A world class CB and a RW?
Plus a replacement for Pogba?
Squad wise, that is anyway.
Plus a replacement for Pogba?
Squad wise, that is anyway.
How far off is this squad from a title challenge?
- Thread starter jamesjimmybyrondean
- Start date
Unlucky.
No idea
Good luck!
This team and this manager are capable of putting on a strong run. We did it last season and came from way behind to finish 3rd. We are 3rd now, with a game in hand, a better squad, and we're not even into our full stride. The issue we had last season, was that the starting 11 had to play every game, now we have options from the bench, and our best players can get a rest. We won in style today with Pogba & Greenwood rested. In our next game against Everton VDB and Mata will probably play, and Bruno and Rashford will have rest. We a wild card in Cavani, who can get goals when we are struggling to break teams down. Telles will assist with his mint deliveries into the box.
Looking at the competition, we really do have a chance. Liverpool are without VVD and Gomez. Spurs are bottle jobs. City can't score. Chelsea are inconsistent. Leicester are one Vardy injury away from being average. I think we can have a real good go at the title.
Looking at the competition, we really do have a chance. Liverpool are without VVD and Gomez. Spurs are bottle jobs. City can't score. Chelsea are inconsistent. Leicester are one Vardy injury away from being average. I think we can have a real good go at the title.
Yet only 2 more than the league leaders and favourites to win the league.
We can win Premier League in 2021/2022 with a summer window like this:
In: Dayot Upamecano/Pau Torres (£40M), Eduardo Camavinga (£50M), Kieran Trippier/Tariq Lamptey (£20M) & Jadon Sancho (£90M) = £200M
Out: Lingard (£5M), Pogba (£50M), Pereira (£10M), Williams (£10M), Dalot (£10M), James (£20M), Rojo (0), Jones (0), Ighalo (0), Romero (0), Mata (0) = £105M
Will bring competition in every position:
De Gea (Henderson)
Bissaka (Trippier)
Upamecano (Bailly)
Maguire (Lindeløf)
Shaw (Telles)
Camavinga (Matic)
Fred (McTominay)
Fernandes (De Beek)
Sancho (Greenwood)
Cavani (Martial)
Rashford (Diallo)
+ squad players like:
- Pellistri
- Mengi
- Tuanzebe
++
Haaland and Grealish (if relegation for AV) not realistic before summer 2022 (probably only one of them).
In: Dayot Upamecano/Pau Torres (£40M), Eduardo Camavinga (£50M), Kieran Trippier/Tariq Lamptey (£20M) & Jadon Sancho (£90M) = £200M
Out: Lingard (£5M), Pogba (£50M), Pereira (£10M), Williams (£10M), Dalot (£10M), James (£20M), Rojo (0), Jones (0), Ighalo (0), Romero (0), Mata (0) = £105M
Will bring competition in every position:
De Gea (Henderson)
Bissaka (Trippier)
Upamecano (Bailly)
Maguire (Lindeløf)
Shaw (Telles)
Camavinga (Matic)
Fred (McTominay)
Fernandes (De Beek)
Sancho (Greenwood)
Cavani (Martial)
Rashford (Diallo)
+ squad players like:
- Pellistri
- Mengi
- Tuanzebe
++
Haaland and Grealish (if relegation for AV) not realistic before summer 2022 (probably only one of them).
Premier league table since Bruno arrived: https://www.twtd.co.uk/league-table...Feb-01/todate:2020-Dec-20/type:home-and-away/
| 1 | Manchester City | 24 | 10 | 1 | 1 | 37 | 7 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 18 | 10 | 38 | 51 | |||
| 2 | Liverpool | 25 | 10 | 1 | 0 | 31 | 13 | 5 | 5 | 4 | 24 | 23 | 19 | 51 | |||
| 3 | Manchester United | 22 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 17 | 15 | 10 | 2 | 0 | 30 | 9 | 23 | 47 | |||
| 4 | Tottenham Hotspur | 25 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 21 | 11 | 6 | 5 | 2 | 24 | 14 | 20 | 47 |
In the euphoria of going top of the league at its halfway point, it is important to realise that our league position is somewhat inflated and we are getting better results than expected. Our actual goal difference is only 11 (36 scored and 25 conceded) ranking us at 5th tied with Aston Villa yet even this outperforms what is statistically expected. Our expected goal difference is even worse at 6.1 (32.2 expected goals and 26.1 expected goals against) ranking us at 7th (Aston Villa's expected goal difference is 13, in comparison) . This gives rise to an expected league position of 7th, below Brighton. These numbers would imply that while we maybe developing the grit to grind out the odd-goal win, a la championship form, that over time our actual position will regress to the mean expected position as City, Liverpool and Chelsea regain their expected positions and we will fall down the table.
