Matheus Cunha | Official | signed the first day of the window

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isitreal91 said:
In theory i would agree with you, but i'm a complete xG novice.

I think it has to do with the quality of his chances...from the TF article...


"Cunha’s put together a sensational highlight reel this season, scoring 15 goals, with quite a few of them being absolute bangers from outside the box. He’s one of the world’s great xG overperformers this year, recording those goals off just 6.87 xG. He’s getting a remarkably low percentage of his shots from high value area inside the box, and takes a ton of shots from outside of the box and wide, acute angles.
I think Cunha is definitely much better than the average attacker at shooting from outside of the box, but this is not a sustainable finishing rate, even for an elite shooter. This is a Messi or Ronaldo level of overperformance, without the Messi/Ronaldo level of huge chances from within 12 yards. Cunha will not do this again"

I listen to them just for something "extra" in terms of a footballing perspective, i don't think stats are gospel. However, Ted has a pretty good standing in football so he's no mug, even if he tries to sound one sometimes.
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One of my major problems with this kind of analysis is that while it might be somewhat fair to say that the same level of overperformance is not sustainable, xG isn't a static number from season to season. There are countless factors that go into a players performances and any of those changing could completely change the stats that some people seem to think are gospel. Cunha is moving to a new team, will be playing with completely new players and playing under a completely new manager.

Two high profile examples of big swings in xG this season are Raphinha and Dembele. Both have a significantly higher xG than they've had in previous seasons and both are having seasons that have seen them mentioned as Ballon d'Or contenders.

Who's to say Cunha's xG doesn't go up to 12 next season and then he would only need to outperform it by a much smaller amount to match his goal tally from this current season. Obviously it could go the other way as well, because irregardless of all the stats in the world, there are no certainties in football.
 
Yay! the walking stat gets another post!

We should post his walking stats after every good/bad game…it could even have a dedicated thread.
 
IrishRedDevil said:
The fact we didn't drag this out for 6/7/8 weeks is making me teary.
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It’s surely something Amorim has discussed with the board that he wants most of the transfer activity done for 1st July or whenever pre season starts
 
Pexbo said:
There’s two types of players.

Players that get an average number of chances but their finishing is above average do they score a lot of goals by outperforming their xG.


Players that are excellent at getting into positions but are average at finishing so they score a lot of goals because they get a lot of opportunities.


Then you have the absolutely elite players like Salah, Lewandowski, Kane etc who will get an above average amount of chances and score above xG therefore scoring an elite number of goals.
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Cunha is unlikely to have high xG given he plays for Wolves and typically plays as a 10 behind the main striker. For a number 10 like Cunha you'd always want them to fall in the first bucket you described
 
DanNistelrooy said:
Cunha is unlikely to have high xG given he plays for Wolves and typically plays as a 10 behind the main striker. For a number 10 like Cunha you'd always want them to fall in the first bucket you described
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I would be more worried if he underperformes his xG.
 
DanNistelrooy said:
Surely you want players who are outperforming their xG as it shows they are capable of scoring from chances they wouldn't be expected to score from. Cunha should instantly become our best attacker (low bar granted) - I've seen a few comments about the disciplinary issues but I think until this season that hasn't been an issue - we need players with some character/bite too. With that said he needs to be joined by a striker and another forward if Garnacho, Sancho and Rashford leave as expected.
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If you own the player, yes. Because you want as many goals as possible from them, so the more they overperform the better.

If you're looking to sign a player then you ideally want the opposite. In other words players who have underperformed on otherwise elite numbers. Because those are players the market is more likely to undervalue.

Part of Liverpool's success in the transfer market came in specifically targeting those sort of players, with the likes of Mane, Firmino and Jota having underperformed their xG the season(s) before arriving at Liverpool.

Because the key thing to understand is that if a given player massively under or overperforms their xG in one or two seasons, they're still much more likely to revert to the mean than they are to sustain that over/under performance.

And in order to conclude someone is actually an above/below finisher based on how they perform relative to xG, you need a bigger sample of them doing so than just one or two seasons.

The worry if we were to sign all of Cunha, Mbeumo and Delap is that we'd be doing the exact opposite of that Liverpool strategy. Because although they've scored 47 league goals between them this season, that was based on around 24 non-penalty xG.

That's an extremely big red flag, as those numbers are screaming out that they won't keep scoring at that rate.

The only mitigating factor against that is that their release clauses & remaining time on contract mean their fees aren't as inflated as they might have been in other circumstances.
 
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isitreal91 said:
I listen to "The Transfer Flow" podcast not sure if anyone else does here.

