Inflation, will the CAF ever accept that?

[meamth]

I think since the Neymar move 2 years ago, football transfer fees is not the same as it was.
Time and time again in CAF we've seen posters keep mentioning AWB shouldn't cost 50 million pounds, same as Maguire.

Neither did other players signed from other clubs, Kepa from Atletico, VVD from Southampton, Romelu Lukuku from Everton, Nicolas Pepe from Lille.

Can't we all agree that these days, quality players are valued two times more than it was before Neymar transfer happened?

De Bruyne would've cost City 150 million pounds had it happened after Neymar, Di Maria would've cost us 120 million, Pogba would've cost us 180 million...list goes on.

AWB is easily a 25 million player, Maguire is 35-40 million player due to his long contract and premium of being an Englishmen.

Yes we could've have signed more unknown players like Daniel James, but when we seek for PL level talents, this is the level of money we're going to spend on ONE player.

So what is the problem? Why is it so hard for CAF posters to move on from the past?

Heck even FM19 understood this.

 

[mwake]

Won't this all get worse post Brexit?

 

[Hound Dog]

It is really hard to argue with the VVD price tag, even with pre-Neymar prices, with the benefit of hindsight.

Otherwise, yes, it is cleae that things have changed massively. I reckon most of us had laughed at the initial reports that PSG would pay as much as they eventually did for Neymar. "Slow news day" etc.

 

[meamth]

It is really hard to argue with the VVD price tag, even with pre-Neymar prices, with the benefit of hindsight.

Otherwise, yes, it is cleae that things have changed massively. I reckon most of us had laughed at the initial reports that PSG would pay as much as they eventually did for Neymar. "Slow news day" etc.

Thing is, we've seen people here still slating the fees we paid for AWB and Maguire.

Am I the only here who could live with current transfer inflation??

 

[blitzkrieg]

We're unfortunately on a real spiral downhill - unless the club accepts a transfer policy comprised of unproven / unknown gems like Daniel James instead of overpriced names like Maguire / Pogba.

Club stands at ~GBP 600m revenue today with ~180m EBITDA and a cash reserve of ~140m. We stand to lose ~20% of revenue if we miss Europa qualification next season, notwithstanding the potential hit in earnings due to the brand's decline (merchandise, retail, sponsorship etc.).

Based on our current reserve and earnings, i'd say we probably have enough to purchase 2-3 more superstars or 10-15 unproven gems that are hungry and willing to fight for the club. I'd much prefer taking the latter. Any further failings in the superstar market would just cement the club's decline.

Or... let's pray we get a new owner that knows a thing or two about running businesses...

 

[Sassy Colin]

Maguire was overpriced because, in any market, we paid double what we should have paid.

 

[Sky1981]

Wow, an excuse for everything?

Even if you count inflation, we're still spending more than our competitors. If you're competing against a static numbers then yes, inflation matters. But not we're the League's top spender, you can't count inflation if by the end of the day you're still bested by those that doesn't even spend as much as you

 

[Hawks2008]

It's simple, just don't sign so many players from other PL clubs. 130m combined was spent on AWB and Maguire and as we've seen our defence is still weak, I refuse to believe we could not have found players of similar quality for far less if we looked outside of England. Basically if they're at a PL club and put together a decent run of form they will cost 50m minimum and if they're a midfielder/forward add 30m on top (more if homegrown). We need 5-6 new starters as is they cannot all cost the better part of 100m.

Tielemans was available for 40m in the summer window, if we tried to sign him now it would be almost double that amount to bring him in. We need to be better at identifying these players who can thrive in England instead of waiting for them do it elsewhere and then pay through the nose for them later. When you consider that the players we are linked with like Maddison or Grealish were available for peanuts years ago or Maguire moved from Hull to Leicester for a mere 12m not that long ago it shows that there is much more value for money outside the PL.

 

[Sky1981]

It's simple, just don't sign so many players from other PL clubs. 130m combined was spent on AWB and Maguire and as we've seen our defence is still weak, I refuse to believe we could not have found players of similar quality for far less if we looked outside of England. Basically if they're at a PL club and put together a decent run of form they will cost 50m minimum and if they're a midfielder/forward add 30m on top (more if homegrown). We need 5-6 new starters as is they cannot all cost the better part of 100m.

