it went to quite a dirty battle (for German standards) between Laschet and Söder. But more importantly, while Germany had done comparetively well in the first lockdown, the situation since autumn has been a shambles with constant going back and fourth and disagreements between federal states and the government. Laschet, who has mostly had more of an anti-lockdown stance has looked increasingly incompetent, it will be interesting to see if he can recover from that image. Still, of all parties the CDU/CSU are the deepest ingrained in German society so I reckon they will recover in the upcoming months.
SPD:
Well, being the junior coalition partner for 3 of Merkels 4 governments has left their mark. With their new party leadership they`ve moved more to the left as a response to the failed years of attempting to get voters from the center right, yet that doesn`t seem to have moved the needle at all. Their traditional voting base seems to have dissolved with having lost voters to parties of all sorts. They`re hovering at 15% right now, if they get even 20% it would be a success...which says it all for a party that was at around 40% at the turn of the century.
The Greens:
Have gained a lot of momentum in the last couple of years, similar to many Green parties around Europe. They`ve had a solid base for years, always getting around 10% and being involved in various state governments but since 2018 they`ve been really strong, polling above 20% right now. Their candidate, Baerbock is quite young and slightly inexperienced, however for exact these reasons also hard to attack and overall viewed pretty positive right now. Their voters base is now pretty broad, from young people to upper middle class to even conservative old people. Everything looks excellent right now for them but there are still a few months left.
FDP:
Well, I checked what I wrote last time and it seems nothing has changed. After famously leaving the talks for a Jamaica coalition (With CDU/CSU and Greens) after 2017s election they left a bit off a bad taste in everyone`s mouth. After their disaster from 2013 they seem to have consolidated again but neither the Fridays for future movement nor the corona pandemic has helped their championing of economic liberalism. However, they also haven`t really dropped in polling, still at around 10%. This election seems to be a bit make or break for Christian Lindner, who has been the partys face for quite a while now.
AfD:
Similar to the FDP not much seems to have changed for them. Their projected rise 5-7 years ago has not happened and they seem to have levelled out at around 10%. Internally, they`ve had quite a lot of fights on leadership and various party exclusions. They didn`t dare to go full covid denial but they`re definitely the party that has the most covidiots in their lines, with politicians speaking at anti lockdown demonstrations etc. However, it doesn`t seem to have helped them in their polling.Depending on events a right wing boost is always possible but it seems very unlikely that they get close to something like 15%.
The Left:
Same again, not much changed. I feel like they lost their momentum of the early 2010 years where they gained attraction for being a very leftist alternative to the SPD and offering different perspective mostly on foreign policy, interventionism and NATO. They`re around 5-10% so will get in.
Possible coalitions:
CDU/SPD (The grand coalition) - Current government and 3 of the last 4 governments were a grand coalition. However extremely unlikely this time, not only because they might not even get enough votes (unthinkable a decade ago) but because no one wants a grand coalition anymore.
CDU/Greens: Reasonably realistic, the Union would be happy to go that way, Greens would probably go along. Probably depends a lot on how the CDU/CSU perform in the election. If Greens get actually more votes than the CDU/CSU (unlikely) things could get spicy.
Greens/SPD/FDP: Traffic light coalition. Could happen but quite a few obstacles. With the Greens most likely getting the most votes, it`d be interesting to see how SPD and FDP would deal with having to accept a green chancellor. After leaving coalition talks last time the FDP would be under alot pressure this time, however economically they`re quite far apart from SPD and Greens.
CDU/FDP/Greens - The Jamaica coalition. After coalition talks failed in 2017 I don`t really see it as a realistic option, Greens and CDU will most likely have enough votes to just govern themselves.
Greens/SPD/The Left - Could it finally happen? The three parties on the left in a coalition - a lot of people would`ve liked to see that coalition around 2013 but I feel that train has somehow passed. At least there`s no talk around it now and it`s doubtful they even would get enough seats.
Sooo, definitely feels the most interesting election in a while, I`m happy that CDU/CSU picked Laschet over Söder as I view the latter as far more dangerous than Laschet who is a straight up moron. Would love to see the CDU/CSU continue their meltdown for the next months but I somehow don`t believe it, however, I genuinely believe Laschet is proper unpopular amongst the population. Greens in government would be great but it`ll put a lot of pressure on them to perform, last time they were in government was 1998-2005 as junior partner and expectations this time will be higher.
Kinda shocking to me to see the SPD relegated to the sidelines like this, given how they've been a mainstay in the post-WW2 era; but you see the same thing in the Netherlands now with the PvdA - similar with GroenLinks taking its place as the mainstream leftist party. (Although Dutch politics are very splintered, obscuring the view a little.)