Creator of Statsbomb, worked for Brentford etc. I mean he blows his own trumpet every podcast which is tiring, but they know their stuff.

They seem certain UTD are overpaying quite a bit, as he has outperformed XG a lot and that isn't sustainable (im not stato so i've no idea why). However, i do see some idiot behaviourial issues from Cunha, and if you combine that with the XG question/price, surely this is just another typical UTD signing from recent years?
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Supports : Liverpool

Have you watched Cunha? He’s an excellent player, prove In this league, wants to join and has characteristics that we both need and suit managers tactics.

On to next one.
 
Crazy how this thread is almost dead while we are awaiting his announcement. Honestly one of the most exciting transfers I can recall in recent history as a proven (PL) attacker entering his prime. Only others I can think of is Lukaku and Di Maria - and this is a more exiting transfer than both in my opinion!
 
Talented, technical, driven and dangerous - and seems like a good character in the dressing room too.

What's not to like.
 
GreatDane said:
Talented, technical, driven and dangerous - and seems like a good character in the dressing room too.

What's not to like.
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Oh yeah looking forward to seeing him in Utd shirt, now want us to pair him up with Mbeumo before Newcastle
 
GreatDane said:
Talented, technical, driven and dangerous - and seems like a good character in the dressing room too.

What's not to like.
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He will come into this absolute shambles of a team and get dragged down to the level of them quite fast, after a few weeks his motivation will drop because he will realise anything he tries gets wasted by the crap around him.

This team can't even put a string of 10 passes together, they lose the ball constantly, they constantly make poor crosses, slow side to side passing at the back, static movement etc.

Unless there is a drastic sale of 8 - 10 players with 5 or 6 brought in, I don't expect much from Cunha. There is only so much one player can do.
 
The holy trinity 68 said:
He will come into this absolute shambles of a team and get dragged down to the level of them quite fast, after a few weeks his motivation will drop because he will realise anything he tries gets wasted by the crap around him.

This team can't even put a string of 10 passes together, they lose the ball constantly, they constantly make poor crosses, slow side to side passing at the back, static movement etc.

Unless there is a drastic sale of 8 - 10 players with 5 or 6 brought in, I don't expect much from Cunha. There is only so much one player can do.
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Best not sign anyone then.
 
The holy trinity 68 said:
He will come into this absolute shambles of a team and get dragged down to the level of them quite fast, after a few weeks his motivation will drop because he will realise anything he tries gets wasted by the crap around him.

This team can't even put a string of 10 passes together, they lose the ball constantly, they constantly make poor crosses, slow side to side passing at the back, static movement etc.

Unless there is a drastic sale of 8 - 10 players with 5 or 6 brought in, I don't expect much from Cunha. There is only so much one player can do.
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That's the spirit.
 
GreatDane said:
That's the spirit.
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It's being realistic, except Bruno, when has any player we bought in the past 5 years came in and improved the team straight away? We need a lot of players brought in to bring a new level of enthusiasm to this team. Cunha is class, but it is hard to get excited and think him alone will make that much difference.
 
The holy trinity 68 said:
It's being realistic, except Bruno, when has any player we bought in the past 5 years came in and improved the team straight away? We need a lot of players brought in to bring a new level of enthusiasm to this team. Cunha is class, but it is hard to get excited and think him alone will make that much difference.
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You're right, no argument here.

But I think that nobody is expecting Cunha alone is to come here and fix thing but quite contrary that getting Cunha is just one step in the right way.
 
GreatDane said:
Cunha and Mbeumo in fight alone will make us better, with their talent even more..
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I really hope we can sign Mbeumo as well, he runs for days, hard working, great movement and combined with Cunha will add a new level of dynamism to the front line.

Cunha alone won't make much difference but the combination of them both would transform this team. We still need someone better than Dorgu at LWB as he needs a few years to develop, and a better CM than Ugarte to play alongside Bruno.
 
sincher said:
Should fit in really well - he spent longer than any other player 'walking' this season according to this article from the beeb: https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/articles/cn4gjy3wxr3o
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Cunha’s poor work rate out of possession and his attitude problems are reasons Wolves fans are not disappointed to see him go.

It may also explain why other clubs were not trying to sign him.

Perhaps Amorim can improve his level of performance as he did so many other players over the past 6 months.
/s
 
sullydnl said:
If you own the player, yes. Because you want as many goals as possible from them, so the more they overperform the better.

If you're looking to sign a player then you ideally want the opposite. In other words players who have underperformed on otherwise elite numbers. Because those are players the market is more likely to undervalue.