Tielemans was available for 40m in the summer window, if we tried to sign him now it would be almost double that amount to bring him in. We need to be better at identifying these players who can thrive in England instead of waiting for them do it elsewhere and then pay through the nose for them later. When you consider that the players we are linked with like Maddison or Grealish were available for peanuts years ago or Maguire moved from Hull to Leicester for a mere 12m not that long ago it shows that there is much more value for money outside the PL.

Are we even that good in scouting department? Our recruitment post SAF are toilet standard.

Even if we overpaid for a proven player that on paper and realistically can't go wrong in AWB and Maguire we seems to get our wallet burnt. AWB and Maguire are good player, but for 120M combined i'm expecting something else. A VVD level of player who can elevate us to the next level (at least defensive wise). I doubt James are even that good anymore, his few games where he took everyone by surprise is due to him being an unknown quantity from the championship he had that surprise factors in him.

And a good scouting team isn't only necessary for purchase, it's also important for player evaluation. We have 1 Manager and 3 coaches who "Fails" to identify their own player, the player that plays under them for a good 6 months is loaned out (yes, I"m talking about Smailing), spend 80M for a sideways Upgrade. Letting Lukaku goes for nothing (not monetary wise, but replacement wise) while we struggling to break down most of mid to lower table teams we've faced.

Are our coaches even that good? or was it some kind of "surely they can't be that bad"?

 

[blitzkrieg]

IMO, overpaying is really driven by two things:

1. The perception that we are the richest and most valued club in the world - so everything should be affordable

2. Our management's inadequacy. I do M&A for a living and the way we get jacked around in a window is unreal. First, no seller is ever going to keep our interest secret because introducing competitive tension only adds to us paying more. And more importantly, we are known to overstretch ourselves for our #1 target. No alternatives = no ability to walk away = no negotiation power = overpay. Suggest we get used to this dynamic.

A radical change would be taking a bet on an unproven talent, submitting an exploding offer and walking away if we dont get it. Attempt this on numerous talents and I'd say we'll start to see change. We diversify player-concentration risk and we'll utilize our budget far better while risking the unproven talent's ability to emerge. I'll take on this risk any day, given the price gap and the "superstars" that have come through the club recently...

 

[Hawks2008]

Are we even that good in scouting department? Our recruitment post SAF are toilet standard.

Even if we overpaid for a proven player that on paper and realistically can't go wrong in AWB and Maguire we seems to get our wallet burnt. AWB and Maguire are good player, but for 120M combined i'm expecting something else. A VVD level of player who can elevate us to the next level (at least defensive wise). I doubt James are even that good anymore, his few games where he took everyone by surprise is due to him being an unknown quantity from the championship he had that surprise factors in him.

And a good scouting team isn't only necessary for purchase, it's also important for player evaluation. We have 1 Manager and 3 coaches who "Fails" to identify their own player, the player that plays under them for a good 6 months is loaned out (yes, I"m talking about Smailing), spend 80M for a sideways Upgrade. Letting Lukaku goes for nothing (not monetary wise, but replacement wise) while we struggling to break down most of mid to lower table teams we've faced.

Are our coaches even that good? or was it some kind of "surely they can't be that bad"?

Yes I thought of this often, Ole is clearly poor but how shit must Phelan be? Not to mention Mckenna and Carrick who were there when it went to shit under Mourinho. I do question their evaluation especially when they talk about things like 'oh we can only sign the RIGHT players', it just makes me wonder what is the 'right' player. I feel like it's all just a bit too idealistic, Ole probably fell in love with the idea of Maguire being our next Bruce-esque figure at the back and Phelan was a coach of his, and when I read about Carrick alerting Ole to Longstaff who we wanted in the summer, a young homegrown CM from the North East and so he sees some of himself in that player. We were not linked with any other midfielder. We got the tip about James from Giggs and AWB was as obvious a signing as anything.

For all the talk of Woodward being incompetent in the transfer window the coaches are as much to blame as them for our horrid dealings in the summer.

 

[Jeppers7]

We're unfortunately on a real spiral downhill - unless the club accepts a transfer policy comprised of unproven / unknown gems like Daniel James instead of overpriced names like Maguire / Pogba.

