Bynum may be Orlando’s best option
If the Magic deal Dwight Howard, they would be hard-pressed to find a better building block than Lakers center Andrew Bynum.
It is madness in the NBA now, with reports flying about which agent called which team and vice versa – all as teams try to understand the implications of a collective bargaining agreement that still isn’t finalized. But amid all of the rumors — legit, floated and otherwise — one stands out: The Lakers are willing to send center Andrew Bynum, Jim Buss’ golden boy, to Orlando in a deal for potential 2012 free agent Dwight Howard, according to Ken Berger of CBS Sports.
There is more drama surrounding the Buss family, as Jerry shifts control to his children, than there is in two dozen of the NBA’s ownership groups combined. Jim, Jerry’s designated successor atop the organization, is somehow already unpopular, tagged as gruff and hard-headed, lacking in loyalty to key members of the Phil Jackson regime (especially Brian Shaw), a bit hot-and-cold with his allegedly brainier sister, Jeanie, and stubborn when it comes to Bynum, Jim’s personal draft pick. There is truth in some of this, according to reporters who live the Los Angeles beat, but it’s also true that Jim has developed a reputation before he has had time to put anything like a personal stamp on the league’s glamour franchise. And as Roland Lazenby, a Lakers guru, pointed out on Twitter today, a willingness to move Bynum in the “right deal” belies that reputation and might be a sign that perhaps Jim is smarter than we think.
Let’s be clear: If you can get Dwight Howard, and the primary cost in on-court talent is Andrew Bynum, you make the deal in a second. There are other costs, to be sure. The Magic will want more than Bynum, which might mean losing forward Lamar Odom and finding a third team — at additional cost — to supply a first-round draft pick or some other asset the Magic might want. Orlando could force forward Hedo Turkoglu’s toxic deal on the Lakers. The new rules on extend-and-trade deals would cost Howard a year and some cash, just as it would point guards Chris Paul and Deron Williams, but Howard starts out with a higher base salary than either of those players.
Most interesting of all: Acquiring and extending Howard would leave the Lakers with about $70 million committed alone to Howard, Kobe Bryant and Pau Gasol in 2013-14, and that doesn’t include Metta World Peace’s $7.7 million option or Steve Blake’s $4 million guaranteed for that season. The Lakers will likely rid themselves of both by then, via amnesty, trade or buyout, but acquiring another star makes it almost certain — if it wasn’t already — that the Lakers will pay the luxury tax in each of the next three seasons.
The new, harsher tax rates, starting at $1.50 per dollar for the first $5 million over the tax line, kick in during that third season, and the Lakers would face the extra-severe repeater penalties if they cross the line a fourth straight time in 2014-15. Go just $15 million over the tax line in that fourth year, and you’re facing a tax bill of $43.75 million under the new rules. The Lakers, with a new TV deal worth $150 million per year, will be the ultimate test case of whether the new tax rates, combined with a more aggressive revenue-sharing program, can stop the richest teams from spending.
But that’s money, and the Lakers could take steps to mitigate that bill over time. In basketball terms, you go after Howard and deal with the other stuff later. Howard, who turns 26 next week, is less than two years older than Bynum, and yet he is so much more accomplished — and not only because Bynum misses 20 or 30 games every season.
Bynum, through no fault of his own, has never been the first option in Los Angeles’ offense, and rarely even the second. Still, in those limited chances, he has put up an All-Star-level Player Efficiency Rating in each of the last four seasons, he’s one of the league’s best offensive rebounders and he’s a brute in the post. He has improved as a passer, and he could absolutely develop into the sort of post player you build an offense around. Heck, new Lakers coach Mike Brown sounds ready to move in that direction this season, if Bynum is still around.
The Magic, stuck in what appears to be an awful situation, will be hard-pressed to find a better potential building block in any Howard trade.
But Howard is quicker on his feet and more experienced dealing with the responsibility of carrying an offense — the double teams, the stunts from defenders and the difficulty of swinging the ball to the right teammate. Howard isn’t an ace at this stuff — witness his high turnover rate — but we know he can lead a good NBA offense. Surround him with Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol and some shooters (an issue in Los Angeles, by the way), and the league is in trouble.
It’s on defense where Howard is just on another level. Bynum is slower and less willing (or able) to disrupt pick-and-rolls on the perimeter. This forced Jackson to redesign the Lakers’ defense midstream last season, opting for a scheme in which Bynum sagged back into the paint on pick-and-rolls, corralling the ball-handler as a Lakers guard chased that ball-handler from behind. They ran into trouble against pick-and-pop big men because Bynum’s sagging took him far from those players when they popped out. That, in turn, forced all sorts of help rotations, where Bynum can struggle.
He’s a willing helper and a good shot-blocker with long arms, but he can’t close space as quickly as Howard. He sometimes gets confused, taking an extra beat to find the right shooter to chase or simply pursuing the wrong one; he was part of the communication breakdowns that plagued the Lakers during their defensive collapse against Dallas in the playoffs.
Some of this will come with time. But Howard is always going to be faster and more agile, he’s always been healthier and he is already the league’s finest defensive player. Losing a young 7-footer doesn’t hurt if you get back a better young 7-footer. Losing Odom, if the deal requires it, might actually be the larger short-term cost in terms of the Lakers’ on-court talent. Even if Odom might be a bit less valuable outside the triangle offense, the Lakers are not a deep team, and trading two key players for one hurts in that regard.
Still, this is Dwight Howard. You get him and deal with the other stuff later. Wish the Magic luck, everyone.