Part of Liverpool's success in the transfer market came in specifically targeting those sort of players, with the likes of Mane, Firmino and Jota having underperformed their xG the season(s) before arriving at Liverpool.

Because the key thing to understand is that if a given player massively under or overperforms their xG in one or two seasons, they're still much more likely to revert to the mean than they are to sustain that over/under performance.

And in order to conclude someone is actually an above/below finisher based on how they perform relative to xG, you need a bigger sample of them doing so than just one or two seasons.

The worry if we were to sign all of Cunha, Mbeumo and Delap is that we'd be doing the exact opposite of that Liverpool strategy. Because although they've scored 47 league goals between them this season, that was based on around 24 non-penalty xG.

That's an extremely big red flag, as those numbers are screaming out that they won't keep scoring at that rate.

The only mitigating factor against that is that their release clauses & remaining time on contract mean their fees aren't as inflated as they might have been in other circumstances.
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Underperforming xG could also be evidence of being a poor finisher. I'm willing to bet that Liverpool's analysis went much deeper than just xG underperformance. Plus Mane's two seasons at Southampton before moving to Liverpool averages out to 0, neither over nor under performing.

There are examples of the opposite too, City signing Haaland, Madrid signing Mbappe to name a couple. Clubs signing xG overperformers knowing they're good finishers.

Cunha has overperformed his xG in all 3 seasons he's been in the PL (first one was half a season), so it's not an unreasonable assumption that he's a good finisher and could continue to overperform.

Even then, we're one of the worst teams for xG underperformance in the league. If he exactly matches his xG here, it'll be a huge improvement on what we've got!
 
I just love him as a player and really glad we are close to signing him. He has been an absolute menace whenever we played Wolves. That's the kind of players i always want us to sign who are destroying our defenders left right and center, because whatever you say about the defenders, they are all very good and if a player is beating them for fun, then you want a player like that in your team.

I think the lack of excitement from myself and others is mainly due to knowing we need a lot more, its like giving 4 to 5 exams and getting the first one spot on, you are happy that it went well, but concerned about the others, because in order to pass our transfer window we do need another Right sided 10, ST, CM and GK. Unless we get these players we will struggle.
 
JoseM4 said:
Cunha’s poor work rate out of possession and his attitude problems are reasons Wolves fans are not disappointed to see him go.

It may also explain why other clubs were not trying to sign him.

Perhaps Amorim can improve his level of performance as he did so many other players over the past 6 months.
/s
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Aah we’re back to this
 
The Hilton said:
Underperforming xG could also be evidence of being a poor finisher. I'm willing to bet that Liverpool's analysis went much deeper than just xG underperformance. Plus Mane's two seasons at Southampton before moving to Liverpool averages out to 0, neither over nor under performing.

There are examples of the opposite too, City signing Haaland, Madrid signing Mbappe to name a couple. Clubs signing xG overperformers knowing they're good finishers.

Cunha has overperformed his xG in all 3 seasons he's been in the PL (first one was half a season), so it's not an unreasonable assumption that he's a good finisher and could continue to overperform.

Even then, we're one of the worst teams for xG underperformance in the league. If he exactly matches his xG here, it'll be a huge improvement on what we've got!
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Exactly this. Surely a player who outperforms xg consistently is just a better finisher. It's like saying the guy in class who got straight A grades when the average was a C was just having a good spell in tests, when the truth is they are performing better for a reason.
 
HackeyC said:
Exactly this. Surely a player who outperforms xg consistently is just a better finisher. It's like saying the guy in class who got straight A grades when the average was a C was just having a good spell in tests, when the truth is they are performing better for a reason.
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How many xG overperformers do you think exist in the entire world over .. say 5 seasons? And when they overperform, by how much?

Salah for example overperformed his xG by <5% this season. Over his entire career, it drops to 3%. Messi over his entire career overperformed by 15%.

Cunha's xG overperformance this season is off the charts and if you look back a bit, he doesn't get anywhere close to the overperformance this season in any of his past seasons. https://understat.com/player/7080

So don't tl;dr don't expect him to overperform if he comes here.
 
Teja said:
How many xG overperformers do you think exist in the entire world over .. say 5 seasons? And when they overperform, by how much?

Salah for example overperformed his xG by <5% this season. Over his entire career, it drops to 3%. Messi over his entire career overperformed by 15%.