Club stands at ~GBP 600m revenue today with ~180m EBITDA and a cash reserve of ~140m. We stand to lose ~20% of revenue if we miss Europa qualification next season, notwithstanding the potential hit in earnings due to the brand's decline (merchandise, retail, sponsorship etc.).

Based on our current reserve and earnings, i'd say we probably have enough to purchase 2-3 more superstars or 10-15 unproven gems that are hungry and willing to fight for the club. I'd much prefer taking the latter. Any further failings in the superstar market would just cement the club's decline.

Or... let's pray we get a new owner that knows a thing or two about running businesses...

Really? You think 10-15 Dan James are the answer ?
This is the issue for me, people can't separate transfer fees and personal feelings from player performance.

Dan James performances this season are only perceived to be acceptable due to his price tag and character. I like Dan James, who doesn't? He's a likeable lad, with some potential who mostly puts a shift in. But his performances have dropped off for a while now and he's having very little impact on games in any respect. His highest level isn't world class either.

So if you take emotion out of the equation and deal purely with performance and ability, what you're saying makes no sense. It's no better to have player A be capable of anonymous performances and dips in form, than player B. Especially when player B is capable of world class performances and player A isn't.

10-15 Dan James's might feel better to you, but the reality is that we'd struggle for performances and results. Price tags and likeable characteristics won't help.

 

[Dancfc]

Wan Bissaka's transfer fee is about right (ad inflation) given his age, defensive ability, PL experience and overall potential.

Maguire at £80m however is outrageous inflation or not, there's no mental gymnastics that can justify that one.

 

[Roboc7]

Even with inflation there is no way to justify the Maguire fee. No other club would have paid that fee, only us. That’s not inflation that’s just a poorly run club that can’t find alternatives.

 

[meamth]

Even with inflation there is no way to justify the Maguire fee. No other club would have paid that fee, only us. That’s not inflation that’s just a poorly run club that can’t find alternatives.

Really? If we're looking for the best English center half, that could hold the ball, and Maguire is the best of the lot, it's not justified?

That's when inflation comes in, if it was years ago and he was bought for 40 million, is it still not accepted?

 

[Roboc7]

Really? If we're looking for the best English center half, that could hold the ball, and Maguire is the best of the lot, it's not justified?

That's when inflation comes in, if it was years ago and he was bought for 40 million, is it still not accepted?

Best English CB from really slim pickings and can hold the ball = most expensive defender of all time. That’s desperation or incompetence not inflation.

 

[Josep Dowling]

Maguire was overpriced because, in any market, we paid double what we should have paid.

We paid too much but there is no chance you would buy an English CB in his prime years for £40m. The max he should have cost was around £60-£70m. When we got quoted £80m we should have moved on and look at other targets.

We continue to overpay for every single player by min 25% which in the long run damages your negotiation reputation and we now get quoted insane prices for every player.

Leeds had agreed to sign James for £7m in January. Having seen the the Leeds documentary on Amazon he was a piece of paper away for signing for them. Just a few months later we pay £11m more. Why, because he had one good game against City in that period of time? It’s simply because club know we are stupid enough to pay the fees.

 

[soapythecat]

Wolves built a decent squad pretty cheaply. Liverpool have just bought a real talent (apparently) for <£8m. We over pay because we chase the wrong players IMO.
Are you not telling me there is better CB than HM about? Certainly cheaper too. Ditto full backs. We are garbage at scouting players and most of the Caf acknowledge that.
Insinuating then Caf can’t see the most basics in our rubbish transfer policy to stick up for Woodward and the Glazers is a garbage way to make a thread.

 

[Zlatattack]

People are aware of the inflation, they just point out how unsavvy we are in the market sometimes.

We need good players to improve our squad, Ryan Fraser is available on a free this summer - we definitely won't sign him. Tielesman signed for £40 million, we're still playing Periera.

Maguire looked decent when he was at Hull, certainly better than Jones ever did for us, but we waited for him to his peak at Leicester. Same with VvD at Celtic. I think the frustration for some is a mix of that.

Personally I don't care. Spend what it takes.

 

[Sky1981]

Best English CB from really slim pickings and can hold the ball = most expensive defender of all time. That’s desperation or incompetence not inflation.

Do we really need a ball playing defender? When our midfield can't even string 5 pass without getting dispossessed.