It is also important mid-season (while unexpectedly top of the league) to not lose sight of the reasons that we complain about in every summer transfer window. The fundamental reason for this remain the same - (relative) underinvestment in the squad by the Glazers to value top 4 rather than the title. It is clear that if we actually had gotten Sancho, a starting CDM and maybe a CB in the summer, we would have had a far more resilient squad than the one that seems to be hanging on for dear life to one-goal leads at the likes of Fulham. While we may be caught up in the euphoria of unexpected success (though no trophies have been distributed yet!), this fundamental reason did not disappear once the season started and will likely remain with us while the Glazers own the club.
Our current exalted league position has a risk. Should we fall away this season from the 1st position with a whimper (having tasted unexpected mid-season success), fans will turn on management, top mid-career players like Pogba and Bruno will surely leave and even younger up-and-coming stars like Rashford will consider their futures elsewhere. We will have to again flirt with top-4 non-qualification and the possibility of the next entrant through the manager revolving door replacing Ole. The current Glazer investment strategy has no capability for us to avoid this very-real possibility.
Rather than complaining about the Glazers, however, this post seeks to outline the benefits of a strategy that may help them and us, the fans. We are currently in an open transfer window, so what if we were to invest the next 2 transfer window funds in this one? We might get more bang for our buck due to Covid pricing and, if there is any financial value to the Glazers from winning a title, surely there can't be a better time to invest in the squad if we are (unexpectedly) top of the league at the half-way point? Investing now will assure fans that the Glazers are interested in winning a title and, if we look at young and up-and-coming talent, will give us more time to bed them in. The cost of this strategy is the financial cost of spending the next 2 transfer window funds 6 months and a year earlier which amounts to half a year's interest on a loan, seemingly not a large price to pay for the benefits.
January is notoriously hard to get good players (Bruno, Vidic and Evra notwithstanding) so we will have to be smart and a bit lucky. Luckily, Dortmund is 10 points behind Bayern now and are certain to lose an underperforming (relatively; this season) Sancho in the summer. What if we gave them a deal they couldn't refuse like 100m - 120m euros to take him now? Lille is in financial trouble now, so what if we bought a CDM like Soumare from Lille for 35m euros? And tested Leipzig's resolve with a 60m euro bid for Upamecano? For the cost of prepaying for 2 transfer windows we would have a squad capable of winning the PL this season for the first time in 8 years. Having bought youth presciently this summer in preparation for Brexit we could have a settled squad for the next year that would be enhanced by some of the best young talent around as it develops.
This strategy, though with some risk, is entirely rational for the opportunity that we find ourselves in. It, if it succeeds, carries the potential reward of a title that would gain many new young fans (income-generating possibilities) who don't remember Fergie's time of success as well as potentially increasing the valuation for the likes of potential buyers (like the Saudis when they inevitably take another crack at us) in an exit for the Glazers, their only goal. If we fail to win a title this year we will have a very good squad of assets that can be sold on or used to take another crack next year.
What do you all think? If this makes sense, I hope the Glazers read this.
It is also important mid-season (while unexpectedly top of the league) to not lose sight of the reasons that we complain about in every summer transfer window. The fundamental reason for this remain the same - (relative) underinvestment in the squad by the Glazers to value top 4 rather than the title. It is clear that if we actually had gotten Sancho, a starting CDM and maybe a CB in the summer, we would have had a far more resilient squad than the one that seems to be hanging on for dear life to one-goal leads at the likes of Fulham. While we may be caught up in the euphoria of unexpected success (though no trophies have been distributed yet!), this fundamental reason did not disappear once the season started and will likely remain with us while the Glazers own the club.
