I know absolutely nothing about the animosity between these two countries, but saw this retweeted.
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Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan Conflict
- Thread starter Beans
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Posted this in the geopol thread, it has some good background on the enclaves which seem to be an ongoing source of tension, particularly Vorukh - https://caravanistan.com/kyrgyzstan/south/ferghana-valley-enclaves/
Feck sakes it's flaring all around Russia rn.
Seems they saw Russia fail to act between Azerbaijan and Armenia and decided they wouldn't interfere. The Azerbaijani have reportedly killed FSB security personnel, though it's not clear if they were targeted or unlucky.
They know that Russia isn't capable of intervening at the moment so the aggrieved nations will try to make gains while they can. I'm curious if eventually the Georgians will become emboldened enough to attack South Ossetia or Abkhazia.
I hope they don't, last time they got crushed by the same dysfunctional Russian army. Not sure what reforms they have made in their military, but it has the potential for Russia to change the focus and really batter a much smaller country than Ukraine.
Russia has removed substantial amounts of personnel and materiel from the occupied territories though. You'd think it's enough to hold it, but maybe not.
Read something recently which I think argued that Abkhazia is a bit of a different case, the Russians haven’t really been deeply involved in that conflict compared with South Ossetia, beyond having a few personnel stationed on the frontier line.
If things keep on going like that, there is serious potential to make conflicts in the Balkans during the 1990s look tiny in comparison. I just never thought that Central Asia was that kind of geopolitical powder keg.
Nietzsche said we hate the people nearer to us than those further away, as we have little experience with them. Not always true, of course, but it explains how, for example, people in Manchester and Liverpool could have more animosity than they do with about any other city in any other country.
Not only do countries next to each other not get along, but if you look in many countries you find large populations that want their own country.
Thanks for sharing, very interesting. Doesn't look like a solution is in sight in the short term, although the attempts at land swapping sound potentially promising.
Not knowing anything about the politics of these countries, this thread seems like a decent explainer:
She also recommends these Central Asia scholars on Twitter - @magdagul and @NickMegoran
Reminder of the border region in question:
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She also recommends these Central Asia scholars on Twitter - @magdagul and @NickMegoran
Reminder of the border region in question:
Not sure if this guy is an expert in the region, but sometimes he produces good stuff if you like YouTube explainers. He touched upon what posters said above regarding Russia, because this has happened before but back then Russia stopped it. This is from last year:
That map of that area just looks so enormously weird without knowing the context. It's been interesting reading about this - even if it makes me think more fighting is the only thing to expect here...Not knowing anything about the politics of these countries, this thread seems like a decent explainer:
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She also recommends these Central Asia scholars on Twitter - @magdagul and @NickMegoran
Reminder of the border region in question:
De facto the most important person in Georgia is Bidzina Ivanishvili who has spent half of his life in Russia (becoming a billionaire in the process) and he's supposedly still very close to some people in Russia. He also understands that Russia is Georgia's biggest economical partner and it's not as easy to diversify export for them as it is for Ukraine. Plus, Saakashvili is his main political rival (even though he's detained in a hospital) and he blames him for the beginning of the 08' war.
So yeah, unless the Russian Federation starts to literally fall apart like the Soviet Union did, I doubt that they'll do anything. They are hoping for a diplomatic solution to all this but Putin isn't going to give away what he already has — especially since he's fighting to gain more territory elsewhere. Again, maybe when there's a different government — both in Russia and in Georgia...
What is important is that Azerbaijan and Tajikistan aren't invading Russian or proxy-Russian territories, they're simply solving their own issues (sounds horrible) with different countries in an understandable hope that Russia, which usually acts as a balancing force in the region (this sounds even worse given the context), is too busy in Ukraine to give a crap about anything else that doesn't directly concern it.
Putin calls for de-escalation as Kyrgyz-Tajik border conflict death toll nears 100
Story by Reuters
(Reuters)Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan said on Sunday nearly 100 people had died in their border conflict, as a fragile ceasefire between the Central Asian nations extended into a second day and their mutual ally Russia urged a de-escalation.