It's like paying 80M for a stereo set while having a flat tyre

 

[Josep Dowling]

Wolves built a decent squad pretty cheaply. Liverpool have just bought a real talent (apparently) for <£8m. We over pay because we chase the wrong players IMO.
Are you not telling me there is better CB than HM about? Certainly cheaper too. Ditto full backs. We are garbage at scouting players and most of the Caf acknowledge that.
Insinuating then Caf can’t see the most basics in our rubbish transfer policy to stick up for Woodward and the Glazers is a garbage way to make a thread.

Wolves have only got to where they are with the Jorge Mendes connection.

People are aware of the inflation, they just point out how unsavvy we are in the market sometimes.

We need good players to improve our squad, Ryan Fraser is available on a free this summer - we definitely won't sign him. Tielesman signed for £40 million, we're still playing Periera.

Maguire looked decent when he was at Hull, certainly better than Jones ever did for us, but we waited for him to his peak at Leicester. Same with VvD at Celtic. I think the frustration for some is a mix of that.

Personally I don't care. Spend what it takes.

Tielemans is a very frustrating one for me. We played Anderlecht in the Europa League and he destroyed us in the midfield. Back then he was touted for big things.

He then performed very well on loan for Leicester last year. Had a buy out clause that was cheap. He fit the profile of players we should targeting. And we needed midfielders. How could they not go for him? He’s now a £75m midfielder if we went in for him.

I have said it many times recruitment has been our biggest issues for years. Whoever is on our scouting team should be sacked because they are not doing their job. You’re telling me we couldn’t get better than Maguire, AWB and James for £150m?

 

[DoomSlayer]

Our board are incompetent and our negotiations department is absolutely abysmal. We always overpay in transfer fees and wages, it's absurd.

 

[Danny Roberts]

We paid too much but there is no chance you would buy an English CB in his prime years for £40m. The max he should have cost was around £60-£70m. When we got quoted £80m we should have moved on and look at other targets.

We continue to overpay for every single player by min 25% which in the long run damages your negotiation reputation and we now get quoted insane prices for every player.

Leeds had agreed to sign James for £7m in January. Having seen the the Leeds documentary on Amazon he was a piece of paper away for signing for them. Just a few months later we pay £11m more. Why, because he had one good game against City in that period of time? It’s simply because club know we are stupid enough to pay the fees.

He was amazing post-January TBF and a PL club is always going to pay more than a Championship one, plus a little more experience in him, more games, 6 months of...inflation!

 

[Josep Dowling]

He was amazing post-January TBF and a PL club is always going to pay more than a Championship one, plus a little more experience in him, more games, 6 months of...inflation!

C’mon there is no way his value went up by £11m in that space of time. People talk like James was a stand out player from the Championship. I’d hadn’t heard any Premier League clubs linked to him until we had interest. Then all of a sudden loads of United fans were saying how great he had been for Swansea. His highlight reel was an assist against City and not much else.

 

[Zehner]

I think since the Neymar move 2 years ago, football transfer fees is not the same as it was.
Time and time again in CAF we've seen posters keep mentioning AWB shouldn't cost 50 million pounds, same as Maguire.

Neither did other players signed from other clubs, Kepa from Atletico, VVD from Southampton, Romelu Lukuku from Everton, Nicolas Pepe from Lille.

Can't we all agree that these days, quality players are valued two times more than it was before Neymar transfer happened?

De Bruyne would've cost City 150 million pounds had it happened after Neymar, Di Maria would've cost us 120 million, Pogba would've cost us 180 million...list goes on.

AWB is easily a 25 million player, Maguire is 35-40 million player due to his long contract and premium of being an Englishmen.

Yes we could've have signed more unknown players like Daniel James, but when we seek for PL level talents, this is the level of money we're going to spend on ONE player.

So what is the problem? Why is it so hard for CAF posters to move on from the past?

Heck even FM19 understood this.

Thing is, you are overpaying even with inflation in mind. Maguire and Wan-Bissaka are great players but especially the Maguire price tag is just insane. You also overpaid when you signed Pogba given that this transfer happened before the Neymar move. 100 million € at that point in time would be like 200 million in todays market and that's still a sume reserved for the absolutely greatest talents out there. Mbappe or Sancho level.

And you are getting a reputation for it, I think. When good German players are about to move, United are usually among the favoured destinations among supporters because people expect that they'll get more momey from them.