Our current exalted league position has a risk. Should we fall away this season from the 1st position with a whimper (having tasted unexpected mid-season success), fans will turn on management, top mid-career players like Pogba and Bruno will surely leave and even younger up-and-coming stars like Rashford will consider their futures elsewhere. We will have to again flirt with top-4 non-qualification and the possibility of the next entrant through the manager revolving door replacing Ole. The current Glazer investment strategy has no capability for us to avoid this very-real possibility.
Rather than complaining about the Glazers, however, this post seeks to outline the benefits of a strategy that may help them and us, the fans. We are currently in an open transfer window, so what if we were to invest the next 2 transfer window funds in this one? We might get more bang for our buck due to Covid pricing and, if there is any financial value to the Glazers from winning a title, surely there can't be a better time to invest in the squad if we are (unexpectedly) top of the league at the half-way point? Investing now will assure fans that the Glazers are interested in winning a title and, if we look at young and up-and-coming talent, will give us more time to bed them in. The cost of this strategy is the financial cost of spending the next 2 transfer window funds 6 months and a year earlier which amounts to half a year's interest on a loan, seemingly not a large price to pay for the benefits.
January is notoriously hard to get good players (Bruno, Vidic and Evra notwithstanding) so we will have to be smart and a bit lucky. Luckily, Dortmund is 10 points behind Bayern now and are certain to lose an underperforming (relatively; this season) Sancho in the summer. What if we gave them a deal they couldn't refuse like 100m - 120m euros to take him now? Lille is in financial trouble now, so what if we bought a CDM like Soumare from Lille for 35m euros? And tested Leipzig's resolve with a 60m euro bid for Upamecano? For the cost of prepaying for 2 transfer windows we would have a squad capable of winning the PL this season for the first time in 8 years. Having bought youth presciently this summer in preparation for Brexit we could have a settled squad for the next year that would be enhanced by some of the best young talent around as it develops.
This strategy, though with some risk, is entirely rational for the opportunity that we find ourselves in. It, if it succeeds, carries the potential reward of a title that would gain many new young fans (income-generating possibilities) who don't remember Fergie's time of success as well as potentially increasing the valuation for the likes of potential buyers (like the Saudis when they inevitably take another crack at us) in an exit for the Glazers, their only goal. If we fail to win a title this year we will have a very good squad of assets that can be sold on or used to take another crack next year.
What do you all think? If this makes sense, I hope the Glazers read this.
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Fantastic post. Great read. Makes absolute sense and gives a voice to a “gut” feeling I have been harbouring since all this title talk started. We simply don’t “feel” like a title chasing side, and your post articulates exactly why.
Liverpool are missing VVD terribly and its only a matter of time before Chelsea hire a decent manager. If United want to seriously compete then we need at least a top quality CB and a top quality DM. That assuming that Greenwood and Diallo can own the RW.
I admire your optimism and I for one also hopes Joel reads this
All around a very sensible post. Only thing is, I'm not sure if we brought someone in in this window, they'd be ready and clicking the next 4-5 months as the league is high-paced and needs adjusting to, even for (an out of form) Sancho I believe. On paper the strategy seems good, but I'm not sure how it works in reality - Also with the overall price of Sancho and what we've just paid for Diallo, I don't think we can spend 100-120m euros and in total about 230-260m on him at the moment. I think we backed out, because the total price was just too much. Not sure if a 20% cheaper offer in total would make it feasible - At the moment he's also a 50% worse player than he was, so it's also about what player we get. (Pulisic to Chelsea really springs to mind here - same path, but more injured)
Get a DM, Left-footed CB in this window and we might have a chance.
I really don't think people are taking into consideration just how tough this season is, especially for any team that had to play European competition late into the summer.
The main reason I'm confident in our ability to stay in the thick of the title race is that we've largely scraped by with a lack of production from our forwards. Martial has been struggling to find the net all year, Rashford hasn't been great recently, and Greenwood has had a really tough second year in the side. If just two of those three can find their lockdown form again, we have a serious shot at winning the title.
