Heffo
Full Member
In theory i would agree with you, but i'm a complete xG novice.
I think it has to do with the quality of his chances...from the TF article...
"Cunha’s put together a sensational highlight reel this season, scoring 15 goals, with quite a few of them being absolute bangers from outside the box. He’s one of the world’s great xG overperformers this year, recording those goals off just 6.87 xG. He’s getting a remarkably low percentage of his shots from high value area inside the box, and takes a ton of shots from outside of the box and wide, acute angles.
I think Cunha is definitely much better than the average attacker at shooting from outside of the box, but this is not a sustainable finishing rate, even for an elite shooter. This is a Messi or Ronaldo level of overperformance, without the Messi/Ronaldo level of huge chances from within 12 yards. Cunha will not do this again"
I listen to them just for something "extra" in terms of a footballing perspective, i don't think stats are gospel. However, Ted has a pretty good standing in football so he's no mug, even if he tries to sound one sometimes.
One of my major problems with this kind of analysis is that while it might be somewhat fair to say that the same level of overperformance is not sustainable, xG isn't a static number from season to season. There are countless factors that go into a players performances and any of those changing could completely change the stats that some people seem to think are gospel. Cunha is moving to a new team, will be playing with completely new players and playing under a completely new manager.
Two high profile examples of big swings in xG this season are Raphinha and Dembele. Both have a significantly higher xG than they've had in previous seasons and both are having seasons that have seen them mentioned as Ballon d'Or contenders.
Who's to say Cunha's xG doesn't go up to 12 next season and then he would only need to outperform it by a much smaller amount to match his goal tally from this current season. Obviously it could go the other way as well, because irregardless of all the stats in the world, there are no certainties in football.