But I think that also has to do with your preference of native players. They are simply more eypansive due to the EPL rule set and marketability. Not entirely sure that's a clever strategy though.

 

[Cloud7]

I have no problem with us spending 80 million on a player, but when that player is fairly average, you do have to question if the money is actually being well spent. For example, I’ll happily say breaking the world record on Pogba was a worthwhile investment, but I can’t say that breaking the world record defender fee for Maguire was.

 

[blitzkrieg]

Really? You think 10-15 Dan James are the answer ?
This is the issue for me, people can't separate transfer fees and personal feelings from player performance.

Dan James performances this season are only perceived to be acceptable due to his price tag and character. I like Dan James, who doesn't? He's a likeable lad, with some potential who mostly puts a shift in. But his performances have dropped off for a while now and he's having very little impact on games in any respect. His highest level isn't world class either.

So if you take emotion out of the equation and deal purely with performance and ability, what you're saying makes no sense. It's no better to have player A be capable of anonymous performances and dips in form, than player B. Especially when player B is capable of world class performances and player A isn't.

10-15 Dan James's might feel better to you, but the reality is that we'd struggle for performances and results. Price tags and likeable characteristics won't help.

In an ideal world where we have infinite resources like the Sheikhs - 10-15 world class players are the way to go but the way the club has gone, there's no way we can keep taking risks and huge bets on proven stars. We're in this predicament because while we have the odd talent who is world class, we have a weak squad with no considerable depth or the quality required to comfortably break the Top 6.

On the other hand - taking a bet like Dan James (which IMO, is a great squad player) could provide surprises to the upside. Put differently, a proven star could only do as much as to grant you your base case wishes and live up to expectations.

Believe the answer lies in between - I just don't see how we get there with our root problem not being solved (i.e. inadequate management). Anyhow, the club requires consistent and entertaining results that places us comfortably in the Top 6.The business model is clearly at risk without it.

 

[AneRu]

Maguire was overpriced because, in any market, we paid double what we should have paid.

This, people are just making excuses for an ill thought out decision. What Liverpool paid for VVD was justified because he had a clear upside whilst Maguire's pace limitation always meant that he was never going to be one of the best in the world. We are literally the only club that was stupid enough to consider and actually end up paying that much for him.

 

[Kostur]

No, we still reject things like inflation, deflation, electricity, the idiotic 'round Earth theory' and other shit. It's for morans anyway.

 

[JPRouve]

There is a difference between inflation and bad evaluation. It's not as if CBs and fullbacks of comparable level are regularly bought for that type of fees.

 

[Ishdalar]

Wan Bissaka and Maguire are bad examples, they weren't expensive due to inflation, but because you sign them from teams in your same league, that aren't craving peanuts and are looking to improve steadily with a constant stream of revenue.

When you move in a market gap where you don't really want unproven players but neither can attract world class ones you're bound to overpay. The difference between AWB and Cancelo wasn't 10M objectively, but since you can't fight for Cancelo, Danilo or anyone else in that bracket, you have to go for the next bracket for the closest yield or sign cheaper looking for potential.

If you look for that bracket in Spain, Italy or even France where clubs have difficulties sustaining themselves, you can fish for a good deal, if you look for those players in a strong economy, you'll pay more than the rest.

If you look at Sevilla with Monchi (I know, he failed at Roma) you see some of the basics to exploit on this market, if United can't get the best RB available in the market doesn't make much sense to pay a lot for a middle of the pack one since you're looking to, eventually, be better than Liverpool or City. You can sign 2 Dalots for the price of one AWB, then you'd have 3 players of the same potential (Dalot, Dalot 2 and Dalot3) giving you better odds to reap on their growth, Monchi spreads his inversions through 12 signings knowing most of them will likely fail, but a single Diego Carlos or Ocampos like this year can already make you recoup the whole investment, in United case, they could sign more players, with better potential, and the plus side of not having to sell them to reinvest the money, just keep them and continue building that way.

But so far, Woodward seems to be trying to replicate what Arsenal did in the last decade, we all know where that leads to.

 

[Robbie Boy]

Inflation or not, the Maguire transfer was an absolutely shocking transfer which is bordering negligence.