Most likely though, we need a top CB and mainstay CDM, as well as some sort of natural option for the RW spot. It doesn't even have to be Sancho, but it needs to be a player that prefers that role and can offer some comfort over there. I have really high hopes for Diallo but I'm not going to just pencil him in and count that problem as solved.
The main reason I'm confident in our ability to stay in the thick of the title race is that we've largely scraped by with a lack of production from our forwards. Martial has been struggling to find the net all year, Rashford hasn't been great recently, and Greenwood has had a really tough second year in the side. If just two of those three can find their lockdown form again, we have a serious shot at winning the title.
Most likely though, we need a top CB and mainstay CDM, as well as some sort of natural option for the RW spot. It doesn't even have to be Sancho, but it needs to be a player that prefers that role and can offer some comfort over there. I have really high hopes for Diallo but I'm not going to just pencil him in and count that problem as solved.
Martial and Greenwood need to start scoring ASAP which would give us a great chance.
One side will get their acts together and I do think it will be Liverpool unfortunately.
Dark horses are Aston Villa, how the first goal not offside yesterday, fkin barmy.
One side will get their acts together and I do think it will be Liverpool unfortunately.
Dark horses are Aston Villa, how the first goal not offside yesterday, fkin barmy.
RW,DM,RB and a CB.
Some of our stats are completely destroyed by the first 3 games, when we barely had a preseason and our players were dead on their feet.
Check the stats from Oct 17 (after first 3 games) then we are in top 2 in almost all metrics. Second in XG, 3rd in XGA, 2nd in expected points. We have done really well after the first 3 games.
We had expected goals against of 8.1 in first 3 games, that's one of the reason why stats on a whole shows us in 'not so good' position.
All of us should mail this post to man utd reps. Largely agree with you although I don’t see the expected goal diff metric as the Holy Grail. For instance if we dominate Fulham with 7-1and lose to Liverpool 0-1, would that be better than if we beat Fulham 2-0 and Liverpool 1-0? The expected GD would suggest that the first team is better. I understand your more nuanced point that we have been outperforming our expected GD.
But I agree with your conclusions. We clearly need strengthening - the board should support Ole now. If not by helping us 3 players but filling even 1 crucial position could make a difference.
RW, DM, even a striker
If our defence wasnt shite we had a chance.
With Slabhead, Bailly and Lindeloff, cant see us winning
With Slabhead, Bailly and Lindeloff, cant see us winning
Can't understand why Utd have let Arsenal have a free run at Partey. Partey could have been immense for this team by simply freeing up the creative players to do what they do best without losing quality from deep. A proper CDM and right Winger and this team is title-worthy.
We’re gonna be right up there. Pogba is the best player in the league when he fancies it, Cavani is a machine, De Gea is back to being trustworthy.
Bruno’s been poor for a few weeks now and the 3 amigos haven’t even started yet, we’ll be scary good if those 4 can find form. Alternatively if Maguire could add direction to his headers we’d have no need to play any attackers.
Bruno’s been poor for a few weeks now and the 3 amigos haven’t even started yet, we’ll be scary good if those 4 can find form. Alternatively if Maguire could add direction to his headers we’d have no need to play any attackers.
So the problem with a post about xpected whatevers is pretty obvious when it reads "Man Utd should be behind Brighton". If you've ever watched Brighton with real human eyes you'll know they deserve to be exactly where they are in the table because they concede daft goals and bottle it in key moments in front of goal. Stuff like Pogba's goal yesterday is why xGs are rubbish - we have players who have the nerve, belief and talent to do that and Brighton don't.
I do agree that we shouldn't be struggling to one goal wins the whole time but in fairness every team is going to have times where their forwards are out of form - in our case Rashford, Martial and Greenwood all are - so tbh I'll take a one goal win at this point. You see with Liverpool when Salah, Mané and Jota are all out/ out of form how they struggle too. Or Leicester with Vardy and Maddison.
Clearly we can improve the squad, and let's hope we do, but I think we have the 2nd best team this year and if City cock it up we can win.
