Well, you only have to watch the games to make a judgement. For instance, we deserved a draw vs Chelsea, we deserved nothing vs Barca, we deserved to lose to Wolves and apparently we didn't deserve to lose to Arsenal (didnt watch it). Unfortunately, for us, we can only play well for small periods in a football match and, as seen over the last few months, it isn't good enough.
Ole Gunnar Solskjær | 2021/22 Discussion
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Well nothing important is going to happen between now and the end of the season anyway. So this is all moot.
At the end of the day, over the course of his time in charge, Ole has picked up the third highest amount of points in the league. Which is comfortably ahead of expectations for next season as a whole. Sure, we had a shitty run-in. Just like two of our main rivals (Spurs and Arsenal) It's a blank slate again for next season, the first season in charge of a squad of players he can call his own. I just wish fans were willing to afford the manager that much patience. It's not a huge ask.
But you must surely accept that most teams see an improvement in form for a while after a new manager is brought in? And possibly moreso (although this is just gut feeling rather than hard fact) when the previous manager has been unpopular and the new man is a nice guy, with a pressureless brief to calm the waters and bring the dressing room back together.
So if you adjust for that 'new manager honeymoon period' that the current stats have no way of measuring and applying then things are actually a lot more worrying.
Teams usually have a bounce but not one that has them as the best of the rest for over half a season. We've genuinely improved as a side past "new manager bounce". Shit mistakes cost us, obviously performances aren't amazing but rhats the level of our squad. You take it as a whole and Ole has outperformed everyone apart from Pep and Klopp, which you still wouldnt expect when you look at our squad.
Since people love to talk stats and xGs,
Huddersfield 0.74 - 1.88 ManUtd
ManUtd 0.51 - 0.53 ManCity
Everton 1.5 - 0.3 Manutd
Manutd 2.65 - 1.43 West Ham
Wolves 1.65 - 2.04 ManUtd
Manutd 1.98 - 1.35 Watford
Arsenal 1.53 - 2.37 ManUtd
So at least going by popular model here, we have created good number of chances but our finishing sucks.
I've no clue about xG. But lets look at the stats from the West Ham game:
They had more possession, more shots, same shots on target, more corners and fouled less. To the human eye, we were utterly out played at home to West Ham - a wonder save and the bar (IIRC) saved us from a deserved loss. If my reading of xG is correct, it has us winning the game at almost double the margin which, in truth, simply isn't true.
Edit: we scored two pens as well and I can't even remember a single chance from that game.
If you go through the lost game stats, you will see few where we dominated possession, shots and on target everything. It swings both ways. You think few of our wins are luck but nothing on our losses when we played well and created enough chances.
Arsenal 2 - 0 Man Utd (PL)
Wolves 2 - 1 Man Utd (FA Cup)
Man Utd 2 - 1 Watford (PL)
Wolves 2 - 1 Man Utd (PL)
Man Utd 0 - 1 Barcelona (CL)
Man Utd 2 - 1 West Ham (PL)
Barcelona 3 - 0 Man Utd (CL)
Everton 4 - 0 Man Utd (PL)
Man Utd 0 - 2 Man City (PL)
Man Utd 1 - 1 Chelsea (PL)
Huddersfield 1 - 1 Man Utd (PL)
Last 11 games, 8 of them in PL. Looks terrible. At the same time, all teams except Everton, West Ham and Huddersfield are top notch competition (and not even Everton and West Ham are "easy" teams). I don't think there is much to make of this horrible run, except the fact that you meet hard teams... on top of this bad run of results, your self-esteem is rock bottom and you get results like those against Everton and Huddersfield...
I don't think I'd need stats to pick out what I think have been our best performances this season under Ole - Cardiff, Huddersfield, Bournemouth, Fulham, Arsenal, Chelsea and Liverpool for me were the six best games. I'd say West Ham, Spurs and Watford we probably should have lost. The rest were unconvincing but we did enough to win.
Re: the bolded bit - no we haven't. I have eyes in my head. The performances against Everton and Huddersfield - games that were completely crucial to the season - were worse than anything we saw under Mourinho. We are in the midst of our worst run of form for half a century. How can you possibly state that we've improved as a side beyond that honeymoon period?