Cunha's xG overperformance this season is off the charts and if you look back a bit, he doesn't get anywhere close to the overperformance this season in any of his past seasons. https://understat.com/player/7080

So don't tl;dr don't expect him to overperform if he comes here.
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I think your tl;dr needs a small edit - don't expect him to overperform to the same level he has this season if he comes here.

He's overperformed his xG during his entire time in the PL, it's fair to expect that to continue, but likely not at the same level as this season.

As I've said before though, even if he just manages to match his xG, that would be a big improvement on our current awful finishing.
 
The Hilton said:
I think your tl;dr needs a small edit - don't expect him to overperform to the same level he has this season if he comes here.

He's overperformed his xG during his entire time in the PL, it's fair to expect that to continue, but likely not at the same level as this season.

As I've said before though, even if he just manages to match his xG, that would be a big improvement on our current awful finishing.
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I don't think it's that hard to find a player that can match his xG. The problem is our total xG accumulation is also quite low, so what if he comes here, gets 7xG (Garna levels) and scores 7 or 8 goals instead of Garnacho's 6? Hardly a life changing number. Looks like Garna has 9.5xG, so it'll be 10-11 instead of 6. Which could be some difference.

The other problem is his xG / shot is abysmally low (0.08, 20th percentile) because he has a bit of a main man syndrome and shoots a lot from deep. I don't know how that will translate to a bigger club. Will we just allow him to carry and shoot as he pleases from deep? Will he accumulate the same xG here?

Anyway, my thoughts are:
  • 62.5M is a ridiculous overpay for him - he has some clear downsides. If we have no problems getting all our targets (CF, Right #10, CM at least) then maybe it's fine to overpay.
  • I feel INEOS are overpaying because they are under pressure to immediately improve performances. It's INEOS's manager and squad at this point. This is a mistake we've made over and over again over the past decade and it looks like we're going to make it again.
  • If you're looking for positives, don't look at goals or xG with Cunha, look for stats / eye-test that supports a narrative around him improving our general chance play (build up, chance creation etc.) and think of the make up of the rest of the squad to maximize his strengths and minimize his weaknesses.

Overall, not a fan of the transfer until the summer window closes and we see the squad comp for next season.
 
Teja said:
I don't think it's that hard to find a player that can match his xG. The problem is our total xG accumulation is also quite low, so what if he comes here, gets 7xG (Garna levels) and scores 7 or 8 goals instead of Garnacho's 6? Hardly a life changing number. Looks like Garna has 9.5xG, so it'll be 10-11 instead of 6. Which could be some difference.

The other problem is his xG / shot is abysmally low (0.08, 20th percentile) because he has a bit of a main man syndrome and shoots a lot from deep. I don't know how that will translate to a bigger club. Will we just allow him to carry and shoot as he pleases from deep? Will he accumulate the same xG here?

Anyway, my thoughts are:
  • 62.5M is a ridiculous overpay for him - he has some clear downsides. If we have no problems getting all our targets (CF, Right #10, CM at least) then maybe it's fine to overpay.
  • I feel INEOS are overpaying because they are under pressure to immediately improve performances. It's INEOS's manager and squad at this point. This is a mistake we've made over and over again over the past decade and it looks like we're going to make it again.
  • If you're looking for positives, don't look at goals or xG with Cunha, look for stats / eye-test that supports a narrative around him improving our general chance play (build up, chance creation etc.) and think of the make up of the rest of the squad to maximize his strengths and minimize his weaknesses.

Overall, not a fan of the transfer until the summer window closes and we see the squad comp for next season.
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I think it's safe to assume he'll increase his xG here to beyond what Garnacho would manage. Cunha is a significantly better player. He's a better, more accurate, shot, a better crosser, a better dribbler, plays more key passes, wins way more duels, has way more shot creating actions, he's even better in most defensive metrics.

There's a lot to like about the signing, it's a significant direct improvement on what we currently have.
 
Fahad Jawaid said:
I just love him as a player and really glad we are close to signing him. He has been an absolute menace whenever we played Wolves. That's the kind of players i always want us to sign who are destroying our defenders left right and center, because whatever you say about the defenders, they are all very good and if a player is beating them for fun, then you want a player like that in your team.

I think the lack of excitement from myself and others is mainly due to knowing we need a lot more, its like giving 4 to 5 exams and getting the first one spot on, you are happy that it went well, but concerned about the others, because in order to pass our transfer window we do need another Right sided 10, ST, CM and GK. Unless we get these players we will struggle.
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Yeah we definitely need all of those positions you mentioned plus maybe CCB and another midfielder. I also think there would be more excitement if we could attract a top striker despite our awful season.I am happy he backs himself to succeed because we haven't had many players recently with that self belief.
 