I do agree that we shouldn't be struggling to one goal wins the whole time but in fairness every team is going to have times where their forwards are out of form - in our case Rashford, Martial and Greenwood all are - so tbh I'll take a one goal win at this point. You see with Liverpool when Salah, Mané and Jota are all out/ out of form how they struggle too. Or Leicester with Vardy and Maddison.
Clearly we can improve the squad, and let's hope we do, but I think we have the 2nd best team this year and if City cock it up we can win.
What’s your definition of a title challenge? Within 6 pts of the top with 5 matches left?
I think the Glazers purposely avoid all possible sources of good ideas so they can maintain deniability.
There are a couple of things speaking for you (United). Grind out games, enjoy the luck of the hard working, relatively stable squad, good spirit. You might not batter most teams like ManCity, but getting more 1-nil than the competition might just be enough to see you through. I see you in the title race, along with City, Liverpool not any longer. They are too afraid to lose, hence will draw a lot more games. They already eliminate themselves from the title race. Just focus on yourself and you can win this.
"Challenge" is all relative. This squad can challenge for the title this season (as we currently are - even though it's early days at the halfway mark), IMO. Can this squad challenge a team like Liverpool last season or City the season before, where they amassed 90+ points? No. But this season has been wildly unpredictable with fixture congestion, injuries, COVID, so if it maintains its current levels of unpredictability and the eventual champions end up with 75-80 points, as an example, yes we can challenge this season. Considering most of our frontline haven't been in any sort of form - there's a little cause for optimism if they were to hit some form, IMO.
Things could obviously also go the other way. And the run City is on, seems ominous and Liverpool could also string a run together, especially if their full strength squad becomes available (and not to mention their forwards have also dropped a level). We're still behind those two. But I'd say this squad can challenge, this season, at that 75-80 point mark. I don't see a reason why not.
Things could obviously also go the other way. And the run City is on, seems ominous and Liverpool could also string a run together, especially if their full strength squad becomes available (and not to mention their forwards have also dropped a level). We're still behind those two. But I'd say this squad can challenge, this season, at that 75-80 point mark. I don't see a reason why not.
We need to be more clinical upfront. As good as Cavani Is his age means he isn’t a long-term solution and other than him we have two players who pretty much a look as if their development has peaked and the end result is two fairly decent forwards but neither one of which if we’re honest are very unlikely now to suddenly turn over night into absolute world beaters.
There are other issues as well but I think primarily unless we become more clinical and start putting away the chances we get we will always risk falling short.
The game has changed so much from the halcyon days of the 1990s these days you aren’t likely to get 20 or 25 chances a match you cannot afford to squander as much as we do squander through our front line either by experience lack of confidence or lack of ability I don’t think you can win a title in this day and age by indulging in relative mediocrity upfront
There are other issues as well but I think primarily unless we become more clinical and start putting away the chances we get we will always risk falling short.
The game has changed so much from the halcyon days of the 1990s these days you aren’t likely to get 20 or 25 chances a match you cannot afford to squander as much as we do squander through our front line either by experience lack of confidence or lack of ability I don’t think you can win a title in this day and age by indulging in relative mediocrity upfront
You can't stat team spirit. We are showing brilliant spirit these days to get the win especially when we go behind.
Also the start to the season no doubt will skrewd a lot of our XG stats etc and goal difference.
The most amazing bit of this season is last season our front 3 scored more than Liverpools, and so far this season martial done next to nothing and greenwood can't get a sniff at the moment, and we are where we are. Says a lot about us. If we start clicking up front again we start winning easier games again.
Also if Maguire started scoring the free headers he's getting every match we would get loads of cheap goals and more easy wins. One will land on his head about the 6 yard box ever my game, he needs to start burying em
Also the start to the season no doubt will skrewd a lot of our XG stats etc and goal difference.
The most amazing bit of this season is last season our front 3 scored more than Liverpools, and so far this season martial done next to nothing and greenwood can't get a sniff at the moment, and we are where we are. Says a lot about us. If we start clicking up front again we start winning easier games again.