The former Soviet republics clashed over a border dispute from September 14 to 16, accusing each other of using tanks, mortars, rocket artillery and assault drones to attack outposts and nearby settlements.
Both countries border China, while Tajikistan also has a long frontier with Afghanistan.
Long stretches of the border separating the two ex-Soviet states are contested. Clashes in April 2021 left more than 50 dead and raised the prospect of broader conflict.
Central Asian border issues largely stem from the Soviet era, when Moscow tried to divide the region between groups which were often settled among other ethnicities.
Kyrgyzstan late on Sunday reported an additional 13 deaths from the fighting, adding to an earlier toll of 46.
The ex-Soviet state also said 102 people had been injured.
Earlier, Kyrgyzstan said it evacuated about 137,000 people from the conflict area. The government declared Monday a day of mourning for the victims.
Kyrgyz media, which called the conflict an invasion, reported on Sunday some of the evacuees have already started returning to their homes.
Tajikistan on Sunday reported that 35 people were killed. It has not reported any mass evacuations.
Tajikistan's Foreign Ministry said Kyrgyzstan continued a media campaign against it and noted that Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov used the term "enemy" to refer to Tajikistan in his Saturday address.
The two sides on September 16 agreed to a ceasefire, which has largely held up despite several alleged incidents of shelling.
Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke by telephone to Japarov and veteran Tajik President Emomali Rakhmon on Sunday, the Kremlin said.
Putin urged the sides to prevent further escalation and to take measures to resolve the situation "exclusively by peaceful, political and diplomatic means as soon as possible," offering assistance, his office said in a statement.
https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/18/asia/kyrgystan-tajikstan-border-conflict-putin-intl-hnk/index.html
Story by Reuters
(Reuters)Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan said on Sunday nearly 100 people had died in their border conflict, as a fragile ceasefire between the Central Asian nations extended into a second day and their mutual ally Russia urged a de-escalation.
The former Soviet republics clashed over a border dispute from September 14 to 16, accusing each other of using tanks, mortars, rocket artillery and assault drones to attack outposts and nearby settlements.
Both countries border China, while Tajikistan also has a long frontier with Afghanistan.
Long stretches of the border separating the two ex-Soviet states are contested. Clashes in April 2021 left more than 50 dead and raised the prospect of broader conflict.
Central Asian border issues largely stem from the Soviet era, when Moscow tried to divide the region between groups which were often settled among other ethnicities.
Kyrgyzstan late on Sunday reported an additional 13 deaths from the fighting, adding to an earlier toll of 46.
The ex-Soviet state also said 102 people had been injured.
Earlier, Kyrgyzstan said it evacuated about 137,000 people from the conflict area. The government declared Monday a day of mourning for the victims.
Kyrgyz media, which called the conflict an invasion, reported on Sunday some of the evacuees have already started returning to their homes.
Tajikistan on Sunday reported that 35 people were killed. It has not reported any mass evacuations.
Tajikistan's Foreign Ministry said Kyrgyzstan continued a media campaign against it and noted that Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov used the term "enemy" to refer to Tajikistan in his Saturday address.
The two sides on September 16 agreed to a ceasefire, which has largely held up despite several alleged incidents of shelling.
Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke by telephone to Japarov and veteran Tajik President Emomali Rakhmon on Sunday, the Kremlin said.
Putin urged the sides to prevent further escalation and to take measures to resolve the situation "exclusively by peaceful, political and diplomatic means as soon as possible," offering assistance, his office said in a statement.
https://www.cnn.com/2022/09/18/asia/kyrgystan-tajikstan-border-conflict-putin-intl-hnk/index.html
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Isn't Saakashvili a Ukrainian citizen now? I thought he was one time governor of Odessa?
He has Ukrainian citizenship but he didn't revoke his Georgian citizenship and returned to Georgia trying to bluff his way into winning the election but it seems like he has miscalculated something.