 

[Sassy Colin]

Thing is, you are overpaying even with inflation in mind. Maguire and Wan-Bissaka are great players but especially the Maguire price tag is just insane. You also overpaid when you signed Pogba given that this transfer happened before the Neymar move. 100 million € at that point in time would be like 200 million in todays market and that's still a sume reserved for the absolutely greatest talents out there. Mbappe or Sancho level.

And you are getting a reputation for it, I think. When good German players are about to move, United are usually among the favoured destinations among supporters because people expect that they'll get more momey from them.

But I think that also has to do with your preference of native players. They are simply more eypansive due to the EPL rule set and marketability. Not entirely sure that's a clever strategy though.

One of these is not like the other

 

[Nickelodeon]

I think since the Neymar move 2 years ago, football transfer fees is not the same as it was.
Time and time again in CAF we've seen posters keep mentioning AWB shouldn't cost 50 million pounds, same as Maguire.

Neither did other players signed from other clubs, Kepa from Atletico, VVD from Southampton, Romelu Lukuku from Everton, Nicolas Pepe from Lille.

Can't we all agree that these days, quality players are valued two times more than it was before Neymar transfer happened?

De Bruyne would've cost City 150 million pounds had it happened after Neymar, Di Maria would've cost us 120 million, Pogba would've cost us 180 million...list goes on.

AWB is easily a 25 million player, Maguire is 35-40 million player due to his long contract and premium of being an Englishmen.

Yes we could've have signed more unknown players like Daniel James, but when we seek for PL level talents, this is the level of money we're going to spend on ONE player.

So what is the problem? Why is it so hard for CAF posters to move on from the past?

Heck even FM19 understood this.

Inflation is supposed be a two-way street. Yet, nobody is paying 50 million for Smalling or 30 million for Jones. Lingard has been an English international till very recently and of reasonably young age but none of us expect any major transfer fee when we'll eventually decide to bin him.

So the reason CAF doesn't accept inflation is because

1) Our players are not good enough. The transfer fee is just an added stick to beat ourselves
2) Our rivals are buying players who are cheaper and better performing than ours. De Bruyne might've cost 150 Mn, but he didn't. Nor did Salah or Mane. And in the rare occasion that money has been splurged (Allison, VVD, Laporte and even fecking Kepa), the bang has been there for the buck.

 

[Zehner]

One of these is not like the other

Disagree. Similar level of talent.

 

[Sassy Colin]

Disagree. Similar level of talent.

Not even close

 

[amolbhatia50k]

What's the OP all about then? That were under spending?

 

[Tom Cato]

A few people will probably take this very personal, and might even get offended: But very few people here have any tangible clue as to a players true market value, even with comparable players. I see some say "Player x is worth 60 million. Then someone else goes "Player x is worth 40 million". So I'm curious where exactly the £20 million pounds in valuation went between the two estimates. No one ever gives a reasoning, just throw out a number.

But with that being said: A players value is whatever a club wants to pay for him. That is the real value. AWB was worth £50m~ Maguire was worth £80m

Comparable value and realize value are not the same. This principle is the same all over commerce. it's why you buy smaller snickers bars for a higher price, it's what you are willing to put on the table to buy one.

Inflation of football prices is, not at all shockingly, spearheaded by you, and me. The consumers who buy TV subscriptions. We are the reason inflation has gone so high up. The clubs have more money because of the enormous media deals, especially in Germany, England, Italy, Spain, France etc. A £20 million transfer today is a £3 million transfer 15 years ago.

Market purchased (in), which transfer window, contract length, club status, season form, age, statistics, players own reaction (stay/go, public/not public), negotiators skill, national team status, injury history, reputation (leader, locker room personality, aggression history).. All of these in one way or another can affect a players value. But most notably a players current league, current/previous season form, age and contract length are key factors in determining player value.

But the real decider is what the buying club is willing to offer. When that happens, we can debate until the moon falls from the sky, the real value i what we paid for him.

 

[adexkola]

How does one define inflation in football?

What is the equivalent of an apple in 1993 vs an apple in 2018, in football?

 

[Gandalf Greyhame]

How does one define inflation in football?

What is the equivalent of an apple in 1993 vs an apple in 2018, in football?

It's simple.

An apple cost less than a pound in 1993. In 2018, an apple costs 100k a week and plays in the hole for Manchester United.