We lost to Huddersfield, Brighton, Newcastle and West Brom last season. How does a draw vs Huddersfield classify as worse than anything seen under Mourinho? The Everton game was bad, but aside from the result there were plenty of times we looked equally poor under Mourinho.
Chelsea smashed us 4-0 in Conte's first season, and this season under Mou we got slapped 3-1 by City and Pool, Ole's results are definitely not the worst we've seen. Have people forgotten how under Moyes the top 4 smashed us every game!? Moyes literally beat no big teams.
I feel our group is rotten to the core and something negative is at play hence the change in performance. 100%
Hypothetically speaking is it possible that the band of three French speaking prima donna's are the ones who are purposely throwing games? I speak of Pogba, Martial & Lukaku.
Their efforts have been pathetic and I feel these three have a greater "pull" within the group then any of our coaches do. More so off field and behind closed doors.
Perhaps a revolt against our Spanish players? Or certain Chilean
Hypothetically speaking is it possible that the band of three French speaking prima donna's are the ones who are purposely throwing games? I speak of Pogba, Martial & Lukaku.
Their efforts have been pathetic and I feel these three have a greater "pull" within the group then any of our coaches do. More so off field and behind closed doors.
Perhaps a revolt against our Spanish players? Or certain Chilean
Are you comparing Huddersfield of last season with the Huddersfield of today? They have been relegated since March. They had lost 8 games on the bounce until they played us. And we were in a situation where we not only needed the 3 points, but also to add to our goal difference to have any chance of getting top 4. It was appalling.
So explain to me how losing 4-0 to Everton (currently in 8th place) is not worse than losing 4-0 to Chelsea, or 3-1 to City or Liverpool?
Well it is worse but, We also lost to Huddersfield, Brighton, Newcastle and West Brom last season. So it isn’t the worst it’s ever been. 4-0 MK DONS, out in the league cup to Sunderland under Moyes and Derby under Mou.
League games under Mourinho where the difference in xG compared with the opposition was equal or worse than the game vs Everton:
0-4 vs Chelsea (2016)
0-0 vs Southampton (2017)
0-0 vs Liverpool (2017)
3-1 vs Arsenal (2017)
0-2 vs Tottenham (2018)
3-2 vs City (2018)
1-3 vs Liverpool (2018)
and then once under Ole (the Everton game)
0-4 vs Chelsea (2016)
0-0 vs Southampton (2017)
0-0 vs Liverpool (2017)
3-1 vs Arsenal (2017)
0-2 vs Tottenham (2018)
3-2 vs City (2018)
1-3 vs Liverpool (2018)
and then once under Ole (the Everton game)
Exactly.So just imagine how difficult this job is.....I would argue that both of them were past their prime....I would argue that we need a manager who has the self confidence of an LVG/Mourinho,but someone who’s in his prime and remains committed to attacking football.
LVG and Mourinho were both fading managers who were past their prime when they joined us.Solksjaer is a nobody who’s going to get sacked by December next season...,When LVG and Jose couldn’t fix it(great resumes,but past their prime),good old Ole doesn’t have a hope in hell of getting it right....I hope I”m wrong,but I think i”ll turn out to be right....
I genuinely have no idea what these stats are attempting to prove? Are any of those results worse than losing 4-0 to Everton when we were on the brink of CL qualification?
We lost to York City under Fergie - can't really use cup results as a barometer. I think people would struggle to think of two worse performance/result combos under Mourinho than the recent games against Everton and Huddersfield.
That the performances under Ole haven't been "worse than anything seen under Mourinho".
God, this is like pulling teeth. Forget your beloved xG for a minute, and tell me what was worse under Mourinho than losing 4-0 to Everton when we needed a win, and drawing 1-1 to a side that has been on their summer holidays since getting relegated in March with 8 defeats on the trot (when we needed a win and goals)?
I just simply posted a list of games which the model identified as equally bad or worse in performance, I don't think that's too difficult to grasp. You don't agree with it - that's fine.
Feel free to read back the post match thread vs Southampton for example, perhaps you have forgotten how bad some of the games were: https://www.redcafe.net/threads/post-match-vs-southampton.435027/
I'm not asking for the use of a model, or for completely unquantifiable comments from a post-match thread. 4-0 to Everton ranks as our worst result for a very long time, and performance wise it was totally dire too. If you're saying that there were worse results and performances under Mourinho then which ones?