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Is he mad? He is a little actually, has a bit of twattery about him, which I always like.

But OT has been a graveyard for decent players this last 12 years and more, and our record on Brazilians is fkn shocking:

Kleberson - about 2004 on the way to play football, a mate announced in the car 'Has anyone actually seen footage of him playing in that World Cup Final?'
Possebon - can barely remember him.
Anderson - I thought he was less than average even from that first match v Liverpool. Gave the ball away cheaply. His contract extension was up there with United's Most Stupid Contract Renewals, and that is a strong list, with our top scorer on the top of the pile.
The Twins. Rabio was reasonable, Fafael less so. Or was it the other way around? We'll never know.
Pereira - he looked ok, but we gave up on him fairly quickly. Looks fine at Fulham.
Fred - tried hard, worked hard, was never a DM so you could say he was out of position most of his United career. Still, massively limited footballer for a 50M Brazilian.
Telles - I watched the pens from the Europa final the other week. Could not for the life of me remember who it was.
Antony - nowt against him (unlike our other current loanees), except that he only ever shot.
Casemiro (should be pronounced Cazzy, not Cassy btw) - top quality footballer. Years too late. We wore him out in the first 8 months, took him 2 years to recover. I still keep hoping the Saudis will take him off our hands though.
Cunha - seems to be a done deal. He really looks the part, and has plenty of quality and snap in his game. Surely... SURELY!... we can't feck this one up? We're long overdue having a nice, tidy Brazilian.
 
Teja said:
I don't think it's that hard to find a player that can match his xG. The problem is our total xG accumulation is also quite low, so what if he comes here, gets 7xG (Garna levels) and scores 7 or 8 goals instead of Garnacho's 6? Hardly a life changing number. Looks like Garna has 9.5xG, so it'll be 10-11 instead of 6. Which could be some difference.

The other problem is his xG / shot is abysmally low (0.08, 20th percentile) because he has a bit of a main man syndrome and shoots a lot from deep. I don't know how that will translate to a bigger club. Will we just allow him to carry and shoot as he pleases from deep? Will he accumulate the same xG here?

Anyway, my thoughts are:
  • 62.5M is a ridiculous overpay for him - he has some clear downsides. If we have no problems getting all our targets (CF, Right #10, CM at least) then maybe it's fine to overpay.
  • I feel INEOS are overpaying because they are under pressure to immediately improve performances. It's INEOS's manager and squad at this point. This is a mistake we've made over and over again over the past decade and it looks like we're going to make it again.
  • If you're looking for positives, don't look at goals or xG with Cunha, look for stats / eye-test that supports a narrative around him improving our general chance play (build up, chance creation etc.) and think of the make up of the rest of the squad to maximize his strengths and minimize his weaknesses.

Overall, not a fan of the transfer until the summer window closes and we see the squad comp for next season.
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Bringing back an old post to put this fee in context. I don’t think we are overpaying by as much as people think we are.

McLvnsMuse said:
This Cunha signing is interesting. No strong opinions but it may be helpful to anchor with useful comparisons.

Cunha will be 26 by the start of next season. He has 36 G+A in 58 games his last two seasons for wolves.

Jota, Olise & Trossard transfer comparisons below.

PlayerG+A two seasons prior to transferAge at transferFee (Year)
Diego Jota23 (67 games)23£41m (2020)
Michael Olise29 (56 games)22£51m (2024)
Trossard20 (50 games)28£27m (2023)

PS. Forgot to include James Maddison.

39 G+A in 65 games. Joined spurs at 26 for £41m



Stats & figures from Google. Someone with time can double check accuracy
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McLvnsMuse said:
Bringing back an old post to put this fee in context. I don’t think we are overpaying by as much as people think we are.
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Yep this is very useful thank you! Olise would've gone for more had it not been for the release clause. I was hoping ~Jota fee + inflation, so ~45-50m.

Madison was also an expiring contract situation so seems undervalued.
 
It's fair to be skeptical about his ability to maintain his level of production, but even his underlying numbers and overall production.

He also is a threat both as a dribbler and playmaker. His passing variety is also far better than any of our current 10s, save Bruno, and along with Amad his ability to receive the ball, turn, and get by defenders 1v1 is massively needed in this squad.

I do think it's an overpay as an isolated transfer, but it's worth waiting to see how the whole window works before evaluating all of it.
 
Jesus bore off with the XG again. Sure it was stated by mods to start a stats thread if you want to discuss it for page after page
 
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