Not sure how you wouldn't have Germany among the current favourites! An excellent squad and Flick as the manager. They're easily my #1. Spain I agree #2, though I do feel like they're lack of cutting edge might hold them back again.
I disagree with Netherlands. They have enough quality to surround some genuine world class pieces and a coach that is leagues ahead of all but 2-3 other coaches in the world Cup. That goes a long way. They're 3rd for me, but at worst I'd have them 5th.. don't think all the luck in the world is needed at all. You have the quality, just luck in terms of fitness for key players IMO. Argentina i cant speak too much for, heard a bit of both things for them, but we'll see. Same for Brazil. I'd put them 4/5 just because of that.
France have the players but don't have a system nor belief in the coach. It's like Low in the last few tournaments. It's a situation where they will flop until he's replaced IMO. Portugal the same, England the same. Great squads, no system, no belief.
The best chance for a dark horse run is Denmark again. They play great football, have a decent squad, a very good coach, great team atmosphere.
But basically .. there are 3 CL winning managers in the world Cup, all in charges of quality groups of players, up against a bunch of nobodies as managers. It has a big impact. I'd always put my money on the best coaches if they have the squad quality to compete, which imo they do.
I actually give Germany probably the least chances of even all the 'usual suspect outsiders' (NL, POR, ENG, BEL, BRA, no specific order). Does not mean that I think they are the worst of this group by the way. I think they have more quality than Netherlands for example, but they have all the pressure whereas we don't. Pressure doesn't help when you don't really have quality/confidence to back it up. That's why I feel like Germany could be headed for another failure.
I think Germany are in the same space as where Spain was in the last few tournaments. They've been in transition from the great team they had until a few years ago and in my opinion they haven't quite got there. The other day they couldn't beat Hungary and Germany was complaining about how they don't have any strikers. Then they go on to demolish Italy and score 5 goals, but so far if you ask me that's a one off. I have never been that impressed with players like Werner or Havertz and Sane has not become the great player he looked like he was headed to. Their attack has potential with Sane and Gnabry, but they are not consistent, and I don't think their defense or midfield is world class anymore. Neuer is still a top class goalkeeper, but other than that a declining Kroos and Mueller are possibly still their best players (alongside Kimmich). I'm sure they will be back, but I don't think they're there yet. They are in a tough group as well, I would not even be surprised if Japan upset them in the group stage. If they get through, I think they will go to QF max.
Furthermore I can see what you're saying about coaches. We definitely have one of the best coaches in the world and in my opinion the best coach at the WC, which could make a difference. But lacking offensive quality could really cost us. If you don't have top quality in attack in my book you're never a favorite. Of course you can still win, but I think there's just less chances. For example, if we go behind against a quality team that can go defensive on us, I don't see how we are suppose to repair that. In these situations you generally need pure attacking quality to make the difference and we don't have that. Of course once you get further into the tournament, the chance that you go behind at some point against a quality team get much bigger. That's why I don't see us as one of the favorites.
However with our team, Van Gaal as a coach and not having the pressure on us (especially in the later stages), this puts us in a decent outsider position and I'm sure the true favorites don't really fancy playing us. In the end I think we have decent chances against any opposition. Only against France I think we would be a huge underdog since their boring defensive counterattacking football really doesn't suit our team. We're likely to go behind against them in a counterattack and then being unable to repair. Other teams we can all beat I think, but we won't be a favorite and beating 2 or 3 teams of them will be very hard.
I agree with you on Denmark. They could be that one dark horse (along with Senegal), but still think the dark horse chances are smaller this WC because the top nations will have top players available that are not all completely fatigued from the season. Nevertheless a QF is always possible. Don't see much past that for any dark horse.