Your model failed to come up with a result that was worse than the Everton one, and it also includes nothing in the way of context. For instance, a 'must-win' game lost 4-0 is worse than if it was in a dead rubber with nothing to play for.
A lot of things need to change. A lot of people need to be thrown out the club.
OGS is pretty low down on the list of those that do. I feel he has enough love and respect for the club to walk if he feels the need.
Let’s back him until he deserves not to backed.
OGS is pretty low down on the list of those that do. I feel he has enough love and respect for the club to walk if he feels the need.
Let’s back him until he deserves not to backed.
Because we were woeful under Mourinho in 2018. Under Ole we create more chances, concede fewer, score more goals, get more points overall, etc. Improvement in all metrics. Obviously we've had a shit run and some shit results. Results were even worse under Mou though. Overall, when you take his entire time here into account, we've improved comparatively to anything we had under Mourinho in 2018.
Good post. I'm all for giving Ole a chance to grow over the summer and next season. Let's see what he's got. He walked into an impossible situation in December and did pretty damn well.
No, they were not anywhere near as bad as this current run. This is our worst form for a half a century.
Stop looking at one run of form. Ole's had 20 premier league games. Look at his overall impact.
Apparently, Ole winning his first 11 league games in charge was down to the 'new manager bounce' more than his ability to manage the team efficiently. Because, as you know, whenever a new manager takes over a club, he leads them to 11 straight league wins. Every single time.
Which begs the question, rather than go to the trouble of looking for a long-term manager, why don't we just recruit a new one every couple of months, wait for the NMB (yeah, we're abbreviating it now) to begin losing effect and then promptly sack him/replace him with whoever is available. Rinse and repeat. For eternity.
We'll call it the NMB effect, like the butterfly effect but without the butterflies and time travelling and the annoying Ashton Kutcher.
Underlying statistics and league table since Ole took over mid season. Anyone claiming there hasnt been an improvement is just flat out wrong. Performances have dropped with tougher games, and a loss of confidence among other issues has hampered other results as well, but on the whole, taking a full half season into account, theres been an improvement. Both in real results, and the xG.
xG table since Ole took over:
xG table for Mourinho's 17 games:
- xG shows that we've been the ~3rd best club in the league since Ole took over. 3rd most goals scored, 3rd most xG, 6th for xGagainst, 5th for goals conceded, 3rd most points, 3rd most expected points.
- xG basically showing that there was nothing unlucky about Mourinho's results. Just was shit.
xG table for Mourinho last season when we finished 2nd (but xG had us as the 6th best side):
- Shows how De Gea was godly and we conceded ~15 goals fewer then one would expect with our chances, while we scored about 9 more then we would expect with what our performances/creativity dictated. Led to us finishing 2nd and getting about 19 points more then you would expect with our chances, which is unheard of over performance.
Managers get sacked for poor runs of form all the time. What you were doing 4 or 5 months ago means bugger all if you're dropping like a stone.
Are you saying that the 'honeymoon period' or NMB - whichever you like - is not a phenomena seen over and over again in football? Clearly it would be wrong to say that's all it was, but it's a pretty major factor surely? Particularly when things had been so dysfunctional in the dressing room under the previous manager?
Good grief - since when did we start using xG as a replacement for our own senses? We can argue about the underlying reasons till the cows come home, but what my eyes (and my general sense coming from 35 years of watching football) tell me is that the first few games under Ole were excellent performances, the next few were decent but with a healthy dose of luck, then there were a few that we scraped through, then we started losing every tricky game we played, and then recently we've also been losing games that we should have won. Aside from the first 6 weeks (ish) our football has been nothing to write home about either. We're in the midst of our worse form for nearly 60 years. I don't think it is time for boasting about our 'improvement' - things are as a dire as they've ever been as far as I can see.
I don't have the statistics to hand, but I'm fairly certain a very low percentage of new football managers ever began their tenure with an 11 game winning streak, and certainly not in one of the toughest leagues in football.
I don't doubt the effect a new manager can have on a team, especially as down in the dumps as our lot were back then, but to steer them away from a side resembling midtable also-rans to one capable of winning 11 on the bounce, practically overnight, would not be possible unless you knew precisely what you were doing.
Otherwise, mere mortals such as you and I could do the same job as Ole in that situation to equal effect. Well, for the first 11 games anyway. We both know that isn't true, unfortunately.
How often does a top side actually change managers halfway through a season though? So a team that is on the brink of relegation is not very likely to win 11 games on the bounce, but their equivalent might be staying up. And we do see that sort of thing extremely regularly.
Let's be serious, we might have been 'resembling midtable also-rans' to use your phrase, but the same group of players had finished 2nd the year before, so it's not beyond the realms of possibility to see that a breath of fresh air, an arm around the shoulder and some words of support and encouragement from a United legend (which unfortunately neither you or I are) might have quite an effect?
Honeymoon period, coupled with some favourable fixtures, and a good dollop of luck could absolutely account for the vast majority of that run of wins.
Everything looks terrible in red so fixed the colors a bit and also removed the cup ties
In league last eight games: 2 wins, 4 losses and 2 draws. Yeah still disappointing I agree - especially considering what was at stake - but not unexpected nor is it as horrible as many in here makes it out to be when put into context. We were hit by both injuries and a hectic schedule and also matched against three of the top sides during that period and we still managed to snatch points in half the games played. I would never argue though that 8 points out of 24 is where we should be at - but keep in mind that this same team plus Fellaini only managed 26 points out of 51 prior to Ole's appointment and that they're now at 40 points out of 60 despite the drop in form.
And also - losses against Arsenal and Manchester City wasn't really shockers (and we looked good against Arsenal) - nor would I call a draw against Chelsea totally unheard of (also there we looked on par with them during the second half and way better during the first). As far as Wolves are concerned they must have changed their diet or soemthing these last couple of months because they've beaten everyone lately - I'm actually impressed by them - so to me the Everton and Huddersfield matches are the only ones really standing out as disastrous and way below expectations. Ane let's be fair about the Huddersfield game - it was definitely bad with too many players just loafing about - but they also got lucky. We had two clear-cut chances by Jones and Rashford ending up in orbit and near the corner flag - plus Pogba hit the crossbar twice and also missed the top corner by a fraction. And their goal came after a blunder (which has been the case far too often during this bad run) - they scored on Shaw's whateverthefeckthatwas - and by placing it between the legs of DeGea even (it was a lucky blunder followed by a poor finish which David would have saved probably seven out of ten times but as witnessed also when Chelsea equalized he's not his usual self these days).
I think people need to chill before falling into hysteria. Reservations are fine I too have a couple of those but to be blindly dismissive of this project as of now based on these last results alone - and not even putting them into context or bothering to properly analyze them - simply isn't justified. I'm pretty sure they would be way more forgiving if there was a more established manager in charge flashing the same overall improvement as Solskjær. Most of them are still hailing Pochettino as the second coming for instance despite Ole having done way better with another manager's team - one he's only inherited and not yet had a chance to properly impact - than Mauricio's managed with a team he's spent years building.
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Please please read this article
https://totalfootballanalysis.com/h...solskjaer-manchester-united-tactical-analysis
this article dated back to December 19th, not long after Ole appointed as interim.
I spent my last from 3 post quota to share this. Please read this, I promise you this is a good neutral article that might be how United will look in the future under Ole
https://totalfootballanalysis.com/h...solskjaer-manchester-united-tactical-analysis
this article dated back to December 19th, not long after Ole appointed as interim.
I spent my last from 3 post quota to share this. Please read this, I promise you this is a good neutral article that might be how United will look in the future under Ole
Well said
Great post. I agree with you.
How did he manage Molde? Was his management (philosophy / strategy) different between the two management periods?
I heard he played lots of different formations, but it was more about ensuring his team could switch for any match, rather than him not having a coherent plan?
How was he with recruitment? Did he find good buys? How was he at promoting youth? Did he restructure the club much - training, academy, etc?
How modern do you think his thinking was? Did he change tactics for each team, or did he look to inflict his own philosophy and style on them instead.
Unlike some, I don't discount his work for Molde. Everything is relative. He took on Rosenborg and won. That can't have been easy and it suggests he has more talent and more balls than a lot think.
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