Also if Maguire started scoring the free headers he's getting every match we would get loads of cheap goals and more easy wins. One will land on his head about the 6 yard box ever my game, he needs to start burying em
+CF
To me a striker like Haaland is the top priority. This season we have been very wasteful in front of goal.
If we can solved our strikers problem we would be as good as Man City and Liverpool.
We struggled to kill off games because our strikers have been missing sitters after sitters.
Once we are more clinical in front of goal the team confidence will grow and the form will improve.
Next priority is a DM who can dictate play from deep, someone like Thiago, Carrick.
Fred, McT and Matic have been decent but if we want to control the game against big team we need a world class DM.
Finally, we need a CB to partner Macguire. Bailey and Lindelof are good CB but we need something more.
If we can solved our strikers problem we would be as good as Man City and Liverpool.
We struggled to kill off games because our strikers have been missing sitters after sitters.
Once we are more clinical in front of goal the team confidence will grow and the form will improve.
Next priority is a DM who can dictate play from deep, someone like Thiago, Carrick.
Fred, McT and Matic have been decent but if we want to control the game against big team we need a world class DM.
Finally, we need a CB to partner Macguire. Bailey and Lindelof are good CB but we need something more.
Thanks. Agree about gut feeling.
#MeToo
Agree about Diallo being a potential barrier for Sancho. Could still use a CDM, though. Ndidi would kill many birds...
Great point I hadn’t fully appreciated. Still, we should be moving from 2nd/3rd xPts to 1st to have a chance.
A “man utd rep”? What a great business idea, like a fanship manager.
Partey was perfect, Ndidi/Rice will cost more for less
Fantastic point about all xG not being the same - Messi is expected to score more goals from the same situation than James. Yet, there is a feeling that we are getting lucky, a feeling that didn’t exist in the Fergie years.
Absolutely. Would make great sense to explain the past 15 years. Yet, their investment in young talent lately suggests they are listening.to data people more now.
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And that.. Martial isn´t working at all.
How far off is this squad from a title challenge?
50% - 19 games
50% - 19 games
We are challenging now. Maybe a better question is how far is this squad from being considered title favourites or close to that
To compete for this season we definitely need a RW and DM or we will go slowly down the table.
Cavani needs to be played from the start and Martial and Rashford need to learn how to get themselves in striker positions.
Cavani needs to be played from the start and Martial and Rashford need to learn how to get themselves in striker positions.
Still think we are a bit off. Liverpool and Manchester City still have gears to go to imo.
Until we get a midfield that can dominate and sustain possession with territory, I don't think we can be genuine title challengers.
At the moment, this team simply cannot sustain attacks. That is such a crucial part of being a top team.
I fear we are pretenders.
Until we get a midfield that can dominate and sustain possession with territory, I don't think we can be genuine title challengers.
At the moment, this team simply cannot sustain attacks. That is such a crucial part of being a top team.
I fear we are pretenders.
The sooner we can give Diallo a go, the sooner we'll know if we have what it takes. If he can add anything at all to the right side, we're instantly way better off than we are right now.
But, we ARE title contenders already. We're not favorites, but we're definitely contenders. We're really tough to beat, and we're breaking down teams better than we've done in what... 8 years?
Let's go!!
But, we ARE title contenders already. We're not favorites, but we're definitely contenders. We're really tough to beat, and we're breaking down teams better than we've done in what... 8 years?
Let's go!!
Also think when taking our below par GD into account the horrendous 1-6 against Spurs should be considered. We completely fell apart in that game, but as yet it looks like a one off freak result. If we had not gone to sleep for 89 minutes and only lost 1-2 our GD would be pretty similar to the other challengers. Granted Liverpool also lost 2-7 in a freak game, but they also won 7-0 in a freak game where Palace could've scored a couple on the 1st half and then disintegrated in the 2nd half.
It's a bit frustrating that we are unlikely to be in with a chance of winning the title on GD but I'm not too concerned about our GD being a demonstration of our true quality based on the above.
It's a bit frustrating that we are unlikely to be in with a chance of winning the title on GD but I'm not too concerned about our GD being a demonstration of our true quality